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DaCounselor
ParticipantI agree that downtown Encinitas is probably your best bet although it’s not really very much like Hillcrest – nothing up that way is, sorry.
The commute from Hillcrest to C-bad would be tough, northbound traffic can get heavy in the morning and southbound 5 and 805 at night are actually pretty bad in my experience.
ParticipantI have lived in MB/PB/BayHo for 20 yrs. The western slope of Clairemont (BayHo, Bay Park and Morena) is a good middle ground as far as offering great access to PB/Mission Bay but being outside the jungle so to speak. Geographically I think it’s perhaps the best central location you can find in San Diego.
It is definitely a diverse area with your quality of home, upkeep, and type of person inhabiting said home varying greatly. There are some sweet pockets to be found but also many areas where quality swings wildly not just street to street but lot to lot. I have great friends in a beautiful remodeled canyon home on a Mt. Street with an increasingly run down home next door and a 50 year old drug addict living in a camper in the driveway of the home across the street. That is Clairemont.
BPE is a very good school, I have a close friend who teaches there and she does not BS. It has a very good rep. The fall-off in quality from BPE to public middle and high school is extremely steep by every account. If this is your 20 yr house than get comfortable with sending your kids to these schools or get ready to start writing some big checks if you know what I mean.
The freeway noise hitting that house will at least double in volume at night and maybe even more depending on cloud cover. Trust me I live on a hillside in Bay Ho.
Regarding CV and the like, I have always been anti-cookie-cutter myself until I faced the fact that I grew up in the planned community/subdivision environment and it was a great childhood. The typical slam against the stucco-box tracts is that they lack character and soul. It’s actually a pretty shallow and almost comical argument in some ways. I figure I would look like an idiot getting down on one knee and telling my kids about this neighborhood designed for families, with the best schools, parks, lots of kids running around the neighborhood, etc – but hey kids we’re not going to move there because you see those houses don’t have any soul…
Now I’m not saying every family should run up to CV or SR and buy a house, there are pros and cons with every area, I’m just saying the cons espoused by the ant-tract crowd of which I used to belong may merit some deeper thought.
Anyway I think there is no reason why you and your family can’t have a great life in that house – sounds like you really like it and the area works for you. I agree with whoever said the price may be a little high for the neighborhood, the freeway noise and no view, but it doesn’t look to be wildly over-priced. Keep us posted how it turns out!
ParticipantGood find enron, thanks. I wonder if they will build that park if the City won’t commit to maintenance after the first two years of Pardee’s maintenance are over.
The revised plan also extends the development period by 14 years, to 2035. Not surprising given the circumstances but wow, what a difference than what was initially anticipated. I hope for the sake of the people in PHR as well as the neighboring areas they get things figured out over there, but excuse me if I am not optimistic of any quick improvements to the situation. Too bad.
ParticipantPHR is a good example of dangers associated with being an early settlor in a planned community. Eight years or so from the first homes going up and still no parks, no shopping and no schools? Eight years!
I think they are getting closer to putting a shopping center up on the corner of DM Heights Rd and CV Rd, but I understand there is still some serious debate on the subject. Nothing is coming easy for PHR…
I doubt there will ever be any new housing stock on decent lot sizes in PHR as the entire concept is for a pedestrian friendly community with small lots and a villagey feel.
I would much prefer the older housing stock in CV than PHR for about the same price. Way too many question marks in PHR’s future. They may ultimately get everything figured out and built out, but by that time the early settlors’ kids will be off to college…It may end up fulfilling its promise but if and when is the question and you really won’t know how the area will feel until it’s built out.
ParticipantLooks that way – thanks UC. I am pretty surprised at the asking prices for the nicer 4 bedroom homes – thought we could get into something for around $3-3.5K but it looks more like $4-4.5K. Oh well.
ParticipantAlso re double-pane, actually a very good call and to be appreciated by the new owners if for no other reason than sound insulation. This house directly overlooks Regents and is also very close to the 52.
ParticipantLooks like maybe $50K of work. These guys probably made some good money on this one barring any serious non-cosmetic work. Nice job.
September 27, 2011 at 4:41 PM in reply to: CA demographic shifts in the coming years will favor cities over suburbia #729828ParticipantI am Gen X not Gen Y but I see no reason why Gen Y will not follow a similar path as they age.
I’m estimating I had about 20 friends living in SF while in their 20’s. Great times. They all got married, started having kids, and every single of one of them moved out of the urban core. Typical reasons of course – more space, schools, safety, more kid-oriented environment. Access to bars and restaurants move pretty far down the list of priorities.
Same exact thing with a handful of friends in NYC and Chicago and then a huge number of friends in DC all moving out to suburbia. Same reasons as above.
This is a huge country with people choosing to live in many varied settings and there is no right or wrong as far as I’m concerned. I know plenty of very smart, fun, cool, hip people living in stucco boxes in suburbia because the time came to make the trade based on changing priorities. And they are living well and enjoying life.
To each his own.
June 13, 2011 at 7:12 PM in reply to: Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years? #703096Participant“DaCounselor, if you were a longtime owner of a property today which was located in an area you feel should go down in value more but isn’t seeming to, would YOU sell right now?”
__________Hey – I resemble that remark…! Well kind of – my longtime rentals in South Mish and PB have gone down in value and I sometimes I wish I had sold them 5 years ago, can’t say I wasn’t tempted.
In any event when I say I believe that ultimately there will be plenty of devaluation to go around, including those who feel some level of immunity or “stalwartness” if you will, I am not predicting with specificity that all properties of all types in all zips with all levels of finishes etc etc will devalue the same % or $$ amount. Do I expect significant declines in value for all – generally yes.
On the subject of % vs $$ I am more apt to look at $$ decline. For instance the lucky folks who just closed on the sale of their house on Virginia Way in LJ on Friday for a $450K loss from their peak purchase in ’05, plus another $75-100K in transaction costs. Ouch. Perhaps not the most prime property but awfully close to the Village….
Throwing ultra-exclusive one-off clifftop panoramic view properties into the discussion won’t serve much purpose for the average person or Pig as those transactions involve a miniscule sliver of society that operate in a different universe. Nontheless I bet I can find such properties throughout SoCal that have recently sold for staggering discounts from prime-time peak prices. How can this be – don’t the values of such properties only go up?
I use LJ 92037 as my example due its mix of property types, its location and exclusivity, some which is real and some which is perceived. The word used by one of my RE developer clients when describing 92037 RE was “bulletproof”. Clearly that is not the case.
June 13, 2011 at 7:12 PM in reply to: Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years? #703193Participant“DaCounselor, if you were a longtime owner of a property today which was located in an area you feel should go down in value more but isn’t seeming to, would YOU sell right now?”
__________Hey – I resemble that remark…! Well kind of – my longtime rentals in South Mish and PB have gone down in value and I sometimes I wish I had sold them 5 years ago, can’t say I wasn’t tempted.
In any event when I say I believe that ultimately there will be plenty of devaluation to go around, including those who feel some level of immunity or “stalwartness” if you will, I am not predicting with specificity that all properties of all types in all zips with all levels of finishes etc etc will devalue the same % or $$ amount. Do I expect significant declines in value for all – generally yes.
On the subject of % vs $$ I am more apt to look at $$ decline. For instance the lucky folks who just closed on the sale of their house on Virginia Way in LJ on Friday for a $450K loss from their peak purchase in ’05, plus another $75-100K in transaction costs. Ouch. Perhaps not the most prime property but awfully close to the Village….
Throwing ultra-exclusive one-off clifftop panoramic view properties into the discussion won’t serve much purpose for the average person or Pig as those transactions involve a miniscule sliver of society that operate in a different universe. Nontheless I bet I can find such properties throughout SoCal that have recently sold for staggering discounts from prime-time peak prices. How can this be – don’t the values of such properties only go up?
I use LJ 92037 as my example due its mix of property types, its location and exclusivity, some which is real and some which is perceived. The word used by one of my RE developer clients when describing 92037 RE was “bulletproof”. Clearly that is not the case.
June 13, 2011 at 7:12 PM in reply to: Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years? #703783Participant“DaCounselor, if you were a longtime owner of a property today which was located in an area you feel should go down in value more but isn’t seeming to, would YOU sell right now?”
__________Hey – I resemble that remark…! Well kind of – my longtime rentals in South Mish and PB have gone down in value and I sometimes I wish I had sold them 5 years ago, can’t say I wasn’t tempted.
In any event when I say I believe that ultimately there will be plenty of devaluation to go around, including those who feel some level of immunity or “stalwartness” if you will, I am not predicting with specificity that all properties of all types in all zips with all levels of finishes etc etc will devalue the same % or $$ amount. Do I expect significant declines in value for all – generally yes.
On the subject of % vs $$ I am more apt to look at $$ decline. For instance the lucky folks who just closed on the sale of their house on Virginia Way in LJ on Friday for a $450K loss from their peak purchase in ’05, plus another $75-100K in transaction costs. Ouch. Perhaps not the most prime property but awfully close to the Village….
Throwing ultra-exclusive one-off clifftop panoramic view properties into the discussion won’t serve much purpose for the average person or Pig as those transactions involve a miniscule sliver of society that operate in a different universe. Nontheless I bet I can find such properties throughout SoCal that have recently sold for staggering discounts from prime-time peak prices. How can this be – don’t the values of such properties only go up?
I use LJ 92037 as my example due its mix of property types, its location and exclusivity, some which is real and some which is perceived. The word used by one of my RE developer clients when describing 92037 RE was “bulletproof”. Clearly that is not the case.
June 13, 2011 at 7:12 PM in reply to: Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years? #703931Participant“DaCounselor, if you were a longtime owner of a property today which was located in an area you feel should go down in value more but isn’t seeming to, would YOU sell right now?”
__________Hey – I resemble that remark…! Well kind of – my longtime rentals in South Mish and PB have gone down in value and I sometimes I wish I had sold them 5 years ago, can’t say I wasn’t tempted.
In any event when I say I believe that ultimately there will be plenty of devaluation to go around, including those who feel some level of immunity or “stalwartness” if you will, I am not predicting with specificity that all properties of all types in all zips with all levels of finishes etc etc will devalue the same % or $$ amount. Do I expect significant declines in value for all – generally yes.
On the subject of % vs $$ I am more apt to look at $$ decline. For instance the lucky folks who just closed on the sale of their house on Virginia Way in LJ on Friday for a $450K loss from their peak purchase in ’05, plus another $75-100K in transaction costs. Ouch. Perhaps not the most prime property but awfully close to the Village….
Throwing ultra-exclusive one-off clifftop panoramic view properties into the discussion won’t serve much purpose for the average person or Pig as those transactions involve a miniscule sliver of society that operate in a different universe. Nontheless I bet I can find such properties throughout SoCal that have recently sold for staggering discounts from prime-time peak prices. How can this be – don’t the values of such properties only go up?
I use LJ 92037 as my example due its mix of property types, its location and exclusivity, some which is real and some which is perceived. The word used by one of my RE developer clients when describing 92037 RE was “bulletproof”. Clearly that is not the case.
June 13, 2011 at 7:12 PM in reply to: Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years? #704290Participant“DaCounselor, if you were a longtime owner of a property today which was located in an area you feel should go down in value more but isn’t seeming to, would YOU sell right now?”
__________Hey – I resemble that remark…! Well kind of – my longtime rentals in South Mish and PB have gone down in value and I sometimes I wish I had sold them 5 years ago, can’t say I wasn’t tempted.
In any event when I say I believe that ultimately there will be plenty of devaluation to go around, including those who feel some level of immunity or “stalwartness” if you will, I am not predicting with specificity that all properties of all types in all zips with all levels of finishes etc etc will devalue the same % or $$ amount. Do I expect significant declines in value for all – generally yes.
On the subject of % vs $$ I am more apt to look at $$ decline. For instance the lucky folks who just closed on the sale of their house on Virginia Way in LJ on Friday for a $450K loss from their peak purchase in ’05, plus another $75-100K in transaction costs. Ouch. Perhaps not the most prime property but awfully close to the Village….
Throwing ultra-exclusive one-off clifftop panoramic view properties into the discussion won’t serve much purpose for the average person or Pig as those transactions involve a miniscule sliver of society that operate in a different universe. Nontheless I bet I can find such properties throughout SoCal that have recently sold for staggering discounts from prime-time peak prices. How can this be – don’t the values of such properties only go up?
I use LJ 92037 as my example due its mix of property types, its location and exclusivity, some which is real and some which is perceived. The word used by one of my RE developer clients when describing 92037 RE was “bulletproof”. Clearly that is not the case.
June 12, 2011 at 2:12 PM in reply to: Robert Shiller – home prices could slide for 20 years? #702760ParticipantThis country is littered with once-great neighborhoods that have declined for a variety of reasons. Neighborhoods where in their prime it was inconceivable to most that there could be such an eventual result. As it has been, as it always will be.
The wonderous built-out NYC, THE city post-WWII, began its decline in the 60’s and was significantly mired for at least 20 years until the resurgence of Wall St., though some would say it was mired for 30 years until Guiliani stepped in. Inconceivable. Now NYC is faced with its own RE bubble and a severe budget problem. NYC may be on the precipace of another great downturn.
Regarding coastal SD RE, haven’t attached homes devalued significantly? How can this be if the area is immune? Or is it only SFRs that are immune? Or only the very top 1% of SFRs with views and big lots and etc etc? What is the criteria to be immune?
Personally I beleive that in the end there will be plenty of suffering and devaluation to go around, including those who beleive they may be insulated because of their zip code, school rating or their view.
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