Save TG, he’s reaching for the knife

[temeculaguy]

While this past year I have offered advice to many here and taken advice from many others, I find myself at a crossroads. A self professed reverse flipper, my first rental experience since the 80’s has me at my wits end, soon to be a foreclosure after only a few months in it and not wanting to sign a year lease in a new place. Summer or fall 08 was my target re-entry or re-evaluation date but forces beyond my control is making February a likely candidate. Since my life is a mirror image of “a family affair” (minus Mr. French), my needs are a low maintenance 3+ bdr 2000+ sq ft but with a three car garage in one of the snootier areas of Temecula (I know that the concept of a snooty area in Temecula is almost hard to comprehend for my S.D. friends). Well I’m finding them in my target price range, sub 2003 pricing in many instances and my hand is nearly outstretched to catch that falling knife and I need help from my friends. There are many examples of 400k range in the better parts of Redhawk and quite frankly I need people to tell me that 300k will happen. Case in point:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1148858

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1097879

against the backdrop of this and many like it in the same tract asking 600-800k still!!

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1281469

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164480

I am already familiar with the neighborhood, that is not the help I am looking for, what I am seeking is a rational justification for avoiding a neighborhood that was previously 600-800k and is now starting to show up with some at or near 400k, albeit brown lawners. For those of you unfamiliar with my plight, I can handily afford it with conventional financing, I am discerning (aka picky as hell) and it’s no longer an issue of affordability but a strategy at this point. While I plan to live in chosen house for a decade, I don’t want to throw away my money and in a sick way I am afraid to change sides and abandon this site, Save TG, talk me out of it. In the immortal words of Herb Brooks “If you lose this game you will take it to your %^$$&& grave.”

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[temeculaguy]

Flu, squatting is out but a nice idea, I’m a running water kind of guy.

Snail, I kinda like the castle thingy, I plan on getting a paper crown from burger king and putting it on to answer the door.

Bear, I’m with you but affordability isn’t the issue, 400k isn’t a stretch, but 300k would allow me even more discretionary income to invest (or spend on drinking, gambling and women of ill repute, o.k maybe not ill repute but below standard repute for sure). I actually laugh at my own frugality because I already did what you suggested, lived like a pauper on a kings salary and eventually gave in and rented something reasonable, my pauper days are over but it is still good advice. Realistically I can afford suitable housing, I’m just a cheap bastard who’s little bubble theory is getting to the point of insanity. I’m well into the six figures, no debt, loads of cash in money market accounts and stocks and I’m hemming and hawing over another 50k drop in prices, I feel almost petty. I agree that the the uber bears hoping for $75 houses are dreaming but is 300k out of line for the properties I listed? It’s no longer about money, my strategy has paid off thus far and have saved 200k, now it’s about winning, no matter where I buy I wan’t to have paid the least, dammit. It’s all about respect at the block party. Respected by men, desired by women, you get the picture, it’s down to ego now.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: Prices in this area will drop to $100-$120 per sq. ft. and not a penny higher……………(I’m betting on $100 per ft.) I’ve read enough of your posts to know that you are a savvy guy who understands what is going on and where the market is going to go………..so, if you choose to catch a falling knife, at least you won’t be surprised if the prices fall further after you buy.
Good luck to you whatever you choose to do.

[TheBreeze]

From previous posts, I believe you said you were using a rent multiplier to decide when to buy, correct? If so, are you using today’s rents?

If I were trying to convince myself not to buy, I would try to determine what happened to rents during the last downturn in housing/recession. If you can’t get your hands on historical rent data, then you could attempt to make your own SWAG guess about rents using some fraction of the current number of expected abandoned houses.

For example, what would happen to rents if 70% of houses bought in Temecula since 2005 went into foreclosure and 25% of those foreclosures became rentals? Let’s say there is 100,000 square feet of rental property currently in Temecula renting for on average $100/square foot (no idea if these numbers are anywhere close to being correct). This gives us a total rental demand of $10 million (something tells me this is way low). In any event, using the theoretical numbers above, if the foreclosures add another 30,000 square feet, assuming that the demand for rentals doesn’t change (it may even go down in a recession), then you get an average rent price of $10 million/130,000 square feet ~ $77 per square foot.

As an alternative to trying to figure out the numbers for the above calculation, maybe you could just use a rental multiplier assuming 2003 rental prices. In any event, my point is that the rent multiplier you are using today may be based on an artificially low supply of rentals due to so many current and future unoccupied houses and a higher demand number for rentals than may exist in the future if we are going into a recession.

For the sake of full disclosure, I’ve never owned real estate in my life and there is a good chance I never will. However, it’s always a good idea to play around with whatever metrics you are using to at least try and get a feel for the worst- and best-case scenarios.

[NotCranky]

If you buy, buy the best property under or as near to your 300k cap as you can go. Given your financial picture, there is no way in hell that is going to hurt you much. If the big old hunking luxury house on the golf course drops to a point where you feel like you will be laughing all the way to the bank if you take it, buy it too, if you still want it at that time. DCA for Temecula homes.

[bearvine]

Clarification: WIN TG-

Thanks for the clarification on what you want, now to me the answer for you TG is clear, WIN. I wasn’t saying live frugally, but live easy to move. Go get that 50″ Vizio, have nice furniture, have nice clothes, just not too much crap in the house so it is easy to move. Stock the place with the best liquor, and you are good to go.

We have some things in common, I buy lux cars 2 years old not because I can’t afford to buy them new, but because I get it it cheaper and that’s the way I beat the system and win. Clearly then, If you buy now even at a great deal, it will piss you off when the house next door goes REO and sells for $90k less 6 months later.

I still have some of the brochures from the areas I liked over the years in Temecula, I kept the good ones so that I knew what the resales were all about. Obviously there are people in Redhawk that paid $150 in the late 90’s, but many of those neighborhoods simply look to old. US Homes/Lennar 3000sq ft homes could’ve been had in 01 for $300. Can it get back there? Absolutely.

The area you posted some homes on Fairway Estates, the nicer section where Saint Tisbury is, many of the original owners flipped their homes in 05 and 06 at high prices, bet one will see some of those REO. Not to mention the 1st phasers didnt pay high 5’s and 6’s.

An REO on Mumm in Morgan sold for under 4, and there is another one right now under 4 waiting for you if you really want to buy.

Prices WILL continue to drop.

So my advice on the new plan:

RENT nice, live simply but with nice stuff, drive the car you want, and enjoy your wine women and song.

Continue to build that war chest, decide what percentage of such that you are willing to risk, and use your obvious intelligence and due diligence skills to go high risk high reward on that extra scratch you save from renting vs owning.

When one of the five investments you make pays off with a 10-20x, and house prices have plummeted, you will be KING of Temecula moving into a Santiago Estates custom for under $1m.

[bearvine]

Clarification: WIN TG-

Thanks for the clarification on what you want, now to me the answer for you TG is clear, WIN. I wasn’t saying live frugally, but live easy to move. Go get that 50″ Vizio, have nice furniture, have nice clothes, just not too much crap in the house so it is easy to move. Stock the place with the best liquor, and you are good to go.

We have some things in common, I buy lux cars 2 years old not because I can’t afford to buy them new, but because I get it it cheaper and that’s the way I beat the system and win. Clearly then, If you buy now even at a great deal, it will piss you off when the house next door goes REO and sells for $90k less 6 months later.

I still have some of the brochures from the areas I liked over the years in Temecula, I kept the good ones so that I knew what the resales were all about. Obviously there are people in Redhawk that paid $150 in the late 90’s, but many of those neighborhoods simply look to old. US Homes/Lennar 3000sq ft homes could’ve been had in 01 for $300. Can it get back there? Absolutely.

The area you posted some homes on Fairway Estates, the nicer section where Saint Tisbury is, many of the original owners flipped their homes in 05 and 06 at high prices, bet one will see some of those REO. Not to mention the 1st phasers didnt pay high 5’s and 6’s.

An REO on Mumm in Morgan sold for under 4, and there is another one right now under 4 waiting for you if you really want to buy.

Prices WILL continue to drop.

So my advice on the new plan:

RENT nice, live simply but with nice stuff, drive the car you want, and enjoy your wine women and song.

Continue to build that war chest, decide what percentage of such that you are willing to risk, and use your obvious intelligence and due diligence skills to go high risk high reward on that extra scratch you save from renting vs owning.

When one of the five investments you make pays off with a 10-20x, and house prices have plummeted, you will be KING of Temecula moving into a Santiago Estates custom for under $1m.

[bearvine]

Clarification: WIN TG-

Thanks for the clarification on what you want, now to me the answer for you TG is clear, WIN. I wasn’t saying live frugally, but live easy to move. Go get that 50″ Vizio, have nice furniture, have nice clothes, just not too much crap in the house so it is easy to move. Stock the place with the best liquor, and you are good to go.

We have some things in common, I buy lux cars 2 years old not because I can’t afford to buy them new, but because I get it it cheaper and that’s the way I beat the system and win. Clearly then, If you buy now even at a great deal, it will piss you off when the house next door goes REO and sells for $90k less 6 months later.

I still have some of the brochures from the areas I liked over the years in Temecula, I kept the good ones so that I knew what the resales were all about. Obviously there are people in Redhawk that paid $150 in the late 90’s, but many of those neighborhoods simply look to old. US Homes/Lennar 3000sq ft homes could’ve been had in 01 for $300. Can it get back there? Absolutely.

The area you posted some homes on Fairway Estates, the nicer section where Saint Tisbury is, many of the original owners flipped their homes in 05 and 06 at high prices, bet one will see some of those REO. Not to mention the 1st phasers didnt pay high 5’s and 6’s.

An REO on Mumm in Morgan sold for under 4, and there is another one right now under 4 waiting for you if you really want to buy.

Prices WILL continue to drop.

So my advice on the new plan:

RENT nice, live simply but with nice stuff, drive the car you want, and enjoy your wine women and song.

Continue to build that war chest, decide what percentage of such that you are willing to risk, and use your obvious intelligence and due diligence skills to go high risk high reward on that extra scratch you save from renting vs owning.

When one of the five investments you make pays off with a 10-20x, and house prices have plummeted, you will be KING of Temecula moving into a Santiago Estates custom for under $1m.

[bearvine]

Clarification: WIN TG-

Thanks for the clarification on what you want, now to me the answer for you TG is clear, WIN. I wasn’t saying live frugally, but live easy to move. Go get that 50″ Vizio, have nice furniture, have nice clothes, just not too much crap in the house so it is easy to move. Stock the place with the best liquor, and you are good to go.

We have some things in common, I buy lux cars 2 years old not because I can’t afford to buy them new, but because I get it it cheaper and that’s the way I beat the system and win. Clearly then, If you buy now even at a great deal, it will piss you off when the house next door goes REO and sells for $90k less 6 months later.

I still have some of the brochures from the areas I liked over the years in Temecula, I kept the good ones so that I knew what the resales were all about. Obviously there are people in Redhawk that paid $150 in the late 90’s, but many of those neighborhoods simply look to old. US Homes/Lennar 3000sq ft homes could’ve been had in 01 for $300. Can it get back there? Absolutely.

The area you posted some homes on Fairway Estates, the nicer section where Saint Tisbury is, many of the original owners flipped their homes in 05 and 06 at high prices, bet one will see some of those REO. Not to mention the 1st phasers didnt pay high 5’s and 6’s.

An REO on Mumm in Morgan sold for under 4, and there is another one right now under 4 waiting for you if you really want to buy.

Prices WILL continue to drop.

So my advice on the new plan:

RENT nice, live simply but with nice stuff, drive the car you want, and enjoy your wine women and song.

Continue to build that war chest, decide what percentage of such that you are willing to risk, and use your obvious intelligence and due diligence skills to go high risk high reward on that extra scratch you save from renting vs owning.

When one of the five investments you make pays off with a 10-20x, and house prices have plummeted, you will be KING of Temecula moving into a Santiago Estates custom for under $1m.

[ocrenter]

this is what I would do.

On December 15th, write up 10 offers on 10 targets within the low to mid $400k range.

offer $350k for all of them, with 20% down and financing all ready. tell them you are able to close by December 31st.

I bet somebody would bite.

if you have to move by end of Feb ’08, these are foreclosure properties so you’ll need a month or two to get them all ready for the move.

[ocrenter]

this is what I would do.

On December 15th, write up 10 offers on 10 targets within the low to mid $400k range.

offer $350k for all of them, with 20% down and financing all ready. tell them you are able to close by December 31st.

I bet somebody would bite.

if you have to move by end of Feb ’08, these are foreclosure properties so you’ll need a month or two to get them all ready for the move.

[ocrenter]

this is what I would do.

On December 15th, write up 10 offers on 10 targets within the low to mid $400k range.

offer $350k for all of them, with 20% down and financing all ready. tell them you are able to close by December 31st.

I bet somebody would bite.

if you have to move by end of Feb ’08, these are foreclosure properties so you’ll need a month or two to get them all ready for the move.

[ocrenter]

this is what I would do.

On December 15th, write up 10 offers on 10 targets within the low to mid $400k range.

offer $350k for all of them, with 20% down and financing all ready. tell them you are able to close by December 31st.

I bet somebody would bite.

if you have to move by end of Feb ’08, these are foreclosure properties so you’ll need a month or two to get them all ready for the move.

[NotCranky]

If you buy, buy the best property under or as near to your 300k cap as you can go. Given your financial picture, there is no way in hell that is going to hurt you much. If the big old hunking luxury house on the golf course drops to a point where you feel like you will be laughing all the way to the bank if you take it, buy it too, if you still want it at that time. DCA for Temecula homes.

[NotCranky]

If you buy, buy the best property under or as near to your 300k cap as you can go. Given your financial picture, there is no way in hell that is going to hurt you much. If the big old hunking luxury house on the golf course drops to a point where you feel like you will be laughing all the way to the bank if you take it, buy it too, if you still want it at that time. DCA for Temecula homes.

[NotCranky]

If you buy, buy the best property under or as near to your 300k cap as you can go. Given your financial picture, there is no way in hell that is going to hurt you much. If the big old hunking luxury house on the golf course drops to a point where you feel like you will be laughing all the way to the bank if you take it, buy it too, if you still want it at that time. DCA for Temecula homes.

[TheBreeze]

From previous posts, I believe you said you were using a rent multiplier to decide when to buy, correct? If so, are you using today’s rents?

If I were trying to convince myself not to buy, I would try to determine what happened to rents during the last downturn in housing/recession. If you can’t get your hands on historical rent data, then you could attempt to make your own SWAG guess about rents using some fraction of the current number of expected abandoned houses.

For example, what would happen to rents if 70% of houses bought in Temecula since 2005 went into foreclosure and 25% of those foreclosures became rentals? Let’s say there is 100,000 square feet of rental property currently in Temecula renting for on average $100/square foot (no idea if these numbers are anywhere close to being correct). This gives us a total rental demand of $10 million (something tells me this is way low). In any event, using the theoretical numbers above, if the foreclosures add another 30,000 square feet, assuming that the demand for rentals doesn’t change (it may even go down in a recession), then you get an average rent price of $10 million/130,000 square feet ~ $77 per square foot.

As an alternative to trying to figure out the numbers for the above calculation, maybe you could just use a rental multiplier assuming 2003 rental prices. In any event, my point is that the rent multiplier you are using today may be based on an artificially low supply of rentals due to so many current and future unoccupied houses and a higher demand number for rentals than may exist in the future if we are going into a recession.

For the sake of full disclosure, I’ve never owned real estate in my life and there is a good chance I never will. However, it’s always a good idea to play around with whatever metrics you are using to at least try and get a feel for the worst- and best-case scenarios.

[TheBreeze]

From previous posts, I believe you said you were using a rent multiplier to decide when to buy, correct? If so, are you using today’s rents?

If I were trying to convince myself not to buy, I would try to determine what happened to rents during the last downturn in housing/recession. If you can’t get your hands on historical rent data, then you could attempt to make your own SWAG guess about rents using some fraction of the current number of expected abandoned houses.

For example, what would happen to rents if 70% of houses bought in Temecula since 2005 went into foreclosure and 25% of those foreclosures became rentals? Let’s say there is 100,000 square feet of rental property currently in Temecula renting for on average $100/square foot (no idea if these numbers are anywhere close to being correct). This gives us a total rental demand of $10 million (something tells me this is way low). In any event, using the theoretical numbers above, if the foreclosures add another 30,000 square feet, assuming that the demand for rentals doesn’t change (it may even go down in a recession), then you get an average rent price of $10 million/130,000 square feet ~ $77 per square foot.

As an alternative to trying to figure out the numbers for the above calculation, maybe you could just use a rental multiplier assuming 2003 rental prices. In any event, my point is that the rent multiplier you are using today may be based on an artificially low supply of rentals due to so many current and future unoccupied houses and a higher demand number for rentals than may exist in the future if we are going into a recession.

For the sake of full disclosure, I’ve never owned real estate in my life and there is a good chance I never will. However, it’s always a good idea to play around with whatever metrics you are using to at least try and get a feel for the worst- and best-case scenarios.

[TheBreeze]

From previous posts, I believe you said you were using a rent multiplier to decide when to buy, correct? If so, are you using today’s rents?

If I were trying to convince myself not to buy, I would try to determine what happened to rents during the last downturn in housing/recession. If you can’t get your hands on historical rent data, then you could attempt to make your own SWAG guess about rents using some fraction of the current number of expected abandoned houses.

For example, what would happen to rents if 70% of houses bought in Temecula since 2005 went into foreclosure and 25% of those foreclosures became rentals? Let’s say there is 100,000 square feet of rental property currently in Temecula renting for on average $100/square foot (no idea if these numbers are anywhere close to being correct). This gives us a total rental demand of $10 million (something tells me this is way low). In any event, using the theoretical numbers above, if the foreclosures add another 30,000 square feet, assuming that the demand for rentals doesn’t change (it may even go down in a recession), then you get an average rent price of $10 million/130,000 square feet ~ $77 per square foot.

As an alternative to trying to figure out the numbers for the above calculation, maybe you could just use a rental multiplier assuming 2003 rental prices. In any event, my point is that the rent multiplier you are using today may be based on an artificially low supply of rentals due to so many current and future unoccupied houses and a higher demand number for rentals than may exist in the future if we are going into a recession.

For the sake of full disclosure, I’ve never owned real estate in my life and there is a good chance I never will. However, it’s always a good idea to play around with whatever metrics you are using to at least try and get a feel for the worst- and best-case scenarios.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: Prices in this area will drop to $100-$120 per sq. ft. and not a penny higher……………(I’m betting on $100 per ft.) I’ve read enough of your posts to know that you are a savvy guy who understands what is going on and where the market is going to go………..so, if you choose to catch a falling knife, at least you won’t be surprised if the prices fall further after you buy.
Good luck to you whatever you choose to do.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: Prices in this area will drop to $100-$120 per sq. ft. and not a penny higher……………(I’m betting on $100 per ft.) I’ve read enough of your posts to know that you are a savvy guy who understands what is going on and where the market is going to go………..so, if you choose to catch a falling knife, at least you won’t be surprised if the prices fall further after you buy.
Good luck to you whatever you choose to do.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: Prices in this area will drop to $100-$120 per sq. ft. and not a penny higher……………(I’m betting on $100 per ft.) I’ve read enough of your posts to know that you are a savvy guy who understands what is going on and where the market is going to go………..so, if you choose to catch a falling knife, at least you won’t be surprised if the prices fall further after you buy.
Good luck to you whatever you choose to do.

[temeculaguy]

Flu, squatting is out but a nice idea, I’m a running water kind of guy.

Snail, I kinda like the castle thingy, I plan on getting a paper crown from burger king and putting it on to answer the door.

Bear, I’m with you but affordability isn’t the issue, 400k isn’t a stretch, but 300k would allow me even more discretionary income to invest (or spend on drinking, gambling and women of ill repute, o.k maybe not ill repute but below standard repute for sure). I actually laugh at my own frugality because I already did what you suggested, lived like a pauper on a kings salary and eventually gave in and rented something reasonable, my pauper days are over but it is still good advice. Realistically I can afford suitable housing, I’m just a cheap bastard who’s little bubble theory is getting to the point of insanity. I’m well into the six figures, no debt, loads of cash in money market accounts and stocks and I’m hemming and hawing over another 50k drop in prices, I feel almost petty. I agree that the the uber bears hoping for $75 houses are dreaming but is 300k out of line for the properties I listed? It’s no longer about money, my strategy has paid off thus far and have saved 200k, now it’s about winning, no matter where I buy I wan’t to have paid the least, dammit. It’s all about respect at the block party. Respected by men, desired by women, you get the picture, it’s down to ego now.

[temeculaguy]

Flu, squatting is out but a nice idea, I’m a running water kind of guy.

Snail, I kinda like the castle thingy, I plan on getting a paper crown from burger king and putting it on to answer the door.

Bear, I’m with you but affordability isn’t the issue, 400k isn’t a stretch, but 300k would allow me even more discretionary income to invest (or spend on drinking, gambling and women of ill repute, o.k maybe not ill repute but below standard repute for sure). I actually laugh at my own frugality because I already did what you suggested, lived like a pauper on a kings salary and eventually gave in and rented something reasonable, my pauper days are over but it is still good advice. Realistically I can afford suitable housing, I’m just a cheap bastard who’s little bubble theory is getting to the point of insanity. I’m well into the six figures, no debt, loads of cash in money market accounts and stocks and I’m hemming and hawing over another 50k drop in prices, I feel almost petty. I agree that the the uber bears hoping for $75 houses are dreaming but is 300k out of line for the properties I listed? It’s no longer about money, my strategy has paid off thus far and have saved 200k, now it’s about winning, no matter where I buy I wan’t to have paid the least, dammit. It’s all about respect at the block party. Respected by men, desired by women, you get the picture, it’s down to ego now.

[temeculaguy]

Flu, squatting is out but a nice idea, I’m a running water kind of guy.

Snail, I kinda like the castle thingy, I plan on getting a paper crown from burger king and putting it on to answer the door.

Bear, I’m with you but affordability isn’t the issue, 400k isn’t a stretch, but 300k would allow me even more discretionary income to invest (or spend on drinking, gambling and women of ill repute, o.k maybe not ill repute but below standard repute for sure). I actually laugh at my own frugality because I already did what you suggested, lived like a pauper on a kings salary and eventually gave in and rented something reasonable, my pauper days are over but it is still good advice. Realistically I can afford suitable housing, I’m just a cheap bastard who’s little bubble theory is getting to the point of insanity. I’m well into the six figures, no debt, loads of cash in money market accounts and stocks and I’m hemming and hawing over another 50k drop in prices, I feel almost petty. I agree that the the uber bears hoping for $75 houses are dreaming but is 300k out of line for the properties I listed? It’s no longer about money, my strategy has paid off thus far and have saved 200k, now it’s about winning, no matter where I buy I wan’t to have paid the least, dammit. It’s all about respect at the block party. Respected by men, desired by women, you get the picture, it’s down to ego now.

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

If I can do it you can do it. I’m waiting and it is torture but something tells me to wait. Find a nice rental that has something “fun” about it.

[Bugs]

TG,

Someone posted up about newish homes over in San Jacinto being listed at $90/SqFt. You’ve been watching the trends unfold in your area, so you’ve already seen a lot of price movement. You know that at most we’re only in the 4th inning of this thing and you know that what’s going on in Hemet/San Jacinto and French Valley is coming your way.

This has nothing to do with an anti-Temecula bias, either. Under different circumstances I might choose to move there myself.

I agree with renting well (loved the storage/mailbox ideas). Even if you can afford it I’m sure you have better things to do with the $100,000 or $200,000 that you stand to lose if you buy in the next 6 months.

Suck it up.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: WAIT! I agree with Bugs wholeheartedly. I would also add that there is a probable flood of REO properties about to hit the Temecula market fairly shortly.

Just for grins, I have been watching the pricing in Temecula and Murrieta, as well as keeping my ear to the ground as far as anecdotal information on housing goes.

Pricing has held in the tonier areas, such as Redhawk, but it is definitely starting to shift, and I think when it does go (such as when the banks really starting pushing REO inventory to clear the books), you will see pricing in the $100 to $120sf range.

There have been some fairly significant price drops here in Fallbrook, and in areas once thought immune.

[sdrealtor]

If you going to do it make sure you find the best property that has everything you want and more. Be very picky which will stretch your time frame out. If you find the best lot in the area for your needs with great upgrades at a decent price you will be happy there regardless. Even if prices drop a little more you will still have the best property on the block. Men will envy you and women will desire you.

[novice1027]

Hey TG,
I want to know if you finally broke down and bought that flat screen yet?
If you hem & haw as long with the house as you have the the TV, you may actually hit the bottom, lol!!!

[novice1027]

Hey TG,
I want to know if you finally broke down and bought that flat screen yet?
If you hem & haw as long with the house as you have the the TV, you may actually hit the bottom, lol!!!

[novice1027]

Hey TG,
I want to know if you finally broke down and bought that flat screen yet?
If you hem & haw as long with the house as you have the the TV, you may actually hit the bottom, lol!!!

[novice1027]

Hey TG,
I want to know if you finally broke down and bought that flat screen yet?
If you hem & haw as long with the house as you have the the TV, you may actually hit the bottom, lol!!!

[sdrealtor]

If you going to do it make sure you find the best property that has everything you want and more. Be very picky which will stretch your time frame out. If you find the best lot in the area for your needs with great upgrades at a decent price you will be happy there regardless. Even if prices drop a little more you will still have the best property on the block. Men will envy you and women will desire you.

[sdrealtor]

If you going to do it make sure you find the best property that has everything you want and more. Be very picky which will stretch your time frame out. If you find the best lot in the area for your needs with great upgrades at a decent price you will be happy there regardless. Even if prices drop a little more you will still have the best property on the block. Men will envy you and women will desire you.

[sdrealtor]

If you going to do it make sure you find the best property that has everything you want and more. Be very picky which will stretch your time frame out. If you find the best lot in the area for your needs with great upgrades at a decent price you will be happy there regardless. Even if prices drop a little more you will still have the best property on the block. Men will envy you and women will desire you.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: WAIT! I agree with Bugs wholeheartedly. I would also add that there is a probable flood of REO properties about to hit the Temecula market fairly shortly.

Just for grins, I have been watching the pricing in Temecula and Murrieta, as well as keeping my ear to the ground as far as anecdotal information on housing goes.

Pricing has held in the tonier areas, such as Redhawk, but it is definitely starting to shift, and I think when it does go (such as when the banks really starting pushing REO inventory to clear the books), you will see pricing in the $100 to $120sf range.

There have been some fairly significant price drops here in Fallbrook, and in areas once thought immune.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: WAIT! I agree with Bugs wholeheartedly. I would also add that there is a probable flood of REO properties about to hit the Temecula market fairly shortly.

Just for grins, I have been watching the pricing in Temecula and Murrieta, as well as keeping my ear to the ground as far as anecdotal information on housing goes.

Pricing has held in the tonier areas, such as Redhawk, but it is definitely starting to shift, and I think when it does go (such as when the banks really starting pushing REO inventory to clear the books), you will see pricing in the $100 to $120sf range.

There have been some fairly significant price drops here in Fallbrook, and in areas once thought immune.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: WAIT! I agree with Bugs wholeheartedly. I would also add that there is a probable flood of REO properties about to hit the Temecula market fairly shortly.

Just for grins, I have been watching the pricing in Temecula and Murrieta, as well as keeping my ear to the ground as far as anecdotal information on housing goes.

Pricing has held in the tonier areas, such as Redhawk, but it is definitely starting to shift, and I think when it does go (such as when the banks really starting pushing REO inventory to clear the books), you will see pricing in the $100 to $120sf range.

There have been some fairly significant price drops here in Fallbrook, and in areas once thought immune.

[Bugs]

TG,

Someone posted up about newish homes over in San Jacinto being listed at $90/SqFt. You’ve been watching the trends unfold in your area, so you’ve already seen a lot of price movement. You know that at most we’re only in the 4th inning of this thing and you know that what’s going on in Hemet/San Jacinto and French Valley is coming your way.

This has nothing to do with an anti-Temecula bias, either. Under different circumstances I might choose to move there myself.

I agree with renting well (loved the storage/mailbox ideas). Even if you can afford it I’m sure you have better things to do with the $100,000 or $200,000 that you stand to lose if you buy in the next 6 months.

Suck it up.

[Bugs]

TG,

Someone posted up about newish homes over in San Jacinto being listed at $90/SqFt. You’ve been watching the trends unfold in your area, so you’ve already seen a lot of price movement. You know that at most we’re only in the 4th inning of this thing and you know that what’s going on in Hemet/San Jacinto and French Valley is coming your way.

This has nothing to do with an anti-Temecula bias, either. Under different circumstances I might choose to move there myself.

I agree with renting well (loved the storage/mailbox ideas). Even if you can afford it I’m sure you have better things to do with the $100,000 or $200,000 that you stand to lose if you buy in the next 6 months.

Suck it up.

[Bugs]

TG,

Someone posted up about newish homes over in San Jacinto being listed at $90/SqFt. You’ve been watching the trends unfold in your area, so you’ve already seen a lot of price movement. You know that at most we’re only in the 4th inning of this thing and you know that what’s going on in Hemet/San Jacinto and French Valley is coming your way.

This has nothing to do with an anti-Temecula bias, either. Under different circumstances I might choose to move there myself.

I agree with renting well (loved the storage/mailbox ideas). Even if you can afford it I’m sure you have better things to do with the $100,000 or $200,000 that you stand to lose if you buy in the next 6 months.

Suck it up.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

If I can do it you can do it. I’m waiting and it is torture but something tells me to wait. Find a nice rental that has something “fun” about it.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

If I can do it you can do it. I’m waiting and it is torture but something tells me to wait. Find a nice rental that has something “fun” about it.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

If I can do it you can do it. I’m waiting and it is torture but something tells me to wait. Find a nice rental that has something “fun” about it.

[surveyor]

TG:

If it makes you feel better, I know of at least 1500 housing units slated to come online in the County of Riverside within the next three years. Quite a few are in Temecula, Hemet and the Winchester areas.

These projects have already been dedicated and entitled, so they have no choice but to build them.

[temeculaguy]

Great comments, Yes I broke down and got a low end flat panel T.V. and there was a moment I was looking at a nice slimfit samsung that was dirt cheap but thought to myself that I am a hobo and I may move more than once in the next year, so no more tubes. In fact I started getting rid of the bedroom t.v’s and going with light, sub $400 flats Bear, excellent advice but no matter what happens I don’t want a ranch in Santiago, I hate yardwork, I like people and prefer tract home living and walking to cocktail parties on the block. Plus when you are the only Bachelor in a family neighborhood, all the wives try to set you up with their freinds, something you don’t get on multi-acre estates.

OC, that is an excellent plan and I bet it would work, at 350k it would be at about $110 per square, if I do go that route, I’m going with your plan. SD, yes, I plan to try and get close to what I wan’t as far as the house, lot and cabinets go, flooring and landscaping are things I know I will have to change and are easy fixes.

Bugs and Alan, all great points, I am going to watch December very closely to see what it does to the prices and psyche of the market. I had figured that as spring approached and sales still wen’t down, panic would set in locally, 300k was my lofty goal for a ball park 3,000 sq ft in one of the premeire neighborhoods. They were all above 6, then 5 and now 4, what the hell, I can still count backwards despite the brutal hangover I’m nursing, 3 is next. In fact I can find it now in the right area but not the specific tracts I want and with more “dated” interiors.

Here is case in point

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1122936

I’d love to thank everyone but to be honest I am probably more confused now. If I can find a month to month rental in Dec or Jan, I’ll probably do it, if at the time the liklihood of sub 350k for the right property comes along, I’ll probably start throwing those 300k offers out, the timing is going to be tight but I love excitement.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: Year End is going to be brutal for a lot of banks, and the pressure to start dumping REO inventory is going to become more pronounced.

Additionally, FASB 157 kicks in on the 15th of this month. This is the financial guideline requiring more transparency and new accounting rules for “off book” and off Balance Sheet transactions. This rule is going to put a huge spotlight on the billions of dollars worth of bad loans and over-leveraged CDO, CDS and MBS transactions that have occurred during the boom. This will trigger more write-downs, and thus more losses, and thus an even greater push to dump non- and sub-performing assets (including REOs in the case of banks).

According to a lot of folks in the banking and financing industries, banks are currently only listing about 25%+/- of their REO portfolio for fear of triggering a pricing crash. This is going to change very soon.

[patientlywaiting]

What is a bachelor doing in Temecula? You should be Downtown San Diego or West LA!

Are there really women of ill-repute in Temecula?

[temeculaguy]

Alan, I am a little unfamiliar with that bill and always skeptical of any bill actually having the intended result but it is interesting. How good is the info that banks are holding back inventory? I see a lot of brown lawns but no signs, I just figured it was a long legal process to get a repo to market. I can’t see the logic in hundreds of financial institutions conspiring together, they are competitors, why wouldn’t they just try to save themselves.

Patient, I am here for many reasons but primarily because I am raising a couple of teenagers who have always lived here and have family here, plus I wan’t a three care garage, Downtown isn’t an option. And of course divorcees in their 40’s is my chosen demographic so I’m right where I need to be at this stage in my life. When I hit my sixties I’ll retire and and relocate to the palm springs area, home of the hot grandmas.

[CBad]

TG you are one funny guy! I can’t believe you are still single. 🙂

I agree with ocrenter’s advice.

[mgubnyc1]

TG, have you thought about what the Temecula – Murrieta area will be like in 2 years from now? Just think at the change’s 3 years made from 2003 to 2006, now think about 2007 to 2010. Are you sure you will want to live in this are in 2 years from now?

[bsrsharma]

Drub thy neighbor

DAN BERNSTEIN

I was having coffee with a friend who just bought a new home in Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates.

“You must be on cloud nine,” I said.

“Yes and no,” he replied. “I got a great deal, but my neighbor no longer speaks to me.”

“Some people just aren’t very sociable.”

“No, that’s not it. He was very nice until we started doing what Californians do.”

“What’s that?”

“Talking house.”

“With complete strangers.”

“We’d known each other for almost 10 minutes.”

“What went wrong?”

“Nothing at first. He asks how many square feet I have. I ask which plan he has — A, B or C. I don’t know if you’ve actually seen Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates, but every house kinda looks the same.”

“I’ve seen it.”

“He asks if I got the carpet upgrade. I tell him of course. He asks if I have granite. Miles of it, I say.”

“He seems kind of nosy.”

“We’re just talking house. He asks about free window coverings. Got ’em, I say. They threw in a pool, too. ‘Good for you,’ he says. ‘Sure wish it was like that when I moved in 18 months ago.’ ”

“No hard feelings?”

“Not a whiff. He tells me he put down $50,000. So I tell him I put down $50,000, too.”

“You guys are getting along famously.”

“Then he puffs out his chest and says, ‘Just so you know, I didn’t get one of those funny-money loans. I’m good for my mortgage.’ And I say, ‘Right back atcha. You and me’ll be Rancho Del Vista lifers.”

“You’re already planning your retirement together.”

“Finally, he asks, ‘So what did you end up paying for the place?’ ”

“It always gets down to that.”

“I tell him $425,000. I’m gonna lie to him?”

“What did he say?”

“Nothing at first. He just sort of changes colors. Then he starts to sweat pretty heavily and kind of crumples to his lawn. He keeps his lawn up real good.”

“What did he say?”

“His exact words were, ‘I paid six hundred.’ His house has lost almost a third of its value in 18 months. It hit him pretty hard.”

“He’s got to realize that when the going gets tough, builders want to get going.”

“That’s how I always looked at it. You read these stories about builders knocking off 100 grand here or 150 there and you say, ‘I want a piece of that action, baby.’ ”

“Who wouldn’t?”

“Then you meet a poor sap like my neighbor, who’s suddenly not puffing out his chest anymore. He’s telling me he’ll never get his $50,000 out of his house.”

“Not a chance.”

“That he planned to borrow against his house to send his daughter to college.”

“I don’t think so.”

“He’s telling me about some Arizona job offer he can’t afford to even consider. Even if he sold his house — ”

“He wouldn’t have enough money to buy another one.”

“He says the only way he could take the job is to abandon the house. Let the bank have it.”

“I hope you tried to knock some sense into him.”

“I told him to think about how something like that would affect my property value.”

“And?”

“That’s when he stopped speaking to me.”

“Like I said, some people just aren’t very sociable.”

Reach Dan Bernstein at 951-368-9439 or [email protected]

[Coronita]

bsrsharma,

Regarding Drub thy neighbor…

 

ROTFLAO. That was pretty funny. 

[Coronita]

bsrsharma,

Regarding Drub thy neighbor…

 

ROTFLAO. That was pretty funny. 

[Coronita]

bsrsharma,

Regarding Drub thy neighbor…

 

ROTFLAO. That was pretty funny. 

[Coronita]

bsrsharma,

Regarding Drub thy neighbor…

 

ROTFLAO. That was pretty funny. 

[snail]

bsshrama
Where is “Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates”? is this fictious name to protect the innocent? Loved this article please keep it coming….

[garysears]

TG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:

http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months

Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021

745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633

El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)

05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500

If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.

I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.

I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!

[garysears]

TG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:

http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months

Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021

745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633

El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)

05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500

If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.

I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.

I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!

[garysears]

TG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:

http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months

Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021

745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633

El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)

05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500

If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.

I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.

I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!

[garysears]

TG, I don’t know anything about Temecula. I have posted a few threads here about El Cajon condo prices. In one of those threads I pointed out how condos were selling for early 80’s prices in the late 90’s. Referring to one particular complex you advised me that below 150k would start to look attractive to investors and they will never go below 100k (120-150x rent). Here is the link:

http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months

Today there is an REO for 140k in that complex:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071066633-745_E_Bradley_Ave_39_El_Cajon_CA_92021

745 E BRADLEY AVE #39, El Cajon, CA 92021**
MLS #: 071066633

El Cajon is not Temecula but I have been astonished at the speed of the price declines here. A year ago I would not have imagined 140k was possible. The all time peak of 274k just happens to be the REO in question. So there is a 50% reduction 2.5 years after the peak sale closed. (Legal number of unit is #139. Number on building is #39.)

05/24/2005 $274,000
09/20/2001 $82,600
10/18/1983 $59,500

If anyone wants to win the 50% off last sales price contest I’m sure you can get this one for 137k.

I’m now starting to look at SFR’s in the area. The price I previously thought I might pay for a nice condo will likely buy an small SFR with garage in a few years. If I buy a 2bd condo I’m thinking 2/3 to 70% off peak prices.

I’m just saying if it can happen in El Cajon it might happen there. Best wishes. Knives are sharp!

[bsrsharma]

snail – I think it is a made up name. Since PE is a Temecula newspaper, the RDV part probably refers to an area there. There is an RDV in Chula Vista area also, I think.

[Sandi Egan]

TG,

Consider this:

Being situated where it is, Temecula is not only one of the first places to be hit by the decline, it also will be among the last to pick up next time around. If you buy now, you are sure to be locked up in your property for a very long time. On the other hand, if you resist the urge now, in a year or two you will find yourself in a MUCH better situation. Sure, 400K for 3000 sqft sounds tempting, and you can negotiate it even lower by Feb. In a year you will still be able to buy a cheap house, but you will also have a great choice of locations, features, views… Sellers will entertain your offers like you can’t imagine.

Wait just a little longer, resist the temptation, and you will be rewarded: your house will not be just a good deal. It will be the home of your dreams.

[SD Realtor]

TG if you buy now then we will not be able to enjoy any more of the priceless gems you have bestowed upon us these many years…

Anyways my advice would be to wait wait wait….especially for the Temecula area.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

TG if you buy now then we will not be able to enjoy any more of the priceless gems you have bestowed upon us these many years…

Anyways my advice would be to wait wait wait….especially for the Temecula area.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

TG if you buy now then we will not be able to enjoy any more of the priceless gems you have bestowed upon us these many years…

Anyways my advice would be to wait wait wait….especially for the Temecula area.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

TG if you buy now then we will not be able to enjoy any more of the priceless gems you have bestowed upon us these many years…

Anyways my advice would be to wait wait wait….especially for the Temecula area.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

Two reasons not to buy.

1. ARMs are nowhere near done resetting.
2. Mortgage rates are still at historic lows.

1. Housing market will go through two waves of foreclosures. First wave – subprime buyers and buyers with resetting ARM’s. REOs from the first wave drop market prices and prepare the market for the second wave – “investors” (speculators) and quite generally anyone who bought a house with zero down since 2004.
We’re not entirely through the first wave yet. When you start hearing about people returning keys to the bank simply because they are $100,000 upside down on their mortgage, you will know that it’s time to start looking for a house.

2. If you’re planning to retire and die in that house, (or at least to live there 10+ years) mortgage rates don’t matter. If you foresee a possibility that you will have to sell and move before 2012, it’s best for you to wait.

P.S. Just to show how much further Temecula can fall if conditions are right. Here’s a new 3br 2100 sq ft house, 25 miles from the downtown of 4st largest city in the United States, 30 miles from the nearest ocean beach. Look at the price.

http://www.lennar.com/findhome/plan.aspx?DIVID=HLSLEN&COMID=4980&PLANID=4150

[Eugene]

Two reasons not to buy.

1. ARMs are nowhere near done resetting.
2. Mortgage rates are still at historic lows.

1. Housing market will go through two waves of foreclosures. First wave – subprime buyers and buyers with resetting ARM’s. REOs from the first wave drop market prices and prepare the market for the second wave – “investors” (speculators) and quite generally anyone who bought a house with zero down since 2004.
We’re not entirely through the first wave yet. When you start hearing about people returning keys to the bank simply because they are $100,000 upside down on their mortgage, you will know that it’s time to start looking for a house.

2. If you’re planning to retire and die in that house, (or at least to live there 10+ years) mortgage rates don’t matter. If you foresee a possibility that you will have to sell and move before 2012, it’s best for you to wait.

P.S. Just to show how much further Temecula can fall if conditions are right. Here’s a new 3br 2100 sq ft house, 25 miles from the downtown of 4st largest city in the United States, 30 miles from the nearest ocean beach. Look at the price.

http://www.lennar.com/findhome/plan.aspx?DIVID=HLSLEN&COMID=4980&PLANID=4150

[Eugene]

Two reasons not to buy.

1. ARMs are nowhere near done resetting.
2. Mortgage rates are still at historic lows.

1. Housing market will go through two waves of foreclosures. First wave – subprime buyers and buyers with resetting ARM’s. REOs from the first wave drop market prices and prepare the market for the second wave – “investors” (speculators) and quite generally anyone who bought a house with zero down since 2004.
We’re not entirely through the first wave yet. When you start hearing about people returning keys to the bank simply because they are $100,000 upside down on their mortgage, you will know that it’s time to start looking for a house.

2. If you’re planning to retire and die in that house, (or at least to live there 10+ years) mortgage rates don’t matter. If you foresee a possibility that you will have to sell and move before 2012, it’s best for you to wait.

P.S. Just to show how much further Temecula can fall if conditions are right. Here’s a new 3br 2100 sq ft house, 25 miles from the downtown of 4st largest city in the United States, 30 miles from the nearest ocean beach. Look at the price.

http://www.lennar.com/findhome/plan.aspx?DIVID=HLSLEN&COMID=4980&PLANID=4150

[Eugene]

Two reasons not to buy.

1. ARMs are nowhere near done resetting.
2. Mortgage rates are still at historic lows.

1. Housing market will go through two waves of foreclosures. First wave – subprime buyers and buyers with resetting ARM’s. REOs from the first wave drop market prices and prepare the market for the second wave – “investors” (speculators) and quite generally anyone who bought a house with zero down since 2004.
We’re not entirely through the first wave yet. When you start hearing about people returning keys to the bank simply because they are $100,000 upside down on their mortgage, you will know that it’s time to start looking for a house.

2. If you’re planning to retire and die in that house, (or at least to live there 10+ years) mortgage rates don’t matter. If you foresee a possibility that you will have to sell and move before 2012, it’s best for you to wait.

P.S. Just to show how much further Temecula can fall if conditions are right. Here’s a new 3br 2100 sq ft house, 25 miles from the downtown of 4st largest city in the United States, 30 miles from the nearest ocean beach. Look at the price.

http://www.lennar.com/findhome/plan.aspx?DIVID=HLSLEN&COMID=4980&PLANID=4150

[Sandi Egan]

TG,

Consider this:

Being situated where it is, Temecula is not only one of the first places to be hit by the decline, it also will be among the last to pick up next time around. If you buy now, you are sure to be locked up in your property for a very long time. On the other hand, if you resist the urge now, in a year or two you will find yourself in a MUCH better situation. Sure, 400K for 3000 sqft sounds tempting, and you can negotiate it even lower by Feb. In a year you will still be able to buy a cheap house, but you will also have a great choice of locations, features, views… Sellers will entertain your offers like you can’t imagine.

Wait just a little longer, resist the temptation, and you will be rewarded: your house will not be just a good deal. It will be the home of your dreams.

[Sandi Egan]

TG,

Consider this:

Being situated where it is, Temecula is not only one of the first places to be hit by the decline, it also will be among the last to pick up next time around. If you buy now, you are sure to be locked up in your property for a very long time. On the other hand, if you resist the urge now, in a year or two you will find yourself in a MUCH better situation. Sure, 400K for 3000 sqft sounds tempting, and you can negotiate it even lower by Feb. In a year you will still be able to buy a cheap house, but you will also have a great choice of locations, features, views… Sellers will entertain your offers like you can’t imagine.

Wait just a little longer, resist the temptation, and you will be rewarded: your house will not be just a good deal. It will be the home of your dreams.

[Sandi Egan]

TG,

Consider this:

Being situated where it is, Temecula is not only one of the first places to be hit by the decline, it also will be among the last to pick up next time around. If you buy now, you are sure to be locked up in your property for a very long time. On the other hand, if you resist the urge now, in a year or two you will find yourself in a MUCH better situation. Sure, 400K for 3000 sqft sounds tempting, and you can negotiate it even lower by Feb. In a year you will still be able to buy a cheap house, but you will also have a great choice of locations, features, views… Sellers will entertain your offers like you can’t imagine.

Wait just a little longer, resist the temptation, and you will be rewarded: your house will not be just a good deal. It will be the home of your dreams.

[bsrsharma]

snail – I think it is a made up name. Since PE is a Temecula newspaper, the RDV part probably refers to an area there. There is an RDV in Chula Vista area also, I think.

[bsrsharma]

snail – I think it is a made up name. Since PE is a Temecula newspaper, the RDV part probably refers to an area there. There is an RDV in Chula Vista area also, I think.

[bsrsharma]

snail – I think it is a made up name. Since PE is a Temecula newspaper, the RDV part probably refers to an area there. There is an RDV in Chula Vista area also, I think.

[snail]

bsshrama
Where is “Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates”? is this fictious name to protect the innocent? Loved this article please keep it coming….

[snail]

bsshrama
Where is “Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates”? is this fictious name to protect the innocent? Loved this article please keep it coming….

[snail]

bsshrama
Where is “Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates”? is this fictious name to protect the innocent? Loved this article please keep it coming….

[bsrsharma]

Drub thy neighbor

DAN BERNSTEIN

I was having coffee with a friend who just bought a new home in Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates.

“You must be on cloud nine,” I said.

“Yes and no,” he replied. “I got a great deal, but my neighbor no longer speaks to me.”

“Some people just aren’t very sociable.”

“No, that’s not it. He was very nice until we started doing what Californians do.”

“What’s that?”

“Talking house.”

“With complete strangers.”

“We’d known each other for almost 10 minutes.”

“What went wrong?”

“Nothing at first. He asks how many square feet I have. I ask which plan he has — A, B or C. I don’t know if you’ve actually seen Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates, but every house kinda looks the same.”

“I’ve seen it.”

“He asks if I got the carpet upgrade. I tell him of course. He asks if I have granite. Miles of it, I say.”

“He seems kind of nosy.”

“We’re just talking house. He asks about free window coverings. Got ’em, I say. They threw in a pool, too. ‘Good for you,’ he says. ‘Sure wish it was like that when I moved in 18 months ago.’ ”

“No hard feelings?”

“Not a whiff. He tells me he put down $50,000. So I tell him I put down $50,000, too.”

“You guys are getting along famously.”

“Then he puffs out his chest and says, ‘Just so you know, I didn’t get one of those funny-money loans. I’m good for my mortgage.’ And I say, ‘Right back atcha. You and me’ll be Rancho Del Vista lifers.”

“You’re already planning your retirement together.”

“Finally, he asks, ‘So what did you end up paying for the place?’ ”

“It always gets down to that.”

“I tell him $425,000. I’m gonna lie to him?”

“What did he say?”

“Nothing at first. He just sort of changes colors. Then he starts to sweat pretty heavily and kind of crumples to his lawn. He keeps his lawn up real good.”

“What did he say?”

“His exact words were, ‘I paid six hundred.’ His house has lost almost a third of its value in 18 months. It hit him pretty hard.”

“He’s got to realize that when the going gets tough, builders want to get going.”

“That’s how I always looked at it. You read these stories about builders knocking off 100 grand here or 150 there and you say, ‘I want a piece of that action, baby.’ ”

“Who wouldn’t?”

“Then you meet a poor sap like my neighbor, who’s suddenly not puffing out his chest anymore. He’s telling me he’ll never get his $50,000 out of his house.”

“Not a chance.”

“That he planned to borrow against his house to send his daughter to college.”

“I don’t think so.”

“He’s telling me about some Arizona job offer he can’t afford to even consider. Even if he sold his house — ”

“He wouldn’t have enough money to buy another one.”

“He says the only way he could take the job is to abandon the house. Let the bank have it.”

“I hope you tried to knock some sense into him.”

“I told him to think about how something like that would affect my property value.”

“And?”

“That’s when he stopped speaking to me.”

“Like I said, some people just aren’t very sociable.”

Reach Dan Bernstein at 951-368-9439 or [email protected]

[bsrsharma]

Drub thy neighbor

DAN BERNSTEIN

I was having coffee with a friend who just bought a new home in Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates.

“You must be on cloud nine,” I said.

“Yes and no,” he replied. “I got a great deal, but my neighbor no longer speaks to me.”

“Some people just aren’t very sociable.”

“No, that’s not it. He was very nice until we started doing what Californians do.”

“What’s that?”

“Talking house.”

“With complete strangers.”

“We’d known each other for almost 10 minutes.”

“What went wrong?”

“Nothing at first. He asks how many square feet I have. I ask which plan he has — A, B or C. I don’t know if you’ve actually seen Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates, but every house kinda looks the same.”

“I’ve seen it.”

“He asks if I got the carpet upgrade. I tell him of course. He asks if I have granite. Miles of it, I say.”

“He seems kind of nosy.”

“We’re just talking house. He asks about free window coverings. Got ’em, I say. They threw in a pool, too. ‘Good for you,’ he says. ‘Sure wish it was like that when I moved in 18 months ago.’ ”

“No hard feelings?”

“Not a whiff. He tells me he put down $50,000. So I tell him I put down $50,000, too.”

“You guys are getting along famously.”

“Then he puffs out his chest and says, ‘Just so you know, I didn’t get one of those funny-money loans. I’m good for my mortgage.’ And I say, ‘Right back atcha. You and me’ll be Rancho Del Vista lifers.”

“You’re already planning your retirement together.”

“Finally, he asks, ‘So what did you end up paying for the place?’ ”

“It always gets down to that.”

“I tell him $425,000. I’m gonna lie to him?”

“What did he say?”

“Nothing at first. He just sort of changes colors. Then he starts to sweat pretty heavily and kind of crumples to his lawn. He keeps his lawn up real good.”

“What did he say?”

“His exact words were, ‘I paid six hundred.’ His house has lost almost a third of its value in 18 months. It hit him pretty hard.”

“He’s got to realize that when the going gets tough, builders want to get going.”

“That’s how I always looked at it. You read these stories about builders knocking off 100 grand here or 150 there and you say, ‘I want a piece of that action, baby.’ ”

“Who wouldn’t?”

“Then you meet a poor sap like my neighbor, who’s suddenly not puffing out his chest anymore. He’s telling me he’ll never get his $50,000 out of his house.”

“Not a chance.”

“That he planned to borrow against his house to send his daughter to college.”

“I don’t think so.”

“He’s telling me about some Arizona job offer he can’t afford to even consider. Even if he sold his house — ”

“He wouldn’t have enough money to buy another one.”

“He says the only way he could take the job is to abandon the house. Let the bank have it.”

“I hope you tried to knock some sense into him.”

“I told him to think about how something like that would affect my property value.”

“And?”

“That’s when he stopped speaking to me.”

“Like I said, some people just aren’t very sociable.”

Reach Dan Bernstein at 951-368-9439 or [email protected]

[bsrsharma]

Drub thy neighbor

DAN BERNSTEIN

I was having coffee with a friend who just bought a new home in Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates.

“You must be on cloud nine,” I said.

“Yes and no,” he replied. “I got a great deal, but my neighbor no longer speaks to me.”

“Some people just aren’t very sociable.”

“No, that’s not it. He was very nice until we started doing what Californians do.”

“What’s that?”

“Talking house.”

“With complete strangers.”

“We’d known each other for almost 10 minutes.”

“What went wrong?”

“Nothing at first. He asks how many square feet I have. I ask which plan he has — A, B or C. I don’t know if you’ve actually seen Rancho Del Vista Del Harmony Estates, but every house kinda looks the same.”

“I’ve seen it.”

“He asks if I got the carpet upgrade. I tell him of course. He asks if I have granite. Miles of it, I say.”

“He seems kind of nosy.”

“We’re just talking house. He asks about free window coverings. Got ’em, I say. They threw in a pool, too. ‘Good for you,’ he says. ‘Sure wish it was like that when I moved in 18 months ago.’ ”

“No hard feelings?”

“Not a whiff. He tells me he put down $50,000. So I tell him I put down $50,000, too.”

“You guys are getting along famously.”

“Then he puffs out his chest and says, ‘Just so you know, I didn’t get one of those funny-money loans. I’m good for my mortgage.’ And I say, ‘Right back atcha. You and me’ll be Rancho Del Vista lifers.”

“You’re already planning your retirement together.”

“Finally, he asks, ‘So what did you end up paying for the place?’ ”

“It always gets down to that.”

“I tell him $425,000. I’m gonna lie to him?”

“What did he say?”

“Nothing at first. He just sort of changes colors. Then he starts to sweat pretty heavily and kind of crumples to his lawn. He keeps his lawn up real good.”

“What did he say?”

“His exact words were, ‘I paid six hundred.’ His house has lost almost a third of its value in 18 months. It hit him pretty hard.”

“He’s got to realize that when the going gets tough, builders want to get going.”

“That’s how I always looked at it. You read these stories about builders knocking off 100 grand here or 150 there and you say, ‘I want a piece of that action, baby.’ ”

“Who wouldn’t?”

“Then you meet a poor sap like my neighbor, who’s suddenly not puffing out his chest anymore. He’s telling me he’ll never get his $50,000 out of his house.”

“Not a chance.”

“That he planned to borrow against his house to send his daughter to college.”

“I don’t think so.”

“He’s telling me about some Arizona job offer he can’t afford to even consider. Even if he sold his house — ”

“He wouldn’t have enough money to buy another one.”

“He says the only way he could take the job is to abandon the house. Let the bank have it.”

“I hope you tried to knock some sense into him.”

“I told him to think about how something like that would affect my property value.”

“And?”

“That’s when he stopped speaking to me.”

“Like I said, some people just aren’t very sociable.”

Reach Dan Bernstein at 951-368-9439 or [email protected]

[mgubnyc1]

TG, have you thought about what the Temecula – Murrieta area will be like in 2 years from now? Just think at the change’s 3 years made from 2003 to 2006, now think about 2007 to 2010. Are you sure you will want to live in this are in 2 years from now?

[mgubnyc1]

TG, have you thought about what the Temecula – Murrieta area will be like in 2 years from now? Just think at the change’s 3 years made from 2003 to 2006, now think about 2007 to 2010. Are you sure you will want to live in this are in 2 years from now?

[mgubnyc1]

TG, have you thought about what the Temecula – Murrieta area will be like in 2 years from now? Just think at the change’s 3 years made from 2003 to 2006, now think about 2007 to 2010. Are you sure you will want to live in this are in 2 years from now?

[CBad]

TG you are one funny guy! I can’t believe you are still single. 🙂

I agree with ocrenter’s advice.

[CBad]

TG you are one funny guy! I can’t believe you are still single. 🙂

I agree with ocrenter’s advice.

[CBad]

TG you are one funny guy! I can’t believe you are still single. 🙂

I agree with ocrenter’s advice.

[temeculaguy]

Alan, I am a little unfamiliar with that bill and always skeptical of any bill actually having the intended result but it is interesting. How good is the info that banks are holding back inventory? I see a lot of brown lawns but no signs, I just figured it was a long legal process to get a repo to market. I can’t see the logic in hundreds of financial institutions conspiring together, they are competitors, why wouldn’t they just try to save themselves.

Patient, I am here for many reasons but primarily because I am raising a couple of teenagers who have always lived here and have family here, plus I wan’t a three care garage, Downtown isn’t an option. And of course divorcees in their 40’s is my chosen demographic so I’m right where I need to be at this stage in my life. When I hit my sixties I’ll retire and and relocate to the palm springs area, home of the hot grandmas.

[temeculaguy]

Alan, I am a little unfamiliar with that bill and always skeptical of any bill actually having the intended result but it is interesting. How good is the info that banks are holding back inventory? I see a lot of brown lawns but no signs, I just figured it was a long legal process to get a repo to market. I can’t see the logic in hundreds of financial institutions conspiring together, they are competitors, why wouldn’t they just try to save themselves.

Patient, I am here for many reasons but primarily because I am raising a couple of teenagers who have always lived here and have family here, plus I wan’t a three care garage, Downtown isn’t an option. And of course divorcees in their 40’s is my chosen demographic so I’m right where I need to be at this stage in my life. When I hit my sixties I’ll retire and and relocate to the palm springs area, home of the hot grandmas.

[temeculaguy]

Alan, I am a little unfamiliar with that bill and always skeptical of any bill actually having the intended result but it is interesting. How good is the info that banks are holding back inventory? I see a lot of brown lawns but no signs, I just figured it was a long legal process to get a repo to market. I can’t see the logic in hundreds of financial institutions conspiring together, they are competitors, why wouldn’t they just try to save themselves.

Patient, I am here for many reasons but primarily because I am raising a couple of teenagers who have always lived here and have family here, plus I wan’t a three care garage, Downtown isn’t an option. And of course divorcees in their 40’s is my chosen demographic so I’m right where I need to be at this stage in my life. When I hit my sixties I’ll retire and and relocate to the palm springs area, home of the hot grandmas.

[patientlywaiting]

What is a bachelor doing in Temecula? You should be Downtown San Diego or West LA!

Are there really women of ill-repute in Temecula?

[patientlywaiting]

What is a bachelor doing in Temecula? You should be Downtown San Diego or West LA!

Are there really women of ill-repute in Temecula?

[patientlywaiting]

What is a bachelor doing in Temecula? You should be Downtown San Diego or West LA!

Are there really women of ill-repute in Temecula?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: Year End is going to be brutal for a lot of banks, and the pressure to start dumping REO inventory is going to become more pronounced.

Additionally, FASB 157 kicks in on the 15th of this month. This is the financial guideline requiring more transparency and new accounting rules for “off book” and off Balance Sheet transactions. This rule is going to put a huge spotlight on the billions of dollars worth of bad loans and over-leveraged CDO, CDS and MBS transactions that have occurred during the boom. This will trigger more write-downs, and thus more losses, and thus an even greater push to dump non- and sub-performing assets (including REOs in the case of banks).

According to a lot of folks in the banking and financing industries, banks are currently only listing about 25%+/- of their REO portfolio for fear of triggering a pricing crash. This is going to change very soon.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: Year End is going to be brutal for a lot of banks, and the pressure to start dumping REO inventory is going to become more pronounced.

Additionally, FASB 157 kicks in on the 15th of this month. This is the financial guideline requiring more transparency and new accounting rules for “off book” and off Balance Sheet transactions. This rule is going to put a huge spotlight on the billions of dollars worth of bad loans and over-leveraged CDO, CDS and MBS transactions that have occurred during the boom. This will trigger more write-downs, and thus more losses, and thus an even greater push to dump non- and sub-performing assets (including REOs in the case of banks).

According to a lot of folks in the banking and financing industries, banks are currently only listing about 25%+/- of their REO portfolio for fear of triggering a pricing crash. This is going to change very soon.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: Year End is going to be brutal for a lot of banks, and the pressure to start dumping REO inventory is going to become more pronounced.

Additionally, FASB 157 kicks in on the 15th of this month. This is the financial guideline requiring more transparency and new accounting rules for “off book” and off Balance Sheet transactions. This rule is going to put a huge spotlight on the billions of dollars worth of bad loans and over-leveraged CDO, CDS and MBS transactions that have occurred during the boom. This will trigger more write-downs, and thus more losses, and thus an even greater push to dump non- and sub-performing assets (including REOs in the case of banks).

According to a lot of folks in the banking and financing industries, banks are currently only listing about 25%+/- of their REO portfolio for fear of triggering a pricing crash. This is going to change very soon.

[temeculaguy]

Great comments, Yes I broke down and got a low end flat panel T.V. and there was a moment I was looking at a nice slimfit samsung that was dirt cheap but thought to myself that I am a hobo and I may move more than once in the next year, so no more tubes. In fact I started getting rid of the bedroom t.v’s and going with light, sub $400 flats Bear, excellent advice but no matter what happens I don’t want a ranch in Santiago, I hate yardwork, I like people and prefer tract home living and walking to cocktail parties on the block. Plus when you are the only Bachelor in a family neighborhood, all the wives try to set you up with their freinds, something you don’t get on multi-acre estates.

OC, that is an excellent plan and I bet it would work, at 350k it would be at about $110 per square, if I do go that route, I’m going with your plan. SD, yes, I plan to try and get close to what I wan’t as far as the house, lot and cabinets go, flooring and landscaping are things I know I will have to change and are easy fixes.

Bugs and Alan, all great points, I am going to watch December very closely to see what it does to the prices and psyche of the market. I had figured that as spring approached and sales still wen’t down, panic would set in locally, 300k was my lofty goal for a ball park 3,000 sq ft in one of the premeire neighborhoods. They were all above 6, then 5 and now 4, what the hell, I can still count backwards despite the brutal hangover I’m nursing, 3 is next. In fact I can find it now in the right area but not the specific tracts I want and with more “dated” interiors.

Here is case in point

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1122936

I’d love to thank everyone but to be honest I am probably more confused now. If I can find a month to month rental in Dec or Jan, I’ll probably do it, if at the time the liklihood of sub 350k for the right property comes along, I’ll probably start throwing those 300k offers out, the timing is going to be tight but I love excitement.

[temeculaguy]

Great comments, Yes I broke down and got a low end flat panel T.V. and there was a moment I was looking at a nice slimfit samsung that was dirt cheap but thought to myself that I am a hobo and I may move more than once in the next year, so no more tubes. In fact I started getting rid of the bedroom t.v’s and going with light, sub $400 flats Bear, excellent advice but no matter what happens I don’t want a ranch in Santiago, I hate yardwork, I like people and prefer tract home living and walking to cocktail parties on the block. Plus when you are the only Bachelor in a family neighborhood, all the wives try to set you up with their freinds, something you don’t get on multi-acre estates.

OC, that is an excellent plan and I bet it would work, at 350k it would be at about $110 per square, if I do go that route, I’m going with your plan. SD, yes, I plan to try and get close to what I wan’t as far as the house, lot and cabinets go, flooring and landscaping are things I know I will have to change and are easy fixes.

Bugs and Alan, all great points, I am going to watch December very closely to see what it does to the prices and psyche of the market. I had figured that as spring approached and sales still wen’t down, panic would set in locally, 300k was my lofty goal for a ball park 3,000 sq ft in one of the premeire neighborhoods. They were all above 6, then 5 and now 4, what the hell, I can still count backwards despite the brutal hangover I’m nursing, 3 is next. In fact I can find it now in the right area but not the specific tracts I want and with more “dated” interiors.

Here is case in point

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1122936

I’d love to thank everyone but to be honest I am probably more confused now. If I can find a month to month rental in Dec or Jan, I’ll probably do it, if at the time the liklihood of sub 350k for the right property comes along, I’ll probably start throwing those 300k offers out, the timing is going to be tight but I love excitement.

[temeculaguy]

Great comments, Yes I broke down and got a low end flat panel T.V. and there was a moment I was looking at a nice slimfit samsung that was dirt cheap but thought to myself that I am a hobo and I may move more than once in the next year, so no more tubes. In fact I started getting rid of the bedroom t.v’s and going with light, sub $400 flats Bear, excellent advice but no matter what happens I don’t want a ranch in Santiago, I hate yardwork, I like people and prefer tract home living and walking to cocktail parties on the block. Plus when you are the only Bachelor in a family neighborhood, all the wives try to set you up with their freinds, something you don’t get on multi-acre estates.

OC, that is an excellent plan and I bet it would work, at 350k it would be at about $110 per square, if I do go that route, I’m going with your plan. SD, yes, I plan to try and get close to what I wan’t as far as the house, lot and cabinets go, flooring and landscaping are things I know I will have to change and are easy fixes.

Bugs and Alan, all great points, I am going to watch December very closely to see what it does to the prices and psyche of the market. I had figured that as spring approached and sales still wen’t down, panic would set in locally, 300k was my lofty goal for a ball park 3,000 sq ft in one of the premeire neighborhoods. They were all above 6, then 5 and now 4, what the hell, I can still count backwards despite the brutal hangover I’m nursing, 3 is next. In fact I can find it now in the right area but not the specific tracts I want and with more “dated” interiors.

Here is case in point

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1122936

I’d love to thank everyone but to be honest I am probably more confused now. If I can find a month to month rental in Dec or Jan, I’ll probably do it, if at the time the liklihood of sub 350k for the right property comes along, I’ll probably start throwing those 300k offers out, the timing is going to be tight but I love excitement.

[surveyor]

TG:

If it makes you feel better, I know of at least 1500 housing units slated to come online in the County of Riverside within the next three years. Quite a few are in Temecula, Hemet and the Winchester areas.

These projects have already been dedicated and entitled, so they have no choice but to build them.

[surveyor]

TG:

If it makes you feel better, I know of at least 1500 housing units slated to come online in the County of Riverside within the next three years. Quite a few are in Temecula, Hemet and the Winchester areas.

These projects have already been dedicated and entitled, so they have no choice but to build them.

[surveyor]

TG:

If it makes you feel better, I know of at least 1500 housing units slated to come online in the County of Riverside within the next three years. Quite a few are in Temecula, Hemet and the Winchester areas.

These projects have already been dedicated and entitled, so they have no choice but to build them.

[dontfollowtheherd]

TG,

Sound like buyer’s remorse hits you extra hard so what’s the rush? There will be many nicer homes to choose from at 15-20% lower than where we are today. I wasn’t that impressed with the houses you’re looking at aside from one. Some of them probably sold for 150-175k 6-7 years ago, so why should you pay 3 times that in a falling market? The Tisbury was by far the nicest even with the Bali/Indian palace look from the front. What are you gonna do w/7000sf anyhow? That pool/spa combo would come in handy for pool parties with the divorcees I guess. 🙂 Between the Mello-Roos (if any) and taxes you’re looking at a sizeable chunk of your nest egg getting eaten up in a market that is going to take years to recover from. If all the advice you’ve gotten from everyone so far doesn’t slow you down a bit then make sure to buy a pair of Teflon gloves…lol

[dontfollowtheherd]

TG,

Sound like buyer’s remorse hits you extra hard so what’s the rush? There will be many nicer homes to choose from at 15-20% lower than where we are today. I wasn’t that impressed with the houses you’re looking at aside from one. Some of them probably sold for 150-175k 6-7 years ago, so why should you pay 3 times that in a falling market? The Tisbury was by far the nicest even with the Bali/Indian palace look from the front. What are you gonna do w/7000sf anyhow? That pool/spa combo would come in handy for pool parties with the divorcees I guess. 🙂 Between the Mello-Roos (if any) and taxes you’re looking at a sizeable chunk of your nest egg getting eaten up in a market that is going to take years to recover from. If all the advice you’ve gotten from everyone so far doesn’t slow you down a bit then make sure to buy a pair of Teflon gloves…lol

[dontfollowtheherd]

TG,

Sound like buyer’s remorse hits you extra hard so what’s the rush? There will be many nicer homes to choose from at 15-20% lower than where we are today. I wasn’t that impressed with the houses you’re looking at aside from one. Some of them probably sold for 150-175k 6-7 years ago, so why should you pay 3 times that in a falling market? The Tisbury was by far the nicest even with the Bali/Indian palace look from the front. What are you gonna do w/7000sf anyhow? That pool/spa combo would come in handy for pool parties with the divorcees I guess. 🙂 Between the Mello-Roos (if any) and taxes you’re looking at a sizeable chunk of your nest egg getting eaten up in a market that is going to take years to recover from. If all the advice you’ve gotten from everyone so far doesn’t slow you down a bit then make sure to buy a pair of Teflon gloves…lol

[dontfollowtheherd]

TG,

Sound like buyer’s remorse hits you extra hard so what’s the rush? There will be many nicer homes to choose from at 15-20% lower than where we are today. I wasn’t that impressed with the houses you’re looking at aside from one. Some of them probably sold for 150-175k 6-7 years ago, so why should you pay 3 times that in a falling market? The Tisbury was by far the nicest even with the Bali/Indian palace look from the front. What are you gonna do w/7000sf anyhow? That pool/spa combo would come in handy for pool parties with the divorcees I guess. 🙂 Between the Mello-Roos (if any) and taxes you’re looking at a sizeable chunk of your nest egg getting eaten up in a market that is going to take years to recover from. If all the advice you’ve gotten from everyone so far doesn’t slow you down a bit then make sure to buy a pair of Teflon gloves…lol

[LuckyInOC]

TG,

My wife and I bought our first home in OC at the end of ’97 after the last RE bubble. The biggest problem with ‘not’ being a knife-catcher and just in front of the up-turn was the selection of homes. We had very few nice homes in our price range. Basically, leftovers… We choose the best one we could. We upgraded to a larger home (wife’s choice, not mine) in ’06 (5.5% Jumbo 30yr fixed >20% down) and sold our first home this year with a nice profit.

If I was able to do over, I would think I would rather knife-catch a “little” with home I really love, instead of save a “little” and settle for what is left. I was not in a position to buy a home prior to ’97.

IMO the best would be at the beginning of the bottom-flat = Best Selection, Best Price… Of course the biggest problem is knowing when that is…

I been reading this site for about 6 months or so…
I’ve had the same feelings about this RE market being overheated since at least 2002, maybe even earlier. My last house saw highs in the $350k (’89) range before falling to th $150k (’95) range. After selling at $590k, my neighborhood is down to about $450 or less (24%). I would not bet against a 50% drop from the highs again.

Even for rational persons, once the numbers start to line up, it will become an emotional decision as always…

Hope this helps and good luck,

Lucky In OC

[mgubnyc1]

homes in Temecula and the surrounding area’s will continue to fall, no doupt about it, you don’t have to be Donald Trump to know this! The question is not how low anymore, its who’s going to be buying them? Are we going to hear lots more of these Murder/suicide’s in Temecula (5 people on Sunday on a quite Temecula cul-de-sac dead) you bet you are! As falling home prices spiral down, so will the class of buyers, the tax income is in a decline and the city will have to cut back soon or raise tax’s! The planned budgets are no longer valid, the tax’s are no longer increasing, they are now decreasing.
You guy’s have seen nothing yet, just give it another 2 years and you’ll see a whole new Temecula-Murrieta then you see today.

[mgubnyc1]

homes in Temecula and the surrounding area’s will continue to fall, no doupt about it, you don’t have to be Donald Trump to know this! The question is not how low anymore, its who’s going to be buying them? Are we going to hear lots more of these Murder/suicide’s in Temecula (5 people on Sunday on a quite Temecula cul-de-sac dead) you bet you are! As falling home prices spiral down, so will the class of buyers, the tax income is in a decline and the city will have to cut back soon or raise tax’s! The planned budgets are no longer valid, the tax’s are no longer increasing, they are now decreasing.
You guy’s have seen nothing yet, just give it another 2 years and you’ll see a whole new Temecula-Murrieta then you see today.

[mgubnyc1]

homes in Temecula and the surrounding area’s will continue to fall, no doupt about it, you don’t have to be Donald Trump to know this! The question is not how low anymore, its who’s going to be buying them? Are we going to hear lots more of these Murder/suicide’s in Temecula (5 people on Sunday on a quite Temecula cul-de-sac dead) you bet you are! As falling home prices spiral down, so will the class of buyers, the tax income is in a decline and the city will have to cut back soon or raise tax’s! The planned budgets are no longer valid, the tax’s are no longer increasing, they are now decreasing.
You guy’s have seen nothing yet, just give it another 2 years and you’ll see a whole new Temecula-Murrieta then you see today.

[mgubnyc1]

homes in Temecula and the surrounding area’s will continue to fall, no doupt about it, you don’t have to be Donald Trump to know this! The question is not how low anymore, its who’s going to be buying them? Are we going to hear lots more of these Murder/suicide’s in Temecula (5 people on Sunday on a quite Temecula cul-de-sac dead) you bet you are! As falling home prices spiral down, so will the class of buyers, the tax income is in a decline and the city will have to cut back soon or raise tax’s! The planned budgets are no longer valid, the tax’s are no longer increasing, they are now decreasing.
You guy’s have seen nothing yet, just give it another 2 years and you’ll see a whole new Temecula-Murrieta then you see today.

[LuckyInOC]

TG,

My wife and I bought our first home in OC at the end of ’97 after the last RE bubble. The biggest problem with ‘not’ being a knife-catcher and just in front of the up-turn was the selection of homes. We had very few nice homes in our price range. Basically, leftovers… We choose the best one we could. We upgraded to a larger home (wife’s choice, not mine) in ’06 (5.5% Jumbo 30yr fixed >20% down) and sold our first home this year with a nice profit.

If I was able to do over, I would think I would rather knife-catch a “little” with home I really love, instead of save a “little” and settle for what is left. I was not in a position to buy a home prior to ’97.

IMO the best would be at the beginning of the bottom-flat = Best Selection, Best Price… Of course the biggest problem is knowing when that is…

I been reading this site for about 6 months or so…
I’ve had the same feelings about this RE market being overheated since at least 2002, maybe even earlier. My last house saw highs in the $350k (’89) range before falling to th $150k (’95) range. After selling at $590k, my neighborhood is down to about $450 or less (24%). I would not bet against a 50% drop from the highs again.

Even for rational persons, once the numbers start to line up, it will become an emotional decision as always…

Hope this helps and good luck,

Lucky In OC

[LuckyInOC]

TG,

My wife and I bought our first home in OC at the end of ’97 after the last RE bubble. The biggest problem with ‘not’ being a knife-catcher and just in front of the up-turn was the selection of homes. We had very few nice homes in our price range. Basically, leftovers… We choose the best one we could. We upgraded to a larger home (wife’s choice, not mine) in ’06 (5.5% Jumbo 30yr fixed >20% down) and sold our first home this year with a nice profit.

If I was able to do over, I would think I would rather knife-catch a “little” with home I really love, instead of save a “little” and settle for what is left. I was not in a position to buy a home prior to ’97.

IMO the best would be at the beginning of the bottom-flat = Best Selection, Best Price… Of course the biggest problem is knowing when that is…

I been reading this site for about 6 months or so…
I’ve had the same feelings about this RE market being overheated since at least 2002, maybe even earlier. My last house saw highs in the $350k (’89) range before falling to th $150k (’95) range. After selling at $590k, my neighborhood is down to about $450 or less (24%). I would not bet against a 50% drop from the highs again.

Even for rational persons, once the numbers start to line up, it will become an emotional decision as always…

Hope this helps and good luck,

Lucky In OC

[LuckyInOC]

TG,

My wife and I bought our first home in OC at the end of ’97 after the last RE bubble. The biggest problem with ‘not’ being a knife-catcher and just in front of the up-turn was the selection of homes. We had very few nice homes in our price range. Basically, leftovers… We choose the best one we could. We upgraded to a larger home (wife’s choice, not mine) in ’06 (5.5% Jumbo 30yr fixed >20% down) and sold our first home this year with a nice profit.

If I was able to do over, I would think I would rather knife-catch a “little” with home I really love, instead of save a “little” and settle for what is left. I was not in a position to buy a home prior to ’97.

IMO the best would be at the beginning of the bottom-flat = Best Selection, Best Price… Of course the biggest problem is knowing when that is…

I been reading this site for about 6 months or so…
I’ve had the same feelings about this RE market being overheated since at least 2002, maybe even earlier. My last house saw highs in the $350k (’89) range before falling to th $150k (’95) range. After selling at $590k, my neighborhood is down to about $450 or less (24%). I would not bet against a 50% drop from the highs again.

Even for rational persons, once the numbers start to line up, it will become an emotional decision as always…

Hope this helps and good luck,

Lucky In OC

[Anonymous]

TG,

Buying is OK. It is all a matter of price, not timimg. No one asks ‘when’ you bought the home…..just for ‘how much’.

The best advice i’ve heard over the times following many blogs is the 100x rental income metric. Rental incomes reflect people’s ability to pay based on housing vs. employment. If the house you want rents for $2,500/month, history has it, that it wont fall below $250K sales price. If you see rental prices comming down due to oversupply or job losses, or interest rates going up, adjust accordingly.

The majority of people will always buy houses when they can service the loan. People can always service the loan when the price is 100x rental (assuming 8% borrowing rates).

————————————————
The strategy to WIN becomes simple enough:

Select your best guess for:

– Interest rates
– rental prices bases on:
– supply
– employment
– median income

Then figure out the final price….100x is a good starting point, but you might want to research historical data. Temecula might have gone even less than 100x back in the mid 90s.

Then go to that perfect home, with the moat, the turret, and the drawbridge wearing footie pajamas and your burger king crown and offer exactly the price you are willing to pay with the proper cavats including offer expiration date (for short sales there has to be enough time to receive bank approval…ive heard it can be 2 months). When the realtor or owner laughs at you, show him the data and just tell him “ill buy it from you now, or from the bank later”

Walk away.

If the phone doesnt ring. Dont buy. If someone takes the offer, you can be confident in your decision.

Remember it isnt a question of when to buy, the question is how much. Forget the list price, you are the buyer, you decide, not them.

Houses are like hookers in Bangkok, if you dont like the one you’re looking at, there is always another just around the corner.

J

[waiting hawk]

You already won by waiting and you made the right choice. Either way would be fine. I am looking and will buy at anytime when the price of a cabin or primary is at the rental value with money down. Go with ocrenters advice and move on. If they drop further than you would ever have thought, just buy a few more 😉

[waiting hawk]

You already won by waiting and you made the right choice. Either way would be fine. I am looking and will buy at anytime when the price of a cabin or primary is at the rental value with money down. Go with ocrenters advice and move on. If they drop further than you would ever have thought, just buy a few more 😉

[waiting hawk]

You already won by waiting and you made the right choice. Either way would be fine. I am looking and will buy at anytime when the price of a cabin or primary is at the rental value with money down. Go with ocrenters advice and move on. If they drop further than you would ever have thought, just buy a few more 😉

[waiting hawk]

You already won by waiting and you made the right choice. Either way would be fine. I am looking and will buy at anytime when the price of a cabin or primary is at the rental value with money down. Go with ocrenters advice and move on. If they drop further than you would ever have thought, just buy a few more 😉

[Anonymous]

TG,

Buying is OK. It is all a matter of price, not timimg. No one asks ‘when’ you bought the home…..just for ‘how much’.

The best advice i’ve heard over the times following many blogs is the 100x rental income metric. Rental incomes reflect people’s ability to pay based on housing vs. employment. If the house you want rents for $2,500/month, history has it, that it wont fall below $250K sales price. If you see rental prices comming down due to oversupply or job losses, or interest rates going up, adjust accordingly.

The majority of people will always buy houses when they can service the loan. People can always service the loan when the price is 100x rental (assuming 8% borrowing rates).

————————————————
The strategy to WIN becomes simple enough:

Select your best guess for:

– Interest rates
– rental prices bases on:
– supply
– employment
– median income

Then figure out the final price….100x is a good starting point, but you might want to research historical data. Temecula might have gone even less than 100x back in the mid 90s.

Then go to that perfect home, with the moat, the turret, and the drawbridge wearing footie pajamas and your burger king crown and offer exactly the price you are willing to pay with the proper cavats including offer expiration date (for short sales there has to be enough time to receive bank approval…ive heard it can be 2 months). When the realtor or owner laughs at you, show him the data and just tell him “ill buy it from you now, or from the bank later”

Walk away.

If the phone doesnt ring. Dont buy. If someone takes the offer, you can be confident in your decision.

Remember it isnt a question of when to buy, the question is how much. Forget the list price, you are the buyer, you decide, not them.

Houses are like hookers in Bangkok, if you dont like the one you’re looking at, there is always another just around the corner.

J

[Anonymous]

TG,

Buying is OK. It is all a matter of price, not timimg. No one asks ‘when’ you bought the home…..just for ‘how much’.

The best advice i’ve heard over the times following many blogs is the 100x rental income metric. Rental incomes reflect people’s ability to pay based on housing vs. employment. If the house you want rents for $2,500/month, history has it, that it wont fall below $250K sales price. If you see rental prices comming down due to oversupply or job losses, or interest rates going up, adjust accordingly.

The majority of people will always buy houses when they can service the loan. People can always service the loan when the price is 100x rental (assuming 8% borrowing rates).

————————————————
The strategy to WIN becomes simple enough:

Select your best guess for:

– Interest rates
– rental prices bases on:
– supply
– employment
– median income

Then figure out the final price….100x is a good starting point, but you might want to research historical data. Temecula might have gone even less than 100x back in the mid 90s.

Then go to that perfect home, with the moat, the turret, and the drawbridge wearing footie pajamas and your burger king crown and offer exactly the price you are willing to pay with the proper cavats including offer expiration date (for short sales there has to be enough time to receive bank approval…ive heard it can be 2 months). When the realtor or owner laughs at you, show him the data and just tell him “ill buy it from you now, or from the bank later”

Walk away.

If the phone doesnt ring. Dont buy. If someone takes the offer, you can be confident in your decision.

Remember it isnt a question of when to buy, the question is how much. Forget the list price, you are the buyer, you decide, not them.

Houses are like hookers in Bangkok, if you dont like the one you’re looking at, there is always another just around the corner.

J

[Anonymous]

TG,

Buying is OK. It is all a matter of price, not timimg. No one asks ‘when’ you bought the home…..just for ‘how much’.

The best advice i’ve heard over the times following many blogs is the 100x rental income metric. Rental incomes reflect people’s ability to pay based on housing vs. employment. If the house you want rents for $2,500/month, history has it, that it wont fall below $250K sales price. If you see rental prices comming down due to oversupply or job losses, or interest rates going up, adjust accordingly.

The majority of people will always buy houses when they can service the loan. People can always service the loan when the price is 100x rental (assuming 8% borrowing rates).

————————————————
The strategy to WIN becomes simple enough:

Select your best guess for:

– Interest rates
– rental prices bases on:
– supply
– employment
– median income

Then figure out the final price….100x is a good starting point, but you might want to research historical data. Temecula might have gone even less than 100x back in the mid 90s.

Then go to that perfect home, with the moat, the turret, and the drawbridge wearing footie pajamas and your burger king crown and offer exactly the price you are willing to pay with the proper cavats including offer expiration date (for short sales there has to be enough time to receive bank approval…ive heard it can be 2 months). When the realtor or owner laughs at you, show him the data and just tell him “ill buy it from you now, or from the bank later”

Walk away.

If the phone doesnt ring. Dont buy. If someone takes the offer, you can be confident in your decision.

Remember it isnt a question of when to buy, the question is how much. Forget the list price, you are the buyer, you decide, not them.

Houses are like hookers in Bangkok, if you dont like the one you’re looking at, there is always another just around the corner.

J

[lonestar2000]

Wow, these homes look nice, I wish we had similar properties in the San Bernardino area. Unfortunately prices on newer homes are still way above reasonable for the area income, although I’m seeing decent declines.

The price drop on the first linked property is nearly $200k, not bad if you ask me, but whether it will drop futher, and by how much, is not easy to gauge. My gut feeling is, that there are many more like you sitting on the sidelines, ready to catch the falling knife, and if the numbers add up you may just want to catch one sooner or later.

I’m not saying I see any particular bottom in sight, but considering your situation (being forced out of your rental) it may just be in your interest to start making some offers on a few of these properties. With the Christmas/winter season upon us there will be even less buyers in the market, so your bargaining powers are at a premium right now. Come spring, you’re going to start seeing increased competition, and if you MUST be out by Februray then now sounds like a good time to get into the game.

[patientlywaiting]

The recession is coming. Why would anyone be nuts enough to buy before then?

Resale inventory will skyrocket and only the most solid of homeowners will be left standing. Don’t catch the falling knife!

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the advice everyone, I am going to keep tabs on both the for sale and the for rent and I’ll let you know what happens. SD, I appreciate you weighing in but waiting hawk and oc make a good point, if right after christmas the rent/purchase line gets crossed, I may throw some extreme lowballs while making a plan for a month to month rental. mgubnyc, I am not worried what it will look like, the area I’m looking at has been around about 15 years and was one of the few places in the valley that survived the early nineties with regards to appearance and demographics, this isn’t my first rodeo and i am closing in on two decades in the area, so I’m good. The northern outskirts, like french valley, that will likely go downhill fast in the downturn.

Cbad, thank you for the compliment but pity or wonder is not required, the current single status is a choice and I’m pretty happy with that choice right now. In fact my house hunting is somewhat dominated with the plan to keep it that way. When I see a 5 or 6 bedroom house, I don’t see extra rooms, I see potential problems. I need a house that is big enough for me but not big enough that the next girfriend will want to move in, since I mostly date women my age and they usually have kids, that six bedroom is a brady bunch waiting to happen, I need a welcome mat that says “no camping, violators will be prosecuted.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the advice everyone, I am going to keep tabs on both the for sale and the for rent and I’ll let you know what happens. SD, I appreciate you weighing in but waiting hawk and oc make a good point, if right after christmas the rent/purchase line gets crossed, I may throw some extreme lowballs while making a plan for a month to month rental. mgubnyc, I am not worried what it will look like, the area I’m looking at has been around about 15 years and was one of the few places in the valley that survived the early nineties with regards to appearance and demographics, this isn’t my first rodeo and i am closing in on two decades in the area, so I’m good. The northern outskirts, like french valley, that will likely go downhill fast in the downturn.

Cbad, thank you for the compliment but pity or wonder is not required, the current single status is a choice and I’m pretty happy with that choice right now. In fact my house hunting is somewhat dominated with the plan to keep it that way. When I see a 5 or 6 bedroom house, I don’t see extra rooms, I see potential problems. I need a house that is big enough for me but not big enough that the next girfriend will want to move in, since I mostly date women my age and they usually have kids, that six bedroom is a brady bunch waiting to happen, I need a welcome mat that says “no camping, violators will be prosecuted.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the advice everyone, I am going to keep tabs on both the for sale and the for rent and I’ll let you know what happens. SD, I appreciate you weighing in but waiting hawk and oc make a good point, if right after christmas the rent/purchase line gets crossed, I may throw some extreme lowballs while making a plan for a month to month rental. mgubnyc, I am not worried what it will look like, the area I’m looking at has been around about 15 years and was one of the few places in the valley that survived the early nineties with regards to appearance and demographics, this isn’t my first rodeo and i am closing in on two decades in the area, so I’m good. The northern outskirts, like french valley, that will likely go downhill fast in the downturn.

Cbad, thank you for the compliment but pity or wonder is not required, the current single status is a choice and I’m pretty happy with that choice right now. In fact my house hunting is somewhat dominated with the plan to keep it that way. When I see a 5 or 6 bedroom house, I don’t see extra rooms, I see potential problems. I need a house that is big enough for me but not big enough that the next girfriend will want to move in, since I mostly date women my age and they usually have kids, that six bedroom is a brady bunch waiting to happen, I need a welcome mat that says “no camping, violators will be prosecuted.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the advice everyone, I am going to keep tabs on both the for sale and the for rent and I’ll let you know what happens. SD, I appreciate you weighing in but waiting hawk and oc make a good point, if right after christmas the rent/purchase line gets crossed, I may throw some extreme lowballs while making a plan for a month to month rental. mgubnyc, I am not worried what it will look like, the area I’m looking at has been around about 15 years and was one of the few places in the valley that survived the early nineties with regards to appearance and demographics, this isn’t my first rodeo and i am closing in on two decades in the area, so I’m good. The northern outskirts, like french valley, that will likely go downhill fast in the downturn.

Cbad, thank you for the compliment but pity or wonder is not required, the current single status is a choice and I’m pretty happy with that choice right now. In fact my house hunting is somewhat dominated with the plan to keep it that way. When I see a 5 or 6 bedroom house, I don’t see extra rooms, I see potential problems. I need a house that is big enough for me but not big enough that the next girfriend will want to move in, since I mostly date women my age and they usually have kids, that six bedroom is a brady bunch waiting to happen, I need a welcome mat that says “no camping, violators will be prosecuted.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the advice everyone, I am going to keep tabs on both the for sale and the for rent and I’ll let you know what happens. SD, I appreciate you weighing in but waiting hawk and oc make a good point, if right after christmas the rent/purchase line gets crossed, I may throw some extreme lowballs while making a plan for a month to month rental. mgubnyc, I am not worried what it will look like, the area I’m looking at has been around about 15 years and was one of the few places in the valley that survived the early nineties with regards to appearance and demographics, this isn’t my first rodeo and i am closing in on two decades in the area, so I’m good. The northern outskirts, like french valley, that will likely go downhill fast in the downturn.

Cbad, thank you for the compliment but pity or wonder is not required, the current single status is a choice and I’m pretty happy with that choice right now. In fact my house hunting is somewhat dominated with the plan to keep it that way. When I see a 5 or 6 bedroom house, I don’t see extra rooms, I see potential problems. I need a house that is big enough for me but not big enough that the next girfriend will want to move in, since I mostly date women my age and they usually have kids, that six bedroom is a brady bunch waiting to happen, I need a welcome mat that says “no camping, violators will be prosecuted.”

[patientlywaiting]

The recession is coming. Why would anyone be nuts enough to buy before then?

Resale inventory will skyrocket and only the most solid of homeowners will be left standing. Don’t catch the falling knife!

[patientlywaiting]

The recession is coming. Why would anyone be nuts enough to buy before then?

Resale inventory will skyrocket and only the most solid of homeowners will be left standing. Don’t catch the falling knife!

[patientlywaiting]

The recession is coming. Why would anyone be nuts enough to buy before then?

Resale inventory will skyrocket and only the most solid of homeowners will be left standing. Don’t catch the falling knife!

[lonestar2000]

Wow, these homes look nice, I wish we had similar properties in the San Bernardino area. Unfortunately prices on newer homes are still way above reasonable for the area income, although I’m seeing decent declines.

The price drop on the first linked property is nearly $200k, not bad if you ask me, but whether it will drop futher, and by how much, is not easy to gauge. My gut feeling is, that there are many more like you sitting on the sidelines, ready to catch the falling knife, and if the numbers add up you may just want to catch one sooner or later.

I’m not saying I see any particular bottom in sight, but considering your situation (being forced out of your rental) it may just be in your interest to start making some offers on a few of these properties. With the Christmas/winter season upon us there will be even less buyers in the market, so your bargaining powers are at a premium right now. Come spring, you’re going to start seeing increased competition, and if you MUST be out by Februray then now sounds like a good time to get into the game.

[lonestar2000]

Wow, these homes look nice, I wish we had similar properties in the San Bernardino area. Unfortunately prices on newer homes are still way above reasonable for the area income, although I’m seeing decent declines.

The price drop on the first linked property is nearly $200k, not bad if you ask me, but whether it will drop futher, and by how much, is not easy to gauge. My gut feeling is, that there are many more like you sitting on the sidelines, ready to catch the falling knife, and if the numbers add up you may just want to catch one sooner or later.

I’m not saying I see any particular bottom in sight, but considering your situation (being forced out of your rental) it may just be in your interest to start making some offers on a few of these properties. With the Christmas/winter season upon us there will be even less buyers in the market, so your bargaining powers are at a premium right now. Come spring, you’re going to start seeing increased competition, and if you MUST be out by Februray then now sounds like a good time to get into the game.

[lonestar2000]

Wow, these homes look nice, I wish we had similar properties in the San Bernardino area. Unfortunately prices on newer homes are still way above reasonable for the area income, although I’m seeing decent declines.

The price drop on the first linked property is nearly $200k, not bad if you ask me, but whether it will drop futher, and by how much, is not easy to gauge. My gut feeling is, that there are many more like you sitting on the sidelines, ready to catch the falling knife, and if the numbers add up you may just want to catch one sooner or later.

I’m not saying I see any particular bottom in sight, but considering your situation (being forced out of your rental) it may just be in your interest to start making some offers on a few of these properties. With the Christmas/winter season upon us there will be even less buyers in the market, so your bargaining powers are at a premium right now. Come spring, you’re going to start seeing increased competition, and if you MUST be out by Februray then now sounds like a good time to get into the game.

[Author]

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