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no_such_reality
ParticipantWe Are The Consumers…
Why do we (US) have to shoulder the weight of econ. growth of other nations?We support their growth quite willingly by being mass consumers of cheap products. For many in the USA, it’s a matter of keeping up with the neighbors and valuing quantity over quality.
If we make it ourselves, in the short term, it appears to cost more. i.e. a fan imported from China may cost $34.93 at Walmart, you probably can’t even find an American made fan anymore, and if you do, a large room size fan with current feature likely isn’t $34.
Sadly, in many cases we’re short sighted on it, we aren’t willing to pay $44 for a fan, but were perfectly willing to pay $34 every year or two and often look at many of the purchases in terms of lasting a year…
ParticipantCalifornia Franchise Tax Board.
Call me bitter, but I hope the Tax Board is taking notes that 10% of the cab medalion owners in SF live out of state. All profits of which are earned in State for *employees* and not contractors, thus TTBOMK, is taxable as California income. That includes the nurse in Nevada, her crash mate in Phoenix.
ParticipantI caught that too, and my impression was it was a lightly vieled reference to burying him there out of the country or at a minimum, seriously injure.
I wasn’t sure if asking which he liked better if she said ‘I’m going to f*ck you there on the otherside of the country’ or if she said ‘I’m going put you there on the otherside of the country’
ParticipantThe institutional lenders are going to get their asses kicked by the international markets and the government regulators
Really, right now, the international market can’t buy enough subprime mortgages.
ParticipantWhat kind of lunatic agrees to a $110,000 commission on a million dollar home?
Usually as the home price goes up, the commission as a percentage goes down.
ParticipantI found it insane that people would live in a 2500 sq ft house in Reno, come into San Fran 3 days a week to drive a cab and sleep in a mini-van in the parking lot of the cab company.
Or, buy a 3500 sq ft house in Nevada when your kids are grown and out of the house so you could fly into the bay area. The best part, her monthly expenses are now $2000/month higher! But, “we’ll own the house” She’s 57…
But my favorite was the fire captain in SF whose wife wouldn’t leave the 4200 sq. ft house in Minnesota.
ParticipantIt’ll bottom when it bottoms.
If you attempt to time it, if it isn’t like the last downturn, you’ll miss it or hop in on the slide.
If you want to live in the house, find one you like, the price is right, the loan terms are right and the alternative living options make it right in expense and lifestyle.
If you want it as an investment, then run the ROI and when it hits your number, buy.
ParticipantThere’s nothing to discuss.
you site an unnamed, unknown, “inside” source with a highly probable specious claim.
ParticipantStagnation.
From 1990 – 1995 we saw a recession then slow expansion of ~1% per year. Compared to real growth in the late 90s of nearly 3%/yr.
do you remember the job market in 1990, 1991, and 1992?
Year,
Nominal GDP(billions of dollars),
Nominal GDP per Capita(current dollars)
Real GDP per Capita
(2000 dollars)
1990 $5803.1 $23247 $28493
1991 $5995.9 $23701 $28067
1992 $6337.7 $24707 $28601
1993 $6657.4 $25613 $28981
1994 $7072.2 $26878 $29779
1995 $7397.7 $27782 $30163
1996 $7816.9 $29017 $30917
1997 $8304.3 $30458 $31922
1998 $8747.0 $31709 $32868
1999 $9268.4 $33215 $33939
2000 $9817.0 $34788 $34788
2001 $10128.0 $35524 $34692
2002 $10469.6 $36360 $34899
2003 $10960.8 $37693 $35424
2004 $11712.5 $39885 $36449
2005 $12455.8 $41974 $37232ParticipantKeep it. You’ve got a good rate, you like the house, and you’re planning on coming back.
To come out ahead, selling, the following needs to be true.
1. housing has to fall significantly both in real terms and nominally. I think this will happen, however, you need more than a 35% fall before you get to breakeven on selling costs and original price. That’s getting steep.
2. Rates have to fall another full percentage point after they’ve already fallen 1%.
3. You have to actually get it sold if you want to sell.
4. What you buy when you come back has to be in comparable shape to what you have today. I don’t think that’s likely.
ParticipantSorry PC, don’t buy it. I don’t accept poor lil homebuyer didn’t know what he or she was getting into. It’s really didn’t know and didn’t care what they were doing on the biggest purchase of their life.
ParticipantDM, somewhat right. While you have to like the place, you cannot discount the fact that it is a planned community with substanial common area. Common area that needs to be maintained by the HOA and the HOA dues from it. Those places that see the most wear and tear and least maintenance are those that have large number or investor/absentee owners.
It may be a good place now, but condos tend to fair much worse in a economic and RE downturn than SFH for decrease in quality of living. As PC pointed out, the pool fencing is already showing from the workmanship. Those new pool chairs will be worn and not replace. The gym equipment… the same etc. etc. etc.
ParticipantThis has been covered in the LA Times and other publications. The Baja area, particularly, Cabo and surrounds has had an identical price explosion to SoCal. In fact, it’s completely fueled by the US explosion.
ParticipantAny increase in interest rates, tightening of lending standards or slowing of the economy will all push buyers back to sustainable debt coverage (30% PITI ratio of income).
With median household income at ~$59,000, that’ll make max sustainable PITI coverage of $17,800/yr for a median household.
PITI coverage at current rates (6.25%) pushes home prices to $240K. If rates go to 8%, it pushes it to $200K.
Both are 50-60% below today.
Assuming people don’t have 20% down and use 80-10-10 financing. It pushes it to $210K at current rates and $180,000 at 8%. I used a 2% premium for the second mortgage.
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