[Myriad]

Then there’s the new ruling from the IRS. If you max out your 401k, any excess after-tax contributions can be automatically rolled into a roth IRA at distribution.
Basically another backdoor way to a Roth IRA if your income is past the limits.

[Myriad]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/where-rich-chinese-are-stashing-their-cash-americas-hotels-and-strip-malls-1449556200

Another article about investing in hotels

[Myriad]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=yuhtey][quote=joec]In today’s UT:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/dec/06/tp-home-sellers-look-east-carlsbad-website-taps/
I couldn’t find any CFD’s in LA County … anywhere.

It has a far more diversified job base and is much better-planned than SD County is. That $599K avg price for new construction represents an attached condo price in 2015.[/quote]

Considering most of LA was built up before the late 80’s, why would there be CFDs?
Oh? I’m curious what way you find LA County better planned than SD County? Certainly can’t be the traffic or the limited public transit east of DTLA.

[Myriad]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-pull-back-from-u-s-property-investments-1448649226

This article says “Chinese Pull Back From U.S. Property Investments. The nation’s economic and stock-market slump puts buyers on the sidelines”

I wonder which paper is more up to date?

[Myriad]

I don’t think that’s correct. According to this article, Ballast Point had $51.7M in revenue and profit of $5.9M. in 1H 2015. Let’s say they make 1.5x that in 2015 for a total of $125M Revenue and $10M in profit (being generous).

That means the Price/Sales is 8 and a P/E of 100. THat seems really expensive to me.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/constellation-brands-to-buy-craft-beer-maker-for-1-billion-1447686489

[Myriad]

True, but there are a lot of people that buy those cars used. And the used cars don’t usually have as good service coverage as the new cars.

[Myriad]

Yeah, hard to believe a Lexus IS 350 F Sport will be worth $18k at 12 years.
I thought the problem with the IS-F was the extra weight compared to M4 and that M4 has a better torque profile.
There’s a lot to be said about lighter cars. I have a 135i as a weekend car and it’s fun to drive, but it’s still pretty heavy. Plenty of power for normal driving and normal+ driving on local roads.

What I find crazy is people driving M3/M4s and similar cars as daily commutes. So you get to spend all the maintenance associated with the car yet be limited to 50-60mph on non-freeway with all the traffic.

[Myriad]

Concur, I think at 41, you need to have more in retirement, unless you got a great pension plan.
So at 40 and with $135k salary, you should have at least 2 times that in retirement savings.
Not sure why you have $300k in cash, doesn’t seem like a good allocation in capital.

But it you want to be conservative and have $50k on hand for emergencies, that leaves $30k out of the original $300k.

Not sure how much savings you net/year, but you probably have enough to buy the car, especially if you keep it for a long time.
Of course, if you have kids or decide to buy a house, then you probably don’t have enough.

[Myriad]

While Intel has had substantial losses in the Mobile group, Mobile and IOTs are a must do for Intel. One the main reasons to supply 40+M tablets is to build the distribution chain and to target lower cost producers in China. At the higher end, the new tablet processors are power/performance competitive with Apple/QCOM, especially with the die shrink to 14nm and introduction of 3D transistors into the lower end processors.

Their main weakness has been the RF integration into a SOC, which is QCOMs main strength. However, Intel has been investing heavily into this area and QCOM is not as strong on 4G and later than at 3G.

To me, the argument about ARM vs Intel/x86 is reminiscent of the RISC vs CISC debate decades ago (or various AMD vs Intel iterations). Won’t play out the exact same way, of course, and it will take a number of years. However, what Intel is doing is similar – They are investing in improved design, utilizing their production advantage (technology and production capability), and maximizing their financial advantage.

As someone told me many years ago, Intel has excellent technology/designs, but the true advantage is their production processes, technology, and capacity. They might not be able to out-design you all the time, but they can out-produce you.

Disclosure: I have a long position on Intel stock.

Some interesting links:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/8475/intels-core-m-strategy-cpu-specifications-for-9mm-fanless-tablets

http://www.anandtech.com/show/8367/intels-14nm-technology-in-detail

http://www.anandtech.com/show/8510/idf-2014-intel-demonstrates-skylake-due-h22015

[Myriad]

The issue regarding speculation and leverage isn’t so much about interest rates as capital requirements for institutions to lend money. If the capital requirements are tighter, then there will be less opportunities for leverage as those institutions would have to hold more in reserve.
Of course, that doesn’t really help the Fed as they are also concerned about the money supply and velocity also.

Another consequence to savers of deflation is negative interest rates. The Swiss are now asking for -1.25% for 3 month Libors.

[Myriad]

There’s really no evidence that deflation is going to help workers improve their lives. Spain is a good example. Not sure 50% unemployment for people under 30 is really that great. Nothing like a lost generation of youth to screw a few score of speculators.

Europe’s benefits looks ok at the moment, but wait another 10-20 years. Their issues with entitlements looks way worse than the US.

For the balance to shift back to workers, what’s needed is higher labor cost growth outside the US, increased employment, and more middle-tiered skills jobs in the US. At the end of the day, it’s supply and demand.

[quote=spdrun]Overly rapid industrialization of third-world pestholes, impacting the global environment.[/quote]

Why wouldn’t other countries try to get to the same quality of life as 1st world countries?

[Myriad]

Like another world war or limited nuclear conflict?
Innovation won’t stop, it will just take a different form.

[Myriad]

Concur with The-Shoveler. The entire western financial system is based on long term debt. If the entire world went deflationary, that system would collapse.

If money in the future was worth more, why would any bank or individual lend money? Hence the deflationary spiral and why the Fed and other central banks will do anything to stop deflation.

Yeah, it might make goods cheaper in the short term, but do you really want to risk a collapse and a severe economic depression?

2008-9 was the closest we got in recent times to the banking system collapsing. A real collapse would put everyone in a much worse situation, especially those on this board…

What’s the point of owning rental property if renters can’t afford to pay. And you wouldn’t be able to evict them lest you get lynched by a mob…

[Myriad]

So like CA Renter indicated, the primary decision should be whether you want to eventually move back to SD.
If not, then the decision on whether you would rent or sell the house should be dependent on Return on Equity & capitalization rate based upon the current selling price of the home. Since no one can predict the future value of housing in the short term, long term investment timeframe should be considered for real estate. In addition, the balance between real estate investments vs other investments should be considered.

Other investments may be as tax efficient and provide dividends equal to the rental income as well as potential capital gains.

[Myriad]

Hah, I thought this thread was for a different type of “unlicensed.” That was an entirely different connotation and questionable legality.

[Author]

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