[JJGittes]

You may be right, but judging from the grammer used by RE agents in their write-ups on properties, I wouldn’t depend on the intelligence of 95% of them to protect me from a blind chihuahua…..”This house is a steel!!!”

After going through four personal RE transactions in my life, I’ve noticed it seems like the business is almost entirely form driven (taken a look at the Winforms index lately?), and agents/brokers do all they can to avoid any liability to their own client, much less the other side. With the new natural hazard disclosure even more is taken care of for sellers through the escrow process, which handles the bulk of the paperwork.

Don’t get me wrong, there are some pro’s who add value, just not many, and certainly not $24k of value to an $800k transaction. For that amount of money, you could hire the best law firm in San Diego to handle the paperwork, and a chunk of the resulting litigation if something went horribly wrong. I mean really, if you use the same agent for your sale, and then your next purchase, at N. County prices you’d be putting $40-50k in their pocket. I can’t be convinced that the value is there for the middle class transaction. $10k maybe, but not Mercedes numbers.

Look, again, don’t take all this the wrong way, I’m not saying it with hostility, but the RE profession is absolutely overrun with moronic goofballs and they have irrevocably soured the punchbowl.

[JJGittes]

The system could never get by without skilled representation by seasoned professionals. For instance, take the below ad on craigslist, high level psychology is employed through the threat that if the house thats advertised is not bought now, the seller will retaliate by delisting it, and then raising the price later. Slick baby, slick…

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/279693003.html

[JJGittes]

Actually, a new kind of high stakes gambler. Your credit rating is your buy-in. I smell plenty of busts coming from these programs.

[JJGittes]

Its settled. Has been for decades. End of discussion.

http://denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm

[JJGittes]

I think they are located just off the 15. I guess that is Fallbrook, but it isn’t exactly the best are of that town. I know somebody who lives in Sycamore Ranch off Gird Road. Much more expensive obvioulsy than this development, but it is a nice community.

[JJGittes]

If it was your house, and you wanted to sell, would you list it at $400k, since you don’t wear rose colored glasses?

[JJGittes]

I’m as bearish as anyone around here, but exactly what is the analysis that drives the conclusion that the house is $350k overpriced? The most recent comp is in the ballpark, like it or not.

[JJGittes]

San Diego has always been expensive, and always will be. I bought in May 1998 in Carlsbad, and we thought prices were crazy then, even though prices were barely off the low in hindsight. Perhaps prices will continue to decline from here — the UT reports today we are now down to 2004 levels…factor in inflation and in many areas I think we are off the highs already by 20% — but don’t be surprised if you feel queasy about SD prices no matter when you get in. good luck

[JJGittes]

Juice is right. My rule of thumb is it takes $600 a month to service $100k of mortgage. So, if the mello roos and HOA add up to that, make sure you look at alternative w/0 MR and HOA that are $100k more, and perhaps in better/closer areas.

[JJGittes]

Nope, definitely San Marcos. Rancho Carillo elem, San Elijo midle, SM High. All SM school district. The line is just west of Rancho Carillo, which is also in the SM district, as is most of La Costa Greens. Bressi is in Carlsbad school district. Believe me, I’ve checked it all….

[JJGittes]

Seems relatively low, but does it back up to Palomar Airport Road? I can’t tell from the pics.

Personally, although the houses in RD are nice, especially those up the hill, I have always thought they were somewhat overpriced because they don’t really have any amenities (like the pool at Rancho Carillo), but have a fairly steep HOA and mello roos. Also they are of course in the San Marcos school district.

Anyway, maybe its just somebody who actually wants to sell their home?

[JJGittes]

I went to 4s and Del Sur today and looked at neighborhoods between $650k and 800k. Most of the houses in that range were of the long rectangular variety, often with the garages off an alley in the back. Kind of similar to Bressi, now that I think of it. The lots must have been 4000-5000sf max. The total mello roos plus tax rates ranged from 1.4-1.7 in 4s, to 1.9% in Del Sur. All in all, once you factor in options, landscaping, patios, window blinds/drapes and add on to all of it the mello roos and the HOA fees, it is all still really friggin expensive. And neither of those communities are exactly located steps to the sand. Actually, it was pretty windswept out there today, it reminded me of High Plains Drifter with Clint E.

On the plus side, the schools looked nice and new…

[JJGittes]

What is the Mello Roos and HOA in the lower ($600-800k) priced 4S neighborhoods? Has anyone heard of builders ‘incentivising’ away MR in any of the 4s neighborhoods?

[JJGittes]

Gotta love gold bugs. Hmm, let’s see, do I wish I would have bought $100,000 of gold in 1980, or $100,000 of SD real estate in 1980?

I wonder…. http://goldinfo.net/goldchart.html

Lemme know when the shiny stuff manages a new high after almost 30 years. Meanwhile I guess I’ll just suffer through the 7 year SD RE cycles.

[JJGittes]

I did it in 1994. As I recall, it is a pretty easy process. You could save $1000 per one hundred thousand of decline. A lot of people don’t do it though, because they feel like they are surrendering.

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