[equalizer]

Not a bloodbath. Reeling retailers cut stores. Starbucks, Meryns, etc are closing stores.

Mike Moser, senior vice president of CB Richard Ellis, said San Diego’s retail real estate market is “still pretty healthy.” Vacancy rates have risen from an average of 1 percent to 1.5 percent last year to about 2.5 percentto 3 percent this year, he estimated.

“A neighborhood shopping center that was full a year ago may have one or two vacant spaces in it now, but that is coming off a market that had almost no vacancies,” Moser said. “It’s not like there is a bloodbath out there.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080726-9999-1b26mervyns.html

[equalizer]

commentary on Fitch model change:

“But I’ve heard from more than a few market participants, the kinds of in-the-trenches people that would never get permission from their employer to see their name in print, that the opaque ratings models used by the big three — a “competitive advantage” that all three firms work hard to protect, hence the opacity — also allow the agencies to cover up for models that have some very rudimentary failings in modeling techniques.

The risk factors discussed above would appear to be one example of this, and while it’s good to see Fitch now making an attempt to correct for this, the move to include the variables into the model now is really no different than closing the barn door after the animals have long since run out of their stalls.

And it’s only one example of how ratings models missed clear risk factors that might have forced greater credit enhancement, but might have also protected investors to a larger degree: Fitch said its Resilogic 2.0 model will up penalties for loans written in no-doc or low-doc scenarios, as well as for loans with a piggyback second lien at origination.”

So, competitive factors, aka free market, complete failure for common investor, but not for insiders at every related firm. But once again, its others people’s money, why the bleep does anyone in industry care, its not their money and they cant get fired for being average.

Well, maybe GimmeCredit has some credibility since it is indepedent. It issued warning on WaMu today and it went down another 4%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2ZCdg_BBYlk&refer=home

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/24/ratings-models-missed-essential-collateral-risk-factors/

[equalizer]

commentary on Fitch model change:

“But I’ve heard from more than a few market participants, the kinds of in-the-trenches people that would never get permission from their employer to see their name in print, that the opaque ratings models used by the big three — a “competitive advantage” that all three firms work hard to protect, hence the opacity — also allow the agencies to cover up for models that have some very rudimentary failings in modeling techniques.

The risk factors discussed above would appear to be one example of this, and while it’s good to see Fitch now making an attempt to correct for this, the move to include the variables into the model now is really no different than closing the barn door after the animals have long since run out of their stalls.

And it’s only one example of how ratings models missed clear risk factors that might have forced greater credit enhancement, but might have also protected investors to a larger degree: Fitch said its Resilogic 2.0 model will up penalties for loans written in no-doc or low-doc scenarios, as well as for loans with a piggyback second lien at origination.”

So, competitive factors, aka free market, complete failure for common investor, but not for insiders at every related firm. But once again, its others people’s money, why the bleep does anyone in industry care, its not their money and they cant get fired for being average.

Well, maybe GimmeCredit has some credibility since it is indepedent. It issued warning on WaMu today and it went down another 4%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2ZCdg_BBYlk&refer=home

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/24/ratings-models-missed-essential-collateral-risk-factors/

[equalizer]

commentary on Fitch model change:

“But I’ve heard from more than a few market participants, the kinds of in-the-trenches people that would never get permission from their employer to see their name in print, that the opaque ratings models used by the big three — a “competitive advantage” that all three firms work hard to protect, hence the opacity — also allow the agencies to cover up for models that have some very rudimentary failings in modeling techniques.

The risk factors discussed above would appear to be one example of this, and while it’s good to see Fitch now making an attempt to correct for this, the move to include the variables into the model now is really no different than closing the barn door after the animals have long since run out of their stalls.

And it’s only one example of how ratings models missed clear risk factors that might have forced greater credit enhancement, but might have also protected investors to a larger degree: Fitch said its Resilogic 2.0 model will up penalties for loans written in no-doc or low-doc scenarios, as well as for loans with a piggyback second lien at origination.”

So, competitive factors, aka free market, complete failure for common investor, but not for insiders at every related firm. But once again, its others people’s money, why the bleep does anyone in industry care, its not their money and they cant get fired for being average.

Well, maybe GimmeCredit has some credibility since it is indepedent. It issued warning on WaMu today and it went down another 4%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2ZCdg_BBYlk&refer=home

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/24/ratings-models-missed-essential-collateral-risk-factors/

[equalizer]

commentary on Fitch model change:

“But I’ve heard from more than a few market participants, the kinds of in-the-trenches people that would never get permission from their employer to see their name in print, that the opaque ratings models used by the big three — a “competitive advantage” that all three firms work hard to protect, hence the opacity — also allow the agencies to cover up for models that have some very rudimentary failings in modeling techniques.

The risk factors discussed above would appear to be one example of this, and while it’s good to see Fitch now making an attempt to correct for this, the move to include the variables into the model now is really no different than closing the barn door after the animals have long since run out of their stalls.

And it’s only one example of how ratings models missed clear risk factors that might have forced greater credit enhancement, but might have also protected investors to a larger degree: Fitch said its Resilogic 2.0 model will up penalties for loans written in no-doc or low-doc scenarios, as well as for loans with a piggyback second lien at origination.”

So, competitive factors, aka free market, complete failure for common investor, but not for insiders at every related firm. But once again, its others people’s money, why the bleep does anyone in industry care, its not their money and they cant get fired for being average.

Well, maybe GimmeCredit has some credibility since it is indepedent. It issued warning on WaMu today and it went down another 4%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2ZCdg_BBYlk&refer=home

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/24/ratings-models-missed-essential-collateral-risk-factors/

[equalizer]

commentary on Fitch model change:

“But I’ve heard from more than a few market participants, the kinds of in-the-trenches people that would never get permission from their employer to see their name in print, that the opaque ratings models used by the big three — a “competitive advantage” that all three firms work hard to protect, hence the opacity — also allow the agencies to cover up for models that have some very rudimentary failings in modeling techniques.

The risk factors discussed above would appear to be one example of this, and while it’s good to see Fitch now making an attempt to correct for this, the move to include the variables into the model now is really no different than closing the barn door after the animals have long since run out of their stalls.

And it’s only one example of how ratings models missed clear risk factors that might have forced greater credit enhancement, but might have also protected investors to a larger degree: Fitch said its Resilogic 2.0 model will up penalties for loans written in no-doc or low-doc scenarios, as well as for loans with a piggyback second lien at origination.”

So, competitive factors, aka free market, complete failure for common investor, but not for insiders at every related firm. But once again, its others people’s money, why the bleep does anyone in industry care, its not their money and they cant get fired for being average.

Well, maybe GimmeCredit has some credibility since it is indepedent. It issued warning on WaMu today and it went down another 4%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2ZCdg_BBYlk&refer=home

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/24/ratings-models-missed-essential-collateral-risk-factors/

[equalizer]

My hero of the week: Ken Chenault, CEO of American Express (AXP), The chairman and chief executive of American Express received compensation valued at $53.2 million in 2007, nearly double the $27.3 million he received in 2006, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The main driver behind the raise for the executive, Kenneth I. Chenault, was an increase in the stock and options awards. He received $42.8 million in stock awards in 2007 and an incentive stock option grant. For 2006, his stock awards were valued at $16.9 million. Mr. Chenault’s base salary in 2007 increased nearly 13 percent to $1.24 million, and he got $6.5 million in bonuses. Wonder why there are no negative bonuses if the company/stock tanks?? Stock does good, he get the credit. Stock tanks, its the economy, Piggs causing home prices crashes and litany of American Excuses.

He logs a lot of miles on the company’s corporate jet. According to the company’s proxy statement, he also received $405,375 worth of personal travel on the jet, and $132,019 in personal use of a company car.

Now he has to sacrifice people because you selfish bast**rds are not spending money or paying it back. Well, hope he set aside some money for Soprano type analyst to get through pain of layoffs.

[equalizer]

My hero of the week: Ken Chenault, CEO of American Express (AXP), The chairman and chief executive of American Express received compensation valued at $53.2 million in 2007, nearly double the $27.3 million he received in 2006, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The main driver behind the raise for the executive, Kenneth I. Chenault, was an increase in the stock and options awards. He received $42.8 million in stock awards in 2007 and an incentive stock option grant. For 2006, his stock awards were valued at $16.9 million. Mr. Chenault’s base salary in 2007 increased nearly 13 percent to $1.24 million, and he got $6.5 million in bonuses. Wonder why there are no negative bonuses if the company/stock tanks?? Stock does good, he get the credit. Stock tanks, its the economy, Piggs causing home prices crashes and litany of American Excuses.

He logs a lot of miles on the company’s corporate jet. According to the company’s proxy statement, he also received $405,375 worth of personal travel on the jet, and $132,019 in personal use of a company car.

Now he has to sacrifice people because you selfish bast**rds are not spending money or paying it back. Well, hope he set aside some money for Soprano type analyst to get through pain of layoffs.

[equalizer]

My hero of the week: Ken Chenault, CEO of American Express (AXP), The chairman and chief executive of American Express received compensation valued at $53.2 million in 2007, nearly double the $27.3 million he received in 2006, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The main driver behind the raise for the executive, Kenneth I. Chenault, was an increase in the stock and options awards. He received $42.8 million in stock awards in 2007 and an incentive stock option grant. For 2006, his stock awards were valued at $16.9 million. Mr. Chenault’s base salary in 2007 increased nearly 13 percent to $1.24 million, and he got $6.5 million in bonuses. Wonder why there are no negative bonuses if the company/stock tanks?? Stock does good, he get the credit. Stock tanks, its the economy, Piggs causing home prices crashes and litany of American Excuses.

He logs a lot of miles on the company’s corporate jet. According to the company’s proxy statement, he also received $405,375 worth of personal travel on the jet, and $132,019 in personal use of a company car.

Now he has to sacrifice people because you selfish bast**rds are not spending money or paying it back. Well, hope he set aside some money for Soprano type analyst to get through pain of layoffs.

[equalizer]

My hero of the week: Ken Chenault, CEO of American Express (AXP), The chairman and chief executive of American Express received compensation valued at $53.2 million in 2007, nearly double the $27.3 million he received in 2006, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The main driver behind the raise for the executive, Kenneth I. Chenault, was an increase in the stock and options awards. He received $42.8 million in stock awards in 2007 and an incentive stock option grant. For 2006, his stock awards were valued at $16.9 million. Mr. Chenault’s base salary in 2007 increased nearly 13 percent to $1.24 million, and he got $6.5 million in bonuses. Wonder why there are no negative bonuses if the company/stock tanks?? Stock does good, he get the credit. Stock tanks, its the economy, Piggs causing home prices crashes and litany of American Excuses.

He logs a lot of miles on the company’s corporate jet. According to the company’s proxy statement, he also received $405,375 worth of personal travel on the jet, and $132,019 in personal use of a company car.

Now he has to sacrifice people because you selfish bast**rds are not spending money or paying it back. Well, hope he set aside some money for Soprano type analyst to get through pain of layoffs.

[equalizer]

My hero of the week: Ken Chenault, CEO of American Express (AXP), The chairman and chief executive of American Express received compensation valued at $53.2 million in 2007, nearly double the $27.3 million he received in 2006, according to a regulatory filing Monday. The main driver behind the raise for the executive, Kenneth I. Chenault, was an increase in the stock and options awards. He received $42.8 million in stock awards in 2007 and an incentive stock option grant. For 2006, his stock awards were valued at $16.9 million. Mr. Chenault’s base salary in 2007 increased nearly 13 percent to $1.24 million, and he got $6.5 million in bonuses. Wonder why there are no negative bonuses if the company/stock tanks?? Stock does good, he get the credit. Stock tanks, its the economy, Piggs causing home prices crashes and litany of American Excuses.

He logs a lot of miles on the company’s corporate jet. According to the company’s proxy statement, he also received $405,375 worth of personal travel on the jet, and $132,019 in personal use of a company car.

Now he has to sacrifice people because you selfish bast**rds are not spending money or paying it back. Well, hope he set aside some money for Soprano type analyst to get through pain of layoffs.

[equalizer]

WSJ: “AMEX has been hurt by a slowdown in cardholder spending and rising losses and delinquencies in its fast-growing lending portfolio, which allows cardholders to carry a balance. To stem the losses, AmEx has been slashing credit lines and tightening its underwriting standards to a range of customers.
The company defended its strategy to expand its credit-card business even though those customers are responsible for the bulk of its woes, saying that it hasn’t lowered underwriting standards on these newer customers. “The quality of accounts that we’ve added in recent years is as strong as our traditional card members,” Mr. Chenault said.”
The company said it wrote off 5.3% of loans during the second quarter, up from 4.3% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the second quarter of 2007.

Looks like the new customers are causing defaults. Not as many new rich people as they expected and small businesses are feeling pain.

AmEx collects an average of 2.6% of customers’ bills, vs. about 2% levied by rivals. AmEx says merchants pay higher fees to gain access to its high-end customers.

Are there merchants who only take AMEX and not Visa/MC? These 2-2.6% fees are incredibly high in this electronic market. Heard that someone like Amazon wanted to come out without new payment card that would charge 1%, but these Visa/MC guys got special training from DeBeers to essentially lock market.

[equalizer]

WSJ: “AMEX has been hurt by a slowdown in cardholder spending and rising losses and delinquencies in its fast-growing lending portfolio, which allows cardholders to carry a balance. To stem the losses, AmEx has been slashing credit lines and tightening its underwriting standards to a range of customers.
The company defended its strategy to expand its credit-card business even though those customers are responsible for the bulk of its woes, saying that it hasn’t lowered underwriting standards on these newer customers. “The quality of accounts that we’ve added in recent years is as strong as our traditional card members,” Mr. Chenault said.”
The company said it wrote off 5.3% of loans during the second quarter, up from 4.3% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the second quarter of 2007.

Looks like the new customers are causing defaults. Not as many new rich people as they expected and small businesses are feeling pain.

AmEx collects an average of 2.6% of customers’ bills, vs. about 2% levied by rivals. AmEx says merchants pay higher fees to gain access to its high-end customers.

Are there merchants who only take AMEX and not Visa/MC? These 2-2.6% fees are incredibly high in this electronic market. Heard that someone like Amazon wanted to come out without new payment card that would charge 1%, but these Visa/MC guys got special training from DeBeers to essentially lock market.

[equalizer]

WSJ: “AMEX has been hurt by a slowdown in cardholder spending and rising losses and delinquencies in its fast-growing lending portfolio, which allows cardholders to carry a balance. To stem the losses, AmEx has been slashing credit lines and tightening its underwriting standards to a range of customers.
The company defended its strategy to expand its credit-card business even though those customers are responsible for the bulk of its woes, saying that it hasn’t lowered underwriting standards on these newer customers. “The quality of accounts that we’ve added in recent years is as strong as our traditional card members,” Mr. Chenault said.”
The company said it wrote off 5.3% of loans during the second quarter, up from 4.3% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the second quarter of 2007.

Looks like the new customers are causing defaults. Not as many new rich people as they expected and small businesses are feeling pain.

AmEx collects an average of 2.6% of customers’ bills, vs. about 2% levied by rivals. AmEx says merchants pay higher fees to gain access to its high-end customers.

Are there merchants who only take AMEX and not Visa/MC? These 2-2.6% fees are incredibly high in this electronic market. Heard that someone like Amazon wanted to come out without new payment card that would charge 1%, but these Visa/MC guys got special training from DeBeers to essentially lock market.

[equalizer]

WSJ: “AMEX has been hurt by a slowdown in cardholder spending and rising losses and delinquencies in its fast-growing lending portfolio, which allows cardholders to carry a balance. To stem the losses, AmEx has been slashing credit lines and tightening its underwriting standards to a range of customers.
The company defended its strategy to expand its credit-card business even though those customers are responsible for the bulk of its woes, saying that it hasn’t lowered underwriting standards on these newer customers. “The quality of accounts that we’ve added in recent years is as strong as our traditional card members,” Mr. Chenault said.”
The company said it wrote off 5.3% of loans during the second quarter, up from 4.3% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the second quarter of 2007.

Looks like the new customers are causing defaults. Not as many new rich people as they expected and small businesses are feeling pain.

AmEx collects an average of 2.6% of customers’ bills, vs. about 2% levied by rivals. AmEx says merchants pay higher fees to gain access to its high-end customers.

Are there merchants who only take AMEX and not Visa/MC? These 2-2.6% fees are incredibly high in this electronic market. Heard that someone like Amazon wanted to come out without new payment card that would charge 1%, but these Visa/MC guys got special training from DeBeers to essentially lock market.

[Author]

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