Save TG, he’s reaching for the knife

[temeculaguy]

While this past year I have offered advice to many here and taken advice from many others, I find myself at a crossroads. A self professed reverse flipper, my first rental experience since the 80’s has me at my wits end, soon to be a foreclosure after only a few months in it and not wanting to sign a year lease in a new place. Summer or fall 08 was my target re-entry or re-evaluation date but forces beyond my control is making February a likely candidate. Since my life is a mirror image of “a family affair” (minus Mr. French), my needs are a low maintenance 3+ bdr 2000+ sq ft but with a three car garage in one of the snootier areas of Temecula (I know that the concept of a snooty area in Temecula is almost hard to comprehend for my S.D. friends). Well I’m finding them in my target price range, sub 2003 pricing in many instances and my hand is nearly outstretched to catch that falling knife and I need help from my friends. There are many examples of 400k range in the better parts of Redhawk and quite frankly I need people to tell me that 300k will happen. Case in point:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1148858

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1097879

against the backdrop of this and many like it in the same tract asking 600-800k still!!

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1281469

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164480

I am already familiar with the neighborhood, that is not the help I am looking for, what I am seeking is a rational justification for avoiding a neighborhood that was previously 600-800k and is now starting to show up with some at or near 400k, albeit brown lawners. For those of you unfamiliar with my plight, I can handily afford it with conventional financing, I am discerning (aka picky as hell) and it’s no longer an issue of affordability but a strategy at this point. While I plan to live in chosen house for a decade, I don’t want to throw away my money and in a sick way I am afraid to change sides and abandon this site, Save TG, talk me out of it. In the immortal words of Herb Brooks “If you lose this game you will take it to your %^$$&& grave.”

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[Coronita]

Have you considered the art of a squating? 🙂

Sorry, I couldnt resist. 

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[snail]

Those prices are close to reasonable….But I hate the stupid castle tower thingy. Hope that’s help

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[bearvine]

Tough Spot TG…In other posts I may have been a bit harsh in my comparisons of Temecula to other areas, but bottom line I still lurk on these boards so that shows I do like the area…You obviously know the area well, like living there, and the security of dictating your fate as an owner does give peace of mind. Unfortunately in Temecula there is not a predominance of foreign owners who put heavy down payments on their homes or a large corporate entity such as the Irvine Company to rent from.

Aside from running the tax records of your next rental to get a better picture, renting with security in Temecula is not an easy thing to do. You know what is best for you and your family, but for what it is worth, here is my take if I was in your position:

ID the area you want to stay, and eventually buy. If you have kids that will keep them in the same schools, and keep focus only on this area.
Rent a mailbox in this area where all bills go and for continuity.
Rent a storage unit where all non essential possessions go, and have organized with shelving for easy access.
Pick the best rental you can, and live simple and modestly in the home, where you can be ready to move with some friends’ help in a weekend.
Stay in tune with the market…

It’s not the easiest scenario, but it is the smartest, and we have practiced what we preach and did use the above scenario.

Why is it the smartest? Any bulls in this market are flat out wrong. The economy will be ok this year during the election year, and through the honeymoon period of the first year of whomever gets elected. Despite the economy being OK, housing is getting killed. When all the ARM resets hit in conjunction with the economy downtrend timing, it’s going to be VERY rough waters. But you know this already, and if you need further validation, check out the incredible analysis on Irvine housing blog. And as much as I like it in Temecula, and have concern for family and friends who own out there, bottom line is that area is going to get hit HARD, worse than SD or OC. Why? On the fringe, no jobs, the mortgage fraud scandal, lack of equity and stable owners, etc.

With that being said, many of the bears that lurk on these sites are just blindly wishing that prices will drop to nothing so that they could buy. That won’t happen either, and if it does, the dollar would be so weak anarchy would ensue.

I might be off in waiting for $80 sq ft, but $100 is realistic and $120 is a slam dunk in Temecula. So if you wait, you will save. If $300-400k for a house is streching it for you, save yourself from the unnecessary pressure of the financial burden of buying a home in a downward spiral market.

The stress of having to move on short notice is much easier to deal with.

[temeculaguy]

Flu, squatting is out but a nice idea, I’m a running water kind of guy.

Snail, I kinda like the castle thingy, I plan on getting a paper crown from burger king and putting it on to answer the door.

Bear, I’m with you but affordability isn’t the issue, 400k isn’t a stretch, but 300k would allow me even more discretionary income to invest (or spend on drinking, gambling and women of ill repute, o.k maybe not ill repute but below standard repute for sure). I actually laugh at my own frugality because I already did what you suggested, lived like a pauper on a kings salary and eventually gave in and rented something reasonable, my pauper days are over but it is still good advice. Realistically I can afford suitable housing, I’m just a cheap bastard who’s little bubble theory is getting to the point of insanity. I’m well into the six figures, no debt, loads of cash in money market accounts and stocks and I’m hemming and hawing over another 50k drop in prices, I feel almost petty. I agree that the the uber bears hoping for $75 houses are dreaming but is 300k out of line for the properties I listed? It’s no longer about money, my strategy has paid off thus far and have saved 200k, now it’s about winning, no matter where I buy I wan’t to have paid the least, dammit. It’s all about respect at the block party. Respected by men, desired by women, you get the picture, it’s down to ego now.

[temeculaguy]

Flu, squatting is out but a nice idea, I’m a running water kind of guy.

Snail, I kinda like the castle thingy, I plan on getting a paper crown from burger king and putting it on to answer the door.

Bear, I’m with you but affordability isn’t the issue, 400k isn’t a stretch, but 300k would allow me even more discretionary income to invest (or spend on drinking, gambling and women of ill repute, o.k maybe not ill repute but below standard repute for sure). I actually laugh at my own frugality because I already did what you suggested, lived like a pauper on a kings salary and eventually gave in and rented something reasonable, my pauper days are over but it is still good advice. Realistically I can afford suitable housing, I’m just a cheap bastard who’s little bubble theory is getting to the point of insanity. I’m well into the six figures, no debt, loads of cash in money market accounts and stocks and I’m hemming and hawing over another 50k drop in prices, I feel almost petty. I agree that the the uber bears hoping for $75 houses are dreaming but is 300k out of line for the properties I listed? It’s no longer about money, my strategy has paid off thus far and have saved 200k, now it’s about winning, no matter where I buy I wan’t to have paid the least, dammit. It’s all about respect at the block party. Respected by men, desired by women, you get the picture, it’s down to ego now.

[Author]

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