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DWCAP
ParticipantI disagree with your numbers.
65% of the population owns its own home, but 1/3 or so dont carry morgages. I wouldnt be suprised to find the vast majority of these people bought their houses decades ago, paid them off, and have no intention on moving.
Classic example, my grandparents. They have lived in the same house for nearly 30 years, dont have a morgage, and are not going anywhere. They couldnt give a rats ass what the house is valued at. Hell, they prob wouldnt mind it falling, cause then their property taxes would be lower (no they dont live in CA). I include some people who carry stupidly low morgaes with this group. When you owe 15k on a 250k house, you are in the ‘no morgage group’ when it comes to this.
-I would say, excuding bubble state mentalities who are constant permabulls, no more than 40% of the population REALLY care what their house is worth. Most of them are people who have purchased in the last 10 years or so.The Bottom 25% totally do care what prices are. These are the subprime folks, the ones who took the worst loans and dumbest risks. They want lower prices so they can afford to buy something.
-I would exclude perhaps the bottom 15%, but that other 10% has dreams.I wont fight you on the ‘never want to buy crowd’, some people really dont care. (live in a VAN down by the RIVER…) Actually a buddy of mine fits this grouup. He was gifted the house by his adopted father at 24 when he re-married. As long as he can come up with the property taxes and utilitiy bills, the rest is gravy.
So population wise, i’d guess:
45% want it higher,
30% want it lower,
25% dont give a flying rats ass.Thing is, BUISNESS’s are almost all based on higher housing prices. Home builders and their countless subcontracters, REagents, Brokers and banks, Home repair/updaters, Home depots/lowes, trades workers (carpenters, plumbers etc) all do better with rising house prices. Add in the school districts and government programs dependent upon increasing property tax revienue, and it is by far and away a BUISNESS preference for increasing house prices.
As ususal, follow the money and you will find why our policy is as it is.
ParticipantMy GF is the head of a small lab here in SD. She reciently had to post a part time job, thinking of like a UCSD student, to do clerical work and maybe help out around the lab with things like shipping and storage of boxes etc etc.
Anyways here is a snip of an email I just got from her about it.
‘oh and the search for UCSD interns continue, so funny [coworker] is not so threatened at today’s candidates cuz she says they’re not as hot as the ones yesterday. Dude, we got more applicants! 2 both graduated from law school but can’t find a job.’
Made me think of this thread.
ParticipantMy GF is the head of a small lab here in SD. She reciently had to post a part time job, thinking of like a UCSD student, to do clerical work and maybe help out around the lab with things like shipping and storage of boxes etc etc.
Anyways here is a snip of an email I just got from her about it.
‘oh and the search for UCSD interns continue, so funny [coworker] is not so threatened at today’s candidates cuz she says they’re not as hot as the ones yesterday. Dude, we got more applicants! 2 both graduated from law school but can’t find a job.’
Made me think of this thread.
ParticipantMy GF is the head of a small lab here in SD. She reciently had to post a part time job, thinking of like a UCSD student, to do clerical work and maybe help out around the lab with things like shipping and storage of boxes etc etc.
Anyways here is a snip of an email I just got from her about it.
‘oh and the search for UCSD interns continue, so funny [coworker] is not so threatened at today’s candidates cuz she says they’re not as hot as the ones yesterday. Dude, we got more applicants! 2 both graduated from law school but can’t find a job.’
Made me think of this thread.
ParticipantMy GF is the head of a small lab here in SD. She reciently had to post a part time job, thinking of like a UCSD student, to do clerical work and maybe help out around the lab with things like shipping and storage of boxes etc etc.
Anyways here is a snip of an email I just got from her about it.
‘oh and the search for UCSD interns continue, so funny [coworker] is not so threatened at today’s candidates cuz she says they’re not as hot as the ones yesterday. Dude, we got more applicants! 2 both graduated from law school but can’t find a job.’
Made me think of this thread.
ParticipantMy GF is the head of a small lab here in SD. She reciently had to post a part time job, thinking of like a UCSD student, to do clerical work and maybe help out around the lab with things like shipping and storage of boxes etc etc.
Anyways here is a snip of an email I just got from her about it.
‘oh and the search for UCSD interns continue, so funny [coworker] is not so threatened at today’s candidates cuz she says they’re not as hot as the ones yesterday. Dude, we got more applicants! 2 both graduated from law school but can’t find a job.’
Made me think of this thread.
ParticipantI still think the bottom wont come in until morgage rates start to rise higher than about 5.75%. That is a full point above the low, and where alot of people will be forced to start recognizing that rates will go up. Then the ARMs that are living on borrowed time will hit the market and you will see the ‘flushing’.
Dont hold your breath. Bernakie seems to have not learned anything from the last time they tried to use accomidative financial policy to fix unemployment. He’ll default lower rather than higher and blow another bubble and not see it coming.
ParticipantI still think the bottom wont come in until morgage rates start to rise higher than about 5.75%. That is a full point above the low, and where alot of people will be forced to start recognizing that rates will go up. Then the ARMs that are living on borrowed time will hit the market and you will see the ‘flushing’.
Dont hold your breath. Bernakie seems to have not learned anything from the last time they tried to use accomidative financial policy to fix unemployment. He’ll default lower rather than higher and blow another bubble and not see it coming.
ParticipantI still think the bottom wont come in until morgage rates start to rise higher than about 5.75%. That is a full point above the low, and where alot of people will be forced to start recognizing that rates will go up. Then the ARMs that are living on borrowed time will hit the market and you will see the ‘flushing’.
Dont hold your breath. Bernakie seems to have not learned anything from the last time they tried to use accomidative financial policy to fix unemployment. He’ll default lower rather than higher and blow another bubble and not see it coming.
ParticipantI still think the bottom wont come in until morgage rates start to rise higher than about 5.75%. That is a full point above the low, and where alot of people will be forced to start recognizing that rates will go up. Then the ARMs that are living on borrowed time will hit the market and you will see the ‘flushing’.
Dont hold your breath. Bernakie seems to have not learned anything from the last time they tried to use accomidative financial policy to fix unemployment. He’ll default lower rather than higher and blow another bubble and not see it coming.
ParticipantI still think the bottom wont come in until morgage rates start to rise higher than about 5.75%. That is a full point above the low, and where alot of people will be forced to start recognizing that rates will go up. Then the ARMs that are living on borrowed time will hit the market and you will see the ‘flushing’.
Dont hold your breath. Bernakie seems to have not learned anything from the last time they tried to use accomidative financial policy to fix unemployment. He’ll default lower rather than higher and blow another bubble and not see it coming.
Participant[quote=EconProf]SS and Medicare were Ponzi schemes from the beginning and are only now being recognized as such. They were perfect for politicians because they granted immediate benefits, or the promise thereof, and hid the true cost or pushed it into the distant future.
SS allows individuals to contractually count on an annuity for as long as one lives, to be supplemented, or not, by one’s savings and investments. The cost in its first few decades was miniscule–one or two percent of one’s gross, and only up to a ceiling of a low annual income. To further hide the true cost, the government makes the employer pay a like amount for each employee, whose true incidence studies show is a correspondingly lower pay. The full burden is about 13 percent lower pay. Think of what kind of retirement you could have if you invested that percent of your gross every working year up to age 67.
Like so much that government does, it robs people of the incentive to save, to plan and control their own future. It is actuarily unsound in so many ways, and the current recession makes obsolete all recent projections as to when it will self-destruct.
If you are in your twenties or thirties, you are soooo screwed. The greedy geezers, of which I am one, will make you pay taxes up the gazooo to pay for it, then when you are elderly, there will be nothing left.
When I taught economics in the 80s and 90s, I would devote one full lecture to the true nature of SS, and it was always a revelation to the students. I only hope intergenerational warfare is not the result–there is every reason for today’s young workers to be very angry.[/quote]I am a young working male in my 20’s, and I have 3 living grandparents. I view SS and Medicare as government enforced care for my grandparents. No way in hell will it be there for me or my generation, atleast nothing like what it currently is.
Participant[quote=EconProf]SS and Medicare were Ponzi schemes from the beginning and are only now being recognized as such. They were perfect for politicians because they granted immediate benefits, or the promise thereof, and hid the true cost or pushed it into the distant future.
SS allows individuals to contractually count on an annuity for as long as one lives, to be supplemented, or not, by one’s savings and investments. The cost in its first few decades was miniscule–one or two percent of one’s gross, and only up to a ceiling of a low annual income. To further hide the true cost, the government makes the employer pay a like amount for each employee, whose true incidence studies show is a correspondingly lower pay. The full burden is about 13 percent lower pay. Think of what kind of retirement you could have if you invested that percent of your gross every working year up to age 67.
Like so much that government does, it robs people of the incentive to save, to plan and control their own future. It is actuarily unsound in so many ways, and the current recession makes obsolete all recent projections as to when it will self-destruct.
If you are in your twenties or thirties, you are soooo screwed. The greedy geezers, of which I am one, will make you pay taxes up the gazooo to pay for it, then when you are elderly, there will be nothing left.
When I taught economics in the 80s and 90s, I would devote one full lecture to the true nature of SS, and it was always a revelation to the students. I only hope intergenerational warfare is not the result–there is every reason for today’s young workers to be very angry.[/quote]I am a young working male in my 20’s, and I have 3 living grandparents. I view SS and Medicare as government enforced care for my grandparents. No way in hell will it be there for me or my generation, atleast nothing like what it currently is.
Participant[quote=EconProf]SS and Medicare were Ponzi schemes from the beginning and are only now being recognized as such. They were perfect for politicians because they granted immediate benefits, or the promise thereof, and hid the true cost or pushed it into the distant future.
SS allows individuals to contractually count on an annuity for as long as one lives, to be supplemented, or not, by one’s savings and investments. The cost in its first few decades was miniscule–one or two percent of one’s gross, and only up to a ceiling of a low annual income. To further hide the true cost, the government makes the employer pay a like amount for each employee, whose true incidence studies show is a correspondingly lower pay. The full burden is about 13 percent lower pay. Think of what kind of retirement you could have if you invested that percent of your gross every working year up to age 67.
Like so much that government does, it robs people of the incentive to save, to plan and control their own future. It is actuarily unsound in so many ways, and the current recession makes obsolete all recent projections as to when it will self-destruct.
If you are in your twenties or thirties, you are soooo screwed. The greedy geezers, of which I am one, will make you pay taxes up the gazooo to pay for it, then when you are elderly, there will be nothing left.
When I taught economics in the 80s and 90s, I would devote one full lecture to the true nature of SS, and it was always a revelation to the students. I only hope intergenerational warfare is not the result–there is every reason for today’s young workers to be very angry.[/quote]I am a young working male in my 20’s, and I have 3 living grandparents. I view SS and Medicare as government enforced care for my grandparents. No way in hell will it be there for me or my generation, atleast nothing like what it currently is.
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