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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=nostradamus]No, you should wait until the cost of owning is equal to or less than the cost of renting. So rents have to rise or home prices have to fall.
I bought in 1998.[/quote]
This is a great strategy, and offers good downside protection. The only problem is there have been at most about 4 or 5 years in the past 30 years where you could do this in San Diego.
We are likely entering (or are already in, depending on location) another one of these windows. The problem is that one also has to be ready from a personal standpoint (career, family, financial situation).
I would suggest that one should buy when they can afford to, while avoiding times when the market is extremely overvalued (e.g. 2003-2006 or 07) in relation to rents.
My rule of thumb would be when the cost to own is equal to rent plus a modest mid-sized sedan car payment (e.g. $300-400/mo or so). It is easy to forego a new car as the price to own versus rent.
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=Russell]I really don’t see any possible way to see “housing bears have lost”, bills passing or no bills passing. I just don’t get that. Maybe it is just a problem of semantics. Perhaps, what is meant is that, “housing bears lose this round”?
[/quote]
I agree. The housing bears have already won. Although perhaps the housing uber-uber bears will have to revise their outlook… a little bit. The govt can’t keep prices from reverting to the mean… but it can have an impact on how far prices over-correct.
[/quote]davelj, you nailed it. I find it funny that in an environment where the median price has dropped by 40% that anyone would think that bears have lost.
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=Russell]I really don’t see any possible way to see “housing bears have lost”, bills passing or no bills passing. I just don’t get that. Maybe it is just a problem of semantics. Perhaps, what is meant is that, “housing bears lose this round”?
[/quote]
I agree. The housing bears have already won. Although perhaps the housing uber-uber bears will have to revise their outlook… a little bit. The govt can’t keep prices from reverting to the mean… but it can have an impact on how far prices over-correct.
[/quote]davelj, you nailed it. I find it funny that in an environment where the median price has dropped by 40% that anyone would think that bears have lost.
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=Russell]I really don’t see any possible way to see “housing bears have lost”, bills passing or no bills passing. I just don’t get that. Maybe it is just a problem of semantics. Perhaps, what is meant is that, “housing bears lose this round”?
[/quote]
I agree. The housing bears have already won. Although perhaps the housing uber-uber bears will have to revise their outlook… a little bit. The govt can’t keep prices from reverting to the mean… but it can have an impact on how far prices over-correct.
[/quote]davelj, you nailed it. I find it funny that in an environment where the median price has dropped by 40% that anyone would think that bears have lost.
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=Russell]I really don’t see any possible way to see “housing bears have lost”, bills passing or no bills passing. I just don’t get that. Maybe it is just a problem of semantics. Perhaps, what is meant is that, “housing bears lose this round”?
[/quote]
I agree. The housing bears have already won. Although perhaps the housing uber-uber bears will have to revise their outlook… a little bit. The govt can’t keep prices from reverting to the mean… but it can have an impact on how far prices over-correct.
[/quote]davelj, you nailed it. I find it funny that in an environment where the median price has dropped by 40% that anyone would think that bears have lost.
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=Russell]I really don’t see any possible way to see “housing bears have lost”, bills passing or no bills passing. I just don’t get that. Maybe it is just a problem of semantics. Perhaps, what is meant is that, “housing bears lose this round”?
[/quote]
I agree. The housing bears have already won. Although perhaps the housing uber-uber bears will have to revise their outlook… a little bit. The govt can’t keep prices from reverting to the mean… but it can have an impact on how far prices over-correct.
[/quote]davelj, you nailed it. I find it funny that in an environment where the median price has dropped by 40% that anyone would think that bears have lost.
Participant[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]You should always have your exit strategy before any investment or trade. This stops you from getting into an emotional decision once in an investment.
Whatever your original exit strategy was should be followed, if you did not have one you should exit now and feel lucky that an investment that was spot on but had no exit plan made a gain.
I tell people who are learning to trade this all the time and it never sinks in until they get into this dilemma.[/quote]
Good advice.
This is an multi-year (intermediate-term) approach, based on fundamentals. Not really a trade in days to months regime where you operate (rather successfully, I might add). So I consider this more of a Robert-Campbell or Rich Toscano-style style trend tracking.
My exit strategy is essentially to stick with my approach until the fundamentals and the market tell me to move on. We may be approaching that point so I think the easy money has been made. Probably time to move on.Participant[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]You should always have your exit strategy before any investment or trade. This stops you from getting into an emotional decision once in an investment.
Whatever your original exit strategy was should be followed, if you did not have one you should exit now and feel lucky that an investment that was spot on but had no exit plan made a gain.
I tell people who are learning to trade this all the time and it never sinks in until they get into this dilemma.[/quote]
Good advice.
This is an multi-year (intermediate-term) approach, based on fundamentals. Not really a trade in days to months regime where you operate (rather successfully, I might add). So I consider this more of a Robert-Campbell or Rich Toscano-style style trend tracking.
My exit strategy is essentially to stick with my approach until the fundamentals and the market tell me to move on. We may be approaching that point so I think the easy money has been made. Probably time to move on.Participant[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]You should always have your exit strategy before any investment or trade. This stops you from getting into an emotional decision once in an investment.
Whatever your original exit strategy was should be followed, if you did not have one you should exit now and feel lucky that an investment that was spot on but had no exit plan made a gain.
I tell people who are learning to trade this all the time and it never sinks in until they get into this dilemma.[/quote]
Good advice.
This is an multi-year (intermediate-term) approach, based on fundamentals. Not really a trade in days to months regime where you operate (rather successfully, I might add). So I consider this more of a Robert-Campbell or Rich Toscano-style style trend tracking.
My exit strategy is essentially to stick with my approach until the fundamentals and the market tell me to move on. We may be approaching that point so I think the easy money has been made. Probably time to move on.Participant[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]You should always have your exit strategy before any investment or trade. This stops you from getting into an emotional decision once in an investment.
Whatever your original exit strategy was should be followed, if you did not have one you should exit now and feel lucky that an investment that was spot on but had no exit plan made a gain.
I tell people who are learning to trade this all the time and it never sinks in until they get into this dilemma.[/quote]
Good advice.
This is an multi-year (intermediate-term) approach, based on fundamentals. Not really a trade in days to months regime where you operate (rather successfully, I might add). So I consider this more of a Robert-Campbell or Rich Toscano-style style trend tracking.
My exit strategy is essentially to stick with my approach until the fundamentals and the market tell me to move on. We may be approaching that point so I think the easy money has been made. Probably time to move on.Participant[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]You should always have your exit strategy before any investment or trade. This stops you from getting into an emotional decision once in an investment.
Whatever your original exit strategy was should be followed, if you did not have one you should exit now and feel lucky that an investment that was spot on but had no exit plan made a gain.
I tell people who are learning to trade this all the time and it never sinks in until they get into this dilemma.[/quote]
Good advice.
This is an multi-year (intermediate-term) approach, based on fundamentals. Not really a trade in days to months regime where you operate (rather successfully, I might add). So I consider this more of a Robert-Campbell or Rich Toscano-style style trend tracking.
My exit strategy is essentially to stick with my approach until the fundamentals and the market tell me to move on. We may be approaching that point so I think the easy money has been made. Probably time to move on.May 8, 2009 at 7:39 AM in reply to: Visalia, California Real Estate Broker Predicts a 30% Increase in Home Prices. #394884Participant[quote=zk]You need our opinion as to the accuracy of that prediction?
I’ve got a used car that I predict will appreciate 30% in value by next year. Wanna buy it?
[/quote]If that used car is a clunker currently worth less than $1000, it WILL increase in value by at least 30% over the next 6 months if the cash for clunkers passes.
May 8, 2009 at 7:39 AM in reply to: Visalia, California Real Estate Broker Predicts a 30% Increase in Home Prices. #395136Participant[quote=zk]You need our opinion as to the accuracy of that prediction?
I’ve got a used car that I predict will appreciate 30% in value by next year. Wanna buy it?
[/quote]If that used car is a clunker currently worth less than $1000, it WILL increase in value by at least 30% over the next 6 months if the cash for clunkers passes.
May 8, 2009 at 7:39 AM in reply to: Visalia, California Real Estate Broker Predicts a 30% Increase in Home Prices. #395355Participant[quote=zk]You need our opinion as to the accuracy of that prediction?
I’ve got a used car that I predict will appreciate 30% in value by next year. Wanna buy it?
[/quote]If that used car is a clunker currently worth less than $1000, it WILL increase in value by at least 30% over the next 6 months if the cash for clunkers passes.
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