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equalizer
Participantocrenter:
rude and crude. Can’t believe you are running Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking. had enjoyed that site. Don’t normally attack on first strike but I think jg will pardon me this time:
“Do you have a clue about what’s going on in health care because you take more meds than Paris and Lindsay”? Apologies to Don Imus
Participant15% captial gains rate is great. Should complain about taxes on money market, CDs at much higher rates. Sullying about a great profit is so not piggington. After 2000, I am so happy to pay capital gains, since it means I didn’t lose 100% on my tech stocks!
ParticipantRecently his record is pretty good.
On his radio show in Jan 2000, he screamed for everyone to get out of stock and go to GNMAs. I ignored that signal. He favored a small buy in tech at NASDAQ 2000 in 2001(?), which was a bad call. Then in Mar 2003 with S&P 500 at 800 he recommended full exposure to stocks. I did follow partially follow that signal. Has been bullish since then, with S&P 500 target of 1550-1600.
Bob Brinker is the host of the ABC talk radio show Moneytalk, which has been on the air since 1986. He previously had a show on local radio in the New York area going back to 1982. Brinker includes market timing in the investment newsletter he authors, titled Marketimer, which contains recommendations on no-load mutual funds along with several model portolios.
Bob Brinker’s Moneytalk radio show is heard on close to two hundred radio stations on Saturdays and Sundays from 4-7 pm Eastern Time. The show is also heard live on both XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio, and is also streamed live globally on the internet. Moneytalk on Demand is a streaming service that allows around the clock access to Moneytalk radio broadcasts for a monthly fee.
Brinker is a long time member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the Financial Analysts Federation. He served as Vice-President Investment Counsel at The Bank of New York, and on Wall Street as Chief Investment Officer for the U.S. division of Guardian Royal Exchange, London. Bob is the co-founder of the “BJ Group”, an investment management firm that he sold in the summer of year 2000. Brinker continued to provide asset allocation guidance for the firm after the sale.
ParticipantStock Traders Almanac and other have documented the Sell in May works over the past 30-50 years on average.
See http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2002/05/27/newscolumn7.htmlFor buy and hold types, it is not a bad indicator along with
looking at operating and reported P/E ratios, interest rates.The fact that S&P 500 hasn't broken through 1530 is very
scary. But the Dow Theory is still intact. The Transports and DOW still have not broken uptrend, although I think with GM, etc, the Transports may see decline.
So, I stay put with stocks and money market for now.
ParticipantJust wait for the foriegners to start mad buying spree. We know how smart the Japanese investors were buying in 1989 in CA at top and selling at bottom 2-4 years later. Bring in on Chinese, Japanese, Saudia investors. Condos downtown are so cheap!
ParticipantSD Realtor vs Goldman Sachs
In a thrilling zero-round KO, GS is declared the winner.
Who has bought up credit swaps, subdentured debt from sub-prime guys recently?
Take a guess, its the guys on this list! What happended to personal responibility? That campaign rhetoric to get ignorant people to vote for you. You’ve got libs who don’t want to see people lose “rented” homes, cons who don’t want economy to tank for 08 and GS, et. al who are the clean up hitters looking for the homerun in profits. Bailout in a sense has already started. Lenders are already offering to delay resets for 1-2 years for those ARMs or are capping at 2% increase for first reset instead of 5% increase. The losers: Any moron that took out fixed!!So who are the pawns in this game? No, not the FBs, that would be …
me and SD Realtor.
CHARLES E. SCHUMER (D-NY)
Top Contributors
1 Goldman Sachs $270,090
2 Citigroup Inc $241,100
3 Morgan Stanley $194,000
4 Credit Suisse First Boston $154,794
5 Merrill Lynch $147,000
6 Bear Stearns $140,900
7 UBS Americas $139,750
8 JP Morgan Chase & Co $139,550http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?cycle=2004&CID=N00001093
ParticipantI will try to make it.
ParticipantI’m in the middle bear camp. We have to look at all the factors
1) jobs
2) loans
3) interest rates
4) inflation, etcOne factor that is being ignored is the Walmart vs Nordstrom dichotomy. JWN stock is up 300% in 5 years, while the WMT is down 10% in 5 years!!! The beach crowd has gotten richer while the blue collar crowd as gotten a major ass whoppin from inflation [For the no-inflation crowd (the guys at the Fed, for one), I’ll send a note to my friend Alberto who will give a fancy water-boarding treatment at your favorite spa.]
So what does the story of the beautiful people tell us? They are less likely to be in financial dire straits. Thus, homes in fancier areas will experience 15-20% decline, while the “starter” areas will be hot 30-40%.
Participantsdr answered those questions for his hood. Can we get some data for Clairemont, Chula Vista, etc?
ParticipantRO asks the right questions, but casually throws out what he doesn’t like. For example, RO states that ” A given area may have experienced gentrification, infrastructure improvements, etc. that help shore up prices, while another area may have the opposite pulling prices down. I assume this was true during previous busts as well, so I don’t see it as something distinct this time.”
Well that wasn’t true. I don’t think the 0% down, zero closing costs were around back in the 90’s. Just check the latest NOD, foreclosure for SD county and you will see that the low income areas have been hit hardest. Condo conversions were not a big item in the 90’s as they are now.
Here’s some more questions:
How many homes were sold since Jan 2004?
How many of them were financed with 2-3 yr ARMs?
How many of them were refinanced since first loan?
For a certain zip code/sub-zipcode, can we check how many of the homes in that sector were sold since 2004? (Ignore new areas, and check % of new sold compared to all in the sector. I’ll bet that “better” homes had less turnover and hence will experience less depreciation)
Can we pick a street in a few different zip codes and track 10 homes to get a sample?ParticipantForget the tax break hope, the state is so broke.
http://www.savingforcollege.com has some info, but it is not laid out clearly. Most people are under the impression that you can only invest in their state plan, and have you to
dig in to faqs to realize that isn't true. How confusing. This is from the "best" place for info!?!
It appears that Fidelity CA plan has 0.5% expense rate, while the Utah plan has 0.30 to 0.40% rate. Anyone care to verify that?ParticipantCostaMesa is correct
Greenspan wanted to goose the economy and protect the banks, regardless of the consequences.
ParticipantWho is the “they” that should have said something? We did, some journalists (Barrons) did, but no one listened. Greenspan and The Fed should be held accountable for the record because most Americans have been force fed the “Maestro” genius label. This lending affected all home buyers, not just ARM borrowers, because it created artificial shortage for homes that sent prices skyrocketing.
It is not finger pointing, it is setting the record straight. If none of this would have happened with better leadership, why not let the public know that. It won’t help anyone now, but it may force future leaders to remember that we will NOT be ignored. Stand up.
Participantpoor people don’t vote, so your bailout is non-starter.
Poor people shouldn’t vote, bring back the poll tax. $100 to vote for each election. [Only poor people who vote are in rural areas who vote on gay issues.] -
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