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denverite
ParticipantIMHO, here are some additional reasons not to get too excited about housing, for now.
Already mentioned previously – johnny one note says unemployment is rising.
Under-employment is rising – not shown in headline statistics. 9% forced time off for CA employees. That’s a 9% salary reduction. This will be much more prevalent down the road in both local govt and businesses.
Wages are stagnant or falling. If the trend continues, the old housing price to income ratio should still hold, but in this scenario, housing prices will be more depressed than expected.
A gap is developing in the move-up sector between the middle and upper housing price tiers. With no demand to drive prices higher in the upper tier, the most likely scenario is falling prices in the upper sector.
The stock market has fallen almost 50% off the peak, IRA’s and 401Ks are decimated. Today stock market is down 5% and pushing on the recent lows. The wealth effect produced by the housing and stock markets is severely reduced. This just can’t be good for massive purchases like housing. That being said, the baby boomers will probably be forced to keep working and stay in their homes for a few more years (keeping supply a bit more muted).
IMHO, there will be a time to make the plung into the high end, but now is not the time.
I in advance apologize for something that may appear a ramble.
ParticipantIMHO, here are some additional reasons not to get too excited about housing, for now.
Already mentioned previously – johnny one note says unemployment is rising.
Under-employment is rising – not shown in headline statistics. 9% forced time off for CA employees. That’s a 9% salary reduction. This will be much more prevalent down the road in both local govt and businesses.
Wages are stagnant or falling. If the trend continues, the old housing price to income ratio should still hold, but in this scenario, housing prices will be more depressed than expected.
A gap is developing in the move-up sector between the middle and upper housing price tiers. With no demand to drive prices higher in the upper tier, the most likely scenario is falling prices in the upper sector.
The stock market has fallen almost 50% off the peak, IRA’s and 401Ks are decimated. Today stock market is down 5% and pushing on the recent lows. The wealth effect produced by the housing and stock markets is severely reduced. This just can’t be good for massive purchases like housing. That being said, the baby boomers will probably be forced to keep working and stay in their homes for a few more years (keeping supply a bit more muted).
IMHO, there will be a time to make the plung into the high end, but now is not the time.
I in advance apologize for something that may appear a ramble.
ParticipantIMHO, here are some additional reasons not to get too excited about housing, for now.
Already mentioned previously – johnny one note says unemployment is rising.
Under-employment is rising – not shown in headline statistics. 9% forced time off for CA employees. That’s a 9% salary reduction. This will be much more prevalent down the road in both local govt and businesses.
Wages are stagnant or falling. If the trend continues, the old housing price to income ratio should still hold, but in this scenario, housing prices will be more depressed than expected.
A gap is developing in the move-up sector between the middle and upper housing price tiers. With no demand to drive prices higher in the upper tier, the most likely scenario is falling prices in the upper sector.
The stock market has fallen almost 50% off the peak, IRA’s and 401Ks are decimated. Today stock market is down 5% and pushing on the recent lows. The wealth effect produced by the housing and stock markets is severely reduced. This just can’t be good for massive purchases like housing. That being said, the baby boomers will probably be forced to keep working and stay in their homes for a few more years (keeping supply a bit more muted).
IMHO, there will be a time to make the plung into the high end, but now is not the time.
I in advance apologize for something that may appear a ramble.
ParticipantIMHO, here are some additional reasons not to get too excited about housing, for now.
Already mentioned previously – johnny one note says unemployment is rising.
Under-employment is rising – not shown in headline statistics. 9% forced time off for CA employees. That’s a 9% salary reduction. This will be much more prevalent down the road in both local govt and businesses.
Wages are stagnant or falling. If the trend continues, the old housing price to income ratio should still hold, but in this scenario, housing prices will be more depressed than expected.
A gap is developing in the move-up sector between the middle and upper housing price tiers. With no demand to drive prices higher in the upper tier, the most likely scenario is falling prices in the upper sector.
The stock market has fallen almost 50% off the peak, IRA’s and 401Ks are decimated. Today stock market is down 5% and pushing on the recent lows. The wealth effect produced by the housing and stock markets is severely reduced. This just can’t be good for massive purchases like housing. That being said, the baby boomers will probably be forced to keep working and stay in their homes for a few more years (keeping supply a bit more muted).
IMHO, there will be a time to make the plung into the high end, but now is not the time.
I in advance apologize for something that may appear a ramble.
ParticipantI have been tracking uhaul rates for about 4 years, mostly to/from san diego/denver (and San antonio). I followed the largest residential moving truck rates. The ratio of the “move from” SD to “move to” for the aforementioned cities pretty much held constant at about 2.7. In early Dec 2008 that ratio dropped to around 2.1. I believe there are fewer families moving out of SD because the employment picture in destiation cities is currently not bright. Since California will probably be one of the last states to recover economically (many other states will recover earlier), it follows that outmigration will increase as the job prospects elevate in destination states.
ParticipantI have been tracking uhaul rates for about 4 years, mostly to/from san diego/denver (and San antonio). I followed the largest residential moving truck rates. The ratio of the “move from” SD to “move to” for the aforementioned cities pretty much held constant at about 2.7. In early Dec 2008 that ratio dropped to around 2.1. I believe there are fewer families moving out of SD because the employment picture in destiation cities is currently not bright. Since California will probably be one of the last states to recover economically (many other states will recover earlier), it follows that outmigration will increase as the job prospects elevate in destination states.
ParticipantI have been tracking uhaul rates for about 4 years, mostly to/from san diego/denver (and San antonio). I followed the largest residential moving truck rates. The ratio of the “move from” SD to “move to” for the aforementioned cities pretty much held constant at about 2.7. In early Dec 2008 that ratio dropped to around 2.1. I believe there are fewer families moving out of SD because the employment picture in destiation cities is currently not bright. Since California will probably be one of the last states to recover economically (many other states will recover earlier), it follows that outmigration will increase as the job prospects elevate in destination states.
ParticipantI have been tracking uhaul rates for about 4 years, mostly to/from san diego/denver (and San antonio). I followed the largest residential moving truck rates. The ratio of the “move from” SD to “move to” for the aforementioned cities pretty much held constant at about 2.7. In early Dec 2008 that ratio dropped to around 2.1. I believe there are fewer families moving out of SD because the employment picture in destiation cities is currently not bright. Since California will probably be one of the last states to recover economically (many other states will recover earlier), it follows that outmigration will increase as the job prospects elevate in destination states.
ParticipantI have been tracking uhaul rates for about 4 years, mostly to/from san diego/denver (and San antonio). I followed the largest residential moving truck rates. The ratio of the “move from” SD to “move to” for the aforementioned cities pretty much held constant at about 2.7. In early Dec 2008 that ratio dropped to around 2.1. I believe there are fewer families moving out of SD because the employment picture in destiation cities is currently not bright. Since California will probably be one of the last states to recover economically (many other states will recover earlier), it follows that outmigration will increase as the job prospects elevate in destination states.
ParticipantThere are some unflattering opinions on Zillow, but at the risk of invokinr ire, I’d like to mention one of my data sources. Zillow has a chart that depicts historical home values (short and longer term) by zip, city, county, etc. I’m somewhat less skeptical of zip/city values than individual “Zestimates”, however the trend is clearly down. I haven’t found out exactly what the data is comprised of, weighting used, SFR/multi-family contribution, or whether the data is actual sales or a composition of “Zestimates”. It would be more convincing if the basis were actual sales and not “Zestimates”, but the trends seem to model current data from other sources. Also, it’s probably a couple months out of date, by the time it makes the charts.
ParticipantThere are some unflattering opinions on Zillow, but at the risk of invokinr ire, I’d like to mention one of my data sources. Zillow has a chart that depicts historical home values (short and longer term) by zip, city, county, etc. I’m somewhat less skeptical of zip/city values than individual “Zestimates”, however the trend is clearly down. I haven’t found out exactly what the data is comprised of, weighting used, SFR/multi-family contribution, or whether the data is actual sales or a composition of “Zestimates”. It would be more convincing if the basis were actual sales and not “Zestimates”, but the trends seem to model current data from other sources. Also, it’s probably a couple months out of date, by the time it makes the charts.
ParticipantThere are some unflattering opinions on Zillow, but at the risk of invokinr ire, I’d like to mention one of my data sources. Zillow has a chart that depicts historical home values (short and longer term) by zip, city, county, etc. I’m somewhat less skeptical of zip/city values than individual “Zestimates”, however the trend is clearly down. I haven’t found out exactly what the data is comprised of, weighting used, SFR/multi-family contribution, or whether the data is actual sales or a composition of “Zestimates”. It would be more convincing if the basis were actual sales and not “Zestimates”, but the trends seem to model current data from other sources. Also, it’s probably a couple months out of date, by the time it makes the charts.
ParticipantThere are some unflattering opinions on Zillow, but at the risk of invokinr ire, I’d like to mention one of my data sources. Zillow has a chart that depicts historical home values (short and longer term) by zip, city, county, etc. I’m somewhat less skeptical of zip/city values than individual “Zestimates”, however the trend is clearly down. I haven’t found out exactly what the data is comprised of, weighting used, SFR/multi-family contribution, or whether the data is actual sales or a composition of “Zestimates”. It would be more convincing if the basis were actual sales and not “Zestimates”, but the trends seem to model current data from other sources. Also, it’s probably a couple months out of date, by the time it makes the charts.
ParticipantThere are some unflattering opinions on Zillow, but at the risk of invokinr ire, I’d like to mention one of my data sources. Zillow has a chart that depicts historical home values (short and longer term) by zip, city, county, etc. I’m somewhat less skeptical of zip/city values than individual “Zestimates”, however the trend is clearly down. I haven’t found out exactly what the data is comprised of, weighting used, SFR/multi-family contribution, or whether the data is actual sales or a composition of “Zestimates”. It would be more convincing if the basis were actual sales and not “Zestimates”, but the trends seem to model current data from other sources. Also, it’s probably a couple months out of date, by the time it makes the charts.
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