Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
DaCounselor
Participant“If you don’t want to put up the addresses, that’s fine by me. However, you need not delude yourself into thinking that I am incapable of reconciling those prices and finding a baseline for that neighborhood.”
___________________________Thanks for the advise on not needing to delude myself. I’ll take that under consideration.
It seems my point has been lost somewhere. In an environment where prices for like properties rise steeply over time (is anyone arguing that is not what happened in SD?), the difference between a sales price on 1/1/XX and 12/31/XX can be significant. So when someone says pricing is going back to 20XX levels, what number are they referring to?
It really is a simple question.
Participant“If you don’t want to put up the addresses, that’s fine by me. However, you need not delude yourself into thinking that I am incapable of reconciling those prices and finding a baseline for that neighborhood.”
___________________________Thanks for the advise on not needing to delude myself. I’ll take that under consideration.
It seems my point has been lost somewhere. In an environment where prices for like properties rise steeply over time (is anyone arguing that is not what happened in SD?), the difference between a sales price on 1/1/XX and 12/31/XX can be significant. So when someone says pricing is going back to 20XX levels, what number are they referring to?
It really is a simple question.
Participant“But the real issue here is, the direction of prices, which doesn’t appear to be, up.”
______________________________That’s not the issue presented in this thread. The screaming all-caps issue is whether high-end properties in OC have been WHACKED yoy. ls2008 argues they have been – based on data I find flimsy and unreliable. I don’t need to bring data to refute the fact that ls2008’s posted median low-volume yoy data is flimsy support for the WHACKED conclusion being drawn – the data is what it is. Everyone here can draw their own conclusions regarding the data being offered in support of ls2008’s allegation and weigh it as they wish.
My general point, as originally raised, is that on this site most folks have graduated well beyond yoy median data reliance (particularly in a low volume environment) and now typically want to see much more meaningful data, particulary when someone is trying to back up a screaming headline. One need not venture far into other screaming sky-is-falling headline threads on this site to find an ultimate…”uh, never mind”…end results.
Participant“But the real issue here is, the direction of prices, which doesn’t appear to be, up.”
______________________________That’s not the issue presented in this thread. The screaming all-caps issue is whether high-end properties in OC have been WHACKED yoy. ls2008 argues they have been – based on data I find flimsy and unreliable. I don’t need to bring data to refute the fact that ls2008’s posted median low-volume yoy data is flimsy support for the WHACKED conclusion being drawn – the data is what it is. Everyone here can draw their own conclusions regarding the data being offered in support of ls2008’s allegation and weigh it as they wish.
My general point, as originally raised, is that on this site most folks have graduated well beyond yoy median data reliance (particularly in a low volume environment) and now typically want to see much more meaningful data, particulary when someone is trying to back up a screaming headline. One need not venture far into other screaming sky-is-falling headline threads on this site to find an ultimate…”uh, never mind”…end results.
ParticipantBugs – the $386K sale closed in April ’04 and the $459K sale closed in June ’04. Same complex, same floorplan. Four other sales in the neighborhood in ’04 (same floorplan) ranged from $390K – $455K. A detailed discussion of the figures and supporting data is really irrelevant – my only point is that if someone says that my neighborhood is going back to ’04 pricing, I ask what do you mean by ’04 pricing? I use my own neighborhood as an example of how referring to a year’s pricing is far too vague (at least in my example – other areas may have had sales in a very tight range – I don’t know). That’s it.
ParticipantBugs – the $386K sale closed in April ’04 and the $459K sale closed in June ’04. Same complex, same floorplan. Four other sales in the neighborhood in ’04 (same floorplan) ranged from $390K – $455K. A detailed discussion of the figures and supporting data is really irrelevant – my only point is that if someone says that my neighborhood is going back to ’04 pricing, I ask what do you mean by ’04 pricing? I use my own neighborhood as an example of how referring to a year’s pricing is far too vague (at least in my example – other areas may have had sales in a very tight range – I don’t know). That’s it.
Participant“Perhaps your worried? I suppose you think the market is going up, Da Counselor?
What is your prediction for this market, and, please state the facts to back it up…”
_________________________My prediction for “this market” (what that means, I have no idea) is irrelevant. The issue at hand is that you have started a thread with a screaming, all-caps headline that the sky is falling on high-end properties in OC, and you have supported it with nothing more than a month’s worth of low-volume median data from 6 zip codes. I’m calling the support for your screaming headline flimsy. You’re the one trying to sell your headline, so you’re the one who needs to bring data, not me.
Participant“Perhaps your worried? I suppose you think the market is going up, Da Counselor?
What is your prediction for this market, and, please state the facts to back it up…”
_________________________My prediction for “this market” (what that means, I have no idea) is irrelevant. The issue at hand is that you have started a thread with a screaming, all-caps headline that the sky is falling on high-end properties in OC, and you have supported it with nothing more than a month’s worth of low-volume median data from 6 zip codes. I’m calling the support for your screaming headline flimsy. You’re the one trying to sell your headline, so you’re the one who needs to bring data, not me.
ParticipantMaybe I missed an earlier and accepted definition on this site regarding what exactly “20XX pricing” means, because I don’t understand precisely what is being referred to. For instance, in 2004 the same floorplan sold in my neighborhood for as low as $386K and as high as $459K. So what is 2004 pricing? The average? The median? The high? The low? As you can see in this one example, how you define “2004 pricing” makes a big difference in the analysis.
ParticipantMaybe I missed an earlier and accepted definition on this site regarding what exactly “20XX pricing” means, because I don’t understand precisely what is being referred to. For instance, in 2004 the same floorplan sold in my neighborhood for as low as $386K and as high as $459K. So what is 2004 pricing? The average? The median? The high? The low? As you can see in this one example, how you define “2004 pricing” makes a big difference in the analysis.
ParticipantCertainly you all are not still debating the veracity of median stats on this site, are you? I thought I noticed an evolution to much more meaningful analysis several months ago. This thread smacks of just another sensationalistic, screaming headline backed up with the oh so reliable….median stats? And one-month median stats at that? And on low volume?
You folks have and would slice and dice threads with this type of flimsy support if the numbers were running the other direction.
ParticipantCertainly you all are not still debating the veracity of median stats on this site, are you? I thought I noticed an evolution to much more meaningful analysis several months ago. This thread smacks of just another sensationalistic, screaming headline backed up with the oh so reliable….median stats? And one-month median stats at that? And on low volume?
You folks have and would slice and dice threads with this type of flimsy support if the numbers were running the other direction.
Participant“Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.
I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.
Check it out here:
http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com”
____________________________I don’t know about your area, but vast swaths of San Diego are covered in tract home developments, townhomes and condos. With respect to these neighborhoods, simply plotting the sales prices of like models/floorplans/etc. should tell the story. I would imagine that anyone who has identified particular communities they are interested in would be following the sales figures very closely. I’m actually surprised to not see more posts here that simply lay out the history of sales prices for like models/floorplans/etc. Folks can chrystal-ball gaze until their eyes fall out of their heads, but there is no arguing what the sales numbers show.
Participant“Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.
I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.
Check it out here:
http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com”
____________________________I don’t know about your area, but vast swaths of San Diego are covered in tract home developments, townhomes and condos. With respect to these neighborhoods, simply plotting the sales prices of like models/floorplans/etc. should tell the story. I would imagine that anyone who has identified particular communities they are interested in would be following the sales figures very closely. I’m actually surprised to not see more posts here that simply lay out the history of sales prices for like models/floorplans/etc. Folks can chrystal-ball gaze until their eyes fall out of their heads, but there is no arguing what the sales numbers show.
-
AuthorPosts