4s ranch builder price advice

[randy]

Guys,
Need a little advice here. I am new to the area..moving from out of state. I went to few places with my realtor and liked a house in 4S ranch. It is ~3500 sq ft and the builder is offering that for ~$670K. Based on my research, this is the level prices were in early 2003 (pre-bubble) for a similar sized home.

The big difference is on the Mello-roos. 2002/2003 buyers used to pay ~$2K/year while we are now forced to pay ~$5K/year.

Do you think this is a deal worth pursuing assuming that I like the house? Can Mello-roos go down in the future? What is the risk of home prices going down even further in the future. It is currently @$190/sqft Vs Market Avg of ~$230/sqft.

Am I better off waiting for the storm to cool??

I can really use some advice here.

Thanks.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

If you’re not scared that it could be had for $470K in two years, by all means go ahead and buy it!

Mello-roos will only be with you for 30-40 years…no worries there, either.

One last thing…this bubble began long before 2003, my friend…it was on Wall Street’s drawing board in early 2000.

[flyer]

What development in 4S are you looking at? Some friends recently bought in Silhouette, and we’ve heard they are selling quite well.
Pienza will be sold out by April.

If you NEED a home in the area soon, it sounds like a good price, if not, you might want to wait.
Either way, Mello-Roos will not be going away.

Also might want to consider what interest rates will be in the next few years. Since my house is paid off, I’m hoping for 10% Jumbo CD’s in the very near future.

[Eugene]

At today’s jumbo rates 5K/year mello roos effectively increases the purchase price by ~70K.

What model/neighborhood is it, and what’s the official listing price?

[Eugene]

At today’s jumbo rates 5K/year mello roos effectively increases the purchase price by ~70K.

What model/neighborhood is it, and what’s the official listing price?

[Eugene]

At today’s jumbo rates 5K/year mello roos effectively increases the purchase price by ~70K.

What model/neighborhood is it, and what’s the official listing price?

[Eugene]

At today’s jumbo rates 5K/year mello roos effectively increases the purchase price by ~70K.

What model/neighborhood is it, and what’s the official listing price?

[Eugene]

At today’s jumbo rates 5K/year mello roos effectively increases the purchase price by ~70K.

What model/neighborhood is it, and what’s the official listing price?

[randy]

This house is a builder phase closeout at Maybeck. This model start at $740K. someone fell off escrow and thus, I can get this cheaper.

[flyer]

The price sounds good for Maybeck, based upon their previous price points–if you NEED to buy now. Just be aware that some people find that, over time, they really don’t like an alley-loaded home. That’s why my friends chose a home with a front-loaded garage.

With Maybeck, you have no backyard, and they felt the alley would become a nightmare of noise, with kid’s playing, people backing out of their garages–right near your bedrooms–not to mention the echo-chamber effect an alley can have, etc., etc.

Just some things to consider–wish you the best!

[Eugene]

If you decide to buy, check this out

https://www.dcu.org/mortgage_he/index.html

Jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage up to 90% LTV – 5.125% with 2 points, 5.625% with no points

All in all you’re looking at something like $4000/month (honest fixed mortgage with 20% down)

[patientlywaiting]

2003 is not pre-bubble.
Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices.

At least wait and buy a foreclosure.

[yooklid]

5K Mello Roos? thats 4x my rent and I live in SF.

[yooklid]

5K Mello Roos? thats 4x my rent and I live in SF.

[yooklid]

5K Mello Roos? thats 4x my rent and I live in SF.

[yooklid]

5K Mello Roos? thats 4x my rent and I live in SF.

[yooklid]

5K Mello Roos? thats 4x my rent and I live in SF.

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[Eugene]

for $470K in two years

2003 is not pre-bubble. Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=52524071

This guy committed to paying something like $4500/month for a comparable house in 4S Ranch … in 2000.

(He probably got lucky and brought his payment down $1000/month by refinancing in 2003, but that’s beside the point)

[patientlywaiting]

2003 is not pre-bubble.
Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices.

At least wait and buy a foreclosure.

[patientlywaiting]

2003 is not pre-bubble.
Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices.

At least wait and buy a foreclosure.

[patientlywaiting]

2003 is not pre-bubble.
Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices.

At least wait and buy a foreclosure.

[patientlywaiting]

2003 is not pre-bubble.
Wait for 2001 of better yet, 2000 prices.

At least wait and buy a foreclosure.

[Eugene]

If you decide to buy, check this out

https://www.dcu.org/mortgage_he/index.html

Jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage up to 90% LTV – 5.125% with 2 points, 5.625% with no points

All in all you’re looking at something like $4000/month (honest fixed mortgage with 20% down)

[Eugene]

If you decide to buy, check this out

https://www.dcu.org/mortgage_he/index.html

Jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage up to 90% LTV – 5.125% with 2 points, 5.625% with no points

All in all you’re looking at something like $4000/month (honest fixed mortgage with 20% down)

[Eugene]

If you decide to buy, check this out

https://www.dcu.org/mortgage_he/index.html

Jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage up to 90% LTV – 5.125% with 2 points, 5.625% with no points

All in all you’re looking at something like $4000/month (honest fixed mortgage with 20% down)

[Eugene]

If you decide to buy, check this out

https://www.dcu.org/mortgage_he/index.html

Jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage up to 90% LTV – 5.125% with 2 points, 5.625% with no points

All in all you’re looking at something like $4000/month (honest fixed mortgage with 20% down)

[flyer]

The price sounds good for Maybeck, based upon their previous price points–if you NEED to buy now. Just be aware that some people find that, over time, they really don’t like an alley-loaded home. That’s why my friends chose a home with a front-loaded garage.

With Maybeck, you have no backyard, and they felt the alley would become a nightmare of noise, with kid’s playing, people backing out of their garages–right near your bedrooms–not to mention the echo-chamber effect an alley can have, etc., etc.

Just some things to consider–wish you the best!

[flyer]

The price sounds good for Maybeck, based upon their previous price points–if you NEED to buy now. Just be aware that some people find that, over time, they really don’t like an alley-loaded home. That’s why my friends chose a home with a front-loaded garage.

With Maybeck, you have no backyard, and they felt the alley would become a nightmare of noise, with kid’s playing, people backing out of their garages–right near your bedrooms–not to mention the echo-chamber effect an alley can have, etc., etc.

Just some things to consider–wish you the best!

[flyer]

The price sounds good for Maybeck, based upon their previous price points–if you NEED to buy now. Just be aware that some people find that, over time, they really don’t like an alley-loaded home. That’s why my friends chose a home with a front-loaded garage.

With Maybeck, you have no backyard, and they felt the alley would become a nightmare of noise, with kid’s playing, people backing out of their garages–right near your bedrooms–not to mention the echo-chamber effect an alley can have, etc., etc.

Just some things to consider–wish you the best!

[flyer]

The price sounds good for Maybeck, based upon their previous price points–if you NEED to buy now. Just be aware that some people find that, over time, they really don’t like an alley-loaded home. That’s why my friends chose a home with a front-loaded garage.

With Maybeck, you have no backyard, and they felt the alley would become a nightmare of noise, with kid’s playing, people backing out of their garages–right near your bedrooms–not to mention the echo-chamber effect an alley can have, etc., etc.

Just some things to consider–wish you the best!

[randy]

This house is a builder phase closeout at Maybeck. This model start at $740K. someone fell off escrow and thus, I can get this cheaper.

[randy]

This house is a builder phase closeout at Maybeck. This model start at $740K. someone fell off escrow and thus, I can get this cheaper.

[randy]

This house is a builder phase closeout at Maybeck. This model start at $740K. someone fell off escrow and thus, I can get this cheaper.

[randy]

This house is a builder phase closeout at Maybeck. This model start at $740K. someone fell off escrow and thus, I can get this cheaper.

[flyer]

What development in 4S are you looking at? Some friends recently bought in Silhouette, and we’ve heard they are selling quite well.
Pienza will be sold out by April.

If you NEED a home in the area soon, it sounds like a good price, if not, you might want to wait.
Either way, Mello-Roos will not be going away.

Also might want to consider what interest rates will be in the next few years. Since my house is paid off, I’m hoping for 10% Jumbo CD’s in the very near future.

[flyer]

What development in 4S are you looking at? Some friends recently bought in Silhouette, and we’ve heard they are selling quite well.
Pienza will be sold out by April.

If you NEED a home in the area soon, it sounds like a good price, if not, you might want to wait.
Either way, Mello-Roos will not be going away.

Also might want to consider what interest rates will be in the next few years. Since my house is paid off, I’m hoping for 10% Jumbo CD’s in the very near future.

[flyer]

What development in 4S are you looking at? Some friends recently bought in Silhouette, and we’ve heard they are selling quite well.
Pienza will be sold out by April.

If you NEED a home in the area soon, it sounds like a good price, if not, you might want to wait.
Either way, Mello-Roos will not be going away.

Also might want to consider what interest rates will be in the next few years. Since my house is paid off, I’m hoping for 10% Jumbo CD’s in the very near future.

[flyer]

What development in 4S are you looking at? Some friends recently bought in Silhouette, and we’ve heard they are selling quite well.
Pienza will be sold out by April.

If you NEED a home in the area soon, it sounds like a good price, if not, you might want to wait.
Either way, Mello-Roos will not be going away.

Also might want to consider what interest rates will be in the next few years. Since my house is paid off, I’m hoping for 10% Jumbo CD’s in the very near future.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

If you’re not scared that it could be had for $470K in two years, by all means go ahead and buy it!

Mello-roos will only be with you for 30-40 years…no worries there, either.

One last thing…this bubble began long before 2003, my friend…it was on Wall Street’s drawing board in early 2000.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

If you’re not scared that it could be had for $470K in two years, by all means go ahead and buy it!

Mello-roos will only be with you for 30-40 years…no worries there, either.

One last thing…this bubble began long before 2003, my friend…it was on Wall Street’s drawing board in early 2000.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

If you’re not scared that it could be had for $470K in two years, by all means go ahead and buy it!

Mello-roos will only be with you for 30-40 years…no worries there, either.

One last thing…this bubble began long before 2003, my friend…it was on Wall Street’s drawing board in early 2000.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

If you’re not scared that it could be had for $470K in two years, by all means go ahead and buy it!

Mello-roos will only be with you for 30-40 years…no worries there, either.

One last thing…this bubble began long before 2003, my friend…it was on Wall Street’s drawing board in early 2000.

[gn]

Randy,

The price offered to you by the builder is quite attractive when compared to the “current market price”. And that’s expected, because builders are under pressure to generate revenues, so they have to offer low prices in order to sell houses.

The problem is: just as your current deal is better than the John Doe who bought last year, another guy who buy this time next year will get a much better deal than what you’re getting. In term of prices, we are nowhere near the bottom.

IMHO, the chances that prices will go down significantly more is 99% (the 1% is for the scenario in which another “credit bubble” appears to pump money into real estate).

[lendingbubblecontinues]

@ esmith–

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation, i.e. when you bought, where and what you bought (generally), and at what price, so that you may help us all begin to see it your way and/or see you as a bubble deny-er through and through.

Otherwise, I’ll just continue to think of you as another “born on third, thinks she hit a triple” type.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

esmith:

too many holes…too little time.

perhaps someone else has the patience and time to set this poster straight…I’ll start:

1) prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year (you claim they may fall if interest go up)

2) $4000 a month (your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point) will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

op: keep your $134,000 down payment (20% of $670,000) for now…you’ll be happy you did

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Arty]

Once it falls down to less than 417k + the 20% down payment, and you do not need a jumbo loan…that will be around 500k in price. You are looking at 3000 a month? Also, what happened if the builders also paid off the MR?

[Arty]

Once it falls down to less than 417k + the 20% down payment, and you do not need a jumbo loan…that will be around 500k in price. You are looking at 3000 a month? Also, what happened if the builders also paid off the MR?

[Arty]

Once it falls down to less than 417k + the 20% down payment, and you do not need a jumbo loan…that will be around 500k in price. You are looking at 3000 a month? Also, what happened if the builders also paid off the MR?

[Arty]

Once it falls down to less than 417k + the 20% down payment, and you do not need a jumbo loan…that will be around 500k in price. You are looking at 3000 a month? Also, what happened if the builders also paid off the MR?

[Arty]

Once it falls down to less than 417k + the 20% down payment, and you do not need a jumbo loan…that will be around 500k in price. You are looking at 3000 a month? Also, what happened if the builders also paid off the MR?

[robyns_song]

Don’t forget the poor quality of these homes for the price. Have you actually examined these homes closely? It seems the new homes aren’t built to last like the ones built just 20 years ago. I wonder how your “investment” will withstand the years–aside from loss in equity.

[robyns_song]

Don’t forget the poor quality of these homes for the price. Have you actually examined these homes closely? It seems the new homes aren’t built to last like the ones built just 20 years ago. I wonder how your “investment” will withstand the years–aside from loss in equity.

[robyns_song]

Don’t forget the poor quality of these homes for the price. Have you actually examined these homes closely? It seems the new homes aren’t built to last like the ones built just 20 years ago. I wonder how your “investment” will withstand the years–aside from loss in equity.

[robyns_song]

Don’t forget the poor quality of these homes for the price. Have you actually examined these homes closely? It seems the new homes aren’t built to last like the ones built just 20 years ago. I wonder how your “investment” will withstand the years–aside from loss in equity.

[robyns_song]

Don’t forget the poor quality of these homes for the price. Have you actually examined these homes closely? It seems the new homes aren’t built to last like the ones built just 20 years ago. I wonder how your “investment” will withstand the years–aside from loss in equity.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I’m moving on from this thread, however, you forgot (at a minimum) the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment. At 4% interest this is an extra $446 monthly on top of your $3980. (an extra 10% a month is more than just a little difference, too…isn’t that amount enough to sink most ARM holders?)

Lastly…the home you linked to isn’t even in 4S Ranch. It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

[an]

If you’re counting all the expenses and taxes, might as well take in the tax deduction as well to be fair.

[an]

If you’re counting all the expenses and taxes, might as well take in the tax deduction as well to be fair.

[an]

If you’re counting all the expenses and taxes, might as well take in the tax deduction as well to be fair.

[an]

If you’re counting all the expenses and taxes, might as well take in the tax deduction as well to be fair.

[an]

If you’re counting all the expenses and taxes, might as well take in the tax deduction as well to be fair.

[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[Aecetia]

If you can afford to wait, why not rent in the area and see if you like it? You might not like the shopping, schools, commute, etc. What is the rush? I think prices will continue to drop and if you read some of the previous postings, you will get a better idea of the trends in the region. Good luck to you.

[sd_bear]

Even if (and a very not plausible if) prices don’t even drop very much in that area from here on out, there certainly isn’t any pressure for increased prices anytime in the near future, so you really have no reason not to wait.

Worst case: Prices remain flat for a few years and you have more money saved and can buy at the same price without having wasted any money on maintenance, etc.

Best (likely) case: Prices drop during the next few years, you have more money saved, and you can buy that house at quite a discount or a bigger house for the same amount of money.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, do you have money to lose if prices continue to drop? By 2003, houses were way overpriced.

[an]

marion, no, I don’t have money to lose. I’m just stating the fundamental. That’s the best I can hope for. Sure, we’ll probably undershoot just like we overshoot. But that’s just icing on the cake. I agree, 2003 price, houses were over priced. I’d reserve the “way” part to 2005, but that’s beside the point. But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. You have to do the calculation for your own specific case, but you also have to consider that renting is losing money as well. If you can buy a house where the mortgage (P+I) = rent, then why wouldn’t you. I hate to sound like a perma-bull but you have to live somewhere. So if the interest you’re paying the bank is less than the rent you’re paying, then what do you have to lose? I’m also using 0% down to do the comparison as well, to keep the calculation as fair as possible.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, almost anything can be rationalized. If you buy a house at 2003 prices and it drops to 2000-2001 prices, you’re still going to lose money. You’ll be paying more money any way you slice it, with a comparable interest rate. An agent at one of the new developments has been bugging me for weeks, trying to get me to qualify for one of his stupid houses. What he always asks is “can you afford xxx payment?” Well, that’s like your argument, it’s not whether you can afford the payment, it’s the price of the house that’s important. The reason, obviously is whatever that payment is (affordable or not) when the price goes lower, that payment goes lower.

Gullible people buy based on that rationalization. It’s like the sleazy car salesmen: “Can you afford xxx payment?” It’s not the payment. You want to get the best deal and the best deal is the overall price. Sure, individual situations have to be taken into account, I’m talking about those who plan on staying in their home for long term with a fixed rate mortgage.

It’s always best to get the lowest price. Not to mention, you’ll pay less on property taxes.

P.S. I softened that to “gullible”.

[an]

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 12:27am.

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

asianautica, I neglected to post that you weren’t making the “payment” argument per se. Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) you’re gonna lose money. Period.

And I believe I did base my argument on comparable interest rates. Again, even then, with a lower price house you save on property taxes.

Reread my post.

[an]

marion, how can you be so sure that price will fall below fundamental? There are many forces at work that will affect the price. I’m sorry but I’m not smart enough to account for all the possibility. Your IF case is just as likely as IF price drops to fundamental level and stay flat for a long time and let inflation make the real price undershoot the fundamental. Or IF the FED keep on dropping interest rate, which might then cause a massive inflation and fundamental catch up to price instead of the other way around. There are infinite ways we will get back to fundamental. But all I know is that when price reach fundamental level, that’s a decent time to buy if you can truly afford the place. Do you see my recurring argument yet? If not, let me restate it again, it’s all about fundamental. Also, did I ever say today price is at fundamental? Fundamental is different for different area. That’s why I say do you own calculation for your specific case.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, yeah, I understand your argument about fundamentals and I think you understand mine too.

In my area and A LOT of areas, with prices falling like they are, I’m not going to advocate for anybody to go out and buy a house TODAY unless they don’t care about losing money. My point is you buy today OR you buy 6 months from now and save 50K. What’s the problem? Yes, this is in my area, this is in a LOT of areas across the country. No, I don’t have a crystal ball but this appears to be the direction housing is heading in.

Yeah, I know about the dangers of dropping interest rates and I don’t think the Fed’s gonna raise them that quickly.

[an]

marion, if price keep on dropping without interest rate rising, then NO, you’re not at fundamental. WHEN you’re at FUNDAMENTAL, you will find plenty of support because people will see that it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. People will then be buying instead of renting. Which mean price won’t fall anymore without interest rate rising.

I don’t have a crystal ball either, but if inflation run wild, I’m pretty sure the FED will have no choice but to raise rates.

[Anonymous]

Ok, then we’re not at fundamental. Are we on the same page now?

[Eugene]

BTW, I’m not saying that San Diego is back to fundamentals. I’m not even saying that 4S Ranch as a whole is back to fundamentals. In fact much of the resale market is still 15-20% or so overpriced, even at todays interest rates. (The cheapest 3500 sq ft resale I see in 4S ranch is listed for 775K)

[Eugene]

BTW, I’m not saying that San Diego is back to fundamentals. I’m not even saying that 4S Ranch as a whole is back to fundamentals. In fact much of the resale market is still 15-20% or so overpriced, even at todays interest rates. (The cheapest 3500 sq ft resale I see in 4S ranch is listed for 775K)

[Eugene]

BTW, I’m not saying that San Diego is back to fundamentals. I’m not even saying that 4S Ranch as a whole is back to fundamentals. In fact much of the resale market is still 15-20% or so overpriced, even at todays interest rates. (The cheapest 3500 sq ft resale I see in 4S ranch is listed for 775K)

[Eugene]

BTW, I’m not saying that San Diego is back to fundamentals. I’m not even saying that 4S Ranch as a whole is back to fundamentals. In fact much of the resale market is still 15-20% or so overpriced, even at todays interest rates. (The cheapest 3500 sq ft resale I see in 4S ranch is listed for 775K)

[Eugene]

BTW, I’m not saying that San Diego is back to fundamentals. I’m not even saying that 4S Ranch as a whole is back to fundamentals. In fact much of the resale market is still 15-20% or so overpriced, even at todays interest rates. (The cheapest 3500 sq ft resale I see in 4S ranch is listed for 775K)

[Anonymous]

Ok, then we’re not at fundamental. Are we on the same page now?

[Anonymous]

Ok, then we’re not at fundamental. Are we on the same page now?

[Anonymous]

Ok, then we’re not at fundamental. Are we on the same page now?

[Anonymous]

Ok, then we’re not at fundamental. Are we on the same page now?

[an]

marion, if price keep on dropping without interest rate rising, then NO, you’re not at fundamental. WHEN you’re at FUNDAMENTAL, you will find plenty of support because people will see that it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. People will then be buying instead of renting. Which mean price won’t fall anymore without interest rate rising.

I don’t have a crystal ball either, but if inflation run wild, I’m pretty sure the FED will have no choice but to raise rates.

[an]

marion, if price keep on dropping without interest rate rising, then NO, you’re not at fundamental. WHEN you’re at FUNDAMENTAL, you will find plenty of support because people will see that it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. People will then be buying instead of renting. Which mean price won’t fall anymore without interest rate rising.

I don’t have a crystal ball either, but if inflation run wild, I’m pretty sure the FED will have no choice but to raise rates.

[an]

marion, if price keep on dropping without interest rate rising, then NO, you’re not at fundamental. WHEN you’re at FUNDAMENTAL, you will find plenty of support because people will see that it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. People will then be buying instead of renting. Which mean price won’t fall anymore without interest rate rising.

I don’t have a crystal ball either, but if inflation run wild, I’m pretty sure the FED will have no choice but to raise rates.

[an]

marion, if price keep on dropping without interest rate rising, then NO, you’re not at fundamental. WHEN you’re at FUNDAMENTAL, you will find plenty of support because people will see that it’s cheaper to buy than to rent. People will then be buying instead of renting. Which mean price won’t fall anymore without interest rate rising.

I don’t have a crystal ball either, but if inflation run wild, I’m pretty sure the FED will have no choice but to raise rates.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, yeah, I understand your argument about fundamentals and I think you understand mine too.

In my area and A LOT of areas, with prices falling like they are, I’m not going to advocate for anybody to go out and buy a house TODAY unless they don’t care about losing money. My point is you buy today OR you buy 6 months from now and save 50K. What’s the problem? Yes, this is in my area, this is in a LOT of areas across the country. No, I don’t have a crystal ball but this appears to be the direction housing is heading in.

Yeah, I know about the dangers of dropping interest rates and I don’t think the Fed’s gonna raise them that quickly.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, yeah, I understand your argument about fundamentals and I think you understand mine too.

In my area and A LOT of areas, with prices falling like they are, I’m not going to advocate for anybody to go out and buy a house TODAY unless they don’t care about losing money. My point is you buy today OR you buy 6 months from now and save 50K. What’s the problem? Yes, this is in my area, this is in a LOT of areas across the country. No, I don’t have a crystal ball but this appears to be the direction housing is heading in.

Yeah, I know about the dangers of dropping interest rates and I don’t think the Fed’s gonna raise them that quickly.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, yeah, I understand your argument about fundamentals and I think you understand mine too.

In my area and A LOT of areas, with prices falling like they are, I’m not going to advocate for anybody to go out and buy a house TODAY unless they don’t care about losing money. My point is you buy today OR you buy 6 months from now and save 50K. What’s the problem? Yes, this is in my area, this is in a LOT of areas across the country. No, I don’t have a crystal ball but this appears to be the direction housing is heading in.

Yeah, I know about the dangers of dropping interest rates and I don’t think the Fed’s gonna raise them that quickly.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, yeah, I understand your argument about fundamentals and I think you understand mine too.

In my area and A LOT of areas, with prices falling like they are, I’m not going to advocate for anybody to go out and buy a house TODAY unless they don’t care about losing money. My point is you buy today OR you buy 6 months from now and save 50K. What’s the problem? Yes, this is in my area, this is in a LOT of areas across the country. No, I don’t have a crystal ball but this appears to be the direction housing is heading in.

Yeah, I know about the dangers of dropping interest rates and I don’t think the Fed’s gonna raise them that quickly.

[an]

marion, how can you be so sure that price will fall below fundamental? There are many forces at work that will affect the price. I’m sorry but I’m not smart enough to account for all the possibility. Your IF case is just as likely as IF price drops to fundamental level and stay flat for a long time and let inflation make the real price undershoot the fundamental. Or IF the FED keep on dropping interest rate, which might then cause a massive inflation and fundamental catch up to price instead of the other way around. There are infinite ways we will get back to fundamental. But all I know is that when price reach fundamental level, that’s a decent time to buy if you can truly afford the place. Do you see my recurring argument yet? If not, let me restate it again, it’s all about fundamental. Also, did I ever say today price is at fundamental? Fundamental is different for different area. That’s why I say do you own calculation for your specific case.

[an]

marion, how can you be so sure that price will fall below fundamental? There are many forces at work that will affect the price. I’m sorry but I’m not smart enough to account for all the possibility. Your IF case is just as likely as IF price drops to fundamental level and stay flat for a long time and let inflation make the real price undershoot the fundamental. Or IF the FED keep on dropping interest rate, which might then cause a massive inflation and fundamental catch up to price instead of the other way around. There are infinite ways we will get back to fundamental. But all I know is that when price reach fundamental level, that’s a decent time to buy if you can truly afford the place. Do you see my recurring argument yet? If not, let me restate it again, it’s all about fundamental. Also, did I ever say today price is at fundamental? Fundamental is different for different area. That’s why I say do you own calculation for your specific case.

[an]

marion, how can you be so sure that price will fall below fundamental? There are many forces at work that will affect the price. I’m sorry but I’m not smart enough to account for all the possibility. Your IF case is just as likely as IF price drops to fundamental level and stay flat for a long time and let inflation make the real price undershoot the fundamental. Or IF the FED keep on dropping interest rate, which might then cause a massive inflation and fundamental catch up to price instead of the other way around. There are infinite ways we will get back to fundamental. But all I know is that when price reach fundamental level, that’s a decent time to buy if you can truly afford the place. Do you see my recurring argument yet? If not, let me restate it again, it’s all about fundamental. Also, did I ever say today price is at fundamental? Fundamental is different for different area. That’s why I say do you own calculation for your specific case.

[an]

marion, how can you be so sure that price will fall below fundamental? There are many forces at work that will affect the price. I’m sorry but I’m not smart enough to account for all the possibility. Your IF case is just as likely as IF price drops to fundamental level and stay flat for a long time and let inflation make the real price undershoot the fundamental. Or IF the FED keep on dropping interest rate, which might then cause a massive inflation and fundamental catch up to price instead of the other way around. There are infinite ways we will get back to fundamental. But all I know is that when price reach fundamental level, that’s a decent time to buy if you can truly afford the place. Do you see my recurring argument yet? If not, let me restate it again, it’s all about fundamental. Also, did I ever say today price is at fundamental? Fundamental is different for different area. That’s why I say do you own calculation for your specific case.

[Eugene]

Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) that second year and thereafter, you’re gonna lose money. Period.

The argument is this. If we’re back to fundamentals, prices may continue dropping but only at the expense of rising interest rates. You can buy a house today for $500k, agree to pay $3000/month, and live in it for 20 years, and sell it for (let’s say)$1 mil. Alternatively, you can rent for two more years, buy the same house for $400k, end up paying the same $3000/month, live in it for 18 years, and sell it for $1 mil. Net result is the same.

And if you think that you may have to sell after a few years, you should not buy a house in the first place.

[Eugene]

Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) that second year and thereafter, you’re gonna lose money. Period.

The argument is this. If we’re back to fundamentals, prices may continue dropping but only at the expense of rising interest rates. You can buy a house today for $500k, agree to pay $3000/month, and live in it for 20 years, and sell it for (let’s say)$1 mil. Alternatively, you can rent for two more years, buy the same house for $400k, end up paying the same $3000/month, live in it for 18 years, and sell it for $1 mil. Net result is the same.

And if you think that you may have to sell after a few years, you should not buy a house in the first place.

[Eugene]

Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) that second year and thereafter, you’re gonna lose money. Period.

The argument is this. If we’re back to fundamentals, prices may continue dropping but only at the expense of rising interest rates. You can buy a house today for $500k, agree to pay $3000/month, and live in it for 20 years, and sell it for (let’s say)$1 mil. Alternatively, you can rent for two more years, buy the same house for $400k, end up paying the same $3000/month, live in it for 18 years, and sell it for $1 mil. Net result is the same.

And if you think that you may have to sell after a few years, you should not buy a house in the first place.

[Eugene]

Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) that second year and thereafter, you’re gonna lose money. Period.

The argument is this. If we’re back to fundamentals, prices may continue dropping but only at the expense of rising interest rates. You can buy a house today for $500k, agree to pay $3000/month, and live in it for 20 years, and sell it for (let’s say)$1 mil. Alternatively, you can rent for two more years, buy the same house for $400k, end up paying the same $3000/month, live in it for 18 years, and sell it for $1 mil. Net result is the same.

And if you think that you may have to sell after a few years, you should not buy a house in the first place.

[Eugene]

Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) that second year and thereafter, you’re gonna lose money. Period.

The argument is this. If we’re back to fundamentals, prices may continue dropping but only at the expense of rising interest rates. You can buy a house today for $500k, agree to pay $3000/month, and live in it for 20 years, and sell it for (let’s say)$1 mil. Alternatively, you can rent for two more years, buy the same house for $400k, end up paying the same $3000/month, live in it for 18 years, and sell it for $1 mil. Net result is the same.

And if you think that you may have to sell after a few years, you should not buy a house in the first place.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 12:27am.

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

asianautica, I neglected to post that you weren’t making the “payment” argument per se. Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) you’re gonna lose money. Period.

And I believe I did base my argument on comparable interest rates. Again, even then, with a lower price house you save on property taxes.

Reread my post.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 12:27am.

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

asianautica, I neglected to post that you weren’t making the “payment” argument per se. Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) you’re gonna lose money. Period.

And I believe I did base my argument on comparable interest rates. Again, even then, with a lower price house you save on property taxes.

Reread my post.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 12:27am.

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

asianautica, I neglected to post that you weren’t making the “payment” argument per se. Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) you’re gonna lose money. Period.

And I believe I did base my argument on comparable interest rates. Again, even then, with a lower price house you save on property taxes.

Reread my post.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 12:27am.

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

asianautica, I neglected to post that you weren’t making the “payment” argument per se. Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) you’re gonna lose money. Period.

And I believe I did base my argument on comparable interest rates. Again, even then, with a lower price house you save on property taxes.

Reread my post.

[an]

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

[an]

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

[an]

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

[an]

Where did I even mentioned about being able to afford x payment? Please read Rich’s primer and come back here once you understand his point about fundamental and why we called this a bubble. I’m talking about fundamental, not being able to afford x payment. Can you be 100% sure rate won’t go up if price drop to 00-01 price? I can’t, that’s why I stick to fundamental. Wishful thinking on the way down is no different than wishful thinking on the way up. Enjoy your wishful thinking, I’ll stick to my fundamental, thanks. We can very well see 1985 price too if rates goes high enough.

[drunkle]

asian:

job stability. would you buy a house, put money down on a house when you could lose it if you lost your job and had to sell in a down market?

the dot com bubble. 2001 prices were driven by dot jobs, after which, were gone. the rate cuts were to mitigate that recession, reinflating real estate onwards and upwards past 2003.

now i wonder… will the current rate cuts reinflate this bubble yet again?

[drunkle]

asian:

job stability. would you buy a house, put money down on a house when you could lose it if you lost your job and had to sell in a down market?

the dot com bubble. 2001 prices were driven by dot jobs, after which, were gone. the rate cuts were to mitigate that recession, reinflating real estate onwards and upwards past 2003.

now i wonder… will the current rate cuts reinflate this bubble yet again?

[drunkle]

asian:

job stability. would you buy a house, put money down on a house when you could lose it if you lost your job and had to sell in a down market?

the dot com bubble. 2001 prices were driven by dot jobs, after which, were gone. the rate cuts were to mitigate that recession, reinflating real estate onwards and upwards past 2003.

now i wonder… will the current rate cuts reinflate this bubble yet again?

[drunkle]

asian:

job stability. would you buy a house, put money down on a house when you could lose it if you lost your job and had to sell in a down market?

the dot com bubble. 2001 prices were driven by dot jobs, after which, were gone. the rate cuts were to mitigate that recession, reinflating real estate onwards and upwards past 2003.

now i wonder… will the current rate cuts reinflate this bubble yet again?

[drunkle]

asian:

job stability. would you buy a house, put money down on a house when you could lose it if you lost your job and had to sell in a down market?

the dot com bubble. 2001 prices were driven by dot jobs, after which, were gone. the rate cuts were to mitigate that recession, reinflating real estate onwards and upwards past 2003.

now i wonder… will the current rate cuts reinflate this bubble yet again?

[Anonymous]

asianautica, almost anything can be rationalized. If you buy a house at 2003 prices and it drops to 2000-2001 prices, you’re still going to lose money. You’ll be paying more money any way you slice it, with a comparable interest rate. An agent at one of the new developments has been bugging me for weeks, trying to get me to qualify for one of his stupid houses. What he always asks is “can you afford xxx payment?” Well, that’s like your argument, it’s not whether you can afford the payment, it’s the price of the house that’s important. The reason, obviously is whatever that payment is (affordable or not) when the price goes lower, that payment goes lower.

Gullible people buy based on that rationalization. It’s like the sleazy car salesmen: “Can you afford xxx payment?” It’s not the payment. You want to get the best deal and the best deal is the overall price. Sure, individual situations have to be taken into account, I’m talking about those who plan on staying in their home for long term with a fixed rate mortgage.

It’s always best to get the lowest price. Not to mention, you’ll pay less on property taxes.

P.S. I softened that to “gullible”.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, almost anything can be rationalized. If you buy a house at 2003 prices and it drops to 2000-2001 prices, you’re still going to lose money. You’ll be paying more money any way you slice it, with a comparable interest rate. An agent at one of the new developments has been bugging me for weeks, trying to get me to qualify for one of his stupid houses. What he always asks is “can you afford xxx payment?” Well, that’s like your argument, it’s not whether you can afford the payment, it’s the price of the house that’s important. The reason, obviously is whatever that payment is (affordable or not) when the price goes lower, that payment goes lower.

Gullible people buy based on that rationalization. It’s like the sleazy car salesmen: “Can you afford xxx payment?” It’s not the payment. You want to get the best deal and the best deal is the overall price. Sure, individual situations have to be taken into account, I’m talking about those who plan on staying in their home for long term with a fixed rate mortgage.

It’s always best to get the lowest price. Not to mention, you’ll pay less on property taxes.

P.S. I softened that to “gullible”.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, almost anything can be rationalized. If you buy a house at 2003 prices and it drops to 2000-2001 prices, you’re still going to lose money. You’ll be paying more money any way you slice it, with a comparable interest rate. An agent at one of the new developments has been bugging me for weeks, trying to get me to qualify for one of his stupid houses. What he always asks is “can you afford xxx payment?” Well, that’s like your argument, it’s not whether you can afford the payment, it’s the price of the house that’s important. The reason, obviously is whatever that payment is (affordable or not) when the price goes lower, that payment goes lower.

Gullible people buy based on that rationalization. It’s like the sleazy car salesmen: “Can you afford xxx payment?” It’s not the payment. You want to get the best deal and the best deal is the overall price. Sure, individual situations have to be taken into account, I’m talking about those who plan on staying in their home for long term with a fixed rate mortgage.

It’s always best to get the lowest price. Not to mention, you’ll pay less on property taxes.

P.S. I softened that to “gullible”.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, almost anything can be rationalized. If you buy a house at 2003 prices and it drops to 2000-2001 prices, you’re still going to lose money. You’ll be paying more money any way you slice it, with a comparable interest rate. An agent at one of the new developments has been bugging me for weeks, trying to get me to qualify for one of his stupid houses. What he always asks is “can you afford xxx payment?” Well, that’s like your argument, it’s not whether you can afford the payment, it’s the price of the house that’s important. The reason, obviously is whatever that payment is (affordable or not) when the price goes lower, that payment goes lower.

Gullible people buy based on that rationalization. It’s like the sleazy car salesmen: “Can you afford xxx payment?” It’s not the payment. You want to get the best deal and the best deal is the overall price. Sure, individual situations have to be taken into account, I’m talking about those who plan on staying in their home for long term with a fixed rate mortgage.

It’s always best to get the lowest price. Not to mention, you’ll pay less on property taxes.

P.S. I softened that to “gullible”.

[an]

marion, no, I don’t have money to lose. I’m just stating the fundamental. That’s the best I can hope for. Sure, we’ll probably undershoot just like we overshoot. But that’s just icing on the cake. I agree, 2003 price, houses were over priced. I’d reserve the “way” part to 2005, but that’s beside the point. But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. You have to do the calculation for your own specific case, but you also have to consider that renting is losing money as well. If you can buy a house where the mortgage (P+I) = rent, then why wouldn’t you. I hate to sound like a perma-bull but you have to live somewhere. So if the interest you’re paying the bank is less than the rent you’re paying, then what do you have to lose? I’m also using 0% down to do the comparison as well, to keep the calculation as fair as possible.

[an]

marion, no, I don’t have money to lose. I’m just stating the fundamental. That’s the best I can hope for. Sure, we’ll probably undershoot just like we overshoot. But that’s just icing on the cake. I agree, 2003 price, houses were over priced. I’d reserve the “way” part to 2005, but that’s beside the point. But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. You have to do the calculation for your own specific case, but you also have to consider that renting is losing money as well. If you can buy a house where the mortgage (P+I) = rent, then why wouldn’t you. I hate to sound like a perma-bull but you have to live somewhere. So if the interest you’re paying the bank is less than the rent you’re paying, then what do you have to lose? I’m also using 0% down to do the comparison as well, to keep the calculation as fair as possible.

[an]

marion, no, I don’t have money to lose. I’m just stating the fundamental. That’s the best I can hope for. Sure, we’ll probably undershoot just like we overshoot. But that’s just icing on the cake. I agree, 2003 price, houses were over priced. I’d reserve the “way” part to 2005, but that’s beside the point. But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. You have to do the calculation for your own specific case, but you also have to consider that renting is losing money as well. If you can buy a house where the mortgage (P+I) = rent, then why wouldn’t you. I hate to sound like a perma-bull but you have to live somewhere. So if the interest you’re paying the bank is less than the rent you’re paying, then what do you have to lose? I’m also using 0% down to do the comparison as well, to keep the calculation as fair as possible.

[an]

marion, no, I don’t have money to lose. I’m just stating the fundamental. That’s the best I can hope for. Sure, we’ll probably undershoot just like we overshoot. But that’s just icing on the cake. I agree, 2003 price, houses were over priced. I’d reserve the “way” part to 2005, but that’s beside the point. But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. You have to do the calculation for your own specific case, but you also have to consider that renting is losing money as well. If you can buy a house where the mortgage (P+I) = rent, then why wouldn’t you. I hate to sound like a perma-bull but you have to live somewhere. So if the interest you’re paying the bank is less than the rent you’re paying, then what do you have to lose? I’m also using 0% down to do the comparison as well, to keep the calculation as fair as possible.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, do you have money to lose if prices continue to drop? By 2003, houses were way overpriced.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, do you have money to lose if prices continue to drop? By 2003, houses were way overpriced.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, do you have money to lose if prices continue to drop? By 2003, houses were way overpriced.

[Anonymous]

asianautica, do you have money to lose if prices continue to drop? By 2003, houses were way overpriced.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[sd_bear]

Even if (and a very not plausible if) prices don’t even drop very much in that area from here on out, there certainly isn’t any pressure for increased prices anytime in the near future, so you really have no reason not to wait.

Worst case: Prices remain flat for a few years and you have more money saved and can buy at the same price without having wasted any money on maintenance, etc.

Best (likely) case: Prices drop during the next few years, you have more money saved, and you can buy that house at quite a discount or a bigger house for the same amount of money.

[sd_bear]

Even if (and a very not plausible if) prices don’t even drop very much in that area from here on out, there certainly isn’t any pressure for increased prices anytime in the near future, so you really have no reason not to wait.

Worst case: Prices remain flat for a few years and you have more money saved and can buy at the same price without having wasted any money on maintenance, etc.

Best (likely) case: Prices drop during the next few years, you have more money saved, and you can buy that house at quite a discount or a bigger house for the same amount of money.

[sd_bear]

Even if (and a very not plausible if) prices don’t even drop very much in that area from here on out, there certainly isn’t any pressure for increased prices anytime in the near future, so you really have no reason not to wait.

Worst case: Prices remain flat for a few years and you have more money saved and can buy at the same price without having wasted any money on maintenance, etc.

Best (likely) case: Prices drop during the next few years, you have more money saved, and you can buy that house at quite a discount or a bigger house for the same amount of money.

[sd_bear]

Even if (and a very not plausible if) prices don’t even drop very much in that area from here on out, there certainly isn’t any pressure for increased prices anytime in the near future, so you really have no reason not to wait.

Worst case: Prices remain flat for a few years and you have more money saved and can buy at the same price without having wasted any money on maintenance, etc.

Best (likely) case: Prices drop during the next few years, you have more money saved, and you can buy that house at quite a discount or a bigger house for the same amount of money.

[Aecetia]

If you can afford to wait, why not rent in the area and see if you like it? You might not like the shopping, schools, commute, etc. What is the rush? I think prices will continue to drop and if you read some of the previous postings, you will get a better idea of the trends in the region. Good luck to you.

[Aecetia]

If you can afford to wait, why not rent in the area and see if you like it? You might not like the shopping, schools, commute, etc. What is the rush? I think prices will continue to drop and if you read some of the previous postings, you will get a better idea of the trends in the region. Good luck to you.

[Aecetia]

If you can afford to wait, why not rent in the area and see if you like it? You might not like the shopping, schools, commute, etc. What is the rush? I think prices will continue to drop and if you read some of the previous postings, you will get a better idea of the trends in the region. Good luck to you.

[Aecetia]

If you can afford to wait, why not rent in the area and see if you like it? You might not like the shopping, schools, commute, etc. What is the rush? I think prices will continue to drop and if you read some of the previous postings, you will get a better idea of the trends in the region. Good luck to you.

[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[Eugene]

the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment

Assuming that the guy at 10771 La Alberca Ave put 20% down, he had a down payment of $128,000, and CD interest rates were probably higher back in 2000.

It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

It’s called Bernardo Springs. Basically an older version of 4S Ranch. I happen to be renting an apartment in the area and I can assure you that there’s no ocean view there. (Maybe if you climb on top of Black Mountain, you’ll see the ocean.) Can’t speak for upgrades and build quality, I’m too poor to afford a SFR in either one of those two neighborhoods.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I’m moving on from this thread, however, you forgot (at a minimum) the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment. At 4% interest this is an extra $446 monthly on top of your $3980. (an extra 10% a month is more than just a little difference, too…isn’t that amount enough to sink most ARM holders?)

Lastly…the home you linked to isn’t even in 4S Ranch. It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I’m moving on from this thread, however, you forgot (at a minimum) the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment. At 4% interest this is an extra $446 monthly on top of your $3980. (an extra 10% a month is more than just a little difference, too…isn’t that amount enough to sink most ARM holders?)

Lastly…the home you linked to isn’t even in 4S Ranch. It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I’m moving on from this thread, however, you forgot (at a minimum) the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment. At 4% interest this is an extra $446 monthly on top of your $3980. (an extra 10% a month is more than just a little difference, too…isn’t that amount enough to sink most ARM holders?)

Lastly…the home you linked to isn’t even in 4S Ranch. It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I’m moving on from this thread, however, you forgot (at a minimum) the opportunity cost on $134,000 down payment. At 4% interest this is an extra $446 monthly on top of your $3980. (an extra 10% a month is more than just a little difference, too…isn’t that amount enough to sink most ARM holders?)

Lastly…the home you linked to isn’t even in 4S Ranch. It appears to be in Patina…much, much nicer than 4S Ranch, likely with an ocean view and beautiful upgrades.

[newcomer]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

[drunkle]

arms at 5% have got to be the best deal going right now… bernanke pretty much said he’d continue cutting rates… even if he stops at some point, there’s no way he’d raise rates again for awhile. if a new fed gets appointed with the new president, he’d be commiting political suicide if the new fed raised rates before the end of his term…

[drunkle]

arms at 5% have got to be the best deal going right now… bernanke pretty much said he’d continue cutting rates… even if he stops at some point, there’s no way he’d raise rates again for awhile. if a new fed gets appointed with the new president, he’d be commiting political suicide if the new fed raised rates before the end of his term…

[drunkle]

arms at 5% have got to be the best deal going right now… bernanke pretty much said he’d continue cutting rates… even if he stops at some point, there’s no way he’d raise rates again for awhile. if a new fed gets appointed with the new president, he’d be commiting political suicide if the new fed raised rates before the end of his term…

[drunkle]

arms at 5% have got to be the best deal going right now… bernanke pretty much said he’d continue cutting rates… even if he stops at some point, there’s no way he’d raise rates again for awhile. if a new fed gets appointed with the new president, he’d be commiting political suicide if the new fed raised rates before the end of his term…

[drunkle]

arms at 5% have got to be the best deal going right now… bernanke pretty much said he’d continue cutting rates… even if he stops at some point, there’s no way he’d raise rates again for awhile. if a new fed gets appointed with the new president, he’d be commiting political suicide if the new fed raised rates before the end of his term…

[Eugene]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

If I’m buying a house for 670k, I’m sure I can afford to pay 12k for 2 points.

[Eugene]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

If I’m buying a house for 670k, I’m sure I can afford to pay 12k for 2 points.

[Eugene]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

If I’m buying a house for 670k, I’m sure I can afford to pay 12k for 2 points.

[Eugene]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

If I’m buying a house for 670k, I’m sure I can afford to pay 12k for 2 points.

[Eugene]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

If I’m buying a house for 670k, I’m sure I can afford to pay 12k for 2 points.

[an]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

Here ya go.

drunkle:

Then you shouldn’t be stretching to buy a house if your job is that unstable, right? Can you afford a $1400/month payment on a house when rent for a 2bed/2bath apartment goes for the same? You can get roommates, $300/room/month, that’s $1200/month. Then work at McDonald to get that extra $200/month for mortgage. Or rent out your living room for another $200/month. My point is that, if you lose your job and have no saving to keep you afloat for a year, then you shouldn’t have bought that house in the first place. What would you do with rent if you have no saving and lose your job too? Fundamental is still fundamental. We can deviate from fundamental for only so long before we revert back to it, be it above or below fundamental.

[drunkle]

asian:

but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

[an]

drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

[drunkle]

asian:

well, at that point, “fundamental” sorta loses meaning, eh? with all the variables shifting, you can no longer peg “fundamental” as 200x + inflation…

that’s my primary point, that pegging to a date (you liked 2003 based on the charts, i like 2000 based on gut feeling… might just be indigestion…) doesn’t really work.

[an]

drunkle, to me, fundamental is rent. I could be wrong, but when it’s cheaper to buy than rent, most people on the side line and first time home buyer will jump in. I don’t see how fundamental can lose meaning. Fundamental is a moving target but it’s always there. That’s the whole premise of this site.

[drunkle]

asian:

you were making the case:

“But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. ”

to which i suggest two reasons why we could break 2003. jobs and the preexisting “bubble”. consider, in the eighties, the prior re bubble was measured in time spanning less than 5 years. from 1997 to 2003, that’s 6 years. but the dot com bubble as noted only lasted 4, from 97 to 01. the greenspan bubble took over from 01 to 05. it was a double bubble.

in other words, i was suggesting why your definition of fundamental could be off. not that “fundamental” in and of itself is somehow wrong.

[an]

drunkle, point taken. I guess I was projecting the area I’m interested in to the rest of the other areas, which is wrong. We both agree then. I should have said, “ASSUMING 2003 is at fundamental…”. But since I’m talking about Jan 01, 2003 price instead of Dec 31, 2003 price, I’m not completely wrong, right? :-D.

[drunkle]

asian:

sure. and i’m looking for prices to hit where i can responsibly pay the mortgage, save for retirement and still have fun. which is why 2000 is my “fundamental”…

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by drunkle on January 24, 2008 – 1:45am.

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

MY fundamental is a sweet, comfortable house in Temecula/Murrieta, with a cute staircase, a view, almost white carpet, granite countertops, nice cabinets, flooring and a pool sized lot.

[drunkle]

marion:

your fundamental is boring. you looking to nest or something?

[Anonymous]

Looking to nest? Yeah, why not?

The house may be boring, but what goes on in the master bedroom won’t be…

Hehe.

😉

[drunkle]

marion:

painting a car in the master bedroom might be fun, but doesn’t seem a good idea… especially since i like my sheets…

just teasing of course. aside from temecula and granite, your fundamentals sound perfectly nice.

[drunkle]

marion:

painting a car in the master bedroom might be fun, but doesn’t seem a good idea… especially since i like my sheets…

just teasing of course. aside from temecula and granite, your fundamentals sound perfectly nice.

[drunkle]

marion:

painting a car in the master bedroom might be fun, but doesn’t seem a good idea… especially since i like my sheets…

just teasing of course. aside from temecula and granite, your fundamentals sound perfectly nice.

[drunkle]

marion:

painting a car in the master bedroom might be fun, but doesn’t seem a good idea… especially since i like my sheets…

just teasing of course. aside from temecula and granite, your fundamentals sound perfectly nice.

[drunkle]

marion:

painting a car in the master bedroom might be fun, but doesn’t seem a good idea… especially since i like my sheets…

just teasing of course. aside from temecula and granite, your fundamentals sound perfectly nice.

[Eugene]

How’s this for a fundamental

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181689

[randy]

@ esmith

The house you mentioned (San Marcos) after reductions is still listing at $196/sqft. The one I am getting in Maybeck comes out to be $188/sq ft. And, did I mention…the house also has ~$20K+ upgrades (granite in kitchen & master bath, fireplace & few other things)

In regards to the house shown on zillow (2000 built, $640K), I am assuming the owner got some $60K-$70K upgrades as the usual price at that time was ~$550K-$570K for a similar sized home.

These posts have been really helpful. So, keep them coming.

Thanks.

[randy]

@ esmith

The house you mentioned (San Marcos) after reductions is still listing at $196/sqft. The one I am getting in Maybeck comes out to be $188/sq ft. And, did I mention…the house also has ~$20K+ upgrades (granite in kitchen & master bath, fireplace & few other things)

In regards to the house shown on zillow (2000 built, $640K), I am assuming the owner got some $60K-$70K upgrades as the usual price at that time was ~$550K-$570K for a similar sized home.

These posts have been really helpful. So, keep them coming.

Thanks.

[randy]

@ esmith

The house you mentioned (San Marcos) after reductions is still listing at $196/sqft. The one I am getting in Maybeck comes out to be $188/sq ft. And, did I mention…the house also has ~$20K+ upgrades (granite in kitchen & master bath, fireplace & few other things)

In regards to the house shown on zillow (2000 built, $640K), I am assuming the owner got some $60K-$70K upgrades as the usual price at that time was ~$550K-$570K for a similar sized home.

These posts have been really helpful. So, keep them coming.

Thanks.

[randy]

@ esmith

The house you mentioned (San Marcos) after reductions is still listing at $196/sqft. The one I am getting in Maybeck comes out to be $188/sq ft. And, did I mention…the house also has ~$20K+ upgrades (granite in kitchen & master bath, fireplace & few other things)

In regards to the house shown on zillow (2000 built, $640K), I am assuming the owner got some $60K-$70K upgrades as the usual price at that time was ~$550K-$570K for a similar sized home.

These posts have been really helpful. So, keep them coming.

Thanks.

[randy]

@ esmith

The house you mentioned (San Marcos) after reductions is still listing at $196/sqft. The one I am getting in Maybeck comes out to be $188/sq ft. And, did I mention…the house also has ~$20K+ upgrades (granite in kitchen & master bath, fireplace & few other things)

In regards to the house shown on zillow (2000 built, $640K), I am assuming the owner got some $60K-$70K upgrades as the usual price at that time was ~$550K-$570K for a similar sized home.

These posts have been really helpful. So, keep them coming.

Thanks.

[Eugene]

How’s this for a fundamental

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181689

[Eugene]

How’s this for a fundamental

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181689

[Eugene]

How’s this for a fundamental

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181689

[Eugene]

How’s this for a fundamental

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181689

[Anonymous]

Looking to nest? Yeah, why not?

The house may be boring, but what goes on in the master bedroom won’t be…

Hehe.

😉

[Anonymous]

Looking to nest? Yeah, why not?

The house may be boring, but what goes on in the master bedroom won’t be…

Hehe.

😉

[Anonymous]

Looking to nest? Yeah, why not?

The house may be boring, but what goes on in the master bedroom won’t be…

Hehe.

😉

[Anonymous]

Looking to nest? Yeah, why not?

The house may be boring, but what goes on in the master bedroom won’t be…

Hehe.

😉

[drunkle]

marion:

your fundamental is boring. you looking to nest or something?

[drunkle]

marion:

your fundamental is boring. you looking to nest or something?

[drunkle]

marion:

your fundamental is boring. you looking to nest or something?

[drunkle]

marion:

your fundamental is boring. you looking to nest or something?

[Anonymous]

Submitted by drunkle on January 24, 2008 – 1:45am.

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

MY fundamental is a sweet, comfortable house in Temecula/Murrieta, with a cute staircase, a view, almost white carpet, granite countertops, nice cabinets, flooring and a pool sized lot.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by drunkle on January 24, 2008 – 1:45am.

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

MY fundamental is a sweet, comfortable house in Temecula/Murrieta, with a cute staircase, a view, almost white carpet, granite countertops, nice cabinets, flooring and a pool sized lot.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by drunkle on January 24, 2008 – 1:45am.

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

MY fundamental is a sweet, comfortable house in Temecula/Murrieta, with a cute staircase, a view, almost white carpet, granite countertops, nice cabinets, flooring and a pool sized lot.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by drunkle on January 24, 2008 – 1:45am.

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

MY fundamental is a sweet, comfortable house in Temecula/Murrieta, with a cute staircase, a view, almost white carpet, granite countertops, nice cabinets, flooring and a pool sized lot.

[drunkle]

asian:

sure. and i’m looking for prices to hit where i can responsibly pay the mortgage, save for retirement and still have fun. which is why 2000 is my “fundamental”…

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

[drunkle]

asian:

sure. and i’m looking for prices to hit where i can responsibly pay the mortgage, save for retirement and still have fun. which is why 2000 is my “fundamental”…

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

[drunkle]

asian:

sure. and i’m looking for prices to hit where i can responsibly pay the mortgage, save for retirement and still have fun. which is why 2000 is my “fundamental”…

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

[drunkle]

asian:

sure. and i’m looking for prices to hit where i can responsibly pay the mortgage, save for retirement and still have fun. which is why 2000 is my “fundamental”…

btw, my “fundamental” includes a 4 car garage, 2 acres with beach access and a pool. and a shack to crash in… so it’s cool.

[an]

drunkle, point taken. I guess I was projecting the area I’m interested in to the rest of the other areas, which is wrong. We both agree then. I should have said, “ASSUMING 2003 is at fundamental…”. But since I’m talking about Jan 01, 2003 price instead of Dec 31, 2003 price, I’m not completely wrong, right? :-D.

[an]

drunkle, point taken. I guess I was projecting the area I’m interested in to the rest of the other areas, which is wrong. We both agree then. I should have said, “ASSUMING 2003 is at fundamental…”. But since I’m talking about Jan 01, 2003 price instead of Dec 31, 2003 price, I’m not completely wrong, right? :-D.

[an]

drunkle, point taken. I guess I was projecting the area I’m interested in to the rest of the other areas, which is wrong. We both agree then. I should have said, “ASSUMING 2003 is at fundamental…”. But since I’m talking about Jan 01, 2003 price instead of Dec 31, 2003 price, I’m not completely wrong, right? :-D.

[an]

drunkle, point taken. I guess I was projecting the area I’m interested in to the rest of the other areas, which is wrong. We both agree then. I should have said, “ASSUMING 2003 is at fundamental…”. But since I’m talking about Jan 01, 2003 price instead of Dec 31, 2003 price, I’m not completely wrong, right? :-D.

[Anonymous]

asian: But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up.

And if the price drops 6 months later with comparable interest rates, then yeah, it’s a bad deal if you care as much as I do about losing money.

[Anonymous]

asian: But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up.

And if the price drops 6 months later with comparable interest rates, then yeah, it’s a bad deal if you care as much as I do about losing money.

[Anonymous]

asian: But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up.

And if the price drops 6 months later with comparable interest rates, then yeah, it’s a bad deal if you care as much as I do about losing money.

[Anonymous]

asian: But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up.

And if the price drops 6 months later with comparable interest rates, then yeah, it’s a bad deal if you care as much as I do about losing money.

[Anonymous]

asian: But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up.

And if the price drops 6 months later with comparable interest rates, then yeah, it’s a bad deal if you care as much as I do about losing money.

[drunkle]

asian:

you were making the case:

“But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. ”

to which i suggest two reasons why we could break 2003. jobs and the preexisting “bubble”. consider, in the eighties, the prior re bubble was measured in time spanning less than 5 years. from 1997 to 2003, that’s 6 years. but the dot com bubble as noted only lasted 4, from 97 to 01. the greenspan bubble took over from 01 to 05. it was a double bubble.

in other words, i was suggesting why your definition of fundamental could be off. not that “fundamental” in and of itself is somehow wrong.

[drunkle]

asian:

you were making the case:

“But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. ”

to which i suggest two reasons why we could break 2003. jobs and the preexisting “bubble”. consider, in the eighties, the prior re bubble was measured in time spanning less than 5 years. from 1997 to 2003, that’s 6 years. but the dot com bubble as noted only lasted 4, from 97 to 01. the greenspan bubble took over from 01 to 05. it was a double bubble.

in other words, i was suggesting why your definition of fundamental could be off. not that “fundamental” in and of itself is somehow wrong.

[drunkle]

asian:

you were making the case:

“But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. ”

to which i suggest two reasons why we could break 2003. jobs and the preexisting “bubble”. consider, in the eighties, the prior re bubble was measured in time spanning less than 5 years. from 1997 to 2003, that’s 6 years. but the dot com bubble as noted only lasted 4, from 97 to 01. the greenspan bubble took over from 01 to 05. it was a double bubble.

in other words, i was suggesting why your definition of fundamental could be off. not that “fundamental” in and of itself is somehow wrong.

[drunkle]

asian:

you were making the case:

“But 2003 nominal price + 5 years of inflation, would not be too bad of a deal. When I’m talking about 2003 price, I mean Jan 1st, 2003, not Dec 31st, since 2003 saw a HUGE run up. ”

to which i suggest two reasons why we could break 2003. jobs and the preexisting “bubble”. consider, in the eighties, the prior re bubble was measured in time spanning less than 5 years. from 1997 to 2003, that’s 6 years. but the dot com bubble as noted only lasted 4, from 97 to 01. the greenspan bubble took over from 01 to 05. it was a double bubble.

in other words, i was suggesting why your definition of fundamental could be off. not that “fundamental” in and of itself is somehow wrong.

[an]

drunkle, to me, fundamental is rent. I could be wrong, but when it’s cheaper to buy than rent, most people on the side line and first time home buyer will jump in. I don’t see how fundamental can lose meaning. Fundamental is a moving target but it’s always there. That’s the whole premise of this site.

[an]

drunkle, to me, fundamental is rent. I could be wrong, but when it’s cheaper to buy than rent, most people on the side line and first time home buyer will jump in. I don’t see how fundamental can lose meaning. Fundamental is a moving target but it’s always there. That’s the whole premise of this site.

[an]

drunkle, to me, fundamental is rent. I could be wrong, but when it’s cheaper to buy than rent, most people on the side line and first time home buyer will jump in. I don’t see how fundamental can lose meaning. Fundamental is a moving target but it’s always there. That’s the whole premise of this site.

[an]

drunkle, to me, fundamental is rent. I could be wrong, but when it’s cheaper to buy than rent, most people on the side line and first time home buyer will jump in. I don’t see how fundamental can lose meaning. Fundamental is a moving target but it’s always there. That’s the whole premise of this site.

[drunkle]

asian:

well, at that point, “fundamental” sorta loses meaning, eh? with all the variables shifting, you can no longer peg “fundamental” as 200x + inflation…

that’s my primary point, that pegging to a date (you liked 2003 based on the charts, i like 2000 based on gut feeling… might just be indigestion…) doesn’t really work.

[drunkle]

asian:

well, at that point, “fundamental” sorta loses meaning, eh? with all the variables shifting, you can no longer peg “fundamental” as 200x + inflation…

that’s my primary point, that pegging to a date (you liked 2003 based on the charts, i like 2000 based on gut feeling… might just be indigestion…) doesn’t really work.

[drunkle]

asian:

well, at that point, “fundamental” sorta loses meaning, eh? with all the variables shifting, you can no longer peg “fundamental” as 200x + inflation…

that’s my primary point, that pegging to a date (you liked 2003 based on the charts, i like 2000 based on gut feeling… might just be indigestion…) doesn’t really work.

[drunkle]

asian:

well, at that point, “fundamental” sorta loses meaning, eh? with all the variables shifting, you can no longer peg “fundamental” as 200x + inflation…

that’s my primary point, that pegging to a date (you liked 2003 based on the charts, i like 2000 based on gut feeling… might just be indigestion…) doesn’t really work.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 1:05am.

ou can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

We’re arguing two different things, asianautica.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 1:05am.

ou can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

We’re arguing two different things, asianautica.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 1:05am.

ou can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

We’re arguing two different things, asianautica.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 1:05am.

ou can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

We’re arguing two different things, asianautica.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by asianautica on January 24, 2008 – 1:05am.

ou can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

We’re arguing two different things, asianautica.

[an]

drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

[an]

drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

[an]

drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

[an]

drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

[Eugene]

right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

[drunkle]

esmith:

i did not make the case that housing would decline indefinately. you made that straw man.

[drunkle]

esmith:

i did not make the case that housing would decline indefinately. you made that straw man.

[drunkle]

esmith:

i did not make the case that housing would decline indefinately. you made that straw man.

[drunkle]

esmith:

i did not make the case that housing would decline indefinately. you made that straw man.

[drunkle]

esmith:

i did not make the case that housing would decline indefinately. you made that straw man.

[Eugene]

right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

[Eugene]

right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

[Eugene]

right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

[Eugene]

right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

[drunkle]

asian:

but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

[drunkle]

asian:

but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

[drunkle]

asian:

but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

[drunkle]

asian:

but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

[an]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

Here ya go.

drunkle:

Then you shouldn’t be stretching to buy a house if your job is that unstable, right? Can you afford a $1400/month payment on a house when rent for a 2bed/2bath apartment goes for the same? You can get roommates, $300/room/month, that’s $1200/month. Then work at McDonald to get that extra $200/month for mortgage. Or rent out your living room for another $200/month. My point is that, if you lose your job and have no saving to keep you afloat for a year, then you shouldn’t have bought that house in the first place. What would you do with rent if you have no saving and lose your job too? Fundamental is still fundamental. We can deviate from fundamental for only so long before we revert back to it, be it above or below fundamental.

[an]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

Here ya go.

drunkle:

Then you shouldn’t be stretching to buy a house if your job is that unstable, right? Can you afford a $1400/month payment on a house when rent for a 2bed/2bath apartment goes for the same? You can get roommates, $300/room/month, that’s $1200/month. Then work at McDonald to get that extra $200/month for mortgage. Or rent out your living room for another $200/month. My point is that, if you lose your job and have no saving to keep you afloat for a year, then you shouldn’t have bought that house in the first place. What would you do with rent if you have no saving and lose your job too? Fundamental is still fundamental. We can deviate from fundamental for only so long before we revert back to it, be it above or below fundamental.

[an]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

Here ya go.

drunkle:

Then you shouldn’t be stretching to buy a house if your job is that unstable, right? Can you afford a $1400/month payment on a house when rent for a 2bed/2bath apartment goes for the same? You can get roommates, $300/room/month, that’s $1200/month. Then work at McDonald to get that extra $200/month for mortgage. Or rent out your living room for another $200/month. My point is that, if you lose your job and have no saving to keep you afloat for a year, then you shouldn’t have bought that house in the first place. What would you do with rent if you have no saving and lose your job too? Fundamental is still fundamental. We can deviate from fundamental for only so long before we revert back to it, be it above or below fundamental.

[an]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

Here ya go.

drunkle:

Then you shouldn’t be stretching to buy a house if your job is that unstable, right? Can you afford a $1400/month payment on a house when rent for a 2bed/2bath apartment goes for the same? You can get roommates, $300/room/month, that’s $1200/month. Then work at McDonald to get that extra $200/month for mortgage. Or rent out your living room for another $200/month. My point is that, if you lose your job and have no saving to keep you afloat for a year, then you shouldn’t have bought that house in the first place. What would you do with rent if you have no saving and lose your job too? Fundamental is still fundamental. We can deviate from fundamental for only so long before we revert back to it, be it above or below fundamental.

[newcomer]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

[newcomer]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

[newcomer]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

[newcomer]

esmith, when you quotoed the jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% , who will pay you the points???

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[Eugene]

prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year

your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point

$536k jumbo fixed 30-year mortgage @ 5.125% ($2920)
Property tax ($560)
Mello-Roos ($400)
HOA ($100)
—
$3980

Did I forget anything?

will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

If $4000 only bought you this much in 2000 before we even had a bubble, why do you think it will buy you a lot nicer home in 2010? What exactly is “a lot nicer” than a centrally-located brand new 3500 sq ft home in 4S Ranch? La Jolla, Del Mar, RSF and Coronado taken together have something like 15,000 homes. (In a county with 3 million people and 100,000 millionaire households) CV, Scripps Ranch and 4S Ranch are next in line.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

esmith:

too many holes…too little time.

perhaps someone else has the patience and time to set this poster straight…I’ll start:

1) prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year (you claim they may fall if interest go up)

2) $4000 a month (your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point) will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

op: keep your $134,000 down payment (20% of $670,000) for now…you’ll be happy you did

[lendingbubblecontinues]

esmith:

too many holes…too little time.

perhaps someone else has the patience and time to set this poster straight…I’ll start:

1) prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year (you claim they may fall if interest go up)

2) $4000 a month (your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point) will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

op: keep your $134,000 down payment (20% of $670,000) for now…you’ll be happy you did

[lendingbubblecontinues]

esmith:

too many holes…too little time.

perhaps someone else has the patience and time to set this poster straight…I’ll start:

1) prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year (you claim they may fall if interest go up)

2) $4000 a month (your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point) will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

op: keep your $134,000 down payment (20% of $670,000) for now…you’ll be happy you did

[lendingbubblecontinues]

esmith:

too many holes…too little time.

perhaps someone else has the patience and time to set this poster straight…I’ll start:

1) prices have been falling in spite of lower interest rates over the past year (you claim they may fall if interest go up)

2) $4000 a month (your figure, not mine, so accuracy not checked and presumably skewed to make a bullish point) will almost certainly buy a hell of a lot nicer home in two years than it does now.

op: keep your $134,000 down payment (20% of $670,000) for now…you’ll be happy you did

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[Eugene]

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation,

What I’m saying is simple. Back in 2000, a house like that cost $4000/month. If you’re waiting for 2k or 3k/month, you may be waiting forever. If you can comfortably afford to pay 4k/month and you’re sure that you won’t have to sell for 10 years, you might as well buy today.

It may go down from 670 to 470, if interest rates go up, but you will still be paying $4000 a month.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

@ esmith–

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation, i.e. when you bought, where and what you bought (generally), and at what price, so that you may help us all begin to see it your way and/or see you as a bubble deny-er through and through.

Otherwise, I’ll just continue to think of you as another “born on third, thinks she hit a triple” type.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

@ esmith–

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation, i.e. when you bought, where and what you bought (generally), and at what price, so that you may help us all begin to see it your way and/or see you as a bubble deny-er through and through.

Otherwise, I’ll just continue to think of you as another “born on third, thinks she hit a triple” type.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

@ esmith–

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation, i.e. when you bought, where and what you bought (generally), and at what price, so that you may help us all begin to see it your way and/or see you as a bubble deny-er through and through.

Otherwise, I’ll just continue to think of you as another “born on third, thinks she hit a triple” type.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

@ esmith–

just wtf are you trying to say here? if you are throwing doubt on future enormous price drops, please state your situation, i.e. when you bought, where and what you bought (generally), and at what price, so that you may help us all begin to see it your way and/or see you as a bubble deny-er through and through.

Otherwise, I’ll just continue to think of you as another “born on third, thinks she hit a triple” type.

[gn]

Randy,

The price offered to you by the builder is quite attractive when compared to the “current market price”. And that’s expected, because builders are under pressure to generate revenues, so they have to offer low prices in order to sell houses.

The problem is: just as your current deal is better than the John Doe who bought last year, another guy who buy this time next year will get a much better deal than what you’re getting. In term of prices, we are nowhere near the bottom.

IMHO, the chances that prices will go down significantly more is 99% (the 1% is for the scenario in which another “credit bubble” appears to pump money into real estate).

[gn]

Randy,

The price offered to you by the builder is quite attractive when compared to the “current market price”. And that’s expected, because builders are under pressure to generate revenues, so they have to offer low prices in order to sell houses.

The problem is: just as your current deal is better than the John Doe who bought last year, another guy who buy this time next year will get a much better deal than what you’re getting. In term of prices, we are nowhere near the bottom.

IMHO, the chances that prices will go down significantly more is 99% (the 1% is for the scenario in which another “credit bubble” appears to pump money into real estate).

[gn]

Randy,

The price offered to you by the builder is quite attractive when compared to the “current market price”. And that’s expected, because builders are under pressure to generate revenues, so they have to offer low prices in order to sell houses.

The problem is: just as your current deal is better than the John Doe who bought last year, another guy who buy this time next year will get a much better deal than what you’re getting. In term of prices, we are nowhere near the bottom.

IMHO, the chances that prices will go down significantly more is 99% (the 1% is for the scenario in which another “credit bubble” appears to pump money into real estate).

[gn]

Randy,

The price offered to you by the builder is quite attractive when compared to the “current market price”. And that’s expected, because builders are under pressure to generate revenues, so they have to offer low prices in order to sell houses.

The problem is: just as your current deal is better than the John Doe who bought last year, another guy who buy this time next year will get a much better deal than what you’re getting. In term of prices, we are nowhere near the bottom.

IMHO, the chances that prices will go down significantly more is 99% (the 1% is for the scenario in which another “credit bubble” appears to pump money into real estate).

[Author]

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