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May 13, 2007 at 10:03 AM in reply to: Here is your motivation TO WAIT!!!!! $200/sqft in Mission Viejo! #52680May 12, 2007 at 9:48 PM in reply to: Here is your motivation TO WAIT!!!!! $200/sqft in Mission Viejo! #52649
kev374
Participantsdrealtor, I doubt there will be any bidding frenzy on this property. Can you clarify why the listing price is irrelevant? If it’s irrelevant why have they even listed it at that price?
May 12, 2007 at 2:21 PM in reply to: Here is your motivation TO WAIT!!!!! $200/sqft in Mission Viejo! #52626ParticipantAnd another one at $256/sqft in Lake Forest.
24872 STEM AVENUE, Lake Forest, CA 92630
5bd/3ba
MLS: P561928
2500 sqft, $640,000
DOM: 92 days
ZEstimate: $757,000These are actual listings and actual prices. How much more proof does one need that there is a serious correction starting right now? All these people bought more than they could chew with money they didn’t have and now they have to get rid of these homes!
ParticipantHousing is not going to crash without something horrific happening.
Most of the spike up in home prices were caused due to loose lending and speculation. The horrific situation you mention is payment shock for all those who financed under teaser rates and the speculators who cannot unload their homes and have to take a loss on it.
There is just way too much money in San Diego today, lots of Orange County wannabees are down here with large trust funds and endless cash.
You’re completely dellusional about this.
The people who have “way too much money” bought their homes long time ago and don’t contribute to new demand. They are not in the market to buy new homes. It’s completely irrelevant.
The key point is how much money a first time homebuyer has, the market is chained in that if a entry level buyer cannot afford a home then the upgrade buyer cannot move up because he can’t sell and so on and so forth.
.I read these articles about the bubble popping, sub prime etc… but then I look around at open homes, sales releases etc… and business is still booming.
The news is completely bogus and fabricated, it’s your choice to believe it. I have friends in the mortgage business and who are realtors. They all tell me the market is hopelessly DEAD. There has been a small uptick in activity because it’s spring right now but compared to a typical spring selling season it resembles as Roubini would put it “ARCTIC WINTER” !!
On this board we’re not disgruntled but practical, we’re looking at the various factors and discussing the direction of the market. Right now there are a HUGE number of factors that very strongly indicate that a good size decline is going to happen. Being in denial is not going to stop that.
As I mentioned in the previous posts buyer psychology has to change in a BIG way. That takes a long time, people have been fed with the “home is the key to big wealth” brianwashing for so long that even now some believe that they should do absolutely anything and everything to own. This psychology has to change and it has to become widely accepted that owning a home in this market is financial suicide.
Participantsdrealtor, someone earning north of 120k is certainly in the top 10% of incomes in the country. You think 1800sqft in Laguna Niguel/Dana Pt. is out of the question for such a household?
Fullerton is not my definition of a great neighborhood, average middle income neighborhood at best.
As I said I’m not looking for a view taking into account current inflated prices but some of these homes in Laguna Niguel were $300,000 in 2000-2001.
ParticipantRemember that inflation is also location specific. Per the stats inflation in Orange County is 4.3% which is much higher than the national average.
Participantattended a seminar today and they were showcasing a new product to potential first time buyers that only requires $500 down and a strong credit history is optional.
Participantprices have dropped quite significantly, however the median doesn’t reflect that. The lower end of the market is dead and the only volume that is happening is on the upper end units. This explains the precipitous drop in sales volume while the median is relatively unchanged.
So don’t look at median, look at the the S&P Case Shiller index. It maps price trends on the same exact house so it’s much more of an accurate measure.
Also look at *list* prices. You can see aggressive price cuts already in some of the lower end units. Last year sub 500k 3bd/2ba SFRs in South OC were unheard of, in the last couple months they are slowly but surely showing up.
ParticipantI don’t condone the public attacks at all or any sort of unprofessionalism but my unbiased view is that her site looks good.
ParticipantAlso like to mention that the KEY factor that drove the boom was buyer *PSYCHOLOGY*. The belief that buying a home was the key to wealth, that homes would appreciate strongly, that if they don’t get on the bandwagon the road to wealth will be missed.
Today the psychology has completely changed 180 degrees. With all the problems with subprime, foreclosures and the proof that houses are dropping the value nobody wants to be a pay such a HUGE premium to assume such a big liability. Add to this the credit crunch and it spells disaster for home prices as we go forward.
The ONLY people who believe the housing drop will be minimal are the homeowners because they are in DENIAL. But homeowners are not the ones who set price points 😉 It’s the BUYER sentiment that matters. What homeowners think is totally irrelevant.
May 3, 2007 at 12:00 PM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51726ParticipantBut the sheer amount of wealth and international diversity in the area just doesn’t make it seem that likely to me
Wealth? Excuse me? Have you personally verified their net worth? Most of these seemingly wealthy people are in debt upto their eyeballs my friend!
And why would call center entrepreneurs from India would not be shopping for property in Santa Monica of all places? If they had that much money they could easily buy in the French Riviera.
ParticipantIt was great, Rich did a good job explaining everything.
Participantnice, I’m looking forward to it. Thanks 🙂
May 3, 2007 at 9:16 AM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51696ParticipantThis sort of nonsense by so called expert economists are printed before every bubble. If you look at the NY Times archive you can find exactly the same articles calling 30% declines proposterous yet the decline was exactly that and in many areas it was worse.
$400,000 shacks in the ghetto is downright absurd, do you require a PhD in economics to realize that?
ParticipantYeah, this is a joke…how is a 90 day freeze going to do anything but delay the inevitable?
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