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garysears
ParticipantTG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)
05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.
I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.
I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!
ParticipantTG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)
05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.
I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.
I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!
ParticipantTG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)
05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.
I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.
I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!
ParticipantThere is a good forum on that project over on sdlookup.com. One poster listed all the auction “sale prices”. You have to wade through a lot of posts to find it but it is in there. The problem noted on that thread is the same as with all the auctions. There is an undisclosed reserve price set by the builder/bank. The opening bids are there just to attract interest and suckers. The builder/bank still has to accept the offer. The other problem noted is there were apparently current residents in the project who decided to attend to bid up the prices. At least one of them ended up “winning”. I’m sure the only way to see which units actually close is to check the county records the next few months. There are much bigger problems than obtaining financing for the “winning” bidders. The auction was a marketing tactic only to solicite buyers and test the market. The real market prices reflected by the serious bids were probably mostly rejected.
ParticipantThere is a good forum on that project over on sdlookup.com. One poster listed all the auction “sale prices”. You have to wade through a lot of posts to find it but it is in there. The problem noted on that thread is the same as with all the auctions. There is an undisclosed reserve price set by the builder/bank. The opening bids are there just to attract interest and suckers. The builder/bank still has to accept the offer. The other problem noted is there were apparently current residents in the project who decided to attend to bid up the prices. At least one of them ended up “winning”. I’m sure the only way to see which units actually close is to check the county records the next few months. There are much bigger problems than obtaining financing for the “winning” bidders. The auction was a marketing tactic only to solicite buyers and test the market. The real market prices reflected by the serious bids were probably mostly rejected.
ParticipantThere is a good forum on that project over on sdlookup.com. One poster listed all the auction “sale prices”. You have to wade through a lot of posts to find it but it is in there. The problem noted on that thread is the same as with all the auctions. There is an undisclosed reserve price set by the builder/bank. The opening bids are there just to attract interest and suckers. The builder/bank still has to accept the offer. The other problem noted is there were apparently current residents in the project who decided to attend to bid up the prices. At least one of them ended up “winning”. I’m sure the only way to see which units actually close is to check the county records the next few months. There are much bigger problems than obtaining financing for the “winning” bidders. The auction was a marketing tactic only to solicite buyers and test the market. The real market prices reflected by the serious bids were probably mostly rejected.
ParticipantThere is a good forum on that project over on sdlookup.com. One poster listed all the auction “sale prices”. You have to wade through a lot of posts to find it but it is in there. The problem noted on that thread is the same as with all the auctions. There is an undisclosed reserve price set by the builder/bank. The opening bids are there just to attract interest and suckers. The builder/bank still has to accept the offer. The other problem noted is there were apparently current residents in the project who decided to attend to bid up the prices. At least one of them ended up “winning”. I’m sure the only way to see which units actually close is to check the county records the next few months. There are much bigger problems than obtaining financing for the “winning” bidders. The auction was a marketing tactic only to solicite buyers and test the market. The real market prices reflected by the serious bids were probably mostly rejected.
ParticipantI think this is an incredible loan. I wouldn’t mind taking advantage of such an ill conceived program designed to get unqualified people into the peak of the mania.
Why overpay now to do it?
It will be a double bonus later on to buy a house at a reasonable price plus get better than market financing. No one should feel pressured to buy immediately due to any such program. Price matters more than financing terms or monthly payment.
Anyone really think these programs are going anywhere soon? My guess is more government intervention and not less as this plays out.
It doesn’t seem likely wages will dramatically inflate to stabilize prices. Isn’t it normal for wage inflation to lag real inflation? The claim that a 4% wage increase is outpacing inflation would be hotly contested by many.
My personal real estate bet is I can pick a more reasonable entry point into the market before wages show any substantial increase.
Don’t forget about financing in the face of obvious inflation. Even if incomes rise somewhat, financing is only likely to get more difficult. The net result will still be declining property values. I don’t see how devaluation of the dollar even matters. It is basic supply and demand.
Wage inflation is swimming upstream against both the financing and distressed inventory trends.
Stay patient.
ParticipantI think this is an incredible loan. I wouldn’t mind taking advantage of such an ill conceived program designed to get unqualified people into the peak of the mania.
Why overpay now to do it?
It will be a double bonus later on to buy a house at a reasonable price plus get better than market financing. No one should feel pressured to buy immediately due to any such program. Price matters more than financing terms or monthly payment.
Anyone really think these programs are going anywhere soon? My guess is more government intervention and not less as this plays out.
It doesn’t seem likely wages will dramatically inflate to stabilize prices. Isn’t it normal for wage inflation to lag real inflation? The claim that a 4% wage increase is outpacing inflation would be hotly contested by many.
My personal real estate bet is I can pick a more reasonable entry point into the market before wages show any substantial increase.
Don’t forget about financing in the face of obvious inflation. Even if incomes rise somewhat, financing is only likely to get more difficult. The net result will still be declining property values. I don’t see how devaluation of the dollar even matters. It is basic supply and demand.
Wage inflation is swimming upstream against both the financing and distressed inventory trends.
Stay patient.
ParticipantI think this is an incredible loan. I wouldn’t mind taking advantage of such an ill conceived program designed to get unqualified people into the peak of the mania.
Why overpay now to do it?
It will be a double bonus later on to buy a house at a reasonable price plus get better than market financing. No one should feel pressured to buy immediately due to any such program. Price matters more than financing terms or monthly payment.
Anyone really think these programs are going anywhere soon? My guess is more government intervention and not less as this plays out.
It doesn’t seem likely wages will dramatically inflate to stabilize prices. Isn’t it normal for wage inflation to lag real inflation? The claim that a 4% wage increase is outpacing inflation would be hotly contested by many.
My personal real estate bet is I can pick a more reasonable entry point into the market before wages show any substantial increase.
Don’t forget about financing in the face of obvious inflation. Even if incomes rise somewhat, financing is only likely to get more difficult. The net result will still be declining property values. I don’t see how devaluation of the dollar even matters. It is basic supply and demand.
Wage inflation is swimming upstream against both the financing and distressed inventory trends.
Stay patient.
ParticipantI agree. Problem is no bank is going to accept that big a cut off the perceived “market value”. Making an offer now is a waste of time. So many people are having a hard time telling the difference between what someone paid a few years ago and what the few buyers left today are willing to pay. I am a different kind of buyer than was out there the last several years. I didn’t even consider myself a buyer then. I do now.
The current “pent up” demand is probably going to be a little more cautious on the downside. I know what I can afford and am willing to wait for it. I didn’t buy during the last 4 years and am in no hurry to buy now that things are finally headed in the direction of affordability.
I offered 120K on a 181K REO listing. Looks like I’ll have to wait a few years for that kind of reality to sink into the market.
ParticipantI agree. Problem is no bank is going to accept that big a cut off the perceived “market value”. Making an offer now is a waste of time. So many people are having a hard time telling the difference between what someone paid a few years ago and what the few buyers left today are willing to pay. I am a different kind of buyer than was out there the last several years. I didn’t even consider myself a buyer then. I do now.
The current “pent up” demand is probably going to be a little more cautious on the downside. I know what I can afford and am willing to wait for it. I didn’t buy during the last 4 years and am in no hurry to buy now that things are finally headed in the direction of affordability.
I offered 120K on a 181K REO listing. Looks like I’ll have to wait a few years for that kind of reality to sink into the market.
ParticipantI agree. Problem is no bank is going to accept that big a cut off the perceived “market value”. Making an offer now is a waste of time. So many people are having a hard time telling the difference between what someone paid a few years ago and what the few buyers left today are willing to pay. I am a different kind of buyer than was out there the last several years. I didn’t even consider myself a buyer then. I do now.
The current “pent up” demand is probably going to be a little more cautious on the downside. I know what I can afford and am willing to wait for it. I didn’t buy during the last 4 years and am in no hurry to buy now that things are finally headed in the direction of affordability.
I offered 120K on a 181K REO listing. Looks like I’ll have to wait a few years for that kind of reality to sink into the market.
ParticipantPerhaps I meant “entertain” and not “accept”. Shows how much I pay attention. I guess that makes it BWEOB instead of SWEOB.
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