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Eugene
ParticipantI wouldn’t call $250/sf in Mira Mesa extraordinary pricing.
8969 Libra Dr: 430k for 2255 sf ($191/sf)
9051 Penticton Way: 428k for 2138 sf ($200/sf)Now 250/sf in University City, that would be nice to see.
Participant…
In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.
Participant…
In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.
Participant…
In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.
Participant…
In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.
Participant…
In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.
ParticipantThe original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”
In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)
Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)
I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.
ParticipantThe original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”
In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)
Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)
I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.
ParticipantThe original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”
In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)
Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)
I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.
ParticipantThe original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”
In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)
Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)
I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.
ParticipantThe original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”
In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)
Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)
I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.
ParticipantAlso most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.
You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.
Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.
In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.
ParticipantAlso most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.
You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.
Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.
In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.
ParticipantAlso most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.
You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.
Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.
In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.
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