[LA_Renter]

I have a feeling we are going into a recession induced bear market, which is the worst kind. They are longer in average duration, represent some of the deepest declines, and are indifferent to starting P/E multiples which for the S&P 500 shows a current trailing P/E ratio of 15.6 which is really not all that bad especially compared to 2000 when it was approaching 30. If we are heading in such a direction then the first half of 2008 will not be pleasant due to the majority of the stock market losses occurring early in these types of markets. We are in a dense economic fog right now and the markets don’t like fog.

Here is a little history of recession induced bear markets for the S&P 500 with their starting P/E and percentage drop in value

1973 starting P/E 18, -45%

1978 starting P/E 9, -16%

1981 starting P/E 8, -24%

1990 starting P/E 13, -21%

2000 starting P/E 31, -48%

2008 starting P/E 15.6, ??

1981 stands out because of its low p/e at 8 yet the S&P 500 lost 24% of its value. That was a bad recession. If we enter a recession of that scale which some economist are making strong cases for (i.e. Roubini) and we are starting at a p/e nearly double that of 1981 then……in THEORY…..we could be looking at a substantial decline in the stock market. A 40% decline would put the S&P 500 at about 954 from the top this last October.

SDS anyone?

[LA_Renter]

I have a feeling we are going into a recession induced bear market, which is the worst kind. They are longer in average duration, represent some of the deepest declines, and are indifferent to starting P/E multiples which for the S&P 500 shows a current trailing P/E ratio of 15.6 which is really not all that bad especially compared to 2000 when it was approaching 30. If we are heading in such a direction then the first half of 2008 will not be pleasant due to the majority of the stock market losses occurring early in these types of markets. We are in a dense economic fog right now and the markets don’t like fog.

Here is a little history of recession induced bear markets for the S&P 500 with their starting P/E and percentage drop in value

1973 starting P/E 18, -45%

1978 starting P/E 9, -16%

1981 starting P/E 8, -24%

1990 starting P/E 13, -21%

2000 starting P/E 31, -48%

2008 starting P/E 15.6, ??

1981 stands out because of its low p/e at 8 yet the S&P 500 lost 24% of its value. That was a bad recession. If we enter a recession of that scale which some economist are making strong cases for (i.e. Roubini) and we are starting at a p/e nearly double that of 1981 then……in THEORY…..we could be looking at a substantial decline in the stock market. A 40% decline would put the S&P 500 at about 954 from the top this last October.

SDS anyone?

[LA_Renter]

I have a feeling we are going into a recession induced bear market, which is the worst kind. They are longer in average duration, represent some of the deepest declines, and are indifferent to starting P/E multiples which for the S&P 500 shows a current trailing P/E ratio of 15.6 which is really not all that bad especially compared to 2000 when it was approaching 30. If we are heading in such a direction then the first half of 2008 will not be pleasant due to the majority of the stock market losses occurring early in these types of markets. We are in a dense economic fog right now and the markets don’t like fog.

Here is a little history of recession induced bear markets for the S&P 500 with their starting P/E and percentage drop in value

1973 starting P/E 18, -45%

1978 starting P/E 9, -16%

1981 starting P/E 8, -24%

1990 starting P/E 13, -21%

2000 starting P/E 31, -48%

2008 starting P/E 15.6, ??

1981 stands out because of its low p/e at 8 yet the S&P 500 lost 24% of its value. That was a bad recession. If we enter a recession of that scale which some economist are making strong cases for (i.e. Roubini) and we are starting at a p/e nearly double that of 1981 then……in THEORY…..we could be looking at a substantial decline in the stock market. A 40% decline would put the S&P 500 at about 954 from the top this last October.

SDS anyone?

[LA_Renter]

I have a feeling we are going into a recession induced bear market, which is the worst kind. They are longer in average duration, represent some of the deepest declines, and are indifferent to starting P/E multiples which for the S&P 500 shows a current trailing P/E ratio of 15.6 which is really not all that bad especially compared to 2000 when it was approaching 30. If we are heading in such a direction then the first half of 2008 will not be pleasant due to the majority of the stock market losses occurring early in these types of markets. We are in a dense economic fog right now and the markets don’t like fog.

Here is a little history of recession induced bear markets for the S&P 500 with their starting P/E and percentage drop in value

1973 starting P/E 18, -45%

1978 starting P/E 9, -16%

1981 starting P/E 8, -24%

1990 starting P/E 13, -21%

2000 starting P/E 31, -48%

2008 starting P/E 15.6, ??

1981 stands out because of its low p/e at 8 yet the S&P 500 lost 24% of its value. That was a bad recession. If we enter a recession of that scale which some economist are making strong cases for (i.e. Roubini) and we are starting at a p/e nearly double that of 1981 then……in THEORY…..we could be looking at a substantial decline in the stock market. A 40% decline would put the S&P 500 at about 954 from the top this last October.

SDS anyone?

[LA_Renter]

I have a feeling we are going into a recession induced bear market, which is the worst kind. They are longer in average duration, represent some of the deepest declines, and are indifferent to starting P/E multiples which for the S&P 500 shows a current trailing P/E ratio of 15.6 which is really not all that bad especially compared to 2000 when it was approaching 30. If we are heading in such a direction then the first half of 2008 will not be pleasant due to the majority of the stock market losses occurring early in these types of markets. We are in a dense economic fog right now and the markets don’t like fog.

Here is a little history of recession induced bear markets for the S&P 500 with their starting P/E and percentage drop in value

1973 starting P/E 18, -45%

1978 starting P/E 9, -16%

1981 starting P/E 8, -24%

1990 starting P/E 13, -21%

2000 starting P/E 31, -48%

2008 starting P/E 15.6, ??

1981 stands out because of its low p/e at 8 yet the S&P 500 lost 24% of its value. That was a bad recession. If we enter a recession of that scale which some economist are making strong cases for (i.e. Roubini) and we are starting at a p/e nearly double that of 1981 then……in THEORY…..we could be looking at a substantial decline in the stock market. A 40% decline would put the S&P 500 at about 954 from the top this last October.

SDS anyone?

[LA_Renter]

Interesting thread. This is definitely an interesting political season. Here is something to consider regarding the current surge of Obama that goes beyond race, It’s Generation. Obama is 46 which is way down the down slope of what they call Baby Boomer. Here is a link from a 2000 CNN article describing Generation Jones.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/05/generation.jones/index.html

It describes those people that feel they are between boomer and X. They are the largest voting block in this country. Obama is from this era. Many people including myself are sick and tired of the old battles and skirmishes of the baby boomers rooted in the social and political turmoil of the 60’s. Bush / Clinton are the symbols of this conflict in today’s world. That is what is happening to Hillary. Don’t under estimate this Obama thing. The voting bloc he is appealing to is HUGE. If this election takes on the shape of severing ties with baby boomer conflicts and culture wars then that means many conventional assumptions will be thrown out the window.

Personally I like the rise of Obama, I just wish I could agree with all of his politics which I don’t. I am an independent that leans Libertarian. I don’t feel completely comfortable with to Democratic control, or should I say comfortable at all. But I must say the appeal of leaving some of this old crap behind us is very appealing. Just my two cents.

[LA_Renter]

Interesting thread. This is definitely an interesting political season. Here is something to consider regarding the current surge of Obama that goes beyond race, It’s Generation. Obama is 46 which is way down the down slope of what they call Baby Boomer. Here is a link from a 2000 CNN article describing Generation Jones.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/05/generation.jones/index.html

It describes those people that feel they are between boomer and X. They are the largest voting block in this country. Obama is from this era. Many people including myself are sick and tired of the old battles and skirmishes of the baby boomers rooted in the social and political turmoil of the 60’s. Bush / Clinton are the symbols of this conflict in today’s world. That is what is happening to Hillary. Don’t under estimate this Obama thing. The voting bloc he is appealing to is HUGE. If this election takes on the shape of severing ties with baby boomer conflicts and culture wars then that means many conventional assumptions will be thrown out the window.

Personally I like the rise of Obama, I just wish I could agree with all of his politics which I don’t. I am an independent that leans Libertarian. I don’t feel completely comfortable with to Democratic control, or should I say comfortable at all. But I must say the appeal of leaving some of this old crap behind us is very appealing. Just my two cents.

[LA_Renter]

Interesting thread. This is definitely an interesting political season. Here is something to consider regarding the current surge of Obama that goes beyond race, It’s Generation. Obama is 46 which is way down the down slope of what they call Baby Boomer. Here is a link from a 2000 CNN article describing Generation Jones.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/05/generation.jones/index.html

It describes those people that feel they are between boomer and X. They are the largest voting block in this country. Obama is from this era. Many people including myself are sick and tired of the old battles and skirmishes of the baby boomers rooted in the social and political turmoil of the 60’s. Bush / Clinton are the symbols of this conflict in today’s world. That is what is happening to Hillary. Don’t under estimate this Obama thing. The voting bloc he is appealing to is HUGE. If this election takes on the shape of severing ties with baby boomer conflicts and culture wars then that means many conventional assumptions will be thrown out the window.

Personally I like the rise of Obama, I just wish I could agree with all of his politics which I don’t. I am an independent that leans Libertarian. I don’t feel completely comfortable with to Democratic control, or should I say comfortable at all. But I must say the appeal of leaving some of this old crap behind us is very appealing. Just my two cents.

[LA_Renter]

Interesting thread. This is definitely an interesting political season. Here is something to consider regarding the current surge of Obama that goes beyond race, It’s Generation. Obama is 46 which is way down the down slope of what they call Baby Boomer. Here is a link from a 2000 CNN article describing Generation Jones.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/05/generation.jones/index.html

It describes those people that feel they are between boomer and X. They are the largest voting block in this country. Obama is from this era. Many people including myself are sick and tired of the old battles and skirmishes of the baby boomers rooted in the social and political turmoil of the 60’s. Bush / Clinton are the symbols of this conflict in today’s world. That is what is happening to Hillary. Don’t under estimate this Obama thing. The voting bloc he is appealing to is HUGE. If this election takes on the shape of severing ties with baby boomer conflicts and culture wars then that means many conventional assumptions will be thrown out the window.

Personally I like the rise of Obama, I just wish I could agree with all of his politics which I don’t. I am an independent that leans Libertarian. I don’t feel completely comfortable with to Democratic control, or should I say comfortable at all. But I must say the appeal of leaving some of this old crap behind us is very appealing. Just my two cents.

[LA_Renter]

Interesting thread. This is definitely an interesting political season. Here is something to consider regarding the current surge of Obama that goes beyond race, It’s Generation. Obama is 46 which is way down the down slope of what they call Baby Boomer. Here is a link from a 2000 CNN article describing Generation Jones.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/05/generation.jones/index.html

It describes those people that feel they are between boomer and X. They are the largest voting block in this country. Obama is from this era. Many people including myself are sick and tired of the old battles and skirmishes of the baby boomers rooted in the social and political turmoil of the 60’s. Bush / Clinton are the symbols of this conflict in today’s world. That is what is happening to Hillary. Don’t under estimate this Obama thing. The voting bloc he is appealing to is HUGE. If this election takes on the shape of severing ties with baby boomer conflicts and culture wars then that means many conventional assumptions will be thrown out the window.

Personally I like the rise of Obama, I just wish I could agree with all of his politics which I don’t. I am an independent that leans Libertarian. I don’t feel completely comfortable with to Democratic control, or should I say comfortable at all. But I must say the appeal of leaving some of this old crap behind us is very appealing. Just my two cents.

[LA_Renter]

“I can’t wait for this year to be over.”

Bugs I was literally thinking the same thing right when I read your post.

[LA_Renter]

“I can’t wait for this year to be over.”

Bugs I was literally thinking the same thing right when I read your post.

[LA_Renter]

“I can’t wait for this year to be over.”

Bugs I was literally thinking the same thing right when I read your post.

[LA_Renter]

“I can’t wait for this year to be over.”

Bugs I was literally thinking the same thing right when I read your post.

[LA_Renter]

“I can’t wait for this year to be over.”

Bugs I was literally thinking the same thing right when I read your post.

[Author]

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