[housingbear]

We want a newer 3Bed house with some sort of yard for around $3000/month.

[housingbear]

We want a newer 3Bed house with some sort of yard for around $3000/month.

[housingbear]

We want a newer 3Bed house with some sort of yard for around $3000/month.

[housingbear]

Rhinopham,
Thank you very much for the information. It was very helpful. For the next phase release I was quoted that HOA and Mello Roos would be $100 each.

I’m sure I’ll be back in touch as timing gets closer with respect to making a purchase. Assuming I actually decide to pull the trigger.

One more question. I assume that If I decide to buy in the next phase release, I’d have to put up some good faith money to hold the home. This next phase wont be move-in ready until December, at which time Pardee could be experiencing a very different situation. So, let’s say in December there is standing inventory at greatly reduced prices – couldn’t I just walk away from my good faith money and pick up one of these lower priced homes with no further penalties or obligations?

Anyone know the answer?

[housingbear]

SD Realtor,
You make some good points. I did not mean that the developers would go the way of the sub-prime lenders, I just meant that they are by no means outside the influences of this market. Pardee wont go down, but they will get hurt.

Thanks for your insight.

[housingbear]

SD Realtor,
Not sure if I can agree with your comment that the developers will be well suited to deal with the downturn. Just talk to the CFO’s of these companies and listen to what they have to say. They’re extremely worried right now and praying that the good fortune they’ve seen thus far in 2007 will continue. These companies got a little too used to the good ol’ days of pre-selling and lottery size demand for their homes. Those days are long gone and now they are scratching their heads on how to deal with limited demand on dirt they paid a premium for 3 years ago. Just ask one of those guys how they feel about carrying existing inventory on the books past their fiscal year end.

[housingbear]

4plex,
No one has a crystal ball – not even you!

You’re preaching to the choir regarding the impending correction. We could have been having this conversation two years ago and we both would not have believed these homes would be selling for what they are today – and we both would have been wrong. Bottom line is that the market is not behaving rationally. Yes, I understand that eventually things will come back around at some point in time, but guess what – life goes on while we wait for what we know is inevitable (at some unknown time). Sometimes a person is willing to take the loss on the chin for reasons that have nothiong to do with money.

At the end of the day, my reasons are my own and I’ll keep them personal if that’s not too much to ask.

[housingbear]

JZTZ – There are going to be about 20-21 phases, all of which are expected to be completed 2 years from now. Phase 12 is the next release, expected to be released at the end of March. There’s supposed to be 172 homes when its all said and done. I would estimate about 80 homes have been sold thus far, however, looking at the MLS data – many of these homes have yet to close escrow.

[housingbear]

Thanks for the helpful post ZK. I very much appeciate the insight.

I guess I really touched a nerve with farbet, sdceller, and 4plexowner.

I truly am just a stickler for wanting to know as much as possible before signing on the preverbial dotted line, no matter how inconsequential some costs may be. BTW, I have not yet convinced myself to buy. In part because I feel very strongly that Derby is going to be hurting after August. I also do not want to perpetuate the good fortune Pardee has received so far this year. They really believe the worst is behind them.

[housingbear]

Okay Okay, put the whip away – I get it.

I found out the other day from a friend that Pardee has completely sold out all of the phases they’ve released thus far. 10 phases so far I think, some of which are still just dirt lots. The next phase is being released at the end of March (about 8-10 homes). Of course the sales people are pumping the next phase as going to be priced higher and there’s a waiting list for the next release – blah, blah, blah.

My question is: Is this just a dead cat bounce being created by buyers that are trying to get a jump on a potential spring run? Any thoughts?

BTW – Of course I’d like nothing more than to squeeze Pardee for a big losss with a low ball offer they’d be forced to take. I think we are in for a very interesting October-December this year. I see prices coming down significantly and the sales offices of these home builders becoming a lot less cocky. But, I’ve been wrong before. I thought this was going to happen two years ago.

[housingbear]

Unethical maybe, in poor character, certainly.

Realtors have effectively created a dead cat bounce in certain communities by placing homes on the market at inflated prices. Theydo this to scare people into thinking the market is turning. Sure this benefits the realtors, but it also perpetuates the bubble and will utlimatley make the landing much harder. I have family in the real estate business and they are all appalled at the dirty tactics being used by reraltors in todays market. Another game being played, is to take a hoem off the market (that has been out there for say more than 90 days) and put it back up as a “NEW” listing a week or two later at a higher price.

Doing what is right and doing what is allowed are very different. Those of us who are trying to become knowledgable about this market should see through these tactics and hopefully stay clear of poor character realtors.

[housingbear]

Thanks Wontanamo. When you say they wouldn’t budge, do you mean they would not drop the price by 100k or that they would not move on the price at all?

In any event, the next few months will be very intersting as the next couple of phases are released. One thing is for certain, the days of preselling these phases are over. Just about eveywhere you go in CV, there remains existing inventory among the new home builders. My guess is that if we see a decrease in the number of $1M + home buyers, these builders will be singing a different tune when October rolls around and the corporate parents of these builders put the pressure on to get the inventory sold before their fiscal year end numbers are locked in.

[housingbear]

Thanks for the insite GN. I agree that the pool of $1M + home buyers should be shrinking and hopefully running dry soon. However, I’ve noticed that the existing/built inventory has unfortunaltely decreased over the past couple of months. My hope is that it is just buyers who may have been intimidated by recent realtor schemes.

One schemes I have witnessed recently is realtors pulling homes off the MLS and marking them as inactive – leading potential buyers to believe that the home was sold, when in reality the agent is just trying to hide the longevity of the home’s time on the market. These homes then re-appear 2 to 3 weeks later as “NEW” listings. Another scheme that seems to be prevalent in todays market is for the listing agent to have a home on the market for say 120 days or more and then increase the asking price, leading potential buyers to believe that the market is running away from them and they feel compelled to move quickly.

I really hope all this nonsense shakes out soon and we can get back to real values.

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