[no_such_reality]

Living hell. 🙂

You’re either snake trailing the 76 or going in the cattle shute of the 15-78-5.

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PBB, the one potential flaw is the use of OE Rent. It seems that the number may be influenced by what the owner thinks it’ll rent for and not what they are actually rented for.

For La Jolla, it wouldn’t surprise me that 17x-20X is normal. SFRs, particularly larger SFRs with yards are on the high end of the ratio anyway. The typical 8-13X is more appropriate for small multi-unit dwellings duplex,triplex, fourplex. SFRs are strange beasts since they really aren’t a consistent rental market.

The higher rate is justified by the perceived quality of the cash flow and potential upside or reduced downside of capital preservation and expenses. iow, you’re not expecting your La Jolla rental family to kick holes in the wall, get covered in graffiti or turn in to a meth lab.

On the other hand, I think Condos compete nicely and directly against larger apartment complex units. Hence a rental comparison is more appropriate.

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Rates won’t hit 15% because inflation isn’t going to be double digits.

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I thought the analogy was great.

imagine Mr. Sells-a-lot shock when Mom doesn’t give Bobby the quarter and Bobby doesn’t come back for another car either…

Of course, there is one complete piece of truth in the analogy. The sucker variable pricing scheme only works when the buyers are thinking like a child for managing their money and their wants.

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Interestingly though, both resale condos and SFRs are both down slightly over 4% from peak.

Obviously the builders are giving up the ghost on the new home sales.

If October slides like September did, the January numbers may be interesting. There’s a psychological tipping point just past 10% lower from here. Another 10% down and SFRs fall back below $500,000.

[no_such_reality]

There are two and only two long term values to a house:

Good point, however in our consumer nation, the emphasis is on image, not substance. Hence, housing is about ego and not value.

If the housing market corrects and drives image back out of the equation, then housing will return to a value proposition. Until then, 3500 sq ft. executive homes will be the norm.

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CDS and Treasury notes are sucker bets for anybody that isn’t counting down their pile to the end of their days.

If you got a CD two years ago at less than 5.75% compounded, today, you have less buying power after paying for taxes than you did two years ago.

In the end, you’re either going to be out to early, in too late or miss the getting out anyway. Your transaction fees, and slush will leave you behind someone that just parked their money in a spider.

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CDs, yes. Stocks, no: how will you know when to get out?

How will you know when to get in?

Simple fact, market timers underperform the market.

Fact #2, CD subtracting taxes and inflation, essentially a zero sum game.

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Frankly, he’s what is horribly wrong with our country.

He and his brethen will walk away from this mess, essentailly bankrupt before, merely bankrupt after, with a smile and a tsk tsk.

IMHO, the FBI should track him down, and everybody in the shading wink and nod deals he put together and make them the poster boys for interstate fraud charges.

[no_such_reality]

By rolling over, I mean what you’re thinking about doing at the end of year. If another card is available, flip it to that so you can use it again for another year “free”.

So far, you aren’t doing what the others are doing. You’re doing just the initial arbitrage. How you turn out will depend on how good you are at managing your 0% end date.

You’re grabbing a free $1200-$1300 on pretty much a one shot deal. Basically if nothing is available in the last month, you’ll hopefully close out before it kicks to regular credit card interest with $23K on it. So, yeah, seems like an easy $1000 or so. but…

As you said, lots of tricks, and I suspect when people juggle multiple cards, use auto-pay, to carry and transfer between several cards to keep it going year to year. I suspect the oopsie, looks like 0% expired last month, or the ah, I missed the xfer fee to catch up…

In your case, if you walk away, after Fed and Cali taxes, you’ll probably bring home an extra $70/month or so.

hey, $70 is $70. I can understand. I’m talking more about the person has $25K spread on three cards to do it. Six balance xfers a year to keep rolling forward, 36 monthly minimum payments, to do what? Make $100/month before taxes?

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bagel shop in Carmel Valley say, “Yeah, maybe housing prices will level off, but people NEVER sell for less than what they paid!”

ahem, she’s basically right. People don’t sell for less than what they paid. Only when absolutely forced to does the average person do so. Even most investors won’t. And in the end, the majority of SD buyers are still regular people that will hold until the bitter end and they can get out for what they paid for it. Otherwise, the bank is going to have to take it back.

Prices may fall, they may collapse, but liquidity will go with it. Frankly, given how illiquid housing is even in a normal market, I think the non-liquidity once the contraction gets going is going to make it look like the Gobi.

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Beebo, you’re missing the point. At today’s prices, a typical single family detached home in the IE is running $1400 a month in TAXES, Insurance, Mello Roos and HOA payments.

That $1400 is $16,800 a year in TAXES and fees. It is in Riverside, where the median household income is less than $56,000 a year.

That means Taxes and HOA fees alone on these houses exceeds 30% of the Gross median family income for the county.

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Hmm, it’ll work as long as the stick with the Paris Hilton wannabees getting their comeuppence. As soon as they hit the Average Sixpack family not affording the American dream, they’re DOA.

Luckily, there’s no shortage of people flying the extreme high-life to film. The message will be lost on Joe & Jane Doe that boozing it up on Krystal and buying a monster truck are one and the same.

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Oil is up from two years ago. Whoopie. here’s the fact, even with oil at $70/bl, US business could still drive a profit. Oil and energy is down from that point.

Employment earnings are stable.

Housing is STABLE. Down a percent or two is noise and given 20% appreciation, is trivial.

The Fed is supposed to blow the horn on inflation, it’s a future threat, but stable. It isn’t run away, it is getting pushed by commodities. It’s manageable. Which is exactly what you want with inflation.

Your doom & gloom PS, is irrational pessimism.

[no_such_reality]

Anyway, I’m just wondering why the stock market is going up?

1. Earnings are looking up. (Good)
2. Oil and energy costs are down. (Good)
3. Inflation looks to stay tame. (Good)
4. Terrorism looks to stay tame. (Good)
5. Housing looks to be tame. (Good)

Really, this board is way to pessimistic on the death spiral of woe caused by the implosion of housing.

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