Alan Gin admits there is a bubble?!?

[barnaby33]

Quoted from Ben’s site:

“‘During this big boom, a lot of people went into real estate,’ economist Alan Gin said. ‘I think there’s likely to be a shakeout there.’”

Now to Alans credit, he doesn’t come right out and say the ship is going down. I don’t see how can you claim there were lots of people going into the construction industry during a boom, then mention a shakeout without implying that lots of people are going to lose their jobs. Lots of people losing their jobs is called a recession.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Josh

[no_such_reality]

That’s not what he said, he said lots of people went into Real Estate. There will be a shakeout there.

RE and construction are not one and the same.

For who will be and is being shaken out, just tune to any of the house flipping for wild money shows on cable or grab the paper and attend one of the money full page ads for RE seminars…

[bob007]

why are folks on this board beating up on Alan Gins and David Leerahs of the world ? I would not know Alan Gin unless I read this board. If Bush can be President how bad can these guys be ? Do I detect a little bit of hatred ?

[PerryChase]

How can you not know Alan Gin and David Lereah? They are all over the news on real estate. Lereah is the Bush of the Real Estate industry. Gin is his surrogate in San Diego.

We are beating up on them because we’re sick of the spin. We, Piggingtons, know when we’re being lied to; but think of all the recent buyers who will soon be loosing their shirts in real estate. Many of those buyers bought because they had confidence in the “experts.”

[bob007]

I know David Lereah thanks to his numerous quotes. I said I would not know Alan Gin if not for this board. I do not live in San Diego and do not read the San Diego area newspapers.

If an individual listened to David Lereah the individual has to check his head. Individuals have responsibility for their own finances and their own decisions. Unless someone is committing fraud or misrepresenting facts you are responsible if you are buying an overpriced property.

[powayseller]

Josh did not berate Alan Gin, so why do you think he did? Anyway, if you live in San Diego, you would hear the name Alan Gin, as he is the main economist quoted in the newspaper, and interviewed on the radio. He forecasts the San Diego economy and reassures everyone the economy is vibrant and strong, and housing prices will keep going up.

[barnaby33]

No, no hatred what-so-ever. I just feel that responsible reporting about ones area of expertise requires more than boosterism. I have nothing against Mr Gin as a human being. Its solely about his role as Oracle of San Diego RE. David Lereah doesn’t claim not to be a shill for the industry Alan Does, and yet all through the bubble I never heard him once in all his PBS appearances discuss how unaffordable or crazy our RE market became. When I read his quote on Ben’s blog today I was suprised by the tone of it. Yes it didn’t in any way mention declines in pricing, I implied it.

Josh

[bob007]

mass media that broadcasts Hard Copy, Jerry Springer etc. can be hardily be responsible. Newspapers are declining in market share. A large portion of their articles are from AP, Reuters etc.

People have to use simple logic to figure out house prices. A lot of well educated engineers have bought homes on ARMs and interest only loans gambling on continued appreciation of houses. They may be making financially stupid decisions in this case. But they are neither stupid or naive.

[barnaby33]

Not sure what you are saying, but how does that affect my negative sentiment on mr Gin’s boosterism?

Josh

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