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garysears.
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October 15, 2007 at 8:43 PM #10629May 11, 2008 at 4:16 PM #202438
garysears
ParticipantUpdate Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!
Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.
For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.
There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.May 11, 2008 at 4:16 PM #202484garysears
ParticipantUpdate Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!
Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.
For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.
There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.May 11, 2008 at 4:16 PM #202512garysears
ParticipantUpdate Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!
Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.
For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.
There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.May 11, 2008 at 4:16 PM #202535garysears
ParticipantUpdate Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!
Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.
For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.
There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.May 11, 2008 at 4:16 PM #202572garysears
ParticipantUpdate Time.
It’s going on 7 months later and it appears the developer is winning. There is evidently a bottomless pool of stupid buyers out there. The lack of ability to do basic research is unbelievable, especially considering how easy the internet makes it.Check out the last 5 sales of the 2bd/2ba units:
#104 2/2 801 $289,900 10/15/07
#127 2/2 801 $200,000 11/29/07
#106 2/2 801 $289,900 12/05/07
#226 2/2 801 $200,000 04/08/08
#221 2/2 801 $261,400 04/22/08
(source: San Diego County Assessor Website)From my original post, note that #127 was an REO listed for $253,900, and someone bought it a month later for $200,000.
But then less than a week after that sale someone paid $289,900 for a “new” one from the developer.Four months went by without any sales, and then #226, an REO or short sale, sold for $200,000. Again, two weeks after that sale someone paid $261,400 for the identical place!
Today there is another 2bd/2ba REO (#230) in the complex listed for $131,300! Even more astonishing, the listed date was 4/22/08! That is the same date someone paid $261,400 and only 2 weeks after the REO or short sale price of $200,000! There is nothing quite like paying double what you should have. I’ll take an instant 50% loss please. I am further astonished that any bank would make that loan.
For the past six months I’ve been wondering why the developer continues to have the sales office manned. Now I know why. Because people really must just come in off the street and pay full asking price without doing any market research first. Wow.
There continue to be a few attempted short sales in the 165-170K range. But I’m starting to think the developer will get an exceptionally high price for all the remaining units, given the recent sales. I wonder if anyone else will pay double the market value in the next few months.
Unlike Ditech.com I don’t believe that “People are Smart”. Maybe Ditech.com made that loan.May 12, 2008 at 6:56 AM #202558EconProf
ParticipantBobS
This info is a real challenge to those of us who believe most people tend to make informed choices on the biggest purchase of their lives. It would be interesting to talk to owners in the parking lot or pool area to get some direct insights outside of your data points. Owners always have an opinion on prices in their complex, so it could reveal something else going on.
Keep us informed.May 12, 2008 at 6:56 AM #202604EconProf
ParticipantBobS
This info is a real challenge to those of us who believe most people tend to make informed choices on the biggest purchase of their lives. It would be interesting to talk to owners in the parking lot or pool area to get some direct insights outside of your data points. Owners always have an opinion on prices in their complex, so it could reveal something else going on.
Keep us informed.May 12, 2008 at 6:56 AM #202631EconProf
ParticipantBobS
This info is a real challenge to those of us who believe most people tend to make informed choices on the biggest purchase of their lives. It would be interesting to talk to owners in the parking lot or pool area to get some direct insights outside of your data points. Owners always have an opinion on prices in their complex, so it could reveal something else going on.
Keep us informed.May 12, 2008 at 6:56 AM #202656EconProf
ParticipantBobS
This info is a real challenge to those of us who believe most people tend to make informed choices on the biggest purchase of their lives. It would be interesting to talk to owners in the parking lot or pool area to get some direct insights outside of your data points. Owners always have an opinion on prices in their complex, so it could reveal something else going on.
Keep us informed.May 12, 2008 at 6:56 AM #202690EconProf
ParticipantBobS
This info is a real challenge to those of us who believe most people tend to make informed choices on the biggest purchase of their lives. It would be interesting to talk to owners in the parking lot or pool area to get some direct insights outside of your data points. Owners always have an opinion on prices in their complex, so it could reveal something else going on.
Keep us informed.April 6, 2009 at 10:21 AM #376738garysears
ParticipantApril 2009 Update
I’ve posted about this particular complex in 3 different posts regarding El Cajon condos.
If interested, see also:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
and
http://piggington.com/alder_woods_condos_el_cajon
I added this post here to show that the REOs have finally defeated the developer. I noticed last month that the sign on the fence along the 67 that used to advertise the release of the final phase is now advertising leases. That leads me to believe the developer has pulled the remaining unsold units from the market and is now renting them out. Or maybe they are still trying to sell them as well. I haven’t checked to see if the sales office is still open.
According to their website they are still selling:
http://www.alderwoodscondos.com/index.html
Recent 2 bedroom prices on the MLS are around 100K.
1423 Graves Ave #215 (2/1) $98,500
MLS 0900107931423 Graves Ave #140 (2/1) $105,000
MLS 090004367Last recent sale I can find on the county assessor website is:
1423 #164 GRAVES AVE $134,500 sold 01/05/2009
(note this is a 2 bd, 2 ba)I get the feeling that even though prices are down around 2/3 from the peak there is still significant downward pressure. I’m thinking prices in this complex are likely headed into the 80ks or lower. If I were still interested in condos my offer would probably be in the 70Ks.
April 6, 2009 at 10:21 AM #377018garysears
ParticipantApril 2009 Update
I’ve posted about this particular complex in 3 different posts regarding El Cajon condos.
If interested, see also:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
and
http://piggington.com/alder_woods_condos_el_cajon
I added this post here to show that the REOs have finally defeated the developer. I noticed last month that the sign on the fence along the 67 that used to advertise the release of the final phase is now advertising leases. That leads me to believe the developer has pulled the remaining unsold units from the market and is now renting them out. Or maybe they are still trying to sell them as well. I haven’t checked to see if the sales office is still open.
According to their website they are still selling:
http://www.alderwoodscondos.com/index.html
Recent 2 bedroom prices on the MLS are around 100K.
1423 Graves Ave #215 (2/1) $98,500
MLS 0900107931423 Graves Ave #140 (2/1) $105,000
MLS 090004367Last recent sale I can find on the county assessor website is:
1423 #164 GRAVES AVE $134,500 sold 01/05/2009
(note this is a 2 bd, 2 ba)I get the feeling that even though prices are down around 2/3 from the peak there is still significant downward pressure. I’m thinking prices in this complex are likely headed into the 80ks or lower. If I were still interested in condos my offer would probably be in the 70Ks.
April 6, 2009 at 10:21 AM #377195garysears
ParticipantApril 2009 Update
I’ve posted about this particular complex in 3 different posts regarding El Cajon condos.
If interested, see also:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
and
http://piggington.com/alder_woods_condos_el_cajon
I added this post here to show that the REOs have finally defeated the developer. I noticed last month that the sign on the fence along the 67 that used to advertise the release of the final phase is now advertising leases. That leads me to believe the developer has pulled the remaining unsold units from the market and is now renting them out. Or maybe they are still trying to sell them as well. I haven’t checked to see if the sales office is still open.
According to their website they are still selling:
http://www.alderwoodscondos.com/index.html
Recent 2 bedroom prices on the MLS are around 100K.
1423 Graves Ave #215 (2/1) $98,500
MLS 0900107931423 Graves Ave #140 (2/1) $105,000
MLS 090004367Last recent sale I can find on the county assessor website is:
1423 #164 GRAVES AVE $134,500 sold 01/05/2009
(note this is a 2 bd, 2 ba)I get the feeling that even though prices are down around 2/3 from the peak there is still significant downward pressure. I’m thinking prices in this complex are likely headed into the 80ks or lower. If I were still interested in condos my offer would probably be in the 70Ks.
April 6, 2009 at 10:21 AM #377238garysears
ParticipantApril 2009 Update
I’ve posted about this particular complex in 3 different posts regarding El Cajon condos.
If interested, see also:
http://piggington.com/el_cajon_condo_blowout_27_in_8_months
and
http://piggington.com/alder_woods_condos_el_cajon
I added this post here to show that the REOs have finally defeated the developer. I noticed last month that the sign on the fence along the 67 that used to advertise the release of the final phase is now advertising leases. That leads me to believe the developer has pulled the remaining unsold units from the market and is now renting them out. Or maybe they are still trying to sell them as well. I haven’t checked to see if the sales office is still open.
According to their website they are still selling:
http://www.alderwoodscondos.com/index.html
Recent 2 bedroom prices on the MLS are around 100K.
1423 Graves Ave #215 (2/1) $98,500
MLS 0900107931423 Graves Ave #140 (2/1) $105,000
MLS 090004367Last recent sale I can find on the county assessor website is:
1423 #164 GRAVES AVE $134,500 sold 01/05/2009
(note this is a 2 bd, 2 ba)I get the feeling that even though prices are down around 2/3 from the peak there is still significant downward pressure. I’m thinking prices in this complex are likely headed into the 80ks or lower. If I were still interested in condos my offer would probably be in the 70Ks.
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