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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantIt will be paid by changing the tax benefits of selling a second house – now if you sell your primary residence and take the capital gains benefit, then you live in your second home for two years and sell you can only take the capital gains tax benefit for that portion of time you lived in the second house.
Peace – where did you find this nugget ?
October 4, 2007 at 9:37 AM in reply to: Secretly stacking the deck against renters/prudent RE investors #86941ParticipantDon’t worry, it’s a win-win situation for you.
First, if they really are out to get you, that means you are not paranoid.
Second, if you are paranoid, then they are not really out to get you and things will turn out OK.October 3, 2007 at 3:25 PM in reply to: Housing prices in free fall along Mount Soledad Road in La Jolla #86861ParticipantYour standard homeowners’ policy does not cover this because it is caused by earth movement. This includes damage by earthquake, landslides, and the like.
ParticipantNot true at all, I recently went looking for rentals and most everything I found was not investors renting, it was people who had moved out to a new place (relocs, downsizing empty nest, etc), and they could not move their old house, so they rented it.
I was being sarcastic.
Your example is the exception that proves the rule. Those folks are reluctant investors.
ParticipantMy problem: I have actually found a pretty nice house to rent in Solana Beach, but the owner is an investor.
I hate to be the first one to break this news to you, BUT no matter whom you rent from, the owner of that property is going to be an investor.
ParticipantMeanwhile, the dollar lose purchasing power daily….
Yes. That’s why a balanced breakfast also includes foreign stocks (e.g. EFA, EWJ, EWH etfs to name a few) , short dollar positions (e.g. UDN), Gold, maybe some commodities (e.g. DBC), and large US companies (JNJ, PG) that benefit somewhat from a weaker dollar.October 2, 2007 at 11:52 AM in reply to: 12 reductions, 533 days on market, still no buyer, Mira Mesa #86728ParticipantIt looks like you share a common wall with the house next door. Is that what twin home means, basically a townhome?
We used to call those duplexes.
ParticipantHistorically, markets don’t stay high for long when the entire bull case is “hoping for another rate cut.”
I agree that there is certainly downside risk in the market based on decaying economic conditions. But I am not genius enough to predict the outcome. However, I disagree with the opinion that the stock market is currently “high”. Even after the recent run-up, the P/E for the S&P 500 is currently about 14.9. That’s about the average over the past 125 years.
I also don’t think the entire bull case is built on “hoping for another rate cut”. That point of view is simply the daily media chatter for explaining yesterday’s market fluctuation.
ParticipantHere is the public school explanation …
Certainly the Earth revolves around the Sun from the perspective of the Solar system or the Universe for that matter. However, if one transforms the coordinate system to be Earth centered, it appears that the Sun (and indeed the entire Universe) moves about the Earth. It’s all relative. There is no wrong answer Johnny, as long as you feel good about it.ParticipantThis is why some of us believe in a balanced portfolio, including stocks (both US and foreign), cash, with some added spice of gold, commodities and some selected short positions (e.g. the dollar), plus for me … even a dash of real estate.
Some of us have been around long enough to know there are plenty of ways to be wrong about the markets. And timing is the toughest thing to be correct on.
Real estate and cash holdings helped me get through the stock bust of 2000-2003. Foreign stocks, shorting the dollar, and cash will probably help me get through the current bear market in real estate. If you have balance, you don’t have to be right every time.
For example, knowing that real estate was overvalued in 2003 didn’t do you much good if you cashed out and tried to short at that time. Same goes for following Greenspan’s irrational exubberance advice in 1996 and shorting the overvalued stock market all the way to the poorhouse. Sure he was eventually right. But timing is critical to all-or-nothing positions.ParticipantI just answered “B” to all of them and got a 41%. I am sure that would beat 50% of the population.
Participant“The economy may be more self healing than any of us thought.”
This ought to cheer you up, then …
San Diego economic forecast looks ‘pretty bad’http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070928-9999-1b28sdecon.html
September 27, 2007 at 8:45 AM in reply to: VOTE: state of the bubble collapse, Worse, OR Better than your expectation? #86086ParticipantIt is happening FASTER than I expected.
As of July we are already down almost 14% from the peak on an inflation adjusted basis
see here …At the peak we were at a point where one would expect about 45% correction in price + inflation to return to “normal”.
It seems we are just getting started, but are already a third of the way there (not counting the rotten conditions in August-September).I expect to see another 5% or more taken out by the end of the year in HPI, based on seasonal factors and mortgage turmoil. Combined with another 1-2% of inflation from July to end of 2007, that would put us nearly half-way through the magnitude of decline expected (assuming we were 45% overvalued in real terms).
At the end of 2007, we’ll already be half-way down the hill (or more), in my opinion. Definitely faster than I expected.
September 27, 2007 at 8:00 AM in reply to: VOTE: state of the bubble collapse, Worse, OR Better than your expectation? #86074ParticipantThis ain’t the 90’s. Back then, ARM loans were the exception, not the norm. 100% financing in the 90’s? Unheard of.
BUT, they did have 100% financing back then. Also, instead of option ARMs, the killer loan back then were loans with balloon payments. No rate adjustment, nothing, you HAD to refinance after X years or pay it off completely.
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