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kev374
Participant[quote=flu]FThat still doesn’t explain the 2/3 to 3/4 people who aren’t foreign investors that are still buying. Institutional buying at these levels? no way…[/quote]
People with good credit and good high income jobs, particularly dual high income earners. In a recession they are laid off the first. Even very responsible people are willing to highly leverage themselves with real estate based on their current financials with the mindset that it is the responsible thing to do because home ownership is a responsible activity – that is the common wisdom.
I know plenty of very responsible people who lost or almost lost their homes due to job loss during the last crash.
The key thing is that we are overdue for a recession and the political climate is also very tenuous. Is this pessimism on my part, I would just call it being guarded – history tells us the good times don’t last forever. Recessions happen and the fallout from the next one could be serious.
Participantjust because lending standards are tight does not mean speculators do not exist. The speculators this time around have been private equity and foreign investors, this is a widely known fact. It’s a repeat of the past but just the actors are different.
It’s not a matter of IF but when the next recession occurs and rents start softening. Oh yes, all the experts here proclaim that rents never fall – that is utter BS. I know during the last crash my rent fell by 30% in south OC, rents were crashing as well. What happens to all the rental investments, the rental backed securities held by private equity? Will they start bailing?
I am not saying that I know what is going to happen, but completely dismissing the possibility that prices are over inflated is completely short sighted.
Participant[quote=flu]
people want to believe what they want to believe, especially if they are sitting on the sideline in the opposite direction of the trend…imho…[/quote]funny, I heard the same comments prior to the last crash! Some of the comments by users and economists here are very reminiscent of 2006 where contrarians were mocked and we know what happened shortly thereafter.
Her style may be unusual and there may be some conjecture but I do agree with the overall sentiment that things are getting very frothy in many markets. Then there are many upcoming wildcards – rising interest rates, a possible recession and incomes that are falling in real terms.
ParticipantIt can hit new highs… I think everyone who isn’t in real estate has stopped giving a flying fuck anymore. Most are tired of these ridiculous bubbles that are going to eventually crash and in the interim people pretending that these are real valuations and economists releasing press articles swearing why this time it is “different” LMAO!
Participanthistory always repeats, it’s the nature of our times these days to foster greed which of course drives everyone blind.
The whole 2008 financial crisis is repeating, except this time the bad mortgages are going to be insured by the government rather than sold to private investors.
Now, how that will end I can’t tell you but we already have $19 Trillion in debt and this joker wants to have “massive tax cuts” with seriously questionable assumptions (“It will unleash growth” LMAO! – the reality is it makes the top 5% richer than they already are!)
Shame that the system is run by these conmen and it’s a shame that people at all levels just want what they want whether it’s houses, car, vacations or electronics with utter disregard whether they have to go into serious debt for it.
ParticipantI think I still did not get an answer to the question – if you had $300,000 sitting in the bank in CASH, what you would do with it now???
How would you diversify? What type of funds would you buy?
I want to get neutral advice from regular people without vested interests because I DO NOT TRUST financial advisers, I think they are scam artists.
ParticipantWhat do you guys think of this analysis?
https://www.lombardiletter.com/u-s-housing-bubble-2017/8112/amp/
Participantmarket is over 21k DOW for the first time… it just seems a bit surreal because how much higher can it go?
This in the news today:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4050865-stock-market-correction-finally-coming-march-rate-hike
ParticipantSome say epic bubble on the precipice of a monster crash.
Others say the US is the best economy right now relative to the rest – EU, Canada, AU all are faltering so stocks can only go higher.
So, hold out and wait for the correction or just get into the market and hope for the best?
Participantso what is the consensus here? Or is there no consensus? Wait for the correction or invest now regardless?
How about a safer bond fund returning 3-5%, anything like that exist among Fidelity or Vanguard funds? Thinking maybe I will keep money in a bond fund until the correction and branch out into regular mutual funds. Is that a good plan?
Dow is not headed to 21K, I can’t believe it, how high will it go? There are so many articles in the media saying a correction is imminent and that makes me really nervous.
ParticipantI got a checkup when I was in Bangalore, India a few months ago. State of the art hospital using the same million dollar machines (from GE, Seimens whatever) used in American hospitals. I paid $50 out of pocket for Ultrasound, Full bevy of comprehensive tests including Lipid profile, Pre/Post glucose, stress test, consult with nutritionist, Dental consult, consult with Doctor, EKG, X-Ray, Bone density test and more. Not only that they gave me a full folder containing all the results, images and plots in addition to a CD with all the test data.
Oh, not to mention a delicious breakfast was also included on the house. Somehow the economics work for this hospital that has also bought these same machines for millions of dollars.
The same tests in the US would’ve cost me $10,000 or 200 times more. I can understand 3X-4X the cost but 200X? I want to know why.
Healthcare in the US is nothing more than a money making racket.
I’ve said it before and I will say it again… no healthcare strategy will EVER WORK unless we get to the bottom of why costs are so ridiculously astronomical compared to everything else in our economy. We have to get costs to a more reasonable level or we are just going to go in circles without solving anything.
Participantwas getting data from this source:
http://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_139.htm
These are annualized returns since 1975. If you look at the data you see hardly any red but plenty of years with crazy high returns. So the corrections are small compared to the run ups. Infact, 2013 return was 26% and 2016 return was 23%. Since 2009 only 2015 has been negative.
Looking at this source and quoted:
https://www.validea.com/blog/bull-markets-dominate-bear-markets-in-length-returns/On average, bull markets have returned 145% and lasted nearly 4 years. The longest bull market was during the 1990s, when the S&P 500 returned 526%. Unlike bull markets, bear markets, on average, are much shorter. The average bear market has seen losses of 23% and has lasted 14 months. Two out of the three worst bear markets have happened since 2000 (stocks fell 43% from 2000-early 2003 and the market declined 51% from 2008-2009).
Participant[quote=earlyretirement]Things don’t move in straight lines forever. I give the market no more than 12 months then we will probably move into recession. I’m not sure of your timing.[/quote]
Yeah, that is what they said 5 years ago and that proved to be totally false. We may have a 20% correction 5 years from now but that means nothing if we have 5 more years of 10-20% annual gains.
I always feared corrections and was pessimistic about timing myself. However, timing means nothing in a long term window because corrections always have much higher gains in adjacent years.. and looking at historical charts it looks like bull markets are way longer than bear markets.
I stayed out of the market fearing a correction since 2011 and lost out on over $100,000 worth of profits that I could’ve realized. Bummer!
Participantnothing really changes for the people working for actual American companies who pay market wages.. I know H1bs here in Southern California making equal to the market rate.
It’s the body shopping Indian companies that are abusing the whole system – Infosys, Wipro, TCS etc. They are the ones paying 50% of the market wage using various loopholes. In addition, they apply for 4 times the number of visas needed to saturate the H1b lottery. This prevents other American companies that have legitimate needs without access to the visas.
Infosys, TCS, Wipro etc. need to be banned from the program permanently. If they want to do Software Development let them do it in India.
The greater problem is the L1 visa which is abused even more. L1 was created to move employees temporarily between branch offices of American companies and not to bring thousands of people en masse to work onsite for a 3rd party client. This practice must be banned immediately.
An L1 worker must be prohibited to work at a address that is different from the company’s address in the US. Additionally they should be required to leave after a maximum of 90 days unless serious justification is given why they need to stay.
Further, I think L1 and H1b visas should not at all be given to ANY company that has laid off American workers in the same category in the past 3 years.
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