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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=BGinRB][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. [/quote]
Rich’s recent graph shows that the ratio you quoted is nearing the top of the previous bubble. We are not even below the pre-2002 maximum.
[/quote]You are mistaken. Clearly the monthly housing costs relative to rent and incomes are below 30-year averages as shown in Rich’s recent charts.
ParticipantI don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.
However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.
Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?
Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.
Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?
That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.
Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.ParticipantI don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.
However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.
Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?
Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.
Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?
That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.
Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.ParticipantI don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.
However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.
Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?
Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.
Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?
That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.
Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.ParticipantI don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.
However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.
Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?
Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.
Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?
That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.
Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.ParticipantI don’t really believe we are at the bottom, my previous response was tongue in cheek. But, my prediction that we are in an unsustainable decline is serious.
However, the questions posed above indicate several misconceptions of what a market bottom would look like.
Is the median home price now about 3 to 5 times median income?
Nearly so and Yes, depending on county …
Based on July numbers …
San Diego Single-family house median is 5.7x median family income. Condos are 3.7x household median family income.
Monthly payments relative to rents and incomes are below 30-year averages.
Riverside county median is about 3.5X median family income.
San Bernardino is 3.7x median family income
LA and OC are still 6-7x.By the time this Fall and Winter numbers are recorded, we may be in range.
Has the inventory come down to about 5000 houses?
That would be a sign of a peak not a bottom.
Has the median home price not dropped YOY?
A necessary condition of a market bottom is that the YOY price has dropped. If this is not true then we are past the bottom.Is getting a home loan now easier?
I would guess that home loans will be most difficult to get at the bottom. Lenders look in the rear-view mirror when tightening or loosening credit standards. Credit was loosest at the top.ParticipantI’m also sort of calling a bottom now.
What I’m officially saying is that the current downward trend is an unsustainable real estate vacuum. Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. Eventually this will correct itself and we will revert to the norm. I may be early, so I’ll probably keep doing this bottom calling business once every month or so for the next 1 -2 years, so that I can claim to be the first one to call the bottom. (I call this the Schiff method).ParticipantI’m also sort of calling a bottom now.
What I’m officially saying is that the current downward trend is an unsustainable real estate vacuum. Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. Eventually this will correct itself and we will revert to the norm. I may be early, so I’ll probably keep doing this bottom calling business once every month or so for the next 1 -2 years, so that I can claim to be the first one to call the bottom. (I call this the Schiff method).ParticipantI’m also sort of calling a bottom now.
What I’m officially saying is that the current downward trend is an unsustainable real estate vacuum. Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. Eventually this will correct itself and we will revert to the norm. I may be early, so I’ll probably keep doing this bottom calling business once every month or so for the next 1 -2 years, so that I can claim to be the first one to call the bottom. (I call this the Schiff method).ParticipantI’m also sort of calling a bottom now.
What I’m officially saying is that the current downward trend is an unsustainable real estate vacuum. Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. Eventually this will correct itself and we will revert to the norm. I may be early, so I’ll probably keep doing this bottom calling business once every month or so for the next 1 -2 years, so that I can claim to be the first one to call the bottom. (I call this the Schiff method).ParticipantI’m also sort of calling a bottom now.
What I’m officially saying is that the current downward trend is an unsustainable real estate vacuum. Based on fundamentals we are below the long-term average in terms of monthly housing costs relative to rents and incomes. Eventually this will correct itself and we will revert to the norm. I may be early, so I’ll probably keep doing this bottom calling business once every month or so for the next 1 -2 years, so that I can claim to be the first one to call the bottom. (I call this the Schiff method).ParticipantThanks Stan.
So I’m interpreting this to mean that it’s more like
the business cycle at play [1] than a nutjob conspiracy theory [2].[1] The US is starting to suck less than the rest of the world on a relative basis due to phasing of the business cycle.
[2]A conspiratorial market manipulated by the elite in which we are the outsiders and insiders control the game.
ParticipantThanks Stan.
So I’m interpreting this to mean that it’s more like
the business cycle at play [1] than a nutjob conspiracy theory [2].[1] The US is starting to suck less than the rest of the world on a relative basis due to phasing of the business cycle.
[2]A conspiratorial market manipulated by the elite in which we are the outsiders and insiders control the game.
ParticipantThanks Stan.
So I’m interpreting this to mean that it’s more like
the business cycle at play [1] than a nutjob conspiracy theory [2].[1] The US is starting to suck less than the rest of the world on a relative basis due to phasing of the business cycle.
[2]A conspiratorial market manipulated by the elite in which we are the outsiders and insiders control the game.
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