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JWM in SD
Participant“U.S. military is almost ham strung in two little mideast counties…”
I agree with all you said except this statement. They are not militarily hamstrung they are politically hamstrung. The job of the military is to break stuff not be policemen. The problem is a bad definition of what their mission was supposed to be. In the case of Iran, don’t kid yourself, the US Military unrestrained could flatten them easily. The problem is whether the world court wold accept that and whether the US citizens have the stomach for the casualties involved. People seem to forget how brutal WWII really was and it was over in a matter 4 years. Iraq is nothing compared to that. As much as I dislike the comparison to vietnam, I think the Iraq situation is suffering the same set of issue.
ParticipantThe Pain Train is pulling into the station. Next stop, OC. All FBs and GFs on board. Final Stop: Foreclosure.
ParticipantNice post Bloat, thanks for the historical perspective.
ParticipantWell PB, it really depends now doesn’t it? If they are polite about it, then no reason to be rude obviously. However, if they start spouting NAR propaganda then all bets are off. I would be just as abrasive as I am here.
ParticipantHmmm, yeah, I can’t wait to open the front door and be confronted with a pair of realtors….they will walk away crying…
ParticipantMy definition Moral Hazard:
When some poor J6P in flyover country making 40 or 50K a year, and who will never ever step foot into a 700k home much less own one, gets a huge tax increase to bailout some SoCal DBag who overleveraged on a 700k house. Will there be political ramifications at that point? Is that when a Ron Paul figure comes into prominence? Or do my kids get to pay this off?This may sound extreme to some but that’s what it boils down to.
Participant“Adelizzi said his concern was not for the health of the mortgage market, but for the people who have gotten caught up in foreclosures. The market eventually will correct itself, he said, “but we want to see it happen in a way that causes the least amount of pain.””
Ah yes, well why don’t you fund that yourself Adelizzi??? Or maybe the SD Pension Fund can buy those foreclosures as an investment in the city itself right?? Oh yeah, forgot about Ameranth.
These people are mental midgets….
Participant“I can’t possibly go long at this time (except maybe energy and commodities), but I don’t have enough confidence to go short.
That said, I can’t shake the feeling that current market entrants are buying into the maw of a serious slowdown, perhaps even a recession.
It’s true that exports are up, obviously imports will fall with the weaker dollar, but it’s also true that domestic profits are really starting to sag.”
Agreed.
Participantpartpup I agree with you on almost everything except the military. The US military is still the best. If there was political will to take Iran, then it could be done conventionally, don’t kid yourself there. The problem is that the public is not in favor of it and would not tolerate the casualities incurred to do that.
ParticipantNice post LA Renter. I think there may be some merit to your theory about the delayed effect of the cut so as to get in front of the curve on Deflation. I’ve considered this myself, but like you said, it’s confusing and frigtening that we got to this point at all.
I think there are really two camps of thought on this:
One => Increase rates and tighten immediately and then let the cards fall where they may.
Two => Decrease rate and provide liquidity risking the USD until the deflate effects are more obvious.
This is Bernanke’s Box as best as I can describe it. Mish Shedlock predicted this about 18 mos ago. I should have been better prepared 🙁
ParticipantThat;s because LA and SD are not really proper cities in that sense. They are not like NY, Chicago or even SF for that matter.
ParticipantLook FLU, sorry for being flip about your question. I’m desperately trying to figure this out as well and right now my best answer is to get out of the USD and hedge until I can see that it is gaining strength again. I just think that the probability of that is less than a lot of people are willing to acknowledge at this point. The decisions we see on the surface don’t make sense anymore. That is why I think something is going on. To assume otherwise is to say that otherwise intelligent people in power are bumbling idiots. It is getting very confusing and it’s making me increasingly nervous about the future.
Participant“I think they panicked at least 10 years ago.”
Yeah, rustico you are right. Greenspan failed to correct his errors and now we are gonig to pay for it.
Participant“My take is in the short term big boys are going to try to squeeze the hell out of shorts to pump up the market. Then when people start jumping in on long positions, the big boys are going to dump on all the longs. But that’s just the cynical side of me talking. The big boys can endure massive losses either way before average joe blinks.”
I think you are right. You just answered your own question. Of course, if you want to try and time that correctly, then go for it.
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