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November 13, 2007 at 10:18 AM in reply to: Home prices to keep sliding with no bottom in sight #99069November 13, 2007 at 10:18 AM in reply to: Home prices to keep sliding with no bottom in sight #99087
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantUh oh !
When the mass media starts saying there is no bottom in sight, it makes me start to think. When this line of thinking prevails broadly, that’s when I would start looking for signs of a bottom.November 13, 2007 at 10:18 AM in reply to: Home prices to keep sliding with no bottom in sight #99092ParticipantUh oh !
When the mass media starts saying there is no bottom in sight, it makes me start to think. When this line of thinking prevails broadly, that’s when I would start looking for signs of a bottom.ParticipantGreat idea. Just make sure you aren’t also listening to yourself.
ParticipantGreat idea. Just make sure you aren’t also listening to yourself.
ParticipantGreat idea. Just make sure you aren’t also listening to yourself.
ParticipantGreat idea. Just make sure you aren’t also listening to yourself.
ParticipantChris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.
ParticipantChris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.
ParticipantChris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.
ParticipantChris – Thanks for checking back in. We appreciate the insight. I know it can be frustrating presenting a balanced and sometimes positive case inside the den of bears. But again it is greatly appreciated.
ParticipantI took a quick look. The reported Price/Rent ratios seem inflated. I would not have any confidence believing their metric of over-pricedness.
Take San Diego, for instance.
They computed a P/R = 34 as of June 2007.I don;t have NAR median price of existing home for June, but I see that Sept was 593K.
593K/34 = 17441. This means 1453 per month.
No way a median priced home in San Diego rents for that cheap ! TTake Clairemont, which is significantly below median price, somewhere around 500K. Those houses rent for about 2000 per month. This gives a P/R of about 21.
My guess is that their ratios are inflated both for the current situation and for the long-term average. Their general concept is correct. The quantitative predictions are suspect.
For what it’s worth, I think an additional 34% correction in San Diego’s nominal prices (not inflation adjusted) is too pessimistic. At some point, the media will be universally overly pessimistic to the downside.
ParticipantI took a quick look. The reported Price/Rent ratios seem inflated. I would not have any confidence believing their metric of over-pricedness.
Take San Diego, for instance.
They computed a P/R = 34 as of June 2007.I don;t have NAR median price of existing home for June, but I see that Sept was 593K.
593K/34 = 17441. This means 1453 per month.
No way a median priced home in San Diego rents for that cheap ! TTake Clairemont, which is significantly below median price, somewhere around 500K. Those houses rent for about 2000 per month. This gives a P/R of about 21.
My guess is that their ratios are inflated both for the current situation and for the long-term average. Their general concept is correct. The quantitative predictions are suspect.
For what it’s worth, I think an additional 34% correction in San Diego’s nominal prices (not inflation adjusted) is too pessimistic. At some point, the media will be universally overly pessimistic to the downside.
ParticipantI took a quick look. The reported Price/Rent ratios seem inflated. I would not have any confidence believing their metric of over-pricedness.
Take San Diego, for instance.
They computed a P/R = 34 as of June 2007.I don;t have NAR median price of existing home for June, but I see that Sept was 593K.
593K/34 = 17441. This means 1453 per month.
No way a median priced home in San Diego rents for that cheap ! TTake Clairemont, which is significantly below median price, somewhere around 500K. Those houses rent for about 2000 per month. This gives a P/R of about 21.
My guess is that their ratios are inflated both for the current situation and for the long-term average. Their general concept is correct. The quantitative predictions are suspect.
For what it’s worth, I think an additional 34% correction in San Diego’s nominal prices (not inflation adjusted) is too pessimistic. At some point, the media will be universally overly pessimistic to the downside.
ParticipantI took a quick look. The reported Price/Rent ratios seem inflated. I would not have any confidence believing their metric of over-pricedness.
Take San Diego, for instance.
They computed a P/R = 34 as of June 2007.I don;t have NAR median price of existing home for June, but I see that Sept was 593K.
593K/34 = 17441. This means 1453 per month.
No way a median priced home in San Diego rents for that cheap ! TTake Clairemont, which is significantly below median price, somewhere around 500K. Those houses rent for about 2000 per month. This gives a P/R of about 21.
My guess is that their ratios are inflated both for the current situation and for the long-term average. Their general concept is correct. The quantitative predictions are suspect.
For what it’s worth, I think an additional 34% correction in San Diego’s nominal prices (not inflation adjusted) is too pessimistic. At some point, the media will be universally overly pessimistic to the downside.
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