[garysears]

Good news! Forbes.com is predicting a recovery (does that mean prices have to decline?) in Q2’08 for San Diego. We can then expect 5%+ appreciation!

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_Forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=5008065

I love the indepth reporting. Seems strange that there is absolutely no justification for the prediction other than the big “Forbes” name. I’m sure they built a “model”, but nice choice of data. Lets see…randomly call a “bottom” with no supporting data or estimate of total price decline, decline %, or nominal bottom price. Then create the expectation for the continuation of the madness. Don’t give a cost basis for the appreciation so you don’t have to bother with any downturn prediction. Don’t specifically say WHEN that increase will begin or how long it will last. Unreal. So basically this guy is predicting an overcorrection of unknown extent and guessing it will come back because it has in the past. I guess all an expert for Forbes has to be able to do is explain what would make a chart look like a “V”, “U”, or “L” and then randomly pick a good positive number. I’m so underpaid. I’m one of the most undereducated posters (financially speaking) on the board and I think I could fake a similar article. I would include lucky lotto numbers for each city in another column.

[garysears]

Good news! Forbes.com is predicting a recovery (does that mean prices have to decline?) in Q2’08 for San Diego. We can then expect 5%+ appreciation!

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_Forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=5008065

I love the indepth reporting. Seems strange that there is absolutely no justification for the prediction other than the big “Forbes” name. I’m sure they built a “model”, but nice choice of data. Lets see…randomly call a “bottom” with no supporting data or estimate of total price decline, decline %, or nominal bottom price. Then create the expectation for the continuation of the madness. Don’t give a cost basis for the appreciation so you don’t have to bother with any downturn prediction. Don’t specifically say WHEN that increase will begin or how long it will last. Unreal. So basically this guy is predicting an overcorrection of unknown extent and guessing it will come back because it has in the past. I guess all an expert for Forbes has to be able to do is explain what would make a chart look like a “V”, “U”, or “L” and then randomly pick a good positive number. I’m so underpaid. I’m one of the most undereducated posters (financially speaking) on the board and I think I could fake a similar article. I would include lucky lotto numbers for each city in another column.

[garysears]

Yeah, I’m sure it was a “get a good rate now before you are prices out forever” pitch. But the point is I hadn’t heard anything negative about loan rates at all on the radio before now. I’m not ready to assume any mortgage broker’s honesty upfront.

[garysears]

Yeah, I’m sure it was a “get a good rate now before you are prices out forever” pitch. But the point is I hadn’t heard anything negative about loan rates at all on the radio before now. I’m not ready to assume any mortgage broker’s honesty upfront.

[garysears]

Yeah, I’m sure it was a “get a good rate now before you are prices out forever” pitch. But the point is I hadn’t heard anything negative about loan rates at all on the radio before now. I’m not ready to assume any mortgage broker’s honesty upfront.

[garysears]

I submit this strange case from Spring Valley for your viewing pleasure:

1628 PRESIOCA ST #23 91977 2/1 $160,000
1628 Presioca St #17 91977 2/1 $283,000

The past sales history makes #23 almost certainly a short sale. It could be a pipedream. The bank would probably laugh. The previous sale was recorded around $250K. But I can say the low short sale listing are driving down price expectations. I can see almost daily the prices creeping down. I know I’m talking about El Cajon/ Spring Valley condos and not S.D. SFRs, but this will have an eventual effect I bet.

Check out Stone Ridge Condos at 5707 Baltimore Drive in La Mesa. I found the sales flyer in my car today for their phase one release. I don’t know if they’ve sold any units. Looks like they have slashed prices 40K across the board. Was $365K and up now $320K and up. That was a big reduction considering they just started selling phase one in the last month I believe.

[garysears]

I submit this strange case from Spring Valley for your viewing pleasure:

1628 PRESIOCA ST #23 91977 2/1 $160,000
1628 Presioca St #17 91977 2/1 $283,000

The past sales history makes #23 almost certainly a short sale. It could be a pipedream. The bank would probably laugh. The previous sale was recorded around $250K. But I can say the low short sale listing are driving down price expectations. I can see almost daily the prices creeping down. I know I’m talking about El Cajon/ Spring Valley condos and not S.D. SFRs, but this will have an eventual effect I bet.

Check out Stone Ridge Condos at 5707 Baltimore Drive in La Mesa. I found the sales flyer in my car today for their phase one release. I don’t know if they’ve sold any units. Looks like they have slashed prices 40K across the board. Was $365K and up now $320K and up. That was a big reduction considering they just started selling phase one in the last month I believe.

[garysears]

I submit this strange case from Spring Valley for your viewing pleasure:

1628 PRESIOCA ST #23 91977 2/1 $160,000
1628 Presioca St #17 91977 2/1 $283,000

The past sales history makes #23 almost certainly a short sale. It could be a pipedream. The bank would probably laugh. The previous sale was recorded around $250K. But I can say the low short sale listing are driving down price expectations. I can see almost daily the prices creeping down. I know I’m talking about El Cajon/ Spring Valley condos and not S.D. SFRs, but this will have an eventual effect I bet.

Check out Stone Ridge Condos at 5707 Baltimore Drive in La Mesa. I found the sales flyer in my car today for their phase one release. I don’t know if they’ve sold any units. Looks like they have slashed prices 40K across the board. Was $365K and up now $320K and up. That was a big reduction considering they just started selling phase one in the last month I believe.

[garysears]

You are right. It is a new permanently high plateau.

I guess the only ones who don’t get it are the renters. Those are some pretty compelling arguments. I feel pretty dumb for undervaluing San Diego. I want to pay double! I’m going to the office tomorrow to renegotiate my rental contract upwards…

Once I start paying the new correctly valued rent, I can only imagine how much better my S.D. experience will be. It’s going to be awesome!

I was renting a home in San Carlos last year for $1,975. It recently listed for $600K so I believe we’ve just hit bottom. I want to get it before an astute investor jumps on the 300X rent multiple. Can anyone hook me up with a 110% LTV I/O?

P.S. Just imagine if people were to begin valuing speculative appreciation over plain ownership. The lid would absolutely fly off the market!!!!

[garysears]

You are right. It is a new permanently high plateau.

I guess the only ones who don’t get it are the renters. Those are some pretty compelling arguments. I feel pretty dumb for undervaluing San Diego. I want to pay double! I’m going to the office tomorrow to renegotiate my rental contract upwards…

Once I start paying the new correctly valued rent, I can only imagine how much better my S.D. experience will be. It’s going to be awesome!

I was renting a home in San Carlos last year for $1,975. It recently listed for $600K so I believe we’ve just hit bottom. I want to get it before an astute investor jumps on the 300X rent multiple. Can anyone hook me up with a 110% LTV I/O?

P.S. Just imagine if people were to begin valuing speculative appreciation over plain ownership. The lid would absolutely fly off the market!!!!

[garysears]

You are right. It is a new permanently high plateau.

I guess the only ones who don’t get it are the renters. Those are some pretty compelling arguments. I feel pretty dumb for undervaluing San Diego. I want to pay double! I’m going to the office tomorrow to renegotiate my rental contract upwards…

Once I start paying the new correctly valued rent, I can only imagine how much better my S.D. experience will be. It’s going to be awesome!

I was renting a home in San Carlos last year for $1,975. It recently listed for $600K so I believe we’ve just hit bottom. I want to get it before an astute investor jumps on the 300X rent multiple. Can anyone hook me up with a 110% LTV I/O?

P.S. Just imagine if people were to begin valuing speculative appreciation over plain ownership. The lid would absolutely fly off the market!!!!

[garysears]

I don’t think a lot of those people are really motivated. I see allegedly motivated sellers listing 50K above identical untits in the same complex. “Motivated” may mean “desperate without equity but I’m still hoping to not lose real dollars”. Also I have noticed some listings that jack the listing price up and down by 100 bucks to keep a fresh “reduced” listing price. I think “motivated” and “price reduced” are only marketing ploys. Ziprealty has created a new search function for the general public for “short sale”. Having said that, I do the same thing.

[garysears]

I don’t think a lot of those people are really motivated. I see allegedly motivated sellers listing 50K above identical untits in the same complex. “Motivated” may mean “desperate without equity but I’m still hoping to not lose real dollars”. Also I have noticed some listings that jack the listing price up and down by 100 bucks to keep a fresh “reduced” listing price. I think “motivated” and “price reduced” are only marketing ploys. Ziprealty has created a new search function for the general public for “short sale”. Having said that, I do the same thing.

[garysears]

I don’t think a lot of those people are really motivated. I see allegedly motivated sellers listing 50K above identical untits in the same complex. “Motivated” may mean “desperate without equity but I’m still hoping to not lose real dollars”. Also I have noticed some listings that jack the listing price up and down by 100 bucks to keep a fresh “reduced” listing price. I think “motivated” and “price reduced” are only marketing ploys. Ziprealty has created a new search function for the general public for “short sale”. Having said that, I do the same thing.

[garysears]

I think the tsunami analogy for Bandar Ache in Indonesia is probably even better than intended if you predict complete collapse for our markets. I observed first hand the immediate aftermath of the tsunami over about 80 miles of coastline on the NW side of the island. I personally captered numerous aerial photos of villages that were completely erased except for foundations. At one time I counted them in my head and could think of at least 12 separate cases. It was incredible how the water took away nearly everything in many areas, leaving little trace of the original structures and even completely changing the shoreline. I hope that is not really the future for our markets. The waves in some cases deposited boats miles inland and many people were likely killed who never even considered the sea a threat. The single coastal road which was the only “exit” for the hundreds of thousands of people living between the mountains and coast was impassible in a few dozen areas. Helicopters were the only way to deliver relief for weeks until the road was rebuilt. I’m not sure how the helicopter analogy really fits. But you could argue the road represents perceived market liquidity.

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