[earlyretirement]

[quote=moneymaker][quote=paramount]The real crash hasn’t happened yet; although the 1%ers in CV/RSF and other wealthy coastal areas will not be impacted like the remaining 99%.

How long can the feds keep the rates at 0%?[/quote]

As long as the Chinese don’t go spending dollars wildly and as long as our T-bills/bonds aren’t downgraded.[/quote]

Exactly! In other words…..it can go on for a while….. No one knows when the music will stop. Just make sure you have a seat if/when the music stops.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=SD Realtor]You have to be more specific Josh. The short answer is no. Conditions are not favorable throughout the county compared to the past few years. Not for investment grade, not for owner occupancy grade. It also goes without saying I am talking about low or middle price tiers, not the 7 figure tiers.

Second, the low rates form a double whammy because investors have nowhere to put money. Do they choose an overbought stock market or an overbought real estate market? So now you have lots of investors buying, some seasoned, many not seasoned with regard to San Diego county and that is a bad recipe to create “favorable” conditions. I saw another home purchased at trustee sale for the same sales price as it was sold on the retail market back in 05. Prices will reach an equilibrium in the short term, maybe by the end of summer maybe the end of next summer, and then return to a much more subdued appreciation rate. Right now it is legging up fast and not a good place for buyers.[/quote]

I totally agree SD Realtor. On both the overbought levels of several investment opportunities out there.

I don’t think anyone should be rushing to buy anything. I think it’s different if you are buying something that plan to live in for the foreseeable future that you can comfortably afford and another to be jumping in on investment properties. Lots seem to be the latter picking up investment properties.

The horrible thing is for savers and retired that are getting pummeled and punished and earning anemic interest rates. I for one can’t wait for interest rates to go back up.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=UCGal][quote=paramount]This thread once again reminds me of the extreme greed found in San Diego, not to mention how out of touch and ruthless you 1%ers really are.[/quote]
I’m sorry you feel that way.
You’ve made similar comments in the past. I don’t consider myself a 1%er (probably safely in the 10% according to the census, though). But I am close to having a paid for house, and am hoping for an early retirement. But this was done the old fashioned way – spending less than I earn… driving old beater (paid for long ago) cars… bringing my lunch to work instead of eating out… having the same home furnishings I had 20 years ago… And tossing everything else in savings/investments.

It’s not about being greedy or ruthless. It’s about prioritizing what your goals are and making them happen.

You talk about greedy one percenters… and on the surface, you’d appear to be one… You drive a BMW, you own two houses… you have decent income…

It’s all about choices. If saving for the future is being greedy and ruthless… I guess I am greedy and ruthless.[/quote]

I totally agree with what you just posted UCGal! I also believe the term “1%er” is totally misused in society today. To be in the top 1% of all net worth in the USA you have to be worth around $9 million. (http://www.joshuakennon.com/how-much-money-does-it-take-to-be-in-the-top-1-of-wealth-and-net-worth-in-the-united-states/ )

I doubt that by that definition too many Piggs are in the 1% club.

Still, I don’t think there is ANYTHING wrong with being in the 1% club. I’m certainly not but I wish I was. I know many friends that are in the “1% club” and they aren’t greedy or ruthless. They are extremely hard workers, that saved and planned and made prudent and wise investment decisions over the past many decades. Many of them own their own businesses and are totally self-made.

People like this should be admired, not admonished. After all, this group is paying the vast majority of taxes in this country. (I’ll skip the debate whether they should be paying even more…)

I have had years where I guess I would be considered in the 1%ers in terms of salary. No way I am ashamed of that. Rather I’m very proud of that.

I graduated college with a six figure student loan tab. No one gave me anything. Lots of long hard hours.

I’m not sure how somehow people that have high net worths became evil, greedy or ruthless. Sure, there are some people out there that are greedy, ruthless and greedy but so far I haven’t read any thing like that on this site.

No offense but no one on this board so far that I’ve read sounds like they are flying around in their private jet. LOL.

I will debate and argue any day of the week anyone that tries to say responsible hard workers like this are “greedy, ruthless, etc”. It’s just not the case.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=spdrun]A rental property IS a productive investment, if kept in good condition. A property bought with expenses > income with the hope of future appreciation is a speculative investment. That was MY point.[/quote]

Personally I NEVER buy an investment property with the hopes of getting rich off the back end with capital appreciation. I will only buy an investment property if the monthly cash flow makes sense.

IF there is any potential capital appreciation I guess that is icing on the cake but I think too many people go into real estate thinking too much on the possibility of capital appreciation on the back end which is a mistake IMHO.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=SD Realtor]I agree about the day of reckoning. Make no mistake, it will come. Hard to say if it will be a high speed wipeout, like a full on collapse of the bond market, or a slow painful squeeze of the monetary supply contracting and rates rising over a 5 or 10 year span. Where I disagree with the doomsday sentiment is when. I do believe that we can kick the can down the road for many years. Maybe 2, maybe 5, maybe 20. If the world keeps wanting to play then there is no problem.[/quote]

I don’t think anyone would deny that there will be some severe “day of reckoning”. Definitely we won’t see it in the near term (of a few short years).

The USA is very fortunate that it’s essentially the World’s Reserve Currency. That buys the USA quite a bit of time. People don’t realize how much we depend on China. For all the talk about things changing and another currency taking over the US dollar. The reality is it won’t happen most likely for decades. And China is in a catch 22 position. They can’t afford for the US Dollar to fall apart. It just won’t happen in the short term. And it’s not like China doesn’t have it’s own problems to deal with. Because they most certainly do.

The reality is there really is no alternative. Forget Euros, Sterling, etc. Europe still has TONS of problems.

By no means am I saying that there aren’t problems on the horizon because I’m quite confident they are. But there are problems all over the world. I think the best you can do is think worst case scenarios out and be prepared.

For me, planning for worst case scenarios includes having real estate/assets/bank accounts/credit cards/etc. in some other countries besides the USA. As well, getting permanent residency status or even picking up another passport from another country is something that would be extremely wise.

No one likes thinking or planning for a worst case scenario problem but it’s probably wise to consider it.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=flyer]Just checking in from afar–(guess Piggington “is” an addiction:)

I don’t think any of us meant for our posts on this thread to be rude or inconsiderate–I know I certainly didn’t. I’m very much aware of what’s going on in the world for the majority of the population, and feel that none of us are immune to what might come our way.

I only brought any of this up with regard to property values for the purpose of making a comparison to today’s appreciation–to let people know how much it has changed over the years–nothing more.

I honestly don’t think the fact that a particular group of people happened to be at the right place at the right time with the right resources is a bad thing. Given the opportunity, I think most anyone would have taken advantage of those circumstances. It really had nothing to do with being ruthless or greedy–it was really more about luck and timing.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.[/quote]

EXACTLY. No one meant to be rude at all and I don’t think any reasonable person would consider them rude, insensitive, greedy, etc.

I certainly never came into any sudden windfall. Everything I have is due to very hard work, long hours and sacrifice.

I haven’t been on this board long but most people are very polite and informative. It’s one of the reasons I started posting more.

Being in the right place and right time is lucky. But also it takes action where many people wouldn’t have acted. That isn’t ruthless or greedy. It’s just intelligent, IMHO.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=paramount]This thread once again reminds me of the extreme greed found in San Diego, not to mention how out of touch and ruthless you 1%ers really are.[/quote]

Huh? Unless a bunch of posts got deleted or something just out of curiosity what are you referring to? Which part is “out of touch” and “ruthless”?

[earlyretirement]

Totally agree with you spdrun. Chicago and NYC definitely didn’t deserve to be on that list. I take all these “Top 10” type lists with a grain of salt. Half the time I think they list cities where they know people will shake their head and say “HUH”?

[earlyretirement]

Yep. You can’t keep printing endless supplies of money with NO consequences. It can last for a little while but there WILL be a day of reckoning and you just have to be prepared for it.

[earlyretirement]

Thanks amazing! Thanks so much for taking the time to share that information flyer. I guess it just goes to show you location, location, location. 🙂

I own many properties and someday I’d love to see the same thing on those properties, although I doubt they will ever see those kind of multiples.

Congrats!

[earlyretirement]

Yeah, the $400 range sounds more realistic. When we bought our house there was a tree planted close to the house and it was recommended to cut it down. I think our landscaper did it for about $400.

Like CAR, let me know if you want his number. He is a totally trustworthy and honest guy and probably would come and give you a free quote if you wanted.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=flyer]Actually, folks, my in-laws, and other family members purchased their homes in the $70K range. The homes we purchased in CV and RSF were actually more, even in the 80’s and 90’s, and we were able to do so because of a financial windfall + our great jobs, that came our way around that time.

The only reason I even brought any of this up was to make some comparisons to the market today. I realize much of it was luck and timing, and for that, I am very grateful.

I also understand exactly what TS mentioned–anything can happen![/quote]

Wow! That’s awesome they purchased so low! I truly believe that real estate is best as a LONG-TERM investment. I doubt I’ll ever see those kinds of multiples on the real estate that I own. Some have doubled but no way I’ll see the values increase X-fold like your relatives flyer.

Just out of curiosity, if you don’t mind sharing, what are the values of those properties today? How many X-fold increase have those properties have?

I always love hearing stories like this.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=timtoomey]Great info and commentary. I agree that if you have young kids the schools are great and it would be an investment in their future.

When you prepay the CFD, can you use that to sell for a higher price or is it just to save $$ if you plan to live in the house at length?[/quote]

Yes, we purposely decided to buy where we did because we have young kids and the schools are excellent in this area. We weren’t crazy about paying Mello Roos taxes but I felt it was well worth it.

I don’t regret my decision to live where we live for one second and in fact we wake up almost every day so happy we decided to buy where we did. The location is GREAT, the weather is perfect. We avoid the marine layering of nearby Del Mar yet the temperatures are really great and don’t get too hot like once you go further inland. We are literally about 10 minutes from the beach.

I honestly believe that Santaluz is one of the best lifestyle communities in all of Southern California. Nothing like this will ever be duplicated so close to the coast again. We looked at some houses at The Crosby and I MUCH preferred Santaluz.

I didn’t pre-pay the CFD taxes because of any possibility to sell the house more easily in the future. Quite the contrary. I paid them off because we plan to stay in the house for the foreseeable future until my kids are out of high school. They are only 3 and 4 years old now and we probably will have more kids.

And to be honest, even when they graduate, I don’t plan to sell this house. Either we will stay in it for a few years longer after they graduate or I’ll hold it as an investment property and rent it out. I have NO doubt at all we will have NO problem renting it out either on a long-term lease or via a furnished short term luxury rental property. We spent a small fortune furnishing and renovating it and I’m sure any potential renter (long term or short-term) would love it.

Also, important to consider is BOTH of the CFD’s that we had were already refinanced at lower interest rates. With interest rates so low it’s not likely they will be able to refinance even lower. So felt this was a good time to pay it off.

Under those circumstances, completely pre-paying the Mello Roos taxes was just a smart financial decision and a no brainer, IMHO. As mentioned, one of those wasn’t going to be paid off until at least 2041. The other not at least until 2030. Once you pay it off, it ends your CFD obligations forever. Even if they extend the pay off date. From a pure numbers side considering our situation, it was a wise investment of $61,000 to forever rid ourselves of this obligation.

We posted quite a bit about it on this link if you want to read more about it:

http://piggington.com/paying_off_mello_roos

Also, with this Ronald McDonald House CHARITY raffle it’s very important to note that not everyone buys these just because they want to win a house. It’s a great cause and they do wonderful things with the money. Sure, it’s not tax deductible but I’d rather spend a few hundred dollars donating to a good cause vs. putting it on a roulette wheel in Vegas. I think it’s very important to distinguish between the two.

My wife and I donate to several good causes. Many times not even for the tax deduction but because they are good causes and we know great things will be done with the money. The same can’t be said for Vegas.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=timtoomey]This is the house I am comparing the estimated MR and HOA fees

http://www.northcountyluxuryhomes.com/idx/residential/130005303/details.html

Is this a reasonable comparison? Also, how long does the MR go on for in that neck of the woods?[/quote]

Well, just looking at the property tax records it looks like in the Crosby they have these CFD’s below. $7077 per year on the Mello Roos taxes.

You can check out how long they are scheduled here: http://208.179.148.84/tax_charges.aspx

SOLANA BCH CFD2000-1 858-794-7118 1540.50
RSF CSD-CFD#1 760-479-4150 5537.68

I live in the same zipcode 92127 as those houses but I live in Santaluz not The Crosby so my CFD’s are different. One was scheduled to go on until 2030 and the other until 2041 and keep in mind these can get extended.

I opted to prepay off my Mello Roos and glad I did. No one can tell YOU if it’s worth it for you to live in a MR area and pay them. That will be for you to decide. I found them well worth it as I have young kids and the school district is excellent so it’s well worth it to me vs. sending them to private schools. But it may not for you.

Personally, I always thought anyone buying a multimillion dollar house if they have to worry about the CFD taxes they probably can’t truly afford it. In the grand scheme of things they aren’t too much relative to the cost/value of your home.

Does anyone know the APN or address of this McDonald’s House?

[earlyretirement]

[quote=bearishgurl]
I’ve seen a couple of handfuls of posters on this board that fall into this category, ER. Here, a few actually believed that SD County properties in prime coastal zip codes would eventually be “half off” if they just waited long enough, lol.

If you try to knock some sense into them, you are accused of being a “permabull,” a “pollyanna,” a “realtard,” or worse, a “NAR lackey.”

We haven’t heard from some of these Piggs in awhile who were waiting for bargain-basement prices on the coast. It’s very possible that some decided to suspend their search or ended up moving away.[/quote]

I haven’t read this site long enough to know the personalities like other sites I’ve posted on. It’s only recently that I started posting more on this site. I enjoy some of the personalities and I find this site has some really intelligent posters. I’ve met a few of the Piggington posters in real life and so far all have been really articulate, intelligent and all around good guys.

BG, I wouldn’t take too much offense at what someone anonymous says on a message board. I’ve been posting on various message boards since the Internet started and one thing I’ve learned is many people will say things and act much different on these anonymous boards and some of them would never act this way or say things to your face in real life.

Back in 2004/2005/2006 I told anyone that would listen that the real estate market was going to crash in the USA. I told them all the reasons why once I started taking a good look what the derivatives market was doing and how these financial companies were packaging up this toxic debt and selling it off.

I liquidated my USA real estate portfolio in 2004 (admittedly a few years early) and even moved out of the USA.

I was accused by many people of being an idiot. Sure property prices did go up more for a few years. After all, it’s difficult to catch the absolute bottoms and absolute tops. For a few years people kept going on and on about how real estate was going to go up forever.

A funny thing. Once the market crashed, these people totally disappeared. The people that kept posting how it was “easy money” buying in Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Southern California just vanished once the market crashed.

I also know people on the other side that kept thinking prices would fall forever. I didn’t follow this board back then so I don’t know the ones calling for prices to fall to 50% more in Coastal California but I certainly remember on sites like Patrick.net where several people posted things would keep falling, etc.

I didn’t enter the USA real estate market again until mid 2011 when I figured prices were at a reasonable price relative to rents. I only wish I bought more then. But I’m not stressed as there will probably be more buying opportunities and chances to get real estate cheap again.

I moved back to the USA in 2011. People like to rag on our government or the USA or say that things are going to hell. But I honestly do believe our best days are still ahead of us. After living outside of the USA for several years you begin to appreciate what we have here in the USA and the quality of life, lack of red tape, efficiency, and safety.

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