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November 15, 2007 at 9:36 AM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99858November 15, 2007 at 9:36 AM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99865
kev374
ParticipantAccording to THIS link from DataQuick we’re back to Spring 2005 levels.
Here it the thing, the article says the SoCal median is $444,000 and the typical mortgage payment is $2111. A 30yr loan on 444k with $88,000 down at 6.8% would be $2,320 which is the basic mortgage payment only. And I know most are not putting 20% down, how did they arrive at this low figure?
Participantfor me personally…when price reach 2001 or 2002 levels I will feel comfortable to get into the market. Regardless of what I can afford I want to be able to see reversion to some kind of historical average or “reversion to mean” as they call it.
I’m with Goldman Sachs on this one, will wait for a 40% from the current median. This implies around 2002 prices, as per Dataquick OC median was somewhere in the low 300s I believe.. 312k or so. I believe the national median would go down to around $150-160k or so and that would make OC double the national average, sounds about right, even though OC does not nearly have double the national income!
If you think about it 312k under 28/36 ratio and 20% down is still VERY expensive, I mean people need to have $63,000 cash to put down and another $10,000 in closing costs and what about additional expenses..emergency fund, moving etc. but then again OC is an expensive place to live.
Who knows, it may go down more to the mid-high 200s if foreclosures skyrocket because of the ARM tsunami ahead of us and financing dries up even more! I’m trying to be conservative with the 40% drop estimate.
Participantfor me personally…when price reach 2001 or 2002 levels I will feel comfortable to get into the market. Regardless of what I can afford I want to be able to see reversion to some kind of historical average or “reversion to mean” as they call it.
I’m with Goldman Sachs on this one, will wait for a 40% from the current median. This implies around 2002 prices, as per Dataquick OC median was somewhere in the low 300s I believe.. 312k or so. I believe the national median would go down to around $150-160k or so and that would make OC double the national average, sounds about right, even though OC does not nearly have double the national income!
If you think about it 312k under 28/36 ratio and 20% down is still VERY expensive, I mean people need to have $63,000 cash to put down and another $10,000 in closing costs and what about additional expenses..emergency fund, moving etc. but then again OC is an expensive place to live.
Who knows, it may go down more to the mid-high 200s if foreclosures skyrocket because of the ARM tsunami ahead of us and financing dries up even more! I’m trying to be conservative with the 40% drop estimate.
Participantfor me personally…when price reach 2001 or 2002 levels I will feel comfortable to get into the market. Regardless of what I can afford I want to be able to see reversion to some kind of historical average or “reversion to mean” as they call it.
I’m with Goldman Sachs on this one, will wait for a 40% from the current median. This implies around 2002 prices, as per Dataquick OC median was somewhere in the low 300s I believe.. 312k or so. I believe the national median would go down to around $150-160k or so and that would make OC double the national average, sounds about right, even though OC does not nearly have double the national income!
If you think about it 312k under 28/36 ratio and 20% down is still VERY expensive, I mean people need to have $63,000 cash to put down and another $10,000 in closing costs and what about additional expenses..emergency fund, moving etc. but then again OC is an expensive place to live.
Who knows, it may go down more to the mid-high 200s if foreclosures skyrocket because of the ARM tsunami ahead of us and financing dries up even more! I’m trying to be conservative with the 40% drop estimate.
Participantfor me personally…when price reach 2001 or 2002 levels I will feel comfortable to get into the market. Regardless of what I can afford I want to be able to see reversion to some kind of historical average or “reversion to mean” as they call it.
I’m with Goldman Sachs on this one, will wait for a 40% from the current median. This implies around 2002 prices, as per Dataquick OC median was somewhere in the low 300s I believe.. 312k or so. I believe the national median would go down to around $150-160k or so and that would make OC double the national average, sounds about right, even though OC does not nearly have double the national income!
If you think about it 312k under 28/36 ratio and 20% down is still VERY expensive, I mean people need to have $63,000 cash to put down and another $10,000 in closing costs and what about additional expenses..emergency fund, moving etc. but then again OC is an expensive place to live.
Who knows, it may go down more to the mid-high 200s if foreclosures skyrocket because of the ARM tsunami ahead of us and financing dries up even more! I’m trying to be conservative with the 40% drop estimate.
Participantfor me personally…when price reach 2001 or 2002 levels I will feel comfortable to get into the market. Regardless of what I can afford I want to be able to see reversion to some kind of historical average or “reversion to mean” as they call it.
I’m with Goldman Sachs on this one, will wait for a 40% from the current median. This implies around 2002 prices, as per Dataquick OC median was somewhere in the low 300s I believe.. 312k or so. I believe the national median would go down to around $150-160k or so and that would make OC double the national average, sounds about right, even though OC does not nearly have double the national income!
If you think about it 312k under 28/36 ratio and 20% down is still VERY expensive, I mean people need to have $63,000 cash to put down and another $10,000 in closing costs and what about additional expenses..emergency fund, moving etc. but then again OC is an expensive place to live.
Who knows, it may go down more to the mid-high 200s if foreclosures skyrocket because of the ARM tsunami ahead of us and financing dries up even more! I’m trying to be conservative with the 40% drop estimate.
November 14, 2007 at 1:54 PM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99418ParticipantI am of the opinion that there will be a mini-rally sometime next yr, perhaps Q2 or Q3 not sure. That will cause home prices to creep up a bit. Of course the long term trend is WAY WAY DOWN but ignorant and impatient people will always jump into the fire before it actually cools and get burned in the process.
November 14, 2007 at 1:54 PM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99483ParticipantI am of the opinion that there will be a mini-rally sometime next yr, perhaps Q2 or Q3 not sure. That will cause home prices to creep up a bit. Of course the long term trend is WAY WAY DOWN but ignorant and impatient people will always jump into the fire before it actually cools and get burned in the process.
November 14, 2007 at 1:54 PM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99498ParticipantI am of the opinion that there will be a mini-rally sometime next yr, perhaps Q2 or Q3 not sure. That will cause home prices to creep up a bit. Of course the long term trend is WAY WAY DOWN but ignorant and impatient people will always jump into the fire before it actually cools and get burned in the process.
November 14, 2007 at 1:54 PM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99500ParticipantI am of the opinion that there will be a mini-rally sometime next yr, perhaps Q2 or Q3 not sure. That will cause home prices to creep up a bit. Of course the long term trend is WAY WAY DOWN but ignorant and impatient people will always jump into the fire before it actually cools and get burned in the process.
November 14, 2007 at 1:54 PM in reply to: Home prices back to 2003 levels – according to the UT #99507ParticipantI am of the opinion that there will be a mini-rally sometime next yr, perhaps Q2 or Q3 not sure. That will cause home prices to creep up a bit. Of course the long term trend is WAY WAY DOWN but ignorant and impatient people will always jump into the fire before it actually cools and get burned in the process.
Participantgaming the system? bub, are you serious??
The Fed is screwing with the markets and printing money to fuel ponzi schemes and entice people to take on more debt than they can afford so a select few on Wall St. can get rich…
who is gaming who here? Are you sure the system is not gaming the responsible American Public? Better wake up buddy!
Participantgaming the system? bub, are you serious??
The Fed is screwing with the markets and printing money to fuel ponzi schemes and entice people to take on more debt than they can afford so a select few on Wall St. can get rich…
who is gaming who here? Are you sure the system is not gaming the responsible American Public? Better wake up buddy!
Participantgaming the system? bub, are you serious??
The Fed is screwing with the markets and printing money to fuel ponzi schemes and entice people to take on more debt than they can afford so a select few on Wall St. can get rich…
who is gaming who here? Are you sure the system is not gaming the responsible American Public? Better wake up buddy!
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