[garysears]

Total El Cajon MLS (according to ziprealty): 954
Total El Cajon REO and Auction (realtytrac): 764
If you include NODs (realtytrac): 1263

If you use the map search function on realtytrac to zoom out and recenter so only what appear to be San Diego county is included (Poway is north limit, Alpine is east limit):

REO and Auction properties: ~ 13,300
Including NODs: ~ 28,500

It looks to me like there are several months of inventory at current sales rates if you only include the REOs. Am I missing something?

For some reason I can’t get foreclosureradar.com search function to work right now but it lists properties by zipcode. You should easily be able to crosscheck those numbers against the MLS.

It would be interesting to track REO/Auction and NODs vs MLS for different zip codes. I think that for Spring Valley and Encanto it is possible the total MLS inventory is about the same as REO and Auction inventory. The distressed and “wish I could sell” inventory has to be just staggering.

“Wish I could sell” and “If I can sell” is starting to be a phrase I’m hearing at work.

[garysears]

I understand the explanation to mean that anyone who currently has an overinflated mortgage in a declining market could in theory get some of the loan forgiven.

It looks like it would all come down to a judgement by the bank as to who is likely to default without such debt forgiveness. It also appears it might encourage people to stop making payments in hopes of getting bailed out.

I’m thinking this incentive could make things more difficult for the banks. If I’ve been making payments on time, but am tired of the debt burden, why shouldn’t I stop paying, get a NOD as leverage, and request my “bail out”? It seems this “cure” might cause more NODs and loan writedowns than would otherwise happen.

[garysears]

I understand the explanation to mean that anyone who currently has an overinflated mortgage in a declining market could in theory get some of the loan forgiven.

It looks like it would all come down to a judgement by the bank as to who is likely to default without such debt forgiveness. It also appears it might encourage people to stop making payments in hopes of getting bailed out.

I’m thinking this incentive could make things more difficult for the banks. If I’ve been making payments on time, but am tired of the debt burden, why shouldn’t I stop paying, get a NOD as leverage, and request my “bail out”? It seems this “cure” might cause more NODs and loan writedowns than would otherwise happen.

[garysears]

I understand the explanation to mean that anyone who currently has an overinflated mortgage in a declining market could in theory get some of the loan forgiven.

It looks like it would all come down to a judgement by the bank as to who is likely to default without such debt forgiveness. It also appears it might encourage people to stop making payments in hopes of getting bailed out.

I’m thinking this incentive could make things more difficult for the banks. If I’ve been making payments on time, but am tired of the debt burden, why shouldn’t I stop paying, get a NOD as leverage, and request my “bail out”? It seems this “cure” might cause more NODs and loan writedowns than would otherwise happen.

[garysears]

I understand the explanation to mean that anyone who currently has an overinflated mortgage in a declining market could in theory get some of the loan forgiven.

It looks like it would all come down to a judgement by the bank as to who is likely to default without such debt forgiveness. It also appears it might encourage people to stop making payments in hopes of getting bailed out.

I’m thinking this incentive could make things more difficult for the banks. If I’ve been making payments on time, but am tired of the debt burden, why shouldn’t I stop paying, get a NOD as leverage, and request my “bail out”? It seems this “cure” might cause more NODs and loan writedowns than would otherwise happen.

[garysears]

I understand the explanation to mean that anyone who currently has an overinflated mortgage in a declining market could in theory get some of the loan forgiven.

It looks like it would all come down to a judgement by the bank as to who is likely to default without such debt forgiveness. It also appears it might encourage people to stop making payments in hopes of getting bailed out.

I’m thinking this incentive could make things more difficult for the banks. If I’ve been making payments on time, but am tired of the debt burden, why shouldn’t I stop paying, get a NOD as leverage, and request my “bail out”? It seems this “cure” might cause more NODs and loan writedowns than would otherwise happen.

[garysears]

I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the “shadow” REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.

————-

I’ve been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to http://www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed “hidden” inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.

I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.

[garysears]

I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the “shadow” REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.

————-

I’ve been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to http://www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed “hidden” inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.

I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.

[garysears]

I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the “shadow” REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.

————-

I’ve been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to http://www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed “hidden” inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.

I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.

[garysears]

I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the “shadow” REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.

————-

I’ve been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to http://www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed “hidden” inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.

I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.

[garysears]

I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the “shadow” REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.

————-

I’ve been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to http://www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed “hidden” inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.

I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.

[garysears]

Update Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.

Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)

From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.

Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!

Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.

For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.

There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.

[garysears]

Update Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.

Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)

From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.

Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!

Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.

For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.

There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.

[garysears]

Update Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.

Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)

From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.

Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!

Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.

For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.

There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.

[garysears]

Update Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.

Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)

From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.

Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!

Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.

For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.

There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.

[Author]

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