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December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #117904December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118035
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118067Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118107Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118130Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
ParticipantWhy couldn’t they have gone to the lender and laid it all out, with full documentation?
The underwriter sees employment income at a job 200 miles from new house that the buyers is calling their personal residence. Underwriter thinks buyer is trying to buy investment property and get owner-occupied rate.
Why would the full-doc lender not reach the same positive conclusion the borrowers did?
One the buyer says they are leaving their current job, lender assumes income goes to zero. How does one document income from a new job using two pay stubs. It’s a Square peg, round hole problem.
And why isn’t it the lender’s prerogative to make that judgment, whether positive or negative? You are right. It’s their money (sometimes). They make the rules. In this case they made the judgement of having stated income (but not completely no-doc because assets were documented) in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate.
Just trying to point out that stated income, low doc loans are useful for a lot of situations outside of flippers, liars and tax cheats.
By the way, I am Joe Blo.
ParticipantWhy couldn’t they have gone to the lender and laid it all out, with full documentation?
The underwriter sees employment income at a job 200 miles from new house that the buyers is calling their personal residence. Underwriter thinks buyer is trying to buy investment property and get owner-occupied rate.
Why would the full-doc lender not reach the same positive conclusion the borrowers did?
One the buyer says they are leaving their current job, lender assumes income goes to zero. How does one document income from a new job using two pay stubs. It’s a Square peg, round hole problem.
And why isn’t it the lender’s prerogative to make that judgment, whether positive or negative? You are right. It’s their money (sometimes). They make the rules. In this case they made the judgement of having stated income (but not completely no-doc because assets were documented) in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate.
Just trying to point out that stated income, low doc loans are useful for a lot of situations outside of flippers, liars and tax cheats.
By the way, I am Joe Blo.
ParticipantWhy couldn’t they have gone to the lender and laid it all out, with full documentation?
The underwriter sees employment income at a job 200 miles from new house that the buyers is calling their personal residence. Underwriter thinks buyer is trying to buy investment property and get owner-occupied rate.
Why would the full-doc lender not reach the same positive conclusion the borrowers did?
One the buyer says they are leaving their current job, lender assumes income goes to zero. How does one document income from a new job using two pay stubs. It’s a Square peg, round hole problem.
And why isn’t it the lender’s prerogative to make that judgment, whether positive or negative? You are right. It’s their money (sometimes). They make the rules. In this case they made the judgement of having stated income (but not completely no-doc because assets were documented) in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate.
Just trying to point out that stated income, low doc loans are useful for a lot of situations outside of flippers, liars and tax cheats.
By the way, I am Joe Blo.
ParticipantWhy couldn’t they have gone to the lender and laid it all out, with full documentation?
The underwriter sees employment income at a job 200 miles from new house that the buyers is calling their personal residence. Underwriter thinks buyer is trying to buy investment property and get owner-occupied rate.
Why would the full-doc lender not reach the same positive conclusion the borrowers did?
One the buyer says they are leaving their current job, lender assumes income goes to zero. How does one document income from a new job using two pay stubs. It’s a Square peg, round hole problem.
And why isn’t it the lender’s prerogative to make that judgment, whether positive or negative? You are right. It’s their money (sometimes). They make the rules. In this case they made the judgement of having stated income (but not completely no-doc because assets were documented) in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate.
Just trying to point out that stated income, low doc loans are useful for a lot of situations outside of flippers, liars and tax cheats.
By the way, I am Joe Blo.
ParticipantWhy couldn’t they have gone to the lender and laid it all out, with full documentation?
The underwriter sees employment income at a job 200 miles from new house that the buyers is calling their personal residence. Underwriter thinks buyer is trying to buy investment property and get owner-occupied rate.
Why would the full-doc lender not reach the same positive conclusion the borrowers did?
One the buyer says they are leaving their current job, lender assumes income goes to zero. How does one document income from a new job using two pay stubs. It’s a Square peg, round hole problem.
And why isn’t it the lender’s prerogative to make that judgment, whether positive or negative? You are right. It’s their money (sometimes). They make the rules. In this case they made the judgement of having stated income (but not completely no-doc because assets were documented) in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate.
Just trying to point out that stated income, low doc loans are useful for a lot of situations outside of flippers, liars and tax cheats.
By the way, I am Joe Blo.
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #117869ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118000ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118032ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118073ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM in reply to: Survey: 60% homeowners still think prices are going to increase soon #118094ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
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