[EJ]

Could this be the team? The daughter is hot, can’t tell if she has blue eyes though. Del Mar is in their territory …

http://www.sandiego1realestatesource.com/

[EJ]

Could this be the team? The daughter is hot, can’t tell if she has blue eyes though. Del Mar is in their territory …

http://www.sandiego1realestatesource.com/

[EJ]

Could this be the team? The daughter is hot, can’t tell if she has blue eyes though. Del Mar is in their territory …

http://www.sandiego1realestatesource.com/

[EJ]

Could this be the team? The daughter is hot, can’t tell if she has blue eyes though. Del Mar is in their territory …

http://www.sandiego1realestatesource.com/

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I guess I misinterpreted the statement:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

It sounds like individuals … I agree a greater percentage of households in this age range will have incomes > $100k

About 30% of all households make more than 100k in SD county.
http://factfinder.census.gov/

About 20% of population is 20-30.
http://www.qolsandiego.net/PDF/table_SDCo_demograph.pdf

So assuming that 20-30 are at average incomes this means 6% of population is in that age range and making more than $100k. This is erring in benefit of your point … peak earning years are not until your 50’s.

There are several problems with assuming that this 6% has been saving and is ready to buy. What percent of this age group is married and wanting to buy? Overall, 50% of SD is married, I couldn’t find any marriage data by age but I would guess the percentage is much lower for 20-30 year olds (go to PB on the weekend). Anyhoo, assume 50% for lack of better data, now the contribution of HH in this age/income bracket who would be interested in buying is about 3% of the population.

Now the question is, how many of these people want to pay 300k for a small 2 bedroom apartment in UTC? Even with the conservative assumptions stated, I still don’t see much demand coming from that age group.

[Author]

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