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January 22, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #141142January 22, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #141157
davelj
ParticipantI was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.
From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”
Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.
I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.
Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.
Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.
January 22, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #141184ParticipantI was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.
From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”
Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.
I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.
Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.
Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.
January 22, 2008 at 3:18 PM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #141240ParticipantI was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.
From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”
Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.
I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.
Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.
Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.
ParticipantBABY WANT MORE CANDY!! BABY WANT MORE CAKE!! WHAAAAAAAAAA!!
(OK, now I feel better.)
ParticipantBABY WANT MORE CANDY!! BABY WANT MORE CAKE!! WHAAAAAAAAAA!!
(OK, now I feel better.)
ParticipantBABY WANT MORE CANDY!! BABY WANT MORE CAKE!! WHAAAAAAAAAA!!
(OK, now I feel better.)
ParticipantBABY WANT MORE CANDY!! BABY WANT MORE CAKE!! WHAAAAAAAAAA!!
(OK, now I feel better.)
ParticipantBABY WANT MORE CANDY!! BABY WANT MORE CAKE!! WHAAAAAAAAAA!!
(OK, now I feel better.)
January 22, 2008 at 12:23 AM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #140496ParticipantNo. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.
Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.
Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.
January 22, 2008 at 12:23 AM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #140717ParticipantNo. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.
Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.
Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.
January 22, 2008 at 12:23 AM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #140735ParticipantNo. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.
Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.
Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.
January 22, 2008 at 12:23 AM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #140760ParticipantNo. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.
Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.
Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.
January 22, 2008 at 12:23 AM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #140811ParticipantNo. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.
Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.
Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.
January 21, 2008 at 10:46 PM in reply to: My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08…. #140452ParticipantRisk has been dramatically mispriced across virtually every asset class (with the possible exception of commodities) for much of the last decade. And layers and layers of leverage have been applied to such assets. What we are witnessing is the simultaneous re-pricing of risk and an unwinding of the leverage. It must, by definition, end in tears.
But, hey, it could be worse. It could be MY money.
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