[Jazzman]

Got to disagree here. If that is the Honda Crosstour, it has one of the best butts in the market. It is the rest of the car that doesn’t work. Now let me guess, you hate the Nissan Juke? All relevant to the questions you raise, since design is what helps sell and the auto industry still doesn’t get it. Why? Steve Jobs should have headed up the auto industry. All cars now look the same, and are all grey in color. No character, no individuality, and German cars are held up to be the epitimoy of style. German cars?! Everyone’s too scared they won’t blend in.

[Jazzman]

The biggest of all Feng Shui principles is a home that is good value for money. That makes most homes Feng Shui unfriendly. In fact, the bubble was caused by a total disregard for its principles. So to free the positive spirit of your home, and drive out all negative ‘chi’ you must lower the expectations of its value (25-50% will do), and take the lowest offers. This will create great harmony, especially with your neighbors and realtor.

The force be with you!

[Jazzman]

There are manufacturers who make quieter fans now, but they still recommend installing in halls outside bedrooms, presumably due to noise. They are obviously only effective if outside temps drop significantly in the evening.

There are problems with excess dust and other matter being drawn into the house.

If your loft is well insulated, it won’t be the cause of all the heat build up in your home. Overhangs, well positioned trees, awnings, window glass treatment can all help. Simple house fans circulate air and offer cost effective relief.

[Jazzman]

Yep, he has been saying this for some time, which coincided with a noticeable turn around in other previously bearish corners of the blogosphere. Maybe they are right, but I fancy not entirely. Influential bears were possibly too successful. We will be able to look back in a few years, and know the answers.

[Jazzman]

First, apologies to OP for the hijack, and just to reiterate your instincts are right on target.

BG, please don’t take it personally, I do like CA and love the people. I just think homes are over-priced, as do many who live there. My home town London is a LOT worse.

Yes, you are right. We talked ourselves out of it, because we knew it was a losing battle some time ago. And you are right in that it is horses for courses. Maui is small, remote, and island fever sets in, which is why we will buy our main home near Paris. We’re in Honolulu (30 mins away) at the moment celebrating my birthday.

[Jazzman]

[quote=Wantoceanview]Hi,

Thoughts? Do you think we should go in with a low ball offer? Or wait for more inventory? We have time on our side since our lease isn’t up until 2013 and we aren’t in too much of a hurry.

[/quote]

Both! Use the time you have to your full advantage. If it’s been on the market for six months, I’d go in low, but back it up with plenty of justification. I wouldn’t go on Redfin’s comps alone. Do your own but using their suggestions, and gradually wear the sellers down. Make sure you have a broker who’s on the same page, and be prepared for major problems thrown up by the inspection. Good luck!

[Jazzman]

BG, I ask because “over-priced” usually only provokes a reaction from Realtors.

Not only did I look in all the places (and others), but lived in three of them. Yes, I’ve pretty much hung up the coat, and my wife draws a pension. I can afford to buy in all of these places, but one or two are not worth the bother. Santa Monica for example. We looked at fixers, REO’s, short sales, the court house steps …everything. We pounded the streets looking for deals, hammered sellers and lenders relentlessly wearing them down, looking for opportunities and weaknesses, even went against our brokers best advice. We were much more aggressive than most buyers, and were considered “savvy” by all those who represented us. Interestingly, our SB broker who put a lot of pressure on us, in the end relented, and agreed with me totally.

I really did my homework, and therein probably lies the problem. The more I became aware of the issues, the more skeptical I became.

We looked, and looked in Santa Barbara for two years. The situation actually got worse. In 2010, there may have been one or two opportunities, since local housing was depressed, but there were very visible efforts to stop price declines at all costs. It was a sacrosanct, protected haven. Ojai was an option and we saw many homes there, but it was ludicrous what sellers wanted in such a remote little place.

We did want to live in CA, but the poor choice of homes and asking prices was such a deterrent. If you are a cash buyer, it’s your money and you are much more reluctant to part with it than when using someone else’s. I once said to a broker who scorned us for our tactics; “Have to ever paid $x cash for anything?” You could see the penny drop.

If you have trouble understanding why we struggled so, I can only repeat that our experience is probably broader based than the average CA buyer, so our perspective is going to be shaped by obvious comparisons. One thing I have noticed with Californians is a reluctance to acknowledge that there are alternatives. Until you have lived them you won’t know.

[Jazzman]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Jazzman]
******************************************

I have a question for you Jazzman … Was LJ proper where you were looking for a SFR to buy before you got frustrated with the local market there and left SD? And if so, and you had been successful making an acceptable deal there, would it have been the first property you owned in a CA coastal county?[/quote]

I chose La Jolla because prices are at the stickier end of the spectrum. If you do the same analysis on many other places, coastal or otherwise, the price differential over the same period is an eye opener. Homes are over-priced. It’s a lot to pay for what you get, doesn’t matter what, so no justification in my view. I’m not swayed by arguments of affordability, or location.

To your question, we looked at La Jolla, Del Sur, Encinitas, Laguna Beach, Pasadena, Marin County, but decided the best of all places was Santa Barbara. We could afford a home in most of these places, but that wasn’t the issue here. I believe there is an innate sense of value for money (sadly being eroded by easy money). Many homes lacked aesthetic appeal, build quality, with tons of deferred maintenance. In a nutshell, pretty disappointing.

My experience with real estate is not confined to the last few years, nor just in the US, so my perspective is going to differ somewhat from yours.

Now I have a question for you? What is your interest in real estate?

[Jazzman]

BG, here’s some numbers. I haven’t cherry picked, and these are all “immune” La Jolla and post bubble prices.

Dec 29, 1988 Sold (Public Records) $620,000 Jul 09, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,085,000 75% more expensive over 24 yrs
Dec 28, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Jul 03, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,045,000 60% more expensive over 13 yrs
Mar 01, 1995 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 May 25, 2012 Sold (MLS) $1,110,000 300% more expensive over 17 yrs
Oct 12, 2000 Sold (Public Records) $795,000 Jun 19, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,125,000 42% more expensive over 12 yrs
Jan 25, 1995 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Jul 03, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,268,000 238% more expensive over 17 yrs
Oct 10, 1991 Sold (Public Records) $568,000 Jun 11, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,275,000 124% more expensive over 21 yrs
Mar 10, 1988 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Jul 02, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,280,000 276% more expensive over 24 yrs
Jun 30, 1989 Sold (Public Records) $530,000 Jul 24, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,350,000 155% more expensive over 23 yrs
Jan 20, 2000 Sold (Public Records) $810,000 Jun 01, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $1,335,000 65% more expensive over 12 yrs

Av 148% more expensive, av time span 18 yrs

How do you get to the low to mid six figures, to seven figures in less than two decades …post bubble?! Interest rates? Wages? Inflation? Population? So I don’t think it’s that prices were always high, just things have changed. Perhaps prices weren’t allowed fully to correct? If so, how does that bode for the future? And the biggy …does it mean homes are still over-priced? I rest my case 🙂

Yes, I’m well out of it, but I hope that doesn’t exclude me from the debate.

[Jazzman]

BG, a willingness to pay does not necessarily mean homes aren’t over-priced. After all, people showed willingness to buy at the height of the bubble, and homes very clearly weren’t worth what someone was willing to pay. Willingness to pay is a concept borrowed from fine art auction houses, where superfluous cash of high net worth individuals is seeking an alternative place to park itself. The same cannot be said of ‘common or garden’ real estate. ‘Deceived into believing’ might be a more appropriate term that still describes the prevailing ethos.

[Jazzman]

BG, do you think if the tax credits, low interest rates, foreclosure moratoriums, HAMP and other govt. efforts, and the continual prop marketing/lobbying of the RE industry were absent, prices would be where they are now? If you look at S&P’s Case Shiller index over a twenty year period, it’s hard to see how today’s prices are justified in terms of increased incomes. For as long as debt is the cause of price inflation, then it seems doubtful home price appreciation is creating wealth. If a martian was watching, it/he/she would be saying their (humans) problem was debt related, and they are trying to solve it with more debt. I wouldn’t blame them for invading us.

[Jazzman]

^^^Not sure I follow the logic of this. FTBs are already buying the best they can afford. The definition of trading up is buying a better, more expensive home when you are in a better position to do so. How can you bring forward the future? A low interest rate environment doesn’t mean buyers are able to save, it just means affordability is enhanced with over-inflated prices.

[Jazzman]

I think the OP is making a very relevant point, and he/she is right and we all know that. It is the risk that was taken for short term gain, and the rest is being left to fate. To deny otherwise is a bit like leaving the rice on boil overnight and praying the pan doesn’t scorch.

One answer may be to postpone buying until rates and prices have “normalized’, which if the last few years has taught us anything, it may never happen of course. But as someone else is suggesting the so-called move-up market is an invention of the last few decades, fueled by the massive increases in household debt.

Take heart. Every cloud has a silver lining. The smaller your home, the less stuff you need to buy to fill it. It sounds inane, but little truths have broader overtones.

[Jazzman]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
Also I think it’s funny that people think that were going to start suddenly building 500 to 1000 high rise downtown condo buildings for the next 100 million in population we are expecting to grow in the next 30 years.
Sprawl , get used to it, even in NY most people live out in the burbs and commute via train etc…[/quote]
Not sure you can compare NY with LA.

[Jazzman]

Allan, you could be forgiven for thinking Marin county reminds you of parts of Europe, especially the English countryside. There’s even an English country pub there. Not everywhere in France is beautiful, but the contrast is with the very old towns and villages, many of which haven’t changed in centuries.

Recommended trips. If you head to the Cote D’Azure, and drive along the Grande Corniche, overlooking the Med and one of the most famous “village perche”, Eze it is truly breathtaking.

Take the freeways to Provence and the Gorge du Verdon, where the river is the same incredible blue as the sea at Nice. Throw off your clothes as dive in.

Head up into the Alpes Maritime where winding roads carve their way through the hard red rock, and eventually you arrive in Megeve, an Alpine town with old chalet farmhouses, now hotels that retain so much character.

France is the envy of Europe. Italy comes in a close second IMO. If you travel, don’t go on a tour. You will NOT see the real Europe.

[Author]

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