Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
cr
ParticipantSome on Wall Street are expecting another 50pt cut next FED meeting, under the premise that it is needed to stimulate the stock market, and the justification that it will help exports.
I don’t buy it. If they cut them again oil will go over $100 and the relatively few companies that benefit from a low dollar will be faced with higher cost everything else as will the American public.
Just look around your home or office and ask yourself how much of the stuff you see is made in the US or somewhere else? Even US grown or produced food will go up with gas.
The FED has become the rich uncle who spoils Wall Street at the expense of John Q Customer. All John has to do is stop spending money, and he may soon have no choice.
ParticipantSome on Wall Street are expecting another 50pt cut next FED meeting, under the premise that it is needed to stimulate the stock market, and the justification that it will help exports.
I don’t buy it. If they cut them again oil will go over $100 and the relatively few companies that benefit from a low dollar will be faced with higher cost everything else as will the American public.
Just look around your home or office and ask yourself how much of the stuff you see is made in the US or somewhere else? Even US grown or produced food will go up with gas.
The FED has become the rich uncle who spoils Wall Street at the expense of John Q Customer. All John has to do is stop spending money, and he may soon have no choice.
ParticipantSo anyway, back on topic here-
I believe someone on this site, either in this post or another commented from “mullet-head’s” analysis that this is just another form or repackaging toxic mortgages and selling them off to uninformed “investors” all under a new name.
After 3 days of drops, and down again today I think money managers will be a little more cautious, and I certainly hope they will run from anything associated with sub-prime.
It’s still got a long way to go.
ParticipantSo anyway, back on topic here-
I believe someone on this site, either in this post or another commented from “mullet-head’s” analysis that this is just another form or repackaging toxic mortgages and selling them off to uninformed “investors” all under a new name.
After 3 days of drops, and down again today I think money managers will be a little more cautious, and I certainly hope they will run from anything associated with sub-prime.
It’s still got a long way to go.
October 17, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: “It’s going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover” #89656ParticipantI too tend to think the “experts” extrapolate in straight lines. And we’ve seen it from both sides, in both directions. Month to month sales are up and we’re through the bubble, they’re down and they just now start saying the worst is yet to come.
I trned to agree with a 3-4 timelines best case scenario. At worst it will go down as far and as quickly or slowly as it went up, probably from 2000-2001 prices.
This article in the Daily News today is more evidence of dropping prices:
http://www.dailynews.com/ci_7198220
On average, a foreclosed property sells 20.3 percent below its market value. The median discount level is slightly lower in Orange County at 19.6 percent compared with 21 percent in Los Angeles County.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
A typical home that goes into foreclosure was originally purchased for $465,000 in Los Angeles County and $532,000 in Orange County.
The average sales price of a foreclosed property is $447,000 in Los Angeles County and $479,000 in Orange County.
October 17, 2007 at 1:59 PM in reply to: “It’s going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover” #89665ParticipantI too tend to think the “experts” extrapolate in straight lines. And we’ve seen it from both sides, in both directions. Month to month sales are up and we’re through the bubble, they’re down and they just now start saying the worst is yet to come.
I trned to agree with a 3-4 timelines best case scenario. At worst it will go down as far and as quickly or slowly as it went up, probably from 2000-2001 prices.
This article in the Daily News today is more evidence of dropping prices:
http://www.dailynews.com/ci_7198220
On average, a foreclosed property sells 20.3 percent below its market value. The median discount level is slightly lower in Orange County at 19.6 percent compared with 21 percent in Los Angeles County.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
A typical home that goes into foreclosure was originally purchased for $465,000 in Los Angeles County and $532,000 in Orange County.
The average sales price of a foreclosed property is $447,000 in Los Angeles County and $479,000 in Orange County.
October 16, 2007 at 10:29 AM in reply to: Paulson Urges Action on Housing Crisis – ‘Significant Risk’ to Economy #89316ParticipantBut Paulson also stated, “When investors are relieved of the cost of bad decisions, they are more likely to repeat their mistakes. I have no interest in bailing out lenders or property speculators.”
People who bought a house (they couldn’t afford), lived in it, and intended to resell it when their loan adjusted are “speculators” too as far as I’m concnered.
October 16, 2007 at 10:29 AM in reply to: Paulson Urges Action on Housing Crisis – ‘Significant Risk’ to Economy #89325ParticipantBut Paulson also stated, “When investors are relieved of the cost of bad decisions, they are more likely to repeat their mistakes. I have no interest in bailing out lenders or property speculators.”
People who bought a house (they couldn’t afford), lived in it, and intended to resell it when their loan adjusted are “speculators” too as far as I’m concnered.
ParticipantInteresting how Bernanke said, ‘”I’d like to know what those damn things are worth,” referring in general to complicated financial instruments that repackaged debt — bad debt, in some cases.’
And btw by “unnoficial ” I meant “unofficial,” this thing needs an edit option.
In some cases there is bad debt. Does anyone know the $ value of every defaulted mortgage in the past 12 months?
ParticipantInteresting how Bernanke said, ‘”I’d like to know what those damn things are worth,” referring in general to complicated financial instruments that repackaged debt — bad debt, in some cases.’
And btw by “unnoficial ” I meant “unofficial,” this thing needs an edit option.
In some cases there is bad debt. Does anyone know the $ value of every defaulted mortgage in the past 12 months?
ParticipantThis is a no brainer. Don’t buy from either and let them both suffer during the correction.
Come back in 3-4 years and buy at early 2000 prices.
ParticipantThis is a no brainer. Don’t buy from either and let them both suffer during the correction.
Come back in 3-4 years and buy at early 2000 prices.
ParticipantThat’s quite a claim f_l_u. What makes you expect an impending crash in China?
Considering their (albeit poor) population, growing currency, and the amount of US dollars they hold, the only thing they have to fear is American’s who stop spending more money than they have. Once thei rcitizens start spending even a fraction of what American’s do, they won’t need any of the US bonds.
ParticipantThat’s quite a claim f_l_u. What makes you expect an impending crash in China?
Considering their (albeit poor) population, growing currency, and the amount of US dollars they hold, the only thing they have to fear is American’s who stop spending more money than they have. Once thei rcitizens start spending even a fraction of what American’s do, they won’t need any of the US bonds.
-
AuthorPosts
