[no_such_reality]

There is miles and miles of nothing in between temecula and san diego.

There is?

Hmm, seem to be about 3 miles to Fallbrook. That’s center of town Fallbrook. And about 1.5 miles to the canyon roads and all the homes built off of Mission Rd. Winterwarm, San luis Rey, Ranch Bernardo, Escondido, Poway,Carmel Valley, Del Mar, heck, it’s one long suburban strip with little pocket of too be built land.

[no_such_reality]

From the article: In a June 7 court filing, Grossman argued that Stonewood and Montecastro shouldn’t be responsible for investors with “unclean hands” who knowingly signed false or incomplete documents.

Sadly, while I suspect the accused is likely quite shady, I suspect the “investors” gladly went down the rabbit hole committing little white frauds of their own the whole way.

[no_such_reality]

From the article: In a June 7 court filing, Grossman argued that Stonewood and Montecastro shouldn’t be responsible for investors with “unclean hands” who knowingly signed false or incomplete documents.

Sadly, while I suspect the accused is likely quite shady, I suspect the “investors” gladly went down the rabbit hole committing little white frauds of their own the whole way.

[no_such_reality]

That’s easy. It’ll be acknowledged as a slump and possibly past bubble bust about two years into the next bull cycle when people can look back and refer to them as the bad old days.

RE data is so opague that it’s easy to continually dice the statistics to show anything you want to show. In the mean time, markets will just need to work off a little excess inventory caused by:

A) evil speculators fleeing the market.
B) evil banks toxic loans for good hard working Americans.
C) evil scammers commiting massive fraud robbing poor hard
working Americans.
D) evil foreign investors pushing interest rates ups.
E) evil hedge funds over extending themselves and crashing
the CDO market drying up easy credit
F) evil subprime lenders for corrupting the whole process.
G) evil RE moguls promoting RE riches which they make
through “education” or book royalties because it’s
easier than their own programs.
H) evil President Bush for the goldilock’s economy and the
massive job losses that “came out of nowhere”
I) evil bloggers creating a climate of fear for RE and
scaring buyers out of the market.
J) evil major media for all those scare stories cropping up
pushing buyers out of a “good” market.
K) evil Bill Bernake for not maintaining the eminent Alan
Greenspan’s low interest rates and inverted yield curve.
L) evil home builders for selling new homes “below market!”
M) evil low-ballers for insultingly low offers.
N) evil REO offices for dumping foreclosures “below market!”
O) evil loan officers who say I don’t have the income.
P) evil bank appraisers who don’t appraise high enough for
me to refiance.
Q) evil agent who promised me it would sell for more!
R) evil new builder who bought the land option and is
building bigger cheaper homes!
S) evil loss mitigation department for not giving me a
payment plan I could afford. What’s wrong with $1000
a month for a $700,000 home!
T) evil mortgage broker who says my debt to income is
too high!
U) evil mello roos, it’s not fair I have them and others
don’t!
V) evil property tax collector, it’s not fair people
owning longer pay way less than me!
W) evil neighbor, how dare they “give their home away”!
X) evil landlords how can they rent so cheap!
Y) evil bitter renters! Don’t they know owning is the
American dream?!?!?!
Z) evil bank! They took my home away!

Sorry for the new ABCs.

[no_such_reality]

That’s easy. It’ll be acknowledged as a slump and possibly past bubble bust about two years into the next bull cycle when people can look back and refer to them as the bad old days.

RE data is so opague that it’s easy to continually dice the statistics to show anything you want to show. In the mean time, markets will just need to work off a little excess inventory caused by:

A) evil speculators fleeing the market.
B) evil banks toxic loans for good hard working Americans.
C) evil scammers commiting massive fraud robbing poor hard
working Americans.
D) evil foreign investors pushing interest rates ups.
E) evil hedge funds over extending themselves and crashing
the CDO market drying up easy credit
F) evil subprime lenders for corrupting the whole process.
G) evil RE moguls promoting RE riches which they make
through “education” or book royalties because it’s
easier than their own programs.
H) evil President Bush for the goldilock’s economy and the
massive job losses that “came out of nowhere”
I) evil bloggers creating a climate of fear for RE and
scaring buyers out of the market.
J) evil major media for all those scare stories cropping up
pushing buyers out of a “good” market.
K) evil Bill Bernake for not maintaining the eminent Alan
Greenspan’s low interest rates and inverted yield curve.
L) evil home builders for selling new homes “below market!”
M) evil low-ballers for insultingly low offers.
N) evil REO offices for dumping foreclosures “below market!”
O) evil loan officers who say I don’t have the income.
P) evil bank appraisers who don’t appraise high enough for
me to refiance.
Q) evil agent who promised me it would sell for more!
R) evil new builder who bought the land option and is
building bigger cheaper homes!
S) evil loss mitigation department for not giving me a
payment plan I could afford. What’s wrong with $1000
a month for a $700,000 home!
T) evil mortgage broker who says my debt to income is
too high!
U) evil mello roos, it’s not fair I have them and others
don’t!
V) evil property tax collector, it’s not fair people
owning longer pay way less than me!
W) evil neighbor, how dare they “give their home away”!
X) evil landlords how can they rent so cheap!
Y) evil bitter renters! Don’t they know owning is the
American dream?!?!?!
Z) evil bank! They took my home away!

Sorry for the new ABCs.

[no_such_reality]

The fact there are a lot of jobs there is no relevant. So does places like Irvine but homes in Irvine fail in comparison to Newport and home prices in Irvine do not affect prices in Newport.

ROFL.

[no_such_reality]

The fact there are a lot of jobs there is no relevant. So does places like Irvine but homes in Irvine fail in comparison to Newport and home prices in Irvine do not affect prices in Newport.

ROFL.

[no_such_reality]

It depends on what you’re renting and where exactly it is at.

Two checks are craigslist. For a four bedrooms, high 2000s look doable. There are only 14 listed, but only two are higher than your rent, one wants $12,000/month for their “executive” home and the other wants $5750 (can you say please pay my mortgage?).

If you’re in a four or five bedroom and it isn’t spectacular, you’re probably paying too much. If you’re in a 3 bedroom, you are paying too much. Probably $1500/month too much.

The second is rentometer.com. They come in high IMHO. They use advertised prices.

Here’s the rent meter for Encinitas with 4 bedrooms selected.
Rentometer 4bd

For 3 bedrooms: link

[no_such_reality]

It depends on what you’re renting and where exactly it is at.

Two checks are craigslist. For a four bedrooms, high 2000s look doable. There are only 14 listed, but only two are higher than your rent, one wants $12,000/month for their “executive” home and the other wants $5750 (can you say please pay my mortgage?).

If you’re in a four or five bedroom and it isn’t spectacular, you’re probably paying too much. If you’re in a 3 bedroom, you are paying too much. Probably $1500/month too much.

The second is rentometer.com. They come in high IMHO. They use advertised prices.

Here’s the rent meter for Encinitas with 4 bedrooms selected.
Rentometer 4bd

For 3 bedrooms: link

[no_such_reality]

The Euro-Zone Bond Market. Same size, more currency stability than the US. As a fixed income, that’s what I’d want.

[no_such_reality]

The Euro-Zone Bond Market. Same size, more currency stability than the US. As a fixed income, that’s what I’d want.

[no_such_reality]

When people are stretching themselves as tight as possible to make a $2600 or a $4500 a month payment, yes $50-$100 more is a lot.

I don’t think you’re following me. Our prices aren’t where they are at because we can pay $2600 for a townhome instead of a $2650. Or pay $4500 instead fo $4600 for La Costa.

It’s because we can pay $1250 for the townhome and $2500 for La Costa courtesy of the low teasers and Option ARMs.

A few will drop out as that $2600 goes to $2650 because they were really planning on $2400. And I agree, even minor rate increases wrecks new home developments. But for housing in general, 80% of the homes haven’t been using conventional loans.

The switch from non-conventional to conventional funding isn’t a $50/month hop, it’s a $1500 to $2500 a month increase. And that will drop 80% of the buyers out of the market.

[no_such_reality]

When people are stretching themselves as tight as possible to make a $2600 or a $4500 a month payment, yes $50-$100 more is a lot.

I don’t think you’re following me. Our prices aren’t where they are at because we can pay $2600 for a townhome instead of a $2650. Or pay $4500 instead fo $4600 for La Costa.

It’s because we can pay $1250 for the townhome and $2500 for La Costa courtesy of the low teasers and Option ARMs.

A few will drop out as that $2600 goes to $2650 because they were really planning on $2400. And I agree, even minor rate increases wrecks new home developments. But for housing in general, 80% of the homes haven’t been using conventional loans.

The switch from non-conventional to conventional funding isn’t a $50/month hop, it’s a $1500 to $2500 a month increase. And that will drop 80% of the buyers out of the market.

[no_such_reality]

Mortgage rate movements slowly push people out of the market. Dramatic rate moves push more, but rates typically trickle up/down 1/8th or 1/4 pt.

Even at our highly leveraged point, a 1/2 pt. move only requires an extra $140/month. If the seller gives a little (2.5%) and the buyer sucks it up a little ($50/month) you get the same payment. IMHO, the bulk of people buy based on payment, not potential capital outlay.

Interest rates can move from 6.5% to 8.5% and long term payment after taxes are the same if the price comes down 10%. In my experience, people aren’t going to overly quibble about an extra $50/month on a payment that is already $2600. If interest rates rocket to 10%, a 20% price drop puts everything back to par on payments, both before and after income tax breaks.

Interest rate hikes aren’t going to crash the bubble, credit tighening and lack of appreciation will prevent people from getting 1% loans that will crash the bubble.

[no_such_reality]

Mortgage rate movements slowly push people out of the market. Dramatic rate moves push more, but rates typically trickle up/down 1/8th or 1/4 pt.

Even at our highly leveraged point, a 1/2 pt. move only requires an extra $140/month. If the seller gives a little (2.5%) and the buyer sucks it up a little ($50/month) you get the same payment. IMHO, the bulk of people buy based on payment, not potential capital outlay.

Interest rates can move from 6.5% to 8.5% and long term payment after taxes are the same if the price comes down 10%. In my experience, people aren’t going to overly quibble about an extra $50/month on a payment that is already $2600. If interest rates rocket to 10%, a 20% price drop puts everything back to par on payments, both before and after income tax breaks.

Interest rate hikes aren’t going to crash the bubble, credit tighening and lack of appreciation will prevent people from getting 1% loans that will crash the bubble.

[Author]

Posts