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cyphire
ParticipantAhh well… Somewhat the contrarian!!!
Built in Fridges & 60″ plasmas….
Love both of them…..
Here’s why… For 10 years I laughed at people who bought Sub-zeros… (don’t know about Vikings). I would buy the best side by side refridge and freezer (a full size refrig and a full size freezer!) and when I built the custom cabinets just put them around it. The only difference (I thought) was that I would have about 250% more room for food and the combo only cost about $1800. Looked great also.
Then I finally moved into a house with a built in Sub-zero. WOW… They are nearly silent (the top of the line regular refrig and freezers are noisy as hell), they keep the food perfect. They actually seal shut like a NASA space capsule. Now I have lived in 3 houses with the Sub-zero type systems, and they were all awesome. They do, however, sacrifice room for depth.
Anyway while a 7K viking is probably crap, the sub-zero’s are amazing.
On the 60″ TV front. My wife and I surf the web on our 61″ DLP’s… I bought a pair at 2500 each (Tweeter was having a sale, they were normally 3700 each.) They are Samsung 1080p and amazing. Also playing World of Warcraft, surfing the web, or playing XBox… A whole nother level!
I would never go back to a regular TV. I always get the latest TV’s and never regret it…
As to the showing my kids pictures on them? That would be a tortures offense against civilization!
Don’t hate me because I love great products!
ParticipantAhh well… Somewhat the contrarian!!!
Built in Fridges & 60″ plasmas….
Love both of them…..
Here’s why… For 10 years I laughed at people who bought Sub-zeros… (don’t know about Vikings). I would buy the best side by side refridge and freezer (a full size refrig and a full size freezer!) and when I built the custom cabinets just put them around it. The only difference (I thought) was that I would have about 250% more room for food and the combo only cost about $1800. Looked great also.
Then I finally moved into a house with a built in Sub-zero. WOW… They are nearly silent (the top of the line regular refrig and freezers are noisy as hell), they keep the food perfect. They actually seal shut like a NASA space capsule. Now I have lived in 3 houses with the Sub-zero type systems, and they were all awesome. They do, however, sacrifice room for depth.
Anyway while a 7K viking is probably crap, the sub-zero’s are amazing.
On the 60″ TV front. My wife and I surf the web on our 61″ DLP’s… I bought a pair at 2500 each (Tweeter was having a sale, they were normally 3700 each.) They are Samsung 1080p and amazing. Also playing World of Warcraft, surfing the web, or playing XBox… A whole nother level!
I would never go back to a regular TV. I always get the latest TV’s and never regret it…
As to the showing my kids pictures on them? That would be a tortures offense against civilization!
Don’t hate me because I love great products!
ParticipantAhh well… Somewhat the contrarian!!!
Built in Fridges & 60″ plasmas….
Love both of them…..
Here’s why… For 10 years I laughed at people who bought Sub-zeros… (don’t know about Vikings). I would buy the best side by side refridge and freezer (a full size refrig and a full size freezer!) and when I built the custom cabinets just put them around it. The only difference (I thought) was that I would have about 250% more room for food and the combo only cost about $1800. Looked great also.
Then I finally moved into a house with a built in Sub-zero. WOW… They are nearly silent (the top of the line regular refrig and freezers are noisy as hell), they keep the food perfect. They actually seal shut like a NASA space capsule. Now I have lived in 3 houses with the Sub-zero type systems, and they were all awesome. They do, however, sacrifice room for depth.
Anyway while a 7K viking is probably crap, the sub-zero’s are amazing.
On the 60″ TV front. My wife and I surf the web on our 61″ DLP’s… I bought a pair at 2500 each (Tweeter was having a sale, they were normally 3700 each.) They are Samsung 1080p and amazing. Also playing World of Warcraft, surfing the web, or playing XBox… A whole nother level!
I would never go back to a regular TV. I always get the latest TV’s and never regret it…
As to the showing my kids pictures on them? That would be a tortures offense against civilization!
Don’t hate me because I love great products!
ParticipantI’ll re-look – but I don’t think that 2002 is the inflation adjusted price… Will get back to you.
ParticipantI’ll re-look – but I don’t think that 2002 is the inflation adjusted price… Will get back to you.
ParticipantI’ll re-look – but I don’t think that 2002 is the inflation adjusted price… Will get back to you.
ParticipantStansd… No bashing here! I agree with some elements of the reasoning for a quick change, but I fear it will be in financial markets not homes. Here is what I feel is a more likely scenario.
Stock market volatility, but not too much drop (maybe 1-2K over the next couple of years (could be worse)). Credit tightening. More importantly, home prices falling year over year…. Why? Because people still think that the prices now are somewhat high but normal, they don’t realize that prices should be at about 50%-60% of where they are now. Look at the Case-Shiller graph. Our graph is actually much worse (much higher highs, much lower lows in CA – especially in SD.
Over the next few years, banks are NOT going to have easy 7% loans…. Expect them to be 8% and up as even if the fed drops rates, the differential will not be enough profit for banks while the home prices are dropping. Price drops will destroy equity (it will just be GONE! – It never existed anyway except for those with the foresight to exchange their properties with someone else holding the bag). As the equity tumbles, the consumer, already barely hanging on credit wise, will stop spending. The economy will suffer, jobs will be lost, cycle of economic downturns, recession might become depression.
The biggest problem is that people (even on this forum) really don’t see that 2000 prices were still out of wack (forget about 2002). Look for prices to go to 1997, possibly not even adjusted for inflation. Why does everyone listen to the parrots on wall street, NAR, builders who say that by 2009 or 2010 it will recover? As prices keep falling, it will be IMPOSSIBLE to sell. We have not had ANY fallout from the current pricing of homes yet…. Just a few short sales! Wait for the pain! It could take a few years to really start the pain and another decade to live through the pain.
p.s. I DON’T hope for this scenario… I am not a sadist! But I am a numbers guy and am not afraid to look at historical data and our current situation as it really is…
ParticipantStansd… No bashing here! I agree with some elements of the reasoning for a quick change, but I fear it will be in financial markets not homes. Here is what I feel is a more likely scenario.
Stock market volatility, but not too much drop (maybe 1-2K over the next couple of years (could be worse)). Credit tightening. More importantly, home prices falling year over year…. Why? Because people still think that the prices now are somewhat high but normal, they don’t realize that prices should be at about 50%-60% of where they are now. Look at the Case-Shiller graph. Our graph is actually much worse (much higher highs, much lower lows in CA – especially in SD.
Over the next few years, banks are NOT going to have easy 7% loans…. Expect them to be 8% and up as even if the fed drops rates, the differential will not be enough profit for banks while the home prices are dropping. Price drops will destroy equity (it will just be GONE! – It never existed anyway except for those with the foresight to exchange their properties with someone else holding the bag). As the equity tumbles, the consumer, already barely hanging on credit wise, will stop spending. The economy will suffer, jobs will be lost, cycle of economic downturns, recession might become depression.
The biggest problem is that people (even on this forum) really don’t see that 2000 prices were still out of wack (forget about 2002). Look for prices to go to 1997, possibly not even adjusted for inflation. Why does everyone listen to the parrots on wall street, NAR, builders who say that by 2009 or 2010 it will recover? As prices keep falling, it will be IMPOSSIBLE to sell. We have not had ANY fallout from the current pricing of homes yet…. Just a few short sales! Wait for the pain! It could take a few years to really start the pain and another decade to live through the pain.
p.s. I DON’T hope for this scenario… I am not a sadist! But I am a numbers guy and am not afraid to look at historical data and our current situation as it really is…
ParticipantStansd… No bashing here! I agree with some elements of the reasoning for a quick change, but I fear it will be in financial markets not homes. Here is what I feel is a more likely scenario.
Stock market volatility, but not too much drop (maybe 1-2K over the next couple of years (could be worse)). Credit tightening. More importantly, home prices falling year over year…. Why? Because people still think that the prices now are somewhat high but normal, they don’t realize that prices should be at about 50%-60% of where they are now. Look at the Case-Shiller graph. Our graph is actually much worse (much higher highs, much lower lows in CA – especially in SD.
Over the next few years, banks are NOT going to have easy 7% loans…. Expect them to be 8% and up as even if the fed drops rates, the differential will not be enough profit for banks while the home prices are dropping. Price drops will destroy equity (it will just be GONE! – It never existed anyway except for those with the foresight to exchange their properties with someone else holding the bag). As the equity tumbles, the consumer, already barely hanging on credit wise, will stop spending. The economy will suffer, jobs will be lost, cycle of economic downturns, recession might become depression.
The biggest problem is that people (even on this forum) really don’t see that 2000 prices were still out of wack (forget about 2002). Look for prices to go to 1997, possibly not even adjusted for inflation. Why does everyone listen to the parrots on wall street, NAR, builders who say that by 2009 or 2010 it will recover? As prices keep falling, it will be IMPOSSIBLE to sell. We have not had ANY fallout from the current pricing of homes yet…. Just a few short sales! Wait for the pain! It could take a few years to really start the pain and another decade to live through the pain.
p.s. I DON’T hope for this scenario… I am not a sadist! But I am a numbers guy and am not afraid to look at historical data and our current situation as it really is…
ParticipantOne of my favorite books…Thanks for reminding me of the home the poor people bought. It is very apropos! I can’t stop remembering about the sausages and how the milk was blue and death to the children that drank it. Horrible and awesome book. Sort of like manufacturing in China right now! (Seriously – there are a lot of similarities!)
ParticipantOne of my favorite books…Thanks for reminding me of the home the poor people bought. It is very apropos! I can’t stop remembering about the sausages and how the milk was blue and death to the children that drank it. Horrible and awesome book. Sort of like manufacturing in China right now! (Seriously – there are a lot of similarities!)
ParticipantOne of my favorite books…Thanks for reminding me of the home the poor people bought. It is very apropos! I can’t stop remembering about the sausages and how the milk was blue and death to the children that drank it. Horrible and awesome book. Sort of like manufacturing in China right now! (Seriously – there are a lot of similarities!)
ParticipantI don’t get it…. Why would prices only go to 2002 levels? This makes no sense to me. I hate to be the gloom and doomer – but I don’t think that 2002 prices are realistic.
Look at the Case-Shiller Graph.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
I think that prices will go down to about 1998 levels. Remember, there were people bailing on SD home prices in the early 2000’s. There were articles about how crazy prices were. We bought in Carmel Valley in 2000. Paid 810K for a house which we sold for 1.4M in 04. Now a neighbor has his house up for 1.7M. 810K was crazy for that house in 2000. Forget about 1.2 in 2002. Do you really think that prices which went up by 15-20% each year will then only fall back to 2002?
My house in CV was 450K in 1995. In 2000 it was 810K. Again remember, that we considered (and everyone else I knew) that 810K was a crazy large amount of money for that house.
I am AMAZED at the reluctance of people believing that they are in a bubble, even when it is bursting. I am amazed at how people believe that with 1-3% interest rates (2002?) that this is a normal part of the market. That house should be 700K… It will be 700K again. 2002 prices were still brutally above where they should have been.
First of all — DON’T believe the CRAP you are hearing in the papers and on TV. The “Experts” claim that prices will still fall be a few percent until 2008-9. Now some are saying 2010. These are the same experts which said that we would have a flat market this year (and recover by the end of 2007).
Scenario. People are incredibly afraid of real estate right now. Only idiots are buying houses now (getting that free kitchen and the right to own a mortgage!). This will continue as more and more fallout in the market happens. Do you really think that the market has fallen? It is just DEAD. Falling happens over time, just as rising prices do. It will go down and down. Equity will be DESTROYED. This will savage the economy. Prices will continue to fall to the affordability level.
Also realize that the Case-Shiller graph is the NATIONAL average…. Our graph would have a much higher amplitude tha n the national graph. Case shiller shows that through 2006 we were 200% growth…. In reality this boom has gone up almost 300%… There is NO reason that it couldn’t even go negative as the economy goes into a depression. If you think that this is impossible – just look at history…
I am not hoping for this, I am just afraid of this.
ParticipantI don’t get it…. Why would prices only go to 2002 levels? This makes no sense to me. I hate to be the gloom and doomer – but I don’t think that 2002 prices are realistic.
Look at the Case-Shiller Graph.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
I think that prices will go down to about 1998 levels. Remember, there were people bailing on SD home prices in the early 2000’s. There were articles about how crazy prices were. We bought in Carmel Valley in 2000. Paid 810K for a house which we sold for 1.4M in 04. Now a neighbor has his house up for 1.7M. 810K was crazy for that house in 2000. Forget about 1.2 in 2002. Do you really think that prices which went up by 15-20% each year will then only fall back to 2002?
My house in CV was 450K in 1995. In 2000 it was 810K. Again remember, that we considered (and everyone else I knew) that 810K was a crazy large amount of money for that house.
I am AMAZED at the reluctance of people believing that they are in a bubble, even when it is bursting. I am amazed at how people believe that with 1-3% interest rates (2002?) that this is a normal part of the market. That house should be 700K… It will be 700K again. 2002 prices were still brutally above where they should have been.
First of all — DON’T believe the CRAP you are hearing in the papers and on TV. The “Experts” claim that prices will still fall be a few percent until 2008-9. Now some are saying 2010. These are the same experts which said that we would have a flat market this year (and recover by the end of 2007).
Scenario. People are incredibly afraid of real estate right now. Only idiots are buying houses now (getting that free kitchen and the right to own a mortgage!). This will continue as more and more fallout in the market happens. Do you really think that the market has fallen? It is just DEAD. Falling happens over time, just as rising prices do. It will go down and down. Equity will be DESTROYED. This will savage the economy. Prices will continue to fall to the affordability level.
Also realize that the Case-Shiller graph is the NATIONAL average…. Our graph would have a much higher amplitude tha n the national graph. Case shiller shows that through 2006 we were 200% growth…. In reality this boom has gone up almost 300%… There is NO reason that it couldn’t even go negative as the economy goes into a depression. If you think that this is impossible – just look at history…
I am not hoping for this, I am just afraid of this.
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