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HLS
Participant[/quote]
Can you explain why or how either of those reports are misleading or inaccurate? Keep in mind, I’m looking at trends, not precise numbers.Neither have I used government numbers for unemployment or inflation, but similarly, their value doesn’t lay in individual numbers, but in trends. And the unemployment rate is flat to falling, and inflation outside of housing is virtually non-existent.
The article implies we are at near crisis levels. Something horrible could happen if all of a sudden all these delinquent loans hit the market as foreclosures. But the risks of that happening have clearly fallen over the last 4 years, and most all indicators of future economic conditions would lead to a conclusion of future diminishing risks. The economy is always at risk created by black swan events. But excepting events like that, what substantiation exists for calling out this particular potential crisis now? Is there an agenda in doing so?[/quote]
Statistics are manipulated which create the data needed to determine the ‘trends’ that you refer to.
I’m just as concerned with the precise numbers because people believe them as they are released.
I disagree that future economic risk has been diminished. I think that the risk is greater than ever.1.The foreclosure COMPARISONS that are reported are a complete joke yet are used and analyzed by virtually everyone EXCEPT the people who really understand what is going on. It’s easy to fool everyone when fools are in charge.
The entire process of selectively manipulating the process creates completely useless comparisons.
COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS. When’experts’ repeat this blather, it becomes even clearer to me how clueless these ‘experts’ are.2.Unemployment reports are another joke. the current U-6 is 14.3% far worse than the sub 8%
that the govt & media repeat like it was gospel.Maybe black swan events aren’t really black swan.
The govt interference & manipulation to keep a ‘black swan’ from becoming a recurring event is VERY real.
The ‘potential crisis’ is not just being called out now, it’s been talked about for the last 8+ years by a tiny minority who just may realize the risks that 99.9% of others refuse to acknowledge, even if it is a remote risk.For many, many people, their personal situation is far worse than it was at the end of 2008; yet according to the ‘trends’ that you are accepting one would believe that the horizon is rosy and ‘we’ have turned a corner.
I’m extremely skeptical of the reports and trends that are released when I know of many individual situations that are diametrical. I disagree that risks have clearly fallen over the last 4 years. For many people, it has never been worse, and about 10 million people have died in this period so their situations are no longer considered.
With any reports that get released using manipulated statistics, it’s garbage in and garbage out.
It’s always possible to view stats and trends with an alternate perspective if one wants to, rather than just blindly accept what ever gets released, reported and repeated without really understanding the content and how data was compiled.
ParticipantYou are free to do whatever you want to do.
I don’t think that you really do understand where I’m coming from nor do you understand the industry.I grew up in several industries (not only real estate) where deals are done with handshakes for many thousands of dollars. A commitment is a commitment. I don’t go back on my word.
Trading stocks and bullion, prices move by the second, up or down. I don’t always guess right but I NEVER renege on an agreement.Your assumption that it’s no big deal to lock a loan and then go elsewhere If rates drop is just a slimy thing to do.
I will be the first one to tell you that there are plenty of slimy, unethical people in the real estate and mortgage industry. Banks and direct lenders have ways of screwing borrowers that people never know about.
The ‘know it alls’ who think that they will always get the best rate by going to a ‘direct lender’ are just ignorant.
Your attitude is I’ll screw them before they screw me.Mortgage Brokers are regulated and similar to insurance brokers, are compensated based on the loan amount, and any excess credit MUST, MUST be passed along to you. there is no longer any incentive to upsell anything to a borrower, that the slimeballs were allowed to do a few years ago.
A direct lender/bank does not have to play by the same rules as brokers. Their misleading pitches sound wonderful to the foolish.
Mortgage brokers have commitments with wholesale lenders. Locks are a HUGE deal. Fallout is when loans are locked and then not delivered.
I know of a broker who took risks and locked loans for people he didn’t know.
His fallout was too large and lenders stopped doing business with him. *this was not due to just one loan* but he suffered greatly.I don’t care whether you ever get a quote from me or not, if you want an explanation of how the system/process really works, feel free to contact me.
Most people have no idea how time consuming & complicated the approval/underwriting process is, and intentionally entering into 2 different agreements knowing that you are going to default on one of them with your attitude just speaks to character.
Don’t worry, you aren’t the only one. It’s pervasive throughout society that people don’t want to be responsible and look for ways to ‘beat the system’ and it’s usually over money. Another post has the same attitude as you.No bank is going to go out of business if you lock a loan and don’t follow through. Deals fall apart all the time. Locking with a broker is a bigger deal to me, not only because of being in the industry, but the way that I was brought up.
Best of luck with your transaction, I hope that it works out for you.
Participant[quote=lookingtobuy] I was thinking about using two different lenders to lock the rate on one and not on the other, in case of the rate decreasing by close.Any thoughts on doing this? Is it worth the extra $400 or so for an additional appraisal.[/quote]
It’s more than just the cost of 2 appraisals & is
highly unfair & unethical on your part. A lock is a serious decision. It’s a verbal commitment that you intend to proceed and your pricing is locked in.
How would you like it if several weeks after you lock, the lender says, “Sorry, we changed our mind. Rates have gone up and we don’t want to honor our commitment”
It’s like telling a stock broker that you want to buy a stock AND place an order at $20 a share and then renege to pay for it because it goes down below $20.There is a lot of work that goes into preparing a loan file and getting it submitted and dealing with disclosures and underwriting. All the parties involved aren’t going to get a penny unless your loan funds with them. Is that fair to them ?
The escrow company has to provide paperwork & info to the lender. I don’t think that an escrow company
will provide this info to 2 different lenders at the same time.There are lenders that I work with that offer a ‘float down’ policy. If rates move down at least a certain amount at a point in the approval process, they will give you an adjustment from the locked rate. It can actually cost them money to do this on the back end, as lock commitments are serious to the parties involved.
I completely understand what you want to do and why, but it really isn’t fair to the one that you lock with. Lock fallout can cause a huge problem in some cases to them that you would never know about.
Participant[quote=kev374]yes, but the properties I am seeing are NOT cash flow positive so I am wondering HOW on earth are investors buying them. I am thinking they are just speculating on future price or rent increases that may not pan out. This is quite a big risk.
For instance, the rents in Orange, California for a 2bd, 950sqft condo with garage is around $1400/month. To be competitive this is what you need to expect…no more.
2bd condos with 1000sqft have asking prices north of $250,000 and some are even asking $300,000. Just do the math… $250,000 with 20% down, $200,000 financed at 4.6%, $1025 PI, $210 property taxes, $100 maintenance, $275 HOA = $1610 and that is in a perfect situation, what if the property remains vacant for a few months of the year? And HOAs and property taxes rise with inflation as well.
For investment it does not pan out at current prices.[/quote]Kev, You are way too logical about this. I TOTALLY agree with you by the way…. BUT, you need to accept reality and that what something is selling for does not mean that it is ‘worth’ it.
Houses, shoes, meals, etc, etc.
BUT if you want to buy one, the price is the price, and if you aren’t going to buy it, perhaps someone else will. It doesn’t make them any smarter, richer, nicer or better looking than you.Without low down payments & low interest rates (backed by govt subsidies) prices would be nowhere near where they are today.
The value of a commercial building is based on its income/cash flow/cap rate. Someone might be foolish to buy a bldg with a 1% or 2% cap rate, and if they have the cash they could if they wanted to, but they might have a hard time getting financing. It’s based on reasonable rental income & expenses.
If the same metrics were applied to residential housing, values(& prices) would be considerably lower in many areas and higher in some others.Most people DO NOT know the value of a house in dollars, (it has a different value to them) but most know the price.
If you want a good ROI, look out of state. Lots of different areas to consider. Get a property manager & some cash flow & depreciation. When you travel to check on your investment you can write off the trip. *consult your tax advisor for details 😉Participant[quote=SK in CV]Article seems a bit ill-timed. LPS reported last week that mortgage delinquencies in May were down more than 25% from a year earlier and at their lowest level in almost 5 years. The claim that “the bureaucracy risks being overwhelmed” is both accurate and horribly misleading. The “bureaucracy” is at its lowest risk since 2008.[/quote]
The risk in 2008 was off the charts. Just because the patient only has 10 things seriously wrong with them rather than 30 things doesn’t mean that they are healthy or are going to survive.
‘Lowest risk since 2008’ still means on life support to me.I’m not saying that either the article OR LPS has the ‘correct’ perspective, but just to point out that there is so much information and misinformation to feed off, one should be aware and understand and realize all the propaganda and crap being thrown around gets used to issue reports, statistics & articles.
I do like your statement of “accurate & horribly misleading”
I totally disagree that the article is “ill-timed”
Do you base your comment one the premise that LPS is 100% correct therefore the article is flawed/incorrect ?
I know for a fact that the way information is reported gets twisted and skewed to meet someone’s agenda.
a) The foreclosure numbers/filings reports are completely misleading and inaccurate.
b) Using the median home price as an important statistic is foolish.
c) Believing the govt released numbers for many things (such as unemployment & inflation) is simply idiotic; yet these last 3 things are relied upon heavily as though they are totally accurate and came from an ethical source without a hidden agenda.Most people are ‘trading’ on the same inaccurate information. You can make a fortune by being right about how the ‘inaccurate information’ is going to be released & you can lose a fortune by being spot on with the truth/reality.
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BG, you made my point for me. There are always people who want to point to Carmel Valley and west of I-5, because there are no price reductions or much inventory, blah,blah,blah.
My perspective is the overall national picture of the nonsense that is going on and the big problem that is looming, although the politicians will do almost anything to prevent what really needs to happen to fix the ‘problem’As the article states, there are different perspectives from the internal watchdogs & the politicians.
July 9, 2013 at 10:18 AM in reply to: how much equity can I take out in a home equity loan (not HELOC)? #763409ParticipantEXACTLY, but these ‘poor’ people cry “I DONT WANT TO SELL” or “IT’S NOT A GOOD TIME” or some other idiotic phrase that is just a variation of an entitlement attitude & living a lifestyle that they cannot really afford.
Then of course there is the ‘new’ govt approved scam…. A REVERSE MORTGAGE!
Get money to spend and stay in the house that you cannot afford.
**DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER**Participant[quote=lookingtobuy]I enjoyed how the second article used May’s pending figures to explain everyone’s rush to buy homes on July’s interest rate increase.[/quote]
Ya, they always have an explanation that defies logic…. But it sounds good to many, and I’m sure that it will be repeated many times, especially by agents who are desperate for a commission.
Kind of like CNBC explaining (at the end of they day) why the stock market went up or down that day.
IF they REALLY knew what they were talking about, they should have been able to tell you this in the morning!!Isn’t it about time for the NAR to come out with a new spin ?
LIKE: Potential buyers don’t want to suddenly be priced out of the market by both rising prices and rising rates.
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Haven’t we heard “buy now or be priced out forever” (at least) once before ??Participantthere are 3 standard contingencies:
Appraisal, Inspection and Loan.
The ‘standard’ default for each is 17 days, HOWEVER it is negotiable.
YOU WANT those contingencies to be as long as possible to protect you, YES it is your way to get out if necessary.
I would NOT recommend removing the appraisal contingency. (UNLESS your situation is unusual)
Whose side is your agent on ???I’m a licensed agent for both real estate & mortgage.
I’m not trying to take business away from anyone, but if you want a 2nd opinion contact me privately.
There’s no charge or obligation.
I’ve helped many Pigg’s through some difficult situations. HLSParticipantLink to article from July 5th: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/06/fridays-catastrophic-surge-in-mortgage-rates.aspx
and one from today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-sentiment-sours-mortgage-rates-164209170.html;_ylt=A2KJNF9FKtxRDh8AmTCTmYlQAnother amazing thing about the media is how they take people’s OPINIONS and twist them into a headline, and then the headline gets repeated like it came from the bible.
Just because it’s on the internet, doesn’t make it true. BONJOUR.Participant[quote=kev374]Interest rates have dipped again from 4.6 to 4.29%[/quote]
Kev, with no disrespect to you, it is RIDICULOUS to refer to an article like that about interest rates. It’s old, and it’s not even news.
It’s as silly as saying that Alaska Airlines stock
(ALK) is $52 (which it was last week)but it’s almost $57 today.You could link to an article from last week that says it’s $52, and you can stand on your head and hold your breath until you pass out;You aren’t going to get that stock for $52 today.
The FACT is that interest rates move day by day and many times INTRA day.
The FACT is that last Friday mortgage rates EXPLODED to their highest levels in several years.
The FACT is that there is no ‘one rate’ that applies to everyone but most people seem to think so and don’t want to bother understanding this.
The FACT is there is a difference between ‘average’ rates that are quoted in articles and what is actually going to apply.
the FACT is there is a difference between a ‘no cost’ rate & a low rate that comes with costs, which changes the APR.You did prove one of my points though in that intelligent people are all ‘trading’ on the same bad information.
There are simple facts that apply to many situations yet most people have opinions and make statements rather than understand that there are facts to override them.Most ‘news’ is not news…. It’s press releases, with a spin. It’s someone (who was paid) releasing a report with a spin on it to create an illusion and support THEIR position.
The govt constantly releases ‘reports’ with misleading statistics & numbers. BILLIONS of dollars get traded on this ‘news’ some people make small fortunes, others lose huge amounts of money on these reports. They were right or wrong…..
in many cases, a month or two later this original report ‘quietly’ gets revised, without nearly as much attention as the original report received.
It turns out that the people who lost money and thought they were wrong, were actually right, but their money has already been lost.Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Inventory is only going up because prices have gone up. If prices retreat I think the market will go back to mostly distressed sales again (for the most part).
I also think the recent rise in interest rates are having a much bigger effect than most realtors want to tell you.[/quote]
I’ll stick my neck out and say that inventory is going up because houses are not selling as fast as they were. The rise in prices was not enough to get people in trouble to sell their house.
It gets to a point that people just cannot wait any longer for various reasons, including death, divorce, job transfer, lack of income, loss of tenant etc. Those who wanted just a little bit more than where the market was a month or so ago may have missed the boat.
There was no reason for houses to go up, they were not cheap, but because interest rates were so low, people only cared about their monthly payment, not how much they were paying.
there are always people that must sell for one reason or another. They do not have the luxury of listening to propaganda from the NAR about how much better the market is going to be in 12 months.
Whatever many (clueless) agents tell anybody is just wishful thinking and poppycock that has been beat into them. The recent rise in rates has created a shock to the system. I’m willing to bet that contracts signed in July will be a disappointing number, and then the industry will put a spin on it
Participant[quote=spdrun]This may sound really mean, but more short sales on the market would suit me. Frankly, this is looking a lot like what happened after the 2009-10 housing tax credit expired.[/quote]
It’s not mean at all! There are still many people living in houses that they really cannot afford, lulled into believing that they have some sort of right to live an entire lifestyle way beyond their means. It’s what the govt wants (and needs)
This is a sickness of several generations and is a huge pyramid scheme created by the ‘govt’ to support an artificial economy that is based on debt, (which is just another word for living beyond one’s means)
The govt is going to continue to control the ebb & flow.I said it years ago and I will say it again.
Foreclosures are not the problem, they are the solution. The govt doesn’t want a solution though. It would destroy the economy.
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The rise is interest rates has made a HUGE difference in the last 30 days. It is human nature for virtually everybody to hesitate when something has gone up in price 35% in a short period and unless you really need it, most assume that it will come back down or at least go on sale, and are going to wait.I know of 1 fairly decent sized north county zip code that only has (2) 4bd/3ba 2250 sq ft+ houses for sale in the $400K-$500K price range.
This doesn’t mean they are cheap, it doesn’t mean they are worth more, it doesn’t mean the market is hot but many people will make assumptions and other nonsense based on simple facts that there are only 2 houses for sale.ParticipantInterest rates have EXPLODED and there is no way of knowing what will happen next.
30yr fixed that was 3.50% 60 days ago is now 4.75%.
Market has definitely turned in some areas.
I think that the party is over for the moment.‘Shortage of inventory’ does NOT mean that houses are worth more or should be going up.
Days on market, median prices and many other stats that are thrown around is utter foolishness to me but the accepted norm to most people, sheeple and agents that it all somehow means something really important. (It’s just noise)The ‘market’ is in shock. What very few people seem to realize in the macro is how idiotic the ‘housing market’ is and it’s mostly based on the greater fool theory combined with ‘fear’ of missing out along with the availability of financing to complete a purchase.
In the short to mid term, I see prices coming down in many markets once people come to grip with reality. ‘How much’ remains to be seen, based on how the desperate & impatient people respond.
ParticipantI do not believe that the ‘market’ is ‘red hot’ any more, maybe in the lowest price range, because people are being scared into buying and that that they are ‘going to miss out’
A MLS listing is instant when it gets listed.
There is no (*VALID*) reason to list it if the agent has a solid offer, unless they want back-ups. There is no time lag that makes it an ‘unofficial’ listing.It is possible to have an offer the 1st day though.
You are referring to 3rd party websites that sometimes use outdated information. They automatically track MLS but can be delayed.
There are other sites that do not track MLS, an agent has to list the property there manually.
If they do not do it at the same time as they upload MLS, it gets distorted. Another problem is that the manual sites need to have a manual update when an offer is accepted or it still shows as ‘active’ but it’s not.A lot of the statistical info is inaccurate but quoted like it is from the bible. (You are also dealing with some sales-people that have no ethics)
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