[JP]

If there really is an avalanche of people looking to hedge, then the price of the option is going to skyrocket, ie, it won’t be worth purchasing.

The option makers will make money in any case, so I doubt there’s anything sinister in the delay.

[JP]

Paul Krugman was writing about the bubble certainly by May2005

That was just a quick google search. (His Aug 2005 article described the situation today pretty well.) I wouldn’t doubt that there’s something earlier.

[JP]

I agree with lostkitty, for somewhat different reasons. Agents routinely try to increase rents, but while the unit sits empty, the agents look at other options. After a month or two of lost money, they lower the ask.

As with buying, rent is all about competition and alternatives. The major difference is that renters are not competing with each another using suicide-loan instruments. Hence the disparity in price/rent ratios.

[JP]

Best time to buy: 11/2008
Best asking price: down 40%

Reason for best time: Major ARMs resets happen throughout 2007, and it will take a while for people to get their heads around their personal finances. Many will hold on through summer, because they’re hopeful. Going into winter will cause the panic.

Reason for ask: Draw a line from 1995 prices, on a log scale that corresponds to 8% appreciation. Build in overshoot.

[Author]

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