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Ex-SD
ParticipantMy best friend is a mortgage broker in San Diego. He has had a flood of people who have been trying to re-fi for the last six months………but 99% of the loans cannot get an appraisal so his business is totally in the tank. The potential borrowers have all had ARM’s and bought with 100% down loans. He is telling me that the appraisers that he has been working with are not about to appraise any home, anywhere near the value that someone bought at a couple of years ago.
ParticipantBefore GWB was elected the first time, I used to get into a lot of arguments (friendly types) with friends and acquaintances who said that GWB was really dumb. My rationale was that the man had an MBA from an ivy league university and had been the governor of Texas so how he couldn’t possibly be an idiot……………….and so, I voted for him.
After one term, I saw that I was wrong and that the people who said he was dumb, in fact, were correct. Now, that’s not to say that any of the idiots who were running against him both times were any brighter than Bush but this whole housing debacle has truly shown just what an economic genius that he is NOT. By the time all of the greedy fools in Congress get through destroying the value of the dollar and the U.S. economy, the USA will be in such pitiful shape that it will take 10-20 years of proper management from some very disciplined, extremely smart politicians (if there is such a thing as a smart politician) just to get the country back to 1999 value level. We are watching a disaster in the making. NO, not the housing problem but the fixes that the politicians are going to implement in an attempt to fix it. God help us all.ParticipantJWM & HLS……………IMHO, I think you two are about as “right, as right can be”. Bravo!
ParticipantIt always takes “X” length of time for reality to set in. I told my wife several months ago that I didn’t think that there would be any significant drops in the SFR segment of the San Diego housing market until the end of next summer. My reasoning is that by then, reality will have truly set in and panic will be the next phase. Right now, anyone who doesn’t truly have to sell is not going to significantly drop their price. By the end of next summer, when those who have to sell due to job transfers, job loss, divorce, or loss of income due to illness are going to really start feeling the squeeze. Add to this equation the REO’s that will be at a staggering number………………then, we’ll see some real price cutting in the single family home segment of the market in SoCal. Of course, we already have homes dropping like dead birds in Temecula and other outlying places but these areas were a whole different can of worms in the first place. I don’t think that this whole mess will hit the bottom until late 2011 or well into 2012 at the earliest due to the large amount of inventory that will be on the market and lack of qualified buyers that will be able to qualify for a loan.
Just my two cents.ParticipantI’m not convinced that the poster using Alan Gin’s name was actually Alan Gin. It could have been anyone who was a defender of Alan Gin who didn’t like what was being said and registered using his name.
September 19, 2007 at 1:21 PM in reply to: House Approves Plan to Help Struggling Homeowners Avoid Foreclosure #85209ParticipantHLS: LOL!
It’s going to take a 50% hit in the SD housing market to entice me to move back. I’m liking it here more & more with each passing month.It’s fascinating to watch this huge firestorm and look at the politicians scurrying to the money well with their buckets in an attempt to put it out. In a few months, they will figure out that there’s really nothing they can do but let it burn itself out…………………..then the Fed will start raising rates because we’ll be in a horrible recession (or depression). It’s not going to be pretty.
September 19, 2007 at 12:34 PM in reply to: House Approves Plan to Help Struggling Homeowners Avoid Foreclosure #85201ParticipantHLS: BINGO!!!!
With an election year approaching, these stupid politicians are simply pandering for votes and as usual………..they’re going to sell out the American public. They don’t care how much damage they do because they’ll get theirs back with kick-backs and their usual big increase in salary & benefits that they always vote for themselves. You are 100% correct that the housing market simply needs to correct itself to get things in proper alignment. The politicians are only going to do more damage to the overall economy with this foolishness.September 18, 2007 at 10:51 AM in reply to: Hovnanian claims 2100 sales during 3-day sales event #84980ParticipantTwo big facts that are missing from the sales numbers are:
1. How many homes were sold in each state that they do business?
2. What was the total dollar amount of sales per state?I would really like to know how many homes and $$$ were generated from CA sales.
Since they build homes in many states and areas that are not bubble markets that did not have the massive, run-up in prices like CA.
This means that the homes that they sell in non-bubble markets have to be priced commensurate (or better) with other homes that are for sale in their respective markets or they won’t sell. In South Carolina, a median priced home relates directly to median income. If it didn’t, anyone attempting to sell a home would be wasting their time. This basic fundamental needs to return to the CA housing market.ParticipantAs a general rule, people in the southern states (excluding Florida) do not easily get caught up with the hype that prevailed with the run-up in prices in CA. They are much more skeptical than the average Californian and not as prone to sell their home & move up the property ladder every few years. It’s a different mindset. I was born & reared in South Carolina but moved to San Diego for 30 years. When we moved back to SC a couple of years ago, it didn’t take long before I was reminded of the differences between the two cultures. I have a lot of relatives and old friends here that I had not seen in many years and I have discovered that 95%+ of them are still living in the same homes that they were living in when I left 30 years ago. It has nothing to do with money: it’s a matter of not trying to keep up with the Jones’.
If a local R.E. agent attempted to get people involved in a bidding war on a home, they would be met with the biggest ho-hum they had ever encountered and all the interested parties would be likely to just walk away, leaving the seller with no offers.ParticipantWaterboy wrote: “I’ve got one foot out the door after 6 years here. Thinking about Charlotte, NC area”
I left SD a couple of years ago and now live 90 miles south/southwest
of Charlotte in the Greenville, SC area. Take a look at the Greenville/Spartanburg area before you make a hard decision. The weather here is a little better than Charlotte because we’re very close to the mountains. It does get hot during July & August but the majority of the year offers very pleasant weather. I don’t work anymore but there is a healthy, vibrant economy. Greenville/Spartanburg and Charlotte did not have the ridiculous run-up in house prices that SD and the other bubble markets had so prices are pretty stable. You can buy an exceptionally nice home here for $225k-up and not have a neighbor living 10 feet away.ParticipantThere must be some misinformation concerning the prior sale. With that view and size of the home, that IS a $6 million dollar home in La Jolla.
September 13, 2007 at 2:48 PM in reply to: “We do not expect the housing slump to bottom out until late next year”. #84467ParticipantInteresting read. He says that they support Congress raising the $417k threshold. He also mentions liar loans and the need to return to proper documentation of loans and fundamentals. But his statement about “We do not expect the housing slump to bottom out until late next year” sounds like it came right out of the mouth of a real estate lobbyist or a politician. Either they know that this is going to be a lot worse than they’re letting on and they’re attempting to keep the market calm or they’re just dumb as doorknobs. Either way, the slide will accelerate down for at least three more years (if not more) until it hits the true bottom.
Participant“Or that it is a huge fricken mountain on one side, we’ve reached the peak, and now there’s going to be another mountainside going down on the other?”
If history repeats itself, prices are going back to 1994-1995 levels.
ParticipantSchizo lives in an imaginary world where facts mean nothing and his inane ramblings just keep tumbling out of his mouth like the prices that are falling all around him. I’ve been around the horn with him before and it’s just a big waste of time. I’m convinced that he’s just trolling in an attempt to irritate anyone who will take the bait. If enough people ignore him, maybe he will slink back into his hole.
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