[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I gotta make this comment. Why are there so many on piggington.com saavy enough to see the crash in real estate prices, yet they don’t see how stock markets will obviously be negatively affected by the real estate bubble imploding? I don’t understand why so many on here are holding long positions in stock markets.

Some of us have used balanced portfolios for 10-20-30 years and expect occasional periods of -20% in our stocks. Some of us have been through several trying economic times and know that we don’t know everything and simply balance our bets based on long-term trends.
Some of us remember the recessions in the 70’s, stagflation, the double-dip recession of the early 1980’s, the crash of ’87 the dot-com bust of the 90’s, and countless other interruptions. Yet, still we have managed to build up a decent nest egg despite all these problems thanks to our friend named diversification.

Some of us don;t expect a 1930’s style depression.
Some of us believe that we cannot predict the future with 100% certainty and want to hedge our bets. Some of us have no problem holding negative bets against housing and positive bets on certain business sectors in the economy and negative bets on others.

And then there are those of us who are just too lazy or busy to adjust our portfolios (me) … and by being lazy often come out ahead of those who trade more often.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

It depends what part of Clairemont you are talking about. The northwest and northern sections near Clairemont square for example will likely start hitting 350K by next year. Some listings are already currently under 400K.
If you are looking at more desireable Clairemont areas, such as the Mount Streets it’s a bit higher, and not likely (IMO) to get that low … yet.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Arguing on a blog is like the Special Olympics.

Even if you win, you still look retarded …

… not that there’s anything wrong with that.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Desert to the west, Mexico to the south, wineries north west.
Proximity to OC and LA….disneyland, etc….no brainer……

Geography : Desert is to the east

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The Living Room on Point Loma for coffee.

Nati’s In Ocean Beach for Mexican food

Dr. Hefe’s in Ocean Beach for a tatoo

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

You asked about things beside the weather. I thought I would knock off the easiest ones first.

For the record, these are also things I miss since I moved away.

Compare these to the usual activities available in Phoenix, Dallas, Austin, or St. Louis. There’s no comparison.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The Best of San Diego survey listed things like Olive Garden as best Italian, In and Out as best burger, Papa Johns was in the top 3 of best pizza. I mean come one people. There has to be better Italian than Olive Garden or a place that makes a mean burger that is better than In and Out. This city is so predictable. For goodness sakes, Statbucks for 8 straight years was best coffee. There is just no character to this city or is there?

The character in San Diego is not the food. If you want that you need to go to New York, Paris, or LA.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

45% Stocks (including around 7% in Asian, 5% Euro-zone), 35% short-term bond/cash equivalents, 10% commercial REITS, 10% commodities/short-term trades(e.g. short ETFs, gold ETFs)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Besides the weather ?

These aren’t hidden gems, but other 19 obvious things …

The obvious ones are the Beaches, Mission Bay, San Diego Bay, Sailing, taking 3/4 day fishing trips and catching Yellowtail, hiking along the coast (sunset cliffs, Torrey Pines reserve), Golf courses (e.g. Torrey Pines), Whale watching from Point Loma Lighthouse, taking kids to Sea World, Zoo and Wild Animal Park (off-season of course), taking trolleys to baseball and football games, Karl Strauss, taking the ferry to Coronado and renting bikes, good Mexican food, Del Mar Fair, No bugs.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Months of inventory is more important than the raw number.

San Diego is ahead of the other markets. The reduced inventory is the effect of people whoi thought they might want to sell and possibly move up, getting out of the market. What remains is a higher majority of those who have to sell because they are moving, can’t afford it, facing foreclosure, etc, as well as those who inherited their homes, and those who have held for a long time and need to downsize.
We are likely to see a similar effect in the other SO Cal markets next year.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

You have to buy at the bottom or right before it hits the bottom, if you want the most for your money.

This hasn;t been the case in the past. You could have bought in 1999 and would have missed a fraction of the gains from the 1996 bottom.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Why work hard and save at all?

This is a slap in the face to everyone that does the ‘right thing’, lives below their means, forgoes needless luxury items and saves to buy a home properly and saves for rainy days.

I have to disagree. Those who live below their means and save to buy a home properly will ALWAYS be better off than those who don’t.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A single data point on the extreme tail of the distribution is meaningless.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Since the mortgage rates are somehow tied to the this 10yr bond why haven’t the rates come down?

Risk Premium

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

In a rapidly changing market it might actually help to do range pricing. For example, when prices were skyrocketing with little inventory it was difficult to accurately determine within less than 10% what your house would sell for.

We sold ours using a pricing range in 2005. It was on the market for about 3 weeks with about 3 dozen showings and sold at about 60% above the min 40% below the max range.
AT the time there were virtually no houses on the market within +/- 100K in the neighborhood.

Similarly in the current market, with credit drying up and price declines beginning to accelerate, it is difficult to establish what a house might sell for. There is now way to predict the actual sale price of a house to within 5% anyway. To me it is simply admitting that there is variability and uncertainty in the market.

[Author]

Posts