[cr]

Well said. It hasn’t changed for me, though I’m not looking in SD. A year ago anyone who asked me how long I thought prices would fall looked at me incredulously when I said (conservatively) 3-5 years.

Sure things have gotten better for those waiting, but look at the bigger picture and there is not a single factor that can help housing reach a bottom any time soon:

-Lending statndards: back where they should be
-Alt-A/Prime resets: as the bubble went on the lending got worse. A lot of damage still to come
-Inventory: may be down seasonally but foreclosures set records every month
-Sales: dominated by REOs and hurting other must sell inventory, or those who just want to sell
-Jobs: unemployment up, growth negative
-Interest rates: LIBOR up, and talk grows of Fed hikes
-Demographics: baby boomers will downsize, move to lower cost areas
-Savings: flat or negative, worst in history
-Inflation: soaring prices = less to spend on housing

This isn’t a doomsday dream list, it’s reality. It doesn’t mean you can’t find a good deal, it just means that good deal could get better.

[cr]

Well said. It hasn’t changed for me, though I’m not looking in SD. A year ago anyone who asked me how long I thought prices would fall looked at me incredulously when I said (conservatively) 3-5 years.

Sure things have gotten better for those waiting, but look at the bigger picture and there is not a single factor that can help housing reach a bottom any time soon:

-Lending statndards: back where they should be
-Alt-A/Prime resets: as the bubble went on the lending got worse. A lot of damage still to come
-Inventory: may be down seasonally but foreclosures set records every month
-Sales: dominated by REOs and hurting other must sell inventory, or those who just want to sell
-Jobs: unemployment up, growth negative
-Interest rates: LIBOR up, and talk grows of Fed hikes
-Demographics: baby boomers will downsize, move to lower cost areas
-Savings: flat or negative, worst in history
-Inflation: soaring prices = less to spend on housing

This isn’t a doomsday dream list, it’s reality. It doesn’t mean you can’t find a good deal, it just means that good deal could get better.

[cr]

Well said. It hasn’t changed for me, though I’m not looking in SD. A year ago anyone who asked me how long I thought prices would fall looked at me incredulously when I said (conservatively) 3-5 years.

Sure things have gotten better for those waiting, but look at the bigger picture and there is not a single factor that can help housing reach a bottom any time soon:

-Lending statndards: back where they should be
-Alt-A/Prime resets: as the bubble went on the lending got worse. A lot of damage still to come
-Inventory: may be down seasonally but foreclosures set records every month
-Sales: dominated by REOs and hurting other must sell inventory, or those who just want to sell
-Jobs: unemployment up, growth negative
-Interest rates: LIBOR up, and talk grows of Fed hikes
-Demographics: baby boomers will downsize, move to lower cost areas
-Savings: flat or negative, worst in history
-Inflation: soaring prices = less to spend on housing

This isn’t a doomsday dream list, it’s reality. It doesn’t mean you can’t find a good deal, it just means that good deal could get better.

[cr]

Well said. It hasn’t changed for me, though I’m not looking in SD. A year ago anyone who asked me how long I thought prices would fall looked at me incredulously when I said (conservatively) 3-5 years.

Sure things have gotten better for those waiting, but look at the bigger picture and there is not a single factor that can help housing reach a bottom any time soon:

-Lending statndards: back where they should be
-Alt-A/Prime resets: as the bubble went on the lending got worse. A lot of damage still to come
-Inventory: may be down seasonally but foreclosures set records every month
-Sales: dominated by REOs and hurting other must sell inventory, or those who just want to sell
-Jobs: unemployment up, growth negative
-Interest rates: LIBOR up, and talk grows of Fed hikes
-Demographics: baby boomers will downsize, move to lower cost areas
-Savings: flat or negative, worst in history
-Inflation: soaring prices = less to spend on housing

This isn’t a doomsday dream list, it’s reality. It doesn’t mean you can’t find a good deal, it just means that good deal could get better.

[cr]

Well said. It hasn’t changed for me, though I’m not looking in SD. A year ago anyone who asked me how long I thought prices would fall looked at me incredulously when I said (conservatively) 3-5 years.

Sure things have gotten better for those waiting, but look at the bigger picture and there is not a single factor that can help housing reach a bottom any time soon:

-Lending statndards: back where they should be
-Alt-A/Prime resets: as the bubble went on the lending got worse. A lot of damage still to come
-Inventory: may be down seasonally but foreclosures set records every month
-Sales: dominated by REOs and hurting other must sell inventory, or those who just want to sell
-Jobs: unemployment up, growth negative
-Interest rates: LIBOR up, and talk grows of Fed hikes
-Demographics: baby boomers will downsize, move to lower cost areas
-Savings: flat or negative, worst in history
-Inflation: soaring prices = less to spend on housing

This isn’t a doomsday dream list, it’s reality. It doesn’t mean you can’t find a good deal, it just means that good deal could get better.

[cr]

Countrywide is a joke. There must be lights on but nobody home.

Their # of REOs in CA has decreased from around 4000 a few months ago to about 3200. A 25% drop in 60 days amidst record setting foreclosure numbers? Riiiiight….and housing will turn around by 2009.

This is from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com and Jim the Realtor:

“Since the end of April when I had 20 properties sent to me, only three have made it to market. Another one got rescinded (stand-by, this one will be a story in itself) and three others have extenuating circumstances why they have stalled. But literally the other 13 are sitting vacant, waiting for Countrywide’s asset managers to give me the green light to put them on the market.”

So of 20 properties in the pipeline, 3 are listed for sale while 17 for one reason or another are in queue. (that’s 5.6 shadow/phantom properties for 1 single active listing). Maybe Jim is just having some bad luck with his C-wide REOs? Or should we multiply 12,287 by 5.6 to get 68,807, the true REO inventory out there for C-wide???

Or how about 5.6 * 3200 just for CA?

[cr]

Countrywide is a joke. There must be lights on but nobody home.

Their # of REOs in CA has decreased from around 4000 a few months ago to about 3200. A 25% drop in 60 days amidst record setting foreclosure numbers? Riiiiight….and housing will turn around by 2009.

This is from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com and Jim the Realtor:

“Since the end of April when I had 20 properties sent to me, only three have made it to market. Another one got rescinded (stand-by, this one will be a story in itself) and three others have extenuating circumstances why they have stalled. But literally the other 13 are sitting vacant, waiting for Countrywide’s asset managers to give me the green light to put them on the market.”

So of 20 properties in the pipeline, 3 are listed for sale while 17 for one reason or another are in queue. (that’s 5.6 shadow/phantom properties for 1 single active listing). Maybe Jim is just having some bad luck with his C-wide REOs? Or should we multiply 12,287 by 5.6 to get 68,807, the true REO inventory out there for C-wide???

Or how about 5.6 * 3200 just for CA?

[cr]

Countrywide is a joke. There must be lights on but nobody home.

Their # of REOs in CA has decreased from around 4000 a few months ago to about 3200. A 25% drop in 60 days amidst record setting foreclosure numbers? Riiiiight….and housing will turn around by 2009.

This is from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com and Jim the Realtor:

“Since the end of April when I had 20 properties sent to me, only three have made it to market. Another one got rescinded (stand-by, this one will be a story in itself) and three others have extenuating circumstances why they have stalled. But literally the other 13 are sitting vacant, waiting for Countrywide’s asset managers to give me the green light to put them on the market.”

So of 20 properties in the pipeline, 3 are listed for sale while 17 for one reason or another are in queue. (that’s 5.6 shadow/phantom properties for 1 single active listing). Maybe Jim is just having some bad luck with his C-wide REOs? Or should we multiply 12,287 by 5.6 to get 68,807, the true REO inventory out there for C-wide???

Or how about 5.6 * 3200 just for CA?

[cr]

Countrywide is a joke. There must be lights on but nobody home.

Their # of REOs in CA has decreased from around 4000 a few months ago to about 3200. A 25% drop in 60 days amidst record setting foreclosure numbers? Riiiiight….and housing will turn around by 2009.

This is from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com and Jim the Realtor:

“Since the end of April when I had 20 properties sent to me, only three have made it to market. Another one got rescinded (stand-by, this one will be a story in itself) and three others have extenuating circumstances why they have stalled. But literally the other 13 are sitting vacant, waiting for Countrywide’s asset managers to give me the green light to put them on the market.”

So of 20 properties in the pipeline, 3 are listed for sale while 17 for one reason or another are in queue. (that’s 5.6 shadow/phantom properties for 1 single active listing). Maybe Jim is just having some bad luck with his C-wide REOs? Or should we multiply 12,287 by 5.6 to get 68,807, the true REO inventory out there for C-wide???

Or how about 5.6 * 3200 just for CA?

[cr]

Countrywide is a joke. There must be lights on but nobody home.

Their # of REOs in CA has decreased from around 4000 a few months ago to about 3200. A 25% drop in 60 days amidst record setting foreclosure numbers? Riiiiight….and housing will turn around by 2009.

This is from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com and Jim the Realtor:

“Since the end of April when I had 20 properties sent to me, only three have made it to market. Another one got rescinded (stand-by, this one will be a story in itself) and three others have extenuating circumstances why they have stalled. But literally the other 13 are sitting vacant, waiting for Countrywide’s asset managers to give me the green light to put them on the market.”

So of 20 properties in the pipeline, 3 are listed for sale while 17 for one reason or another are in queue. (that’s 5.6 shadow/phantom properties for 1 single active listing). Maybe Jim is just having some bad luck with his C-wide REOs? Or should we multiply 12,287 by 5.6 to get 68,807, the true REO inventory out there for C-wide???

Or how about 5.6 * 3200 just for CA?

[cr]

“So we’re not going to see rate shocks causing defaults,”

That seems to be the growing consensus these days, but you have to expect that a lot of these people intended to sell anyway when their rate went up despite their job status, under the belief at the time that homes would go up forever.

What remains to be seen is how much worse than subprime everything else will be, but so far it’s not looking pretty.

[cr]

“So we’re not going to see rate shocks causing defaults,”

That seems to be the growing consensus these days, but you have to expect that a lot of these people intended to sell anyway when their rate went up despite their job status, under the belief at the time that homes would go up forever.

What remains to be seen is how much worse than subprime everything else will be, but so far it’s not looking pretty.

[cr]

“So we’re not going to see rate shocks causing defaults,”

That seems to be the growing consensus these days, but you have to expect that a lot of these people intended to sell anyway when their rate went up despite their job status, under the belief at the time that homes would go up forever.

What remains to be seen is how much worse than subprime everything else will be, but so far it’s not looking pretty.

[cr]

“So we’re not going to see rate shocks causing defaults,”

That seems to be the growing consensus these days, but you have to expect that a lot of these people intended to sell anyway when their rate went up despite their job status, under the belief at the time that homes would go up forever.

What remains to be seen is how much worse than subprime everything else will be, but so far it’s not looking pretty.

[cr]

“So we’re not going to see rate shocks causing defaults,”

That seems to be the growing consensus these days, but you have to expect that a lot of these people intended to sell anyway when their rate went up despite their job status, under the belief at the time that homes would go up forever.

What remains to be seen is how much worse than subprime everything else will be, but so far it’s not looking pretty.

[Author]

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