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no_such_reality
ParticipantActually… I’ve been catching the reruns/reproductions. They’re following up with the rushed ones from last year when they did “I’ll make $$$ but the house didn’t sell before airing”, things didn’t turn out so rosy.
ParticipantIt lasted six years because prices where less distorted and hence more sticky on the down side. It took about four or five of those years to get price back to reality. Another year or two for the people to realize that prices actually swung to the point were it was cheaper buying that renting.
This time, things will be different. In 15 years, we’ll be able to look back and see the clear trend down, but with prices being so over extended and volatile, our dead cat bounces may be rather long mini-rallies extending the duration out a decade or we may plummet like a rock with the builders leading the way with new homes and REOs being the hammer driving resales down.
We know today’s price, we know inflation from peak until now, we have an idea of today’s income, but more concrete numbers may be 3, 6, or 12 months away. We can guess at inflation until next January, incomes is more in the air,
ParticipantActually, there a lot of good info here. As SD R and AN point out, traffic appears up at 4S, as OC renter points out, 4S courtesy of the builder has already peeled off ~25% from their pricing.
The bottom may be coming up faster than we’d thought. The resales in 4S will get tanked by new sales. More house, more yard, and 25% less money. Ouch, glad I’m not competing with that to sell my place.
ParticipantOuch, is right. If the foreclosure numbers maintain just this volume, not sure how the market will react to having over 10% of the sales volume being REOs that need to be cleared from the books in the next few months.
ParticipantIt’s a monopoly/oligopoly thing. Basically, when you have only a few that handle almost all of the housing in a neighborhood, they have pricing power. They also can create the psychology in the neighborhood. You can look at comps that say $800K all you want, but if there are ten homes in the neighborhood with one or two realtors that have them all listed between $950K an $1.1M, most buyers will start to mentally equate $950K with the low end of that market.
It’s a lot like an ipod, if you want the Apple label and not a comparable machine, you’re stuck paying MSRP, which is basically Apple’s Wish Pricing which they can currently enforce.
ParticipantTake the fraudsters out and you don’t get 10-15% annual jumps. Take the 10-15% annual jumps from the fraudsters out and all the speculators don’t pile in creating 20-25% annual gains. Take the 20-25% annual gains out and the vacant homes that are on the market with speculators and apartment vacancies don’t fall to the low single digits which promotes rent increases. Take the increases out and you strip away the idiotic $3000/month Craigslist ads for two bedroom condos downtown. Unwind of all it and there would be minor pressure on prices and rents and prices would be half of today.
ParticipantOC Scam, my only thought is sit back, wait for the bank, don’t pay back rent to the bank and then negotiate a rent reduction once the bank forecloses.
Did you ask your lawyer if anybody can legally claim your rent escrow account if the people landlording are multiple count rent skimming?
ParticipantThere are NO houses for sale comprable in the 300k price range- unless you are looking for a house in Watts, that’s ridiculous.
Give it time, at the rate that fraud, foreclosure, and tightening credit are unraveling the market, if they peaked at $515K, they may see the $250s before 2010.
ParticipantI’ll correct me, it’s 22.5% my math is rusty today. That’s right in line with what I’ve been reading.
ParticipantBut 515k to 399k, what percentage drop is that
26.5% which, if you follow previous very good posts by SD Realtor in other threads puts it about 6% more than like for like homes selling earlier last fall. The median was down ~8% last year, but the reality is that median is better homes selling for less.
SD R, correct me if I’m misqouting.
ParticipantHow did she go from owning the home “free and clear” to losing it? She must have made NO lifestyle changes after the divorce. Pity.
I would guess that *they* owned it free and clear. *She* then wanted to keep the house and had to pay him half at the overinflated Dallas market pricess. She then errored in taking an HELOC to pay for it.
ParticipantIt actually might even come in @515k, the offer was 85% of the 469k price. REAL dirt cheap.
I’m not following. The seller put it up at $469K right? 85% of $469, is basically $399.
In the SD market, 15% off asking price is completely fair for an opening offer. A counter and you can reach agreement at 10% below asking price, which used to be normal.
ParticipantHaving thought about it some more talk to a lawyer specializing in representing tenants.
At the moment, you’re stuck in the middle of an ugly mess and you need to get legal representation to protect yourself and recoup your $4400 of rent/deposit, moving costs and now legal fees. It’s roughly three months of living in the place, but you’ll want to stay on the right side of the law.
More importantly, representation now addressing the accused rent skimmers may prevent them from pulling further fraud with your information. You are a ripe target with excellent credit and they likely have all your info from your rental application. You’ll need to add a credit watch and instant notification of any applications to your credit.
ParticipantKeep in mind the offer he got.
Home is “valued” at $500K.
It is listed for $469K.
Offer was $85K below asking or $384K?
Offered (one only) $384K on a home “valued” at $500K with a luandry list of fix its.
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