[docteur]

PD – This might get a little out there but stick with me here.

I agree with you that from your perspective there are random events a person can’t control, can’t predict and which can’t be explained but given my perspective on life, random events simply don’t exist because I create those random events simply by the choice I made to be there and participate in the experience of them happening.

Unless I show up, “random” events don’t happen to me. So, the really funny thing is, whenever anything good or bad happens to me (what you call luck), I’m always right there when it happens. Nobody put me there but me.

So, in my view, I created whatever happened, to happen and when the illusion is that it is out of control, can’t be predicted or explained, in my world it always can be because I created it to be that way.

I say “I did that” a lot, regardless of what happens and oftentimes I surprise myself (much to my delight, regardless of the circumstances, “good or bad”).

To me, that’s the cosmic joke. By being totally out of control (the illusion) we are in control, without any effort whatsoever except the simple act of taking responsibility (the ability to respond).

For me, all life is cause and effect, because as soon as we make the choice that puts us in the “random” situation, it it can’t be “random” anymore because at some point, we made the choice to be there.

But hey, if it works for you to believe in luck and it’s useful in your life, then by all means, keep choosing that belief. I respect that. I am all for doing what works.

Now, having said that, I invite you to live for one week in the belief that you are 100% responsible for everything in your life, your world, your universe. Believe it with all your heart. Believe that you created it all and that you are totally responsible for the way it is turning out. Have fun with it.

Make believe that is your belief. Just pretend, like a child would, that you are the Master and Commander of your universe. Then watch what happens (without judgement).

When you take total responsibility for everything that happens to you during that week, for everything happening on the planet and from an even larger perspective, for everything that happens in the entire universe, something very interesting will start to happen (at least in my experience). You begin to laugh more, you lighten up and simply marvel at what you have created and what you are going to create.

Just pretend (because it’s all pretend anyway, nobody really knows). Watch how the feeling of power grows inside of you (kids are great at this). I love being around children because they have nothing on being really powerful. They say “I did that” a lot, regardless of what happens because I believe, in their purest sense; they know they are the ones creating their experiences, their lives, their universe.

Just do it for one week. Watch how the ownership of your life changes and then if it works better for you to hold that belief, change your belief. If not, well then stick with the good luck, bad luck, life is random in some instances theory. It has just as much validity as any other belief.

Believing in luck just never worked for me (that’s why I never gamble and rarely predict), because I always felt like to do that was to give up the power given to me from another source (God, Nature, Supreme Being…whatever you want to call it).

So I pretended that I was made of the stuff of whence I believe I came (the source of it all, pure intention, total responsibility, and unlimited power — you know, the force).

And then something really wonderful happened. I saw my life in a totally differnt way and it worked perfectly, regardless of my circumstances, which didn’t change one whit, but my perception of them changed a lot.

And because at that instant I took total responsibility for creating it the way it was (and the way it wasn’t), I figured if I could do that, well then heck, I could create it the way I wanted it to be, which I am in the process of doing everyday. My life is now pure magic, which is something I do believe in!

That simple process, of shifting my beliefs and pretending to be 100% responsible for it all, put me in my present state of mind. And now it’s my core belief. It makes my life real simple — good or bad — I did it. I get to own it. I created it. It’s totally my responsibility. Wow, I get to do it all and I get to respond again and again to what I have created and live in the process of constantly improving on it!

Life is funny, the older you get, the less you know until at some point you simply (as Fritz Perls said): “Lose your mind and come to your senses.”

As far as I can tell, we are the only creatures on the planet that believe in luck (well some of us do). I guess that’s why I’ve never had a dog named “Lucky” —

[docteur]

Pay off the truck. Keep the boat. Don’t hold onto debt because of a credit rating.

Stay in the moment, enjoy your life. Because nobody knows what’s going to happen next. Nobody.

If we crash and it gets really ugly, well then being on the water will be even more important to you than it is now.

And, you will have two free and clear assets that you can use to generate income or sell/refinance if need be to generate cash. (Many years ago during a real estate crash several of my friends used their cars, boats and even jewelry for down payments on homes and apartment buildings).

What is the point in earning money if you can’t enjoy it? You are enjoying the fruits of your labor now. That’s a great place to be. Stay there.

Start planning from this point forward how to take advantage of a crash (or no crash, or something else you can imagine) and keep that which gives you pleasure.

Because believe me, a happy disposition and wonderful friends are 90% of life’s mastery and if you’ve got those two truly handled, nothing but good will come your way.

[docteur]

I do not believe in luck. Good or bad. Nor do I believe in fate or destiny.

The circumstances you are born into have nothing to do with how your life turns out (there are plenty of people born into wealth who die in poverty and plenty of people born into poverty who die wealthy – the world abounds with these type of stories).

I do believe in intention and taking responsibility for one’s life, good or bad. I believe in holding the “right” beliefs, ones that create what you desire in your life.

It is useful for me to believe that I am 100% responsible for my particular set of circumstances, regardless of what they are at any particular point in time. That way, I am able to take full and total responsibility (as opposed to being a victim) for my life, which is a very powerful position to operate from.

It isn’t about control, to the contrary, it is about relinquishing control. It’s about accepting our own particular creation, our experience of life and reveling in it.

I am truly amazed at both the “good” and the “bad” I can create in my life. I believe I created the time and place of my birth as I will also create the time and place of my death. I also believe I create everything that happens between those two experiences (our life).

Taking that belief a step further, it follows that had I been in the World Trade Center when those planes hit or in New Orleans when the flood waters rose and took my business, I would have to take full responsibility for being in that place at that time, regardless of the circumstances and eventual outcome, because I put myself there by my actions, my choices in life.

What this does for me, is it allows me to live totally free and not be at the effect of my circumstances, so I can accept them willingly, because I created them. I can embrace my life, regardless of what it looks like. By living this way, fear disappears. I become the master in my universe.

If ever I want to know my intentions, I simply look at the results I have produced. If I don’t like the results, I analyze them and then change my intentions. I am therefore free to choose to change my circumstances by creating a new set of choices.

So, living that way, holding that belief, I am able to avoid good or bad luck (especially since I do not believe in their existence) and simply live with that which I have created. There is no fate, no luck, just what I intend, just the results of my actions. (And admittedly, oftentimes what we think we consciously intend is just the opposite of the results produced).

What’s the point in holding a belief that doesn’t serve you? Believing in bad luck, fate, destiny or randomness puts you at the effect of life, as opposed to being the cause of it.

Einstein once said the most important choice you can make in life is how you view the world. Either it is friendly and supports your purpose (you are at cause) or it is dangerous and thwarts your purpose (you are at effect).

Life is cause and effect. I choose to be cause in my life(responsible); some choose to be effect in their life (victim).

After all, life is simply the result of the choices you make. Believe what you want but believe that which supports your own particular vision for your individual life. Trust your choices. Embrace your life and everything that’s in it, good or bad. After all, you created it.

[docteur]

I have to agree with sdduuuude and Chris J.

This belief that wealth is created through luck really makes me bristle because I have intentionally created great wealth in my life – twice.

I am a multimillionaire and I wrote out a plan almost 20 years ago, precisely how I was going to achieve that wealth and keep it after I got it. I confidently moved forward with my plan because I looked at every contingency I could at the time.

I did not miss anything in my life; to the contrary I enjoyed every minute of it (and still am) because I believed the outcome of my planning was a given and I had all the time in the world to enjoy life.

So, I plan 99% of the time and implement/act 1% of the time. Creating wealth has taught me the most important characteristic of the wealthy – Patience.

There was no luck involved. Period.

I was wealthy once before from scratch and also had a plan that worked. Where I failed the first time was I had no plan on how to keep that wealth and lost it making stupid investments. This time I have both sides of the “wealth plan” and it’s progressing just fine.

So I call BS on the randomness of wealth. Sure luck is out there but (and this concept may be hard for some to grasp) you create your own “luck” by careful planning so that you are prepared when you create it. (I would use the word “opportunity” in place of luck).

I read an article a while back which I referenced in an earlier post which stated that people who survive disasters (plane crashes, car wrecks, hurricanes, etc.) have a plan in place BEFORE the disastter strikes. They “rehearse” several scenarios so if/when it happens, they are prepared. Those folks survive disasters, time and time again and when asked if it was luck, they say No, I was prepared.

Prosperity works the same way. You rehearse and plan until the perfect scenario comes your way (or by being ready for it, you recognize it/create it to show up). Then you are ready, confidently prepared and you jump on it with both feet.

That’s why a guy like Warren Buffett consistently, year after year, makes money. He waits for the right opportunity PATIENTLY and when it comes along, he grabs it.

That’s why wealthy people can make money in several different, unrelated ventures. The core beliefs and actions taken to create wealth are basically the same.

Like Chris J says, he only takes the trade/puts on a position when all the varilables line up perfectly. Creating wealth is no different.

Luck my ass. Saying luck creates the wealth is just an excuse for someone who doesn’t plan. My favorite saying is “Those who fail to plan, plan to fail.”

By the way, is the author of that book a millionaire? If he isn’t, he’s probably planning on becoming one after all the folks who believe luck plays a part in becoming wealthy buy his book. Heck, if it’s luck. Just play the lotto everyday…

My advice, don’t waste your money and buy into a belief that doesn’t serve you. Plan a lot, implement a little, enjoy your life, living in the belief that you will prevail and wealth will come your way. Success leaves clues.

Luck is a cop out.

[docteur]

Amen brother.

[docteur]

Hi PD – Funny, you and I are very similar. I also have no debt, pay cash for my cars (although I do buy new and hold them for a long time), am very frugal (it’s my Scotch heritage at work) and I also do my best to purchase stocks low (I am mostly a value investor) and also like to sell high (which I have found is difficult at best).

The main difference between you and I is I do not observe the current real estate market in quite the same way as you do and because of that, I operate in quite a different way. My perspective is one of curiosity and awe at where we have arrived in the property markets. It’s completely new territory and I am excited by the possibilities.

I believe there are many outcomes to a particular set of circumstances and history is a valuable guide but not a predictor of what those outcomes can/will be. Again, I simply observe and follow but never try to base my actions on what I think is going to happen, because I have never been correct operating from that position.

But both of us can achieve our objectives (home ownership), we simply are taking different paths because we have have different considerations driving our choices. You want to make the right financial moves and right now, home ownership doesn’t look like a good one. The way I operate is I can’t make the right financial moves unless I feel secure and stable and that equates to owning my own home.

Different strokes for different folks. And that is what makes this life so interesting!

[docteur]

Hi Powayseller – Right now if renting works for you, I think that’s wonderful. However, I don’t see coastal values falling 50% over the next five years and don’t know if I would base my entire real estate strategy on that notion.

Certain areas may see that kind of correction but in my opinion, values along the coast will not correct to that extent, if at all. And if it doesn’t matter to you if you eventually end up on the coast or not, well then the choices you have made are fine.

I see coastal California values (especially in San Diego) staying flat or even increasing a bit over the next several years. The west coast is the edge of America and there is a lot of wealth chasing a very limited amount of livable land near the coast (especially in th prime coastal areas), not to mention the tremendous pressure by environmentalists to limit development in the coastal zones, which will continue to exert upward pressure on values.

I’ve lived on the coast my entire life (58 years) and I have never seen a correction that even comes close to 50%. To the contrary, I have seen values steadily increase, albeit very slowly in some years and dramatically in others but overall, a steady increase.

Secondly, at this point in his life, my son plans on attending UCSD (my alma mater) for his undergraduate studies as well as medical school. He is just 16 but has traveled extensively around the world, visiting many beautiful places and he has come to his own conclusion that he wants to live in San Diego, where most of his extended family also resides (several dozen realatives).

Both my parents were native San Diegans and my wife’s parents have lived here for more than 35 years. So he has a lot of history in San Diego as well.

I honestly believe he will marry a local woman and be blissfully happy here. If he decides he wants to live someplace else, I will totally support him in that decision.

I have always taught him to think for himself and be an independent spirit and he is very mature for his age. But I honestly think he would be hard pressed to find a nicer area to raise a family than San Diego, all factors considered.

About five years ago, after returning from an extensive summer cruise abroad he told me that he was convinced that he lived in the best city in the best state in the best country in the world. He hasn’t waivered from that belief since making that statement and is excited by the prospect of raising a family here.

Also, all the things that are important to him as recreation (swimming, sailing and surfing) are available right here in his hometown (he is also a San Diego native). His is pretty engrained in the San Diego (California) outdoor lifestyle. He has spent a lot of time traveling in Florida and on the east coast in general but the humidity is not something that agrees with him (or me).

I feel confident that he will create his life so that he can live where he chooses to and a job will be secondary to his choice of domicile. Could that change? Sure. And if it does, well, I guess I’ll just change with it.

[docteur]

That’s encouraging. Thanks.

[docteur]

Deadzone – Home ownership is a very important concept, especially to “old school” folks like me, who want to raise a family in a stable, unchanging environment.

And I must disagree with you, I have several friends who live in homes that their parents and even their grandparents have lived in. I plan on passing my home on to my 16 year-old son, who is excited at the prospect of raising his family in our home, which is full of wonderful memories of his childhood.

He understands that this house is just as much his as it is mine, because he is a participant in making this house a home. There is a continuim in life that is very important to us and passing this home onto our son will perpetuate that ideal.

Also, I might add, that in several of San Diego’s older neighborhoods like La Jolla, Point Loma and Mission Hills, several people own their own homes outright, not to mention areas like Rancho Santa Fe or the North County Coastal areas, where lots of folks have paid cash for their homes over the years.

*Powayseller, are there any statistics on the percentage of homes in San Diego owned free and clear? If anyone could find that one, it would be you.

And lastly, your final paragraph is absolutely accurate. There is no gain, nor any loss, until and when you sell. If you never sell, you never lose or profit. Again, it’s all in what your motivation is when owning a home. Mine is permanence, stability and an enduring sense of family.

[docteur]

sdrealtor – it is very possible that there are cultural differences. However, I am not trying to resolve differences in opinion, I am enjoying exploring those differences. How we feel about our homes is part of the process of communication and I agree with you, there is no right or wrong, only different perspectives.

[docteur]

PD – If you did not buy, then I guess it wasn’t your dream home after all. If you really want to get clear on what your intentions are, look at the results you produce. Pretty simple.

If you are perfectly clear on what you want, when it shows up, I promise you, you will buy it. Obviously that home didn’t match your picture of your dream home (“there were a few negatives”).

I think “taking the emotion out of it” and not making an offer because you “think the price is going to drop” are simply justifications for not purchasing and they are not good or bad, they are just part of the process of finding exactly what we want.

I believe you didn’t buy the house, regardless of your reasons, because it simply wasn’t the right one, it “was not perfect.”

When my dream home showed up, I bought it and price, or the state of the market, or whatever considerations I may have had prior to my purchase disappeared because I got exactly what I wanted. It matched my vision perfectly.

And I believe in time, you will also get exactly what you want and the state of the market, or the investment potential of the home, yada, yada, yada will not matter because that house (wherever it is) will be the one house you have to own.

[docteur]

Powayseller what I said was this:

“I think we have to look at exactly where we want to live, how we want to live and then determine if the price someone is asking is worth what we are willing to pay.”

I am not saying everyone should own a home. It’s a choice we all make based on personal preferences and financial considerations. For you, at this point in time, the savings are more important than the ownership, for me it’s just the opposite.

I admit I am completely emotionally attached to my home and everything in it. I love where I live and I have never treated my home as an “asset.” I never list it on a net worth statement because it is not something I would ever risk losing. It is where I live and it is “my dream.”

I grew up in rented homes and there was always the fear that we could have the rent raised or be booted out at will. So that motivated me to be in control of my destiny. For some, that fear is minimal and renting is fine.

Lastly, I would mind losing $ 1 Million in equity but the probability of that happening in my experience is very, very small. And equity is not lost or gained until you sell and convert it to cash.

I would also mind losing my “home” back to a landlord who decided he wanted to move back in or raise the rent to a level I couldn’t afford, forcing me to move.

I guess I have to ask the question, if finances were not an issue, would you buy or continue to rent?

[docteur]

Hi PD – I once had a friend who was very caustic in his communications (he died a few years ago and a lot of people said it was because of his attitude). He actually was my best friend for more than 45 years and everyone called him the “dark cloud.”

But I really appreciated this guy because he had the courage to always speak up and take a contrarian position in the face of huge opposition. His tone was often negative but he was always interesting and backed up his opinions with data that was carefully researched and analyzed. He was always giving of himself in a way that most didn’t understand but I knew that his true intentions were – to share himself with others so that they might benefit from his knowledge of a particular situation.

He used to call me pathologically optimistic. He took issue with everything I said and I knew that he constantly tested me because he cared about me as a friend and didn’t want me to make a mistake or put my finances at risk by making a bad decision. We both had our own individual successes but with a totally different perspective on life. Oftentimes his perspective was very helpful to me and impacted my decisions on many important issues in my life thorough the years.

He taught me something very valuable: People express their opinions and beliefs in many different ways and with varying degrees of emotion but the bottom line is this: true communication is the appreciation of differences. We have to weed through all of our pre-determined notions about how something is being said and really “listen” to what is being said.

I honestly did not interpret sdduuuudes tone as snide. I read it as more a challenge to forum readers to test their own beliefs. And regardless of our interpretation of his “tone”, I think his intent was clear: to assist us in making more informed decisions and to remain open to what others have to say. Then, once all our considerations are out of the way, we can come to our own conclusions and take whatever action is necessary, if any at all.

You said we don’t know how far down it (real estate) will go…nor do we know if it will go down at all. The probability is high that we will see a correction, but I am not willing to make a prediction based on what is happening in certain neighborhoods around the county at this point in time.

Just because a highly speculative condo market crashes downtown does not mean that custom homes in a gated community in North County will follow suit. Just because one neighborhood of a certain priced home is seeing 10% price reductions in sales prices does not mean another area in a different price strata will do the same.

Real estate is a local market with many variables impacting value and pricing. People with financial means will opt for those areas that appeal to their own set of particular wants and needs and will not react out of fear or greed.

From my perspective, this bubble will burst when many homes across several price ranges start to sell for less than what they sold for on the last go around.

Just because a home sells for less than a comparable one sold for a month earlier (but both sellers make a profit) does not necessarily mean the bubble is bursting. It means the market is adjusting and a 10% or even a 20% correction is not uncommon in certain markets after a run up like we have seen over the last several years. When people start losing money on a regular basis, then I will look closely at what type of trend is evolving.

So far, in certain neighborhoods in San Diego, I see a slowdown but in my experience, those are also areas where people bought at the top of the market were speculating or took on loan products they probably should have avoided.

In areas where buyers put down lots of equity or even paid cash, where the buyers have secure jobs and strong fallback positions, I see absolutely no erosion in value because the conditions driving those sales are totally different that maybe another area that is experiencing weakness.

For many years, I have been looking for a home in a particular neighborhood, close to where I grew up. Even with the huge increase in prices over the last several years, nobody in that neighborhood ever seems to sell. Families pass on their homes to their children because the location is so desirable and the particular ambiance could never be reproduced again. The neighborhood is older and completely built out and no one seems to be motivated by profit to sell.

When homes sell in this area, they are usually sold quickly and quietly at full price (in some cases, overprice, depending on how well the agent gauged the market) and the sale is usually direct from the agent to a buyer he has already been identified well in advance. Rarely are the homes in this area even listed in the MLS. So that is a market unto itself, not correlated to the real estate market in general. High quality at a fair price will always sell, regardless of external market conditions.

So, looking at the broad real estate market has certain value but not necessarily on an individual, personal level. I think we have to look at exactly where we want to live, how we want to live and then determine if the price someone is asking is worth what we are willing to pay. Waiting for a market to crash so we can get a better deal on a family home is no different than speculating on the way up. Both are dangerous stances to take with your personal residence.

What if we are wrong in our “prediction” of what will happen? We could miss the opportunity of our lifetime by treating our home as an “investment” and not buying our dream home when it comes on the market.

My mentor once told me “If you see something you love, go for it, because that opportunity may never come again.” So many times in my life those words have helped me make certain decisions for the right reasons and I have never regretted acting under those set of circumstances.

To me, a home is a place where you live your life, watch your children grow up, create the memories that define your existence. And I will pay any price to secure the type of life I want, regardless of market conditions. After all, why do we earn money anyway? I believe we earn first to survive and then so that we can create the type of life we want, so we can feel safe and secure and empowered and find meaning in our existence.

Back to the market: My experience at this point in time is that sales are slowing down but prices are holding (at least where I live and also in areas I plan on living in the future). But then I am possibly looking at the elephant from a different perspective than you.

[docteur]

HI PD. I’m not a realtor, nor I am a deeply mortgaged homeowner (I paid my mortgage off last Monday).

I think sdduuuude is pointing out that inflation is a huge variable we must consider when trying to get to a reasonable prediction (that might be an oxymoron) of what could happen next in our economy, especially in the housing sector.

And if no one really knows the value of that variable, there are a multitude of outcomes that could be realized over the next several years. I believe he was simply pointing that out.

Powayseller asked what we could do to bring some civility to these forums. My suggestion is to perceive whatever is posted as being in support of all of us becoming more aware of what may happen next. Instead of interpreting a post as hostile or mean spirited, what would happen if we saw it as simply another contribution to our knowledge of this most complex situation.

No one, absolutely no one knows what will happen next. So, I try to base my beliefs on what is useful.

My opinion, my belief, is that the best thing to do is wait for an obvious trend to emerge and then follow it. Acting on predictions is a very dangerous way to operate. I try to run through as many scenarios as possible in my mind, (no matter how ridiculous they may seem) and then if one manifests itself, I will at least be prepared to deal with it and take action based on how accurately I analyzed that particular possibility.

Sometimes the best response is none at all. I try to observe and then simply follow the trend (react to what is happening around me). If no direction is clear, I simply step away and wait for one to emerge.

sdduuuudes post gave me a whole new perspective to operate from and helped create another level of awareness realting to the possible outcomes of this housing market.

Right now, no one knows what is going to happen. No one. But I keep coming to this website because I like to read your posts, powayseller’s, sdduuuude’s and anyone else who cares to state thier opinion or beliefs here.

This is not Japan and it is not 23 years ago. That was then, this is now and this is brand new territory for all of us. So let’s keep sharing our ideas, our opinions and our beliefs and keep the personal slights out of the forums.

Let’s just see where it all takes us and by discussing all the possibilities, different points of view, opinions and beliefs, we will be better prepared for whatever happens next. We will all benefit together through our willingness to participate in this forum. How exciting is that?

[docteur]

sdduuuude. Both Posts are right on.

[Author]

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