- This topic has 55 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
SD Realtor.
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AuthorPosts
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December 15, 2007 at 10:59 AM #11219
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December 15, 2007 at 11:03 AM #117808
SD Realtor
ParticipantRecall the post that RO made not long ago that had the parabolic graph? Denial is still a very ugly…yet real thing.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 11:59 AM #117840
JWM in SD
Participant“Proof that seller sentiment has still not changed a lot which is why prices are still staying flat.”
Well, 12 months ago that % would have been a lot higher than 60% no? I’d say progress has been made.
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December 15, 2007 at 12:05 PM #117855
Ex-SD
ParticipantJust wait and see what the number is when next summer is over and the inventory of unsold homes is even higher and sales are at a record low.
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December 15, 2007 at 12:05 PM #117985
Ex-SD
ParticipantJust wait and see what the number is when next summer is over and the inventory of unsold homes is even higher and sales are at a record low.
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December 15, 2007 at 12:05 PM #118017
Ex-SD
ParticipantJust wait and see what the number is when next summer is over and the inventory of unsold homes is even higher and sales are at a record low.
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December 15, 2007 at 12:05 PM #118058
Ex-SD
ParticipantJust wait and see what the number is when next summer is over and the inventory of unsold homes is even higher and sales are at a record low.
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December 15, 2007 at 12:05 PM #118080
Ex-SD
ParticipantJust wait and see what the number is when next summer is over and the inventory of unsold homes is even higher and sales are at a record low.
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December 15, 2007 at 12:15 PM #117864
HLS
ParticipantYa gotta love surveys like this…
1168 people surveyed..Was it a large elementary school ?
How can they event print something like this and infer that there is any accuracy ?
There are no demographics at all.They could have asked people in a strong area OR a bubble area, and get different responses.
My survey says that 9 out of 10 surveys are silly.
“The survey is the latest evidence that the U.S. housing slump, now in its third year, will linger longer than expected”
HUH ?? Longer than WHO expected ? How long will it be ?
I expect it to last 5 years. -
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM #117869
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:35 PM #117889
HLS
ParticipantViewing this “poll” as anything is silly.
“The survey found 21 percent of the 1,168 surveyed see a fall in prices, with those heavily concentrated in areas that have already seen values decline”
Why do you assume it’s nationwide ? The only fact is 1168 people. They could have been real estate agents.
They could have been people who were called during dinner.I cannot understand why anybody would even waste their time. Without demographics, it’s complety random, with nothing to indicate that it is a “nationwide” poll.
If it had a positive spin, it’s what I would expect from the NAR. It’s less useful than a press release that cites the median.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM #117904
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
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December 15, 2007 at 2:02 PM #117909
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantOther random polls :
Some people expect a recession …
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2060490120071121Many don’t like George Bush …
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1624620720071017And these results were based on fewer samples than the expected housing price poll.
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December 15, 2007 at 5:02 PM #118007
RatherOpinionated
Participant[img_assist|nid=5698|title=Sentiment Cycles|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
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December 15, 2007 at 6:12 PM #118081
davelj
ParticipantI’d say we’re somewhere between denial and fear at this point.
Seeing the “Temporary set back” line reminds me of a Wall Street joke:
What’s the definition of a long-term investment? A short-term speculation gone wrong.
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December 15, 2007 at 6:35 PM #118086
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell since this is the second time RO posted that treasure I will post the exact same response. I feel there is a shmear of people that span all 3 categories starting at denial and heading downward.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 6:35 PM #118217
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell since this is the second time RO posted that treasure I will post the exact same response. I feel there is a shmear of people that span all 3 categories starting at denial and heading downward.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 6:35 PM #118252
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell since this is the second time RO posted that treasure I will post the exact same response. I feel there is a shmear of people that span all 3 categories starting at denial and heading downward.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 6:35 PM #118293
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell since this is the second time RO posted that treasure I will post the exact same response. I feel there is a shmear of people that span all 3 categories starting at denial and heading downward.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 6:35 PM #118314
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell since this is the second time RO posted that treasure I will post the exact same response. I feel there is a shmear of people that span all 3 categories starting at denial and heading downward.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 6:12 PM #118212
davelj
ParticipantI’d say we’re somewhere between denial and fear at this point.
Seeing the “Temporary set back” line reminds me of a Wall Street joke:
What’s the definition of a long-term investment? A short-term speculation gone wrong.
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December 15, 2007 at 6:12 PM #118247
davelj
ParticipantI’d say we’re somewhere between denial and fear at this point.
Seeing the “Temporary set back” line reminds me of a Wall Street joke:
What’s the definition of a long-term investment? A short-term speculation gone wrong.
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December 15, 2007 at 6:12 PM #118288
davelj
ParticipantI’d say we’re somewhere between denial and fear at this point.
Seeing the “Temporary set back” line reminds me of a Wall Street joke:
What’s the definition of a long-term investment? A short-term speculation gone wrong.
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December 15, 2007 at 6:12 PM #118309
davelj
ParticipantI’d say we’re somewhere between denial and fear at this point.
Seeing the “Temporary set back” line reminds me of a Wall Street joke:
What’s the definition of a long-term investment? A short-term speculation gone wrong.
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December 15, 2007 at 5:02 PM #118139
RatherOpinionated
Participant[img_assist|nid=5698|title=Sentiment Cycles|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
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December 15, 2007 at 5:02 PM #118173
RatherOpinionated
Participant[img_assist|nid=5698|title=Sentiment Cycles|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
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December 15, 2007 at 5:02 PM #118213
RatherOpinionated
Participant[img_assist|nid=5698|title=Sentiment Cycles|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
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December 15, 2007 at 5:02 PM #118235
RatherOpinionated
Participant[img_assist|nid=5698|title=Sentiment Cycles|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]
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December 15, 2007 at 2:02 PM #118040
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantOther random polls :
Some people expect a recession …
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2060490120071121Many don’t like George Bush …
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1624620720071017And these results were based on fewer samples than the expected housing price poll.
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December 15, 2007 at 2:02 PM #118072
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantOther random polls :
Some people expect a recession …
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2060490120071121Many don’t like George Bush …
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1624620720071017And these results were based on fewer samples than the expected housing price poll.
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December 15, 2007 at 2:02 PM #118113
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantOther random polls :
Some people expect a recession …
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2060490120071121Many don’t like George Bush …
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1624620720071017And these results were based on fewer samples than the expected housing price poll.
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December 15, 2007 at 2:02 PM #118135
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantOther random polls :
Some people expect a recession …
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2060490120071121Many don’t like George Bush …
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1624620720071017And these results were based on fewer samples than the expected housing price poll.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM #118035
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM #118067
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM #118107
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:59 PM #118130
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantit’s complety random
I agree it’s a small sample and already too much time has been spent on the subject.
But, if it were completely random wouldn’t that make it more valid. Probability & Statistics 101, anyone ?
P.S. – The poll was done by the same folks who perform the Consumer Sentiment Survey. I’m sure after 60 years they understand something about sampling, survey bias and estimation.
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December 15, 2007 at 1:35 PM #118020
HLS
ParticipantViewing this “poll” as anything is silly.
“The survey found 21 percent of the 1,168 surveyed see a fall in prices, with those heavily concentrated in areas that have already seen values decline”
Why do you assume it’s nationwide ? The only fact is 1168 people. They could have been real estate agents.
They could have been people who were called during dinner.I cannot understand why anybody would even waste their time. Without demographics, it’s complety random, with nothing to indicate that it is a “nationwide” poll.
If it had a positive spin, it’s what I would expect from the NAR. It’s less useful than a press release that cites the median.
-
December 15, 2007 at 1:35 PM #118051
HLS
ParticipantViewing this “poll” as anything is silly.
“The survey found 21 percent of the 1,168 surveyed see a fall in prices, with those heavily concentrated in areas that have already seen values decline”
Why do you assume it’s nationwide ? The only fact is 1168 people. They could have been real estate agents.
They could have been people who were called during dinner.I cannot understand why anybody would even waste their time. Without demographics, it’s complety random, with nothing to indicate that it is a “nationwide” poll.
If it had a positive spin, it’s what I would expect from the NAR. It’s less useful than a press release that cites the median.
-
December 15, 2007 at 1:35 PM #118092
HLS
ParticipantViewing this “poll” as anything is silly.
“The survey found 21 percent of the 1,168 surveyed see a fall in prices, with those heavily concentrated in areas that have already seen values decline”
Why do you assume it’s nationwide ? The only fact is 1168 people. They could have been real estate agents.
They could have been people who were called during dinner.I cannot understand why anybody would even waste their time. Without demographics, it’s complety random, with nothing to indicate that it is a “nationwide” poll.
If it had a positive spin, it’s what I would expect from the NAR. It’s less useful than a press release that cites the median.
-
December 15, 2007 at 1:35 PM #118115
HLS
ParticipantViewing this “poll” as anything is silly.
“The survey found 21 percent of the 1,168 surveyed see a fall in prices, with those heavily concentrated in areas that have already seen values decline”
Why do you assume it’s nationwide ? The only fact is 1168 people. They could have been real estate agents.
They could have been people who were called during dinner.I cannot understand why anybody would even waste their time. Without demographics, it’s complety random, with nothing to indicate that it is a “nationwide” poll.
If it had a positive spin, it’s what I would expect from the NAR. It’s less useful than a press release that cites the median.
-
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM #118000
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
-
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM #118032
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
-
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM #118073
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
-
December 15, 2007 at 12:36 PM #118094
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t view this poll result as being over-optimistic. In fact it is as bearish a poll as I’ve read about in about a decade.
Remember, this is a nationwide poll, not Southern California or San Diego.
If you read the article it says that 21% expect declines. ALso, to quote … The 60 percent that expect higher prices see a mean increase of just 2.9 percent, which is down from 3.9 percent six months ago and fails to keep pace with inflation.
So, nationwide you have an expectation by homeowners that their houses will increase less than inflation.
Last time I checked this was defined as a decline in the real price of a home.Remember the polls that indicated people expected 15% increases ?
I think this poll indicates that there is a broad swath of the country (20%) girding for outright nominal price declines, and at least 80% expect a real decline in price.
How is this optimistic ?
Sentiment has clearly changed.
-
December 15, 2007 at 12:15 PM #117995
HLS
ParticipantYa gotta love surveys like this…
1168 people surveyed..Was it a large elementary school ?
How can they event print something like this and infer that there is any accuracy ?
There are no demographics at all.They could have asked people in a strong area OR a bubble area, and get different responses.
My survey says that 9 out of 10 surveys are silly.
“The survey is the latest evidence that the U.S. housing slump, now in its third year, will linger longer than expected”
HUH ?? Longer than WHO expected ? How long will it be ?
I expect it to last 5 years. -
December 15, 2007 at 12:15 PM #118028
HLS
ParticipantYa gotta love surveys like this…
1168 people surveyed..Was it a large elementary school ?
How can they event print something like this and infer that there is any accuracy ?
There are no demographics at all.They could have asked people in a strong area OR a bubble area, and get different responses.
My survey says that 9 out of 10 surveys are silly.
“The survey is the latest evidence that the U.S. housing slump, now in its third year, will linger longer than expected”
HUH ?? Longer than WHO expected ? How long will it be ?
I expect it to last 5 years. -
December 15, 2007 at 12:15 PM #118068
HLS
ParticipantYa gotta love surveys like this…
1168 people surveyed..Was it a large elementary school ?
How can they event print something like this and infer that there is any accuracy ?
There are no demographics at all.They could have asked people in a strong area OR a bubble area, and get different responses.
My survey says that 9 out of 10 surveys are silly.
“The survey is the latest evidence that the U.S. housing slump, now in its third year, will linger longer than expected”
HUH ?? Longer than WHO expected ? How long will it be ?
I expect it to last 5 years. -
December 15, 2007 at 12:15 PM #118089
HLS
ParticipantYa gotta love surveys like this…
1168 people surveyed..Was it a large elementary school ?
How can they event print something like this and infer that there is any accuracy ?
There are no demographics at all.They could have asked people in a strong area OR a bubble area, and get different responses.
My survey says that 9 out of 10 surveys are silly.
“The survey is the latest evidence that the U.S. housing slump, now in its third year, will linger longer than expected”
HUH ?? Longer than WHO expected ? How long will it be ?
I expect it to last 5 years.
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December 15, 2007 at 11:59 AM #117970
JWM in SD
Participant“Proof that seller sentiment has still not changed a lot which is why prices are still staying flat.”
Well, 12 months ago that % would have been a lot higher than 60% no? I’d say progress has been made.
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December 15, 2007 at 11:59 AM #118002
JWM in SD
Participant“Proof that seller sentiment has still not changed a lot which is why prices are still staying flat.”
Well, 12 months ago that % would have been a lot higher than 60% no? I’d say progress has been made.
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December 15, 2007 at 11:59 AM #118043
JWM in SD
Participant“Proof that seller sentiment has still not changed a lot which is why prices are still staying flat.”
Well, 12 months ago that % would have been a lot higher than 60% no? I’d say progress has been made.
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December 15, 2007 at 11:59 AM #118065
JWM in SD
Participant“Proof that seller sentiment has still not changed a lot which is why prices are still staying flat.”
Well, 12 months ago that % would have been a lot higher than 60% no? I’d say progress has been made.
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December 15, 2007 at 11:03 AM #117940
SD Realtor
ParticipantRecall the post that RO made not long ago that had the parabolic graph? Denial is still a very ugly…yet real thing.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 11:03 AM #117973
SD Realtor
ParticipantRecall the post that RO made not long ago that had the parabolic graph? Denial is still a very ugly…yet real thing.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 11:03 AM #118014
SD Realtor
ParticipantRecall the post that RO made not long ago that had the parabolic graph? Denial is still a very ugly…yet real thing.
SD Realtor
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December 15, 2007 at 11:03 AM #118034
SD Realtor
ParticipantRecall the post that RO made not long ago that had the parabolic graph? Denial is still a very ugly…yet real thing.
SD Realtor
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