[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Author]

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