[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eventually as the middle and up reach stability (a few years from now) we will have affordable entry level homes and homeowners (not homebdebters) that have been in them for several years and now have substantial equity in them. When these folks decide to move up they will have the means to and voila!!! Back in balance.[/quote]

sdr – thanks for the insight. I’m wondering if the people buying are downsizing. During the bubble a lot of middle class families upgraded. On the way down are they downgrading back to something they can afford?

What you say makes sense, but I tend to think first we will see several years of slower declines, and then a few years of no appreciation (5-7yrs). I wouldn’t expect prices to be higher than they are today for at least 5 years. Though SD may be further ahead in that cycle than my area.

Don’t forget the renters. People who have no equity still need to be able to afford to buy for prices to rise again. With tighter lending standards, rising unemployment, and falling wages that may be a while.

Won’t somebody please think of the renters!?!

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eventually as the middle and up reach stability (a few years from now) we will have affordable entry level homes and homeowners (not homebdebters) that have been in them for several years and now have substantial equity in them. When these folks decide to move up they will have the means to and voila!!! Back in balance.[/quote]

sdr – thanks for the insight. I’m wondering if the people buying are downsizing. During the bubble a lot of middle class families upgraded. On the way down are they downgrading back to something they can afford?

What you say makes sense, but I tend to think first we will see several years of slower declines, and then a few years of no appreciation (5-7yrs). I wouldn’t expect prices to be higher than they are today for at least 5 years. Though SD may be further ahead in that cycle than my area.

Don’t forget the renters. People who have no equity still need to be able to afford to buy for prices to rise again. With tighter lending standards, rising unemployment, and falling wages that may be a while.

Won’t somebody please think of the renters!?!

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eventually as the middle and up reach stability (a few years from now) we will have affordable entry level homes and homeowners (not homebdebters) that have been in them for several years and now have substantial equity in them. When these folks decide to move up they will have the means to and voila!!! Back in balance.[/quote]

sdr – thanks for the insight. I’m wondering if the people buying are downsizing. During the bubble a lot of middle class families upgraded. On the way down are they downgrading back to something they can afford?

What you say makes sense, but I tend to think first we will see several years of slower declines, and then a few years of no appreciation (5-7yrs). I wouldn’t expect prices to be higher than they are today for at least 5 years. Though SD may be further ahead in that cycle than my area.

Don’t forget the renters. People who have no equity still need to be able to afford to buy for prices to rise again. With tighter lending standards, rising unemployment, and falling wages that may be a while.

Won’t somebody please think of the renters!?!

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eventually as the middle and up reach stability (a few years from now) we will have affordable entry level homes and homeowners (not homebdebters) that have been in them for several years and now have substantial equity in them. When these folks decide to move up they will have the means to and voila!!! Back in balance.[/quote]

sdr – thanks for the insight. I’m wondering if the people buying are downsizing. During the bubble a lot of middle class families upgraded. On the way down are they downgrading back to something they can afford?

What you say makes sense, but I tend to think first we will see several years of slower declines, and then a few years of no appreciation (5-7yrs). I wouldn’t expect prices to be higher than they are today for at least 5 years. Though SD may be further ahead in that cycle than my area.

Don’t forget the renters. People who have no equity still need to be able to afford to buy for prices to rise again. With tighter lending standards, rising unemployment, and falling wages that may be a while.

Won’t somebody please think of the renters!?!

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]Eventually as the middle and up reach stability (a few years from now) we will have affordable entry level homes and homeowners (not homebdebters) that have been in them for several years and now have substantial equity in them. When these folks decide to move up they will have the means to and voila!!! Back in balance.[/quote]

sdr – thanks for the insight. I’m wondering if the people buying are downsizing. During the bubble a lot of middle class families upgraded. On the way down are they downgrading back to something they can afford?

What you say makes sense, but I tend to think first we will see several years of slower declines, and then a few years of no appreciation (5-7yrs). I wouldn’t expect prices to be higher than they are today for at least 5 years. Though SD may be further ahead in that cycle than my area.

Don’t forget the renters. People who have no equity still need to be able to afford to buy for prices to rise again. With tighter lending standards, rising unemployment, and falling wages that may be a while.

Won’t somebody please think of the renters!?!

[cr]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I say it’s better to ignore what anyone says and run the numbers.
[/quote]

That too. Of course that’s what got the banks in trouble. Although if I’m honest with myself it will be when my wife “feels” like it’s the right house.

[cr]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I say it’s better to ignore what anyone says and run the numbers.
[/quote]

That too. Of course that’s what got the banks in trouble. Although if I’m honest with myself it will be when my wife “feels” like it’s the right house.

[cr]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I say it’s better to ignore what anyone says and run the numbers.
[/quote]

That too. Of course that’s what got the banks in trouble. Although if I’m honest with myself it will be when my wife “feels” like it’s the right house.

[cr]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I say it’s better to ignore what anyone says and run the numbers.
[/quote]

That too. Of course that’s what got the banks in trouble. Although if I’m honest with myself it will be when my wife “feels” like it’s the right house.

[cr]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I say it’s better to ignore what anyone says and run the numbers.
[/quote]

That too. Of course that’s what got the banks in trouble. Although if I’m honest with myself it will be when my wife “feels” like it’s the right house.

[cr]

It doesn’t matter how high the % of people buying with 20% down seems right now, what matters is how few of them in total there are, vs. all the people who aren’t even trying to buy, are trying to offload an upside down home, or are waiting for the sheriff to come by.

There is nowhere near enough potential buyers with 20% saved up to turn the market around. Just look at the US savings rate. And a $1200 stimulus check won’t buy much of a house.

So prices will continue to decline.

At the top everyone said buy. I’ll buy when everyone says sell.

[cr]

It doesn’t matter how high the % of people buying with 20% down seems right now, what matters is how few of them in total there are, vs. all the people who aren’t even trying to buy, are trying to offload an upside down home, or are waiting for the sheriff to come by.

There is nowhere near enough potential buyers with 20% saved up to turn the market around. Just look at the US savings rate. And a $1200 stimulus check won’t buy much of a house.

So prices will continue to decline.

At the top everyone said buy. I’ll buy when everyone says sell.

[cr]

It doesn’t matter how high the % of people buying with 20% down seems right now, what matters is how few of them in total there are, vs. all the people who aren’t even trying to buy, are trying to offload an upside down home, or are waiting for the sheriff to come by.

There is nowhere near enough potential buyers with 20% saved up to turn the market around. Just look at the US savings rate. And a $1200 stimulus check won’t buy much of a house.

So prices will continue to decline.

At the top everyone said buy. I’ll buy when everyone says sell.

[cr]

It doesn’t matter how high the % of people buying with 20% down seems right now, what matters is how few of them in total there are, vs. all the people who aren’t even trying to buy, are trying to offload an upside down home, or are waiting for the sheriff to come by.

There is nowhere near enough potential buyers with 20% saved up to turn the market around. Just look at the US savings rate. And a $1200 stimulus check won’t buy much of a house.

So prices will continue to decline.

At the top everyone said buy. I’ll buy when everyone says sell.

[cr]

It doesn’t matter how high the % of people buying with 20% down seems right now, what matters is how few of them in total there are, vs. all the people who aren’t even trying to buy, are trying to offload an upside down home, or are waiting for the sheriff to come by.

There is nowhere near enough potential buyers with 20% saved up to turn the market around. Just look at the US savings rate. And a $1200 stimulus check won’t buy much of a house.

So prices will continue to decline.

At the top everyone said buy. I’ll buy when everyone says sell.

[Author]

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