[DCRogers]

Lots more inventory in one of the “better” parts of 92116 (north of Adams) but prices still out of line with reality. Sales sloooooow (but still happening).

But the real disasters in 92116 are all the condo conversions… the one at Suncrest should practically have its own page on Foreclosure.com, and all of the new south of Adams ones are well-represented, sometimes multiple units with the same owner. El Cajon = The Boulevard (of broken dreams).

The one ray of hope for these neighborhoods is that with a bit more of a drop, many homes will be priced within the GSE confirming loan limit for those with a down payment. (That’s what goes for hope these days!)

[DCRogers]

Lots more inventory in one of the “better” parts of 92116 (north of Adams) but prices still out of line with reality. Sales sloooooow (but still happening).

But the real disasters in 92116 are all the condo conversions… the one at Suncrest should practically have its own page on Foreclosure.com, and all of the new south of Adams ones are well-represented, sometimes multiple units with the same owner. El Cajon = The Boulevard (of broken dreams).

The one ray of hope for these neighborhoods is that with a bit more of a drop, many homes will be priced within the GSE confirming loan limit for those with a down payment. (That’s what goes for hope these days!)

[DCRogers]

Lots more inventory in one of the “better” parts of 92116 (north of Adams) but prices still out of line with reality. Sales sloooooow (but still happening).

But the real disasters in 92116 are all the condo conversions… the one at Suncrest should practically have its own page on Foreclosure.com, and all of the new south of Adams ones are well-represented, sometimes multiple units with the same owner. El Cajon = The Boulevard (of broken dreams).

The one ray of hope for these neighborhoods is that with a bit more of a drop, many homes will be priced within the GSE confirming loan limit for those with a down payment. (That’s what goes for hope these days!)

[DCRogers]

I believe newguy paid $115/SF, so I don’t think he’ll be crying at the courthouse steps anytime soon… hard to build for much less than that.

In any case, in a cyclic market, it’s the holding period that allows one to avoid having to time the exact bottom of the market. You may not time the exact bottom, but in 10 years, you’ll likely be made whole with a bit of extra change.

For most assets (i.e., stocks) market timing is a loser’s game: the market is better at incorporating information than you are. An exception may be real estate, where the long lag times may give the patient an edge.

[DCRogers]

I believe newguy paid $115/SF, so I don’t think he’ll be crying at the courthouse steps anytime soon… hard to build for much less than that.

In any case, in a cyclic market, it’s the holding period that allows one to avoid having to time the exact bottom of the market. You may not time the exact bottom, but in 10 years, you’ll likely be made whole with a bit of extra change.

For most assets (i.e., stocks) market timing is a loser’s game: the market is better at incorporating information than you are. An exception may be real estate, where the long lag times may give the patient an edge.

[DCRogers]

I believe newguy paid $115/SF, so I don’t think he’ll be crying at the courthouse steps anytime soon… hard to build for much less than that.

In any case, in a cyclic market, it’s the holding period that allows one to avoid having to time the exact bottom of the market. You may not time the exact bottom, but in 10 years, you’ll likely be made whole with a bit of extra change.

For most assets (i.e., stocks) market timing is a loser’s game: the market is better at incorporating information than you are. An exception may be real estate, where the long lag times may give the patient an edge.

[DCRogers]

Chris,

I think the opinions which you will find here are that homes are set to fall in price: some believe by a little (20%), some by a lot (50%). You can try to low-ball, but mostly, it will take time for reality to set in with sellers. Buying now has a lot of risk (“catching the falling knife”).

Best option is to rent: good news here, there are a lot of great rentals N-of-Adams, priced at a level that you could not dream to purchase for. Enjoy a year or two of subsidized rent, while you learn the nooks and crannies of the area, and wait for a great place to open up.

(It is nice to see the average simple home around here fall below $500K… now if it could get to $400K there might be a chance again for singles, couples, and young families to move in here. [A poster on another thread was right: they are the true, best, audience for the smaller homes around here.])

[DCRogers]

Chris,

I think the opinions which you will find here are that homes are set to fall in price: some believe by a little (20%), some by a lot (50%). You can try to low-ball, but mostly, it will take time for reality to set in with sellers. Buying now has a lot of risk (“catching the falling knife”).

Best option is to rent: good news here, there are a lot of great rentals N-of-Adams, priced at a level that you could not dream to purchase for. Enjoy a year or two of subsidized rent, while you learn the nooks and crannies of the area, and wait for a great place to open up.

(It is nice to see the average simple home around here fall below $500K… now if it could get to $400K there might be a chance again for singles, couples, and young families to move in here. [A poster on another thread was right: they are the true, best, audience for the smaller homes around here.])

[DCRogers]

Hey, I must defend this neighborhood of modest homes, which now look ever-more-modest in this super-sized era of McMansions. I live in an 1100-SF home, and think about the horror of having to clean a home twice as big! Small sizes mean you got more neighbors out walking around; too many modern neighborhoods sprawl too much for the old walk-to-the-store to be enjoyable (or even possible). And don’t get me going on the modern “snout” garage look… yuck yuck yuck.

(Also, it does give one discipline about not collecting too much “stuff”… including kids! The previous owners had one kid, and had to move when #2 approached…)

As for what these homes are worth (other than what someone will pay for them! ;-), if you assume a conservative 1% appreciation over inflation to be the “natural” rate of growth, then 4%/year of 200K since 2000 would be (7x$8K) and the “true” value around $256K. Assume 2% appreciation and you get $270K. (That’s assuming 2000 was a neutral year price-wise.) I doubt it will get that low, but heck, who knows. I certainly think it will drop below $400K; with a bit more meltdown, perhaps even to $300-350K.

[DCRogers]

Hey, I must defend this neighborhood of modest homes, which now look ever-more-modest in this super-sized era of McMansions. I live in an 1100-SF home, and think about the horror of having to clean a home twice as big! Small sizes mean you got more neighbors out walking around; too many modern neighborhoods sprawl too much for the old walk-to-the-store to be enjoyable (or even possible). And don’t get me going on the modern “snout” garage look… yuck yuck yuck.

(Also, it does give one discipline about not collecting too much “stuff”… including kids! The previous owners had one kid, and had to move when #2 approached…)

As for what these homes are worth (other than what someone will pay for them! ;-), if you assume a conservative 1% appreciation over inflation to be the “natural” rate of growth, then 4%/year of 200K since 2000 would be (7x$8K) and the “true” value around $256K. Assume 2% appreciation and you get $270K. (That’s assuming 2000 was a neutral year price-wise.) I doubt it will get that low, but heck, who knows. I certainly think it will drop below $400K; with a bit more meltdown, perhaps even to $300-350K.

[DCRogers]

Nice area, but I admit that is a small house, and a small lot. Pluses are that it is far north of Adams and is well-kept up. Price per sq ft is still pushing it.

I recently had a real-estate person come by, and say that for the first time in a while, she now had a lot of homes under $500K. My best guesstimate is that this neighborhood will end up with most homes in $350K-$450K range when the dust settles (though the bottom may be lower, esp. for some of the cheap condo-conversions).

[DCRogers]

I have a 2/3 stock, 1/3 bond mix, with 2/3 of stock in US and 1/3 international. (Also a small side account I use for my “personal picks”.) All other purchases in low-overhead index funds.

I’m amazed that, given the obvious smarts of people on this web site, that so many are market timers (“I can beat the market”) and so many are undiversified (diversification is the easiest (and nearly cost-free) way to lower your risk/expected return ratio).

The classic book in the field is Malkiel’s “A Random Walk Down Wall Street“. If you’re making critical financial decisions for your own life, you should take the time to read about passive investing, whatever your final decision is. Otherwise, you’re as foolish as people signing mortgage documents (the other big financial decision people make) without reading the contract.

[DCRogers]

Not that “desparate”… according to sdlookup.com, they just bought the house for $1.3M in March of 2006.

If wanting to sell your house at 25% more than it was worth last year counts as desperate, then I’m desperate too. Something tells me these people are about to learn a lot more about what actually counts as desperation.

[DCRogers]

Not that “desparate”… according to sdlookup.com, they just bought the house for $1.3M in March of 2006.

If wanting to sell your house at 25% more than it was worth last year counts as desperate, then I’m desperate too. Something tells me these people are about to learn a lot more about what actually counts as desperation.

[DCRogers]

Not that “desparate”… according to sdlookup.com, they just bought the house for $1.3M in March of 2006.

If wanting to sell your house at 25% more than it was worth last year counts as desperate, then I’m desperate too. Something tells me these people are about to learn a lot more about what actually counts as desperation.

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