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I find it inexcuseable. It’s the sub-prime market and 1.65% of single years volume BK’d these guys.

What’s the typical default rate for sub-prime? About 1 in 8. At a FICO score of 700, it’s still 1 in 123.

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The purpose of the 80/20 loans or 80/15/5-down or 80/10/10 is to avoid PMI on the 80% loan. PMI may or may not be on the 2nd, however with 2nd climbing to the $100K range, I’d be surprised if they still aren’t.

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I think Mello Roos actually go up in a down market.

Builders are less willing to finance the fluff and instead attempt to shove more stuff into the bonds the community carries.

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I saw that article, complete fluff piece.

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Yeah, they don’t sell… even with an auction. See the discussion from October here.

A search of Bressi Ranch would bring it right up on the results.

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Mainline apartments were going up because of high occupancy. The rent “average” which is a polling of mainline large apartment complexes also report increases.

However, like others pointed out, what’s actually happening may be quite different. In OC, the rents have gone up according to the average, however, that is only after IAC others have added major new developments on the high end.

Like for like units may not. In my townhome complex, I’ve been eyeing another place, the exact same floorplan that is up for rent.

The owner wants 15% more than I’m currently paying in rent. The listing and signs went up early October. The tenant moved out on the last weekend of Oct. It is still empty. The owner has repainted, added new carpeting and looks (through window since it’s empty) like possibly a new stove.

Since he’s two months empty and going, he’s at least 4% below my current landlords rental rate due to vacancy and quickly heading towards 15%.

[no_such_reality]

I’m 99% sure that it was not a fair

No offense to the realtors on the board whom appear to do good researcg, but less face facts, the average RE licensee out there is neither that bright nor that motivated to determine what the ‘right’ price is for a home.

The majority are simply focused on getting their “client” into a property. I can walk into 10 open houses next weekend and 8 or 9 of the agents argue with me that the market isn’t that soft, that prices are holding, that renting is throwing my money away and that at $899,999 the 3bd 2 ba cracker box needing work is a steal…

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Must be a flipper that bellied up. It’s the only way I account for a NOD going at 13 months. Fraud typically rolls in with a NOD at 6 to 9 months for a 1st payment default.

I was reading the real estate ads today. The pyschology is completely shifting. “Foreclosure pending” “Motivated Seller” etc.

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I don’t want to submit an offer. I’m concerned it might get accepted.

The market is on too unstable of footing for my taste at the moment. My concern is the housing market is like all the people with the Wii’s that are up for sale on Ebay today (Dec 22nd). At 4PM, what’s the guy that didn’t sell it at $450 because it didn’t meet his reserve got? A Wii, maybe two… what are the Wii’s worth on ebay the day after Christmas?

Unfortunately, many SoCal house sellers haven’t figure out that its the day before Christmas eve and there isn’t a postman on shining jeep to deliver them from their Wii.

[no_such_reality]

As first time buyers, I may have missed something

Yep, your current rent is $2000. Not $2800. That’s $9600 a year more. Your place versus buyer = $16,600 a year and counting.

Also, any chance of moving? Cost of selling… 6% plus carpet, paint, etc. ~$42,000+ or $6000/$7000 over 7 years. Possible $25,000 a year more if you move in 7 years or less.

Also, maintenance seems light. That’s $100 a month. It might be a new place, but as a home owner, a $100 run to Home Depot seemed to be common.

Does the wife want to “decorate” … $$$

Got all the Christmas, Halloween, decorations? $$$ Not as easy not participating if all the neighbors do.

Got furniture for new space?

As nesters, is the nest currently filled with Fledglings? Is it about to be? If not, in SD I find it hard to below you can’t get and keep a pretty nice place for $2000 or less.

[no_such_reality]

Yeah, I’m wondering what percentage of the 50%+ of all buyers “prime” borrowers got the higher risk payment option, interest only, etc ARMs or a long teaser ARM and run the heighten risk of default.

If the majority got the risky ARMs and default at 1/10th the rate of the subprime borrowers, we’re looking at 1 in 15 of all buyers in the last two years ending in foreclosure. If the rate is half the default rate of subprime, that rises to 1 in 10.

During the bottom of the last cycle, the foreclosure rate peaked at about 1% (1 in 100).

With roughly 100,000 homes sold in the last two years, that puts roughly 5% of current monthly volume up for foreclosure every month for the next four years.

FDIC examins rise in foreclosure trend

[no_such_reality]

The big swing on the calculators is always the assumption on home appreciation.

If you finance the whole thing, the difference is as previously pointed out, ~$1800/month. Not including Mello Roos, Maintenance, Insurance…

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1 in 5 of a quarter of the market.

The thing that I’m looking at is subprime is only a qaurter of the market. In SD, 60%- 80% of the borrowers in the last two years used some form of ARMs, whether, normal, exploding or exotic (option).

Will the 35-55% of the market that isn’t subprime but potentially used subprimed styled ARM loans have the same or close to the same behavior as the subprime? An ARM isn’t an ARM, what percentage of the 80% of ARMs were exotics/options? I’d guess the majority if not almost universal.

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I tend to agree with some of realtors on the board that argue real prices on like for like homes are in reality down 20% already.

I suspect next year, those like for likes will be down 3-5% and then following year the same. The slow down in price drop will come from what we’re already seeing, which is homes being pulled off the market. I don’t see bank’s getting aggressive

Too many are already finding they can’t sell their home and will need to fight it out and get creative refinancing to delay so they don’t “give their home away” to some low-ball buyer.

Using standard median, I suspect we’ll see a steepening of the loss as the median has been buffered by the last of the move up buyers.

[no_such_reality]

I wish I could ask them “would you rather restructure the loan for this guy or lose $50K or $200K of your investment by having to sell it at auction?”

I think they know the trough they’ve been dining at pretty well. I saw the SecureAdvantage loan ad from Quicken in the paper this morning. With an 80% LTV, the rate is 6.5% with a minimum payment of 3.5%/year. So a 300K loan is min payment $875. Regular $1896. I wonder how much the rate and minimum payment goes up as you exceed 80% LTV.

Unfortunately, I suspect they know that the buyers can only really afford the minimum, any restructering merely delays the inevitable and potentially increases their loss.

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