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Maybe someone show show Mr Fisher the definition of dead cat bounce.
And yes global economy is accelerating, mostly as all the work accelerates its way into India and China.
Wages are deflating, and worse yet, cities used to be high wages and in a real recession cities where people with higher wages worked will start lay off’s while the small towns start hiring and people will move to those towns where they will do the same job for 1/2 the $$ cos their cost of living is now less than 1/2. The last few years, there has been no difference in wages from big cities to small towns. Now we are begining recession. Fasten your belts, this is going to be erratic and painful.
Cool.
Srinath.

[Cow_tipping]

When your shoe shine boy asks you for a house flipping tip, and when you go, sorry I dont have one, he gives you one … run back to your house, sell it and move into an apartment. Its gonna get ugly …
Now when did a used car salesman say the car has cigarette smoke in it. He says its “been plated with cadmium and insects cannot live in it” Believe that over your own nose and you deserve to be robbed blind.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

IMHO … they are a must. Lets see, if you had to buy in this market, no matter how low you bid the price and get them to agree, would you be comfortable with the fact that values can drop below your price … so unless I am offered like 30% cash of original list price after I negotiate the purchase price down to 50% of asking, I’d not buy.
OK its like this, say some shack is listed at 1 million. First off, I’d negotiate the price to 1/2 mil. Then make them give me 300K cash at closing. So there … see how it works.
Its a must. The more over priced the McShitbox is, and the more of a Shit box it is, the more cash back I’d ask for.
As always its great and hence frowned upon by people and banks.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

Oh yea … please wake me up when it hits 75% … cos that’s how much cheaper it has to be before I’d consider living in NY state. Gimme a break, its over priced at 75%.
We need a huge oil shock before companies realise the importance of telecommuting and at that instant the tundra will become worthless.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

Dead cat bounce ??? More like dead cat convulsing, its yet to die.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

I think if volumes stay low the starving realt-whores will in a month or 2 promptly throw “the good time to buy or sell a home” crap out the window and throw their weight behind the fact that … “House prices are down and we are super over stocked, you need a relator to bash the living crap out of the sellers now” mantra. then its going to be a short time before 99% of agents become buyers agents only and the Sellers are left in the dust unless their houses are priced right or they listen to sense. through it all, builders will build you houses for 1/4th of what they were building them for in 05 and laugh all the way to the bank.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

Submitted by Chris Scoreboar… on January 31, 2007 – 10:00am.

However, I think the chances of a 50% decline off the top are zero, I am in the 20% – 25% camp, with 10% already in the books.

Its going to decline to where fundamentals dictate. Instead of actually discussing percentages we should look at that.
20-25% might be well the fundamentals if there have been a lot of high paying jobs that have moved into the area. I however think all the high paying jobs have been sent to India and China and the late 90’s market is itself a fantasy.
Typically 3X income is your house price. If its a great area maybe 4X income. Assuming all of the greater SD is a desirable area (and yes some of it definetly is) that is my thought. Maybe wages will sky rocket in SD and make it so in the next 2-3 years.
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Cow_tipping.

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Talk is really really expensive … I believe the NAR spent 40 mil on 10 lies and a poorly drawn cartoon.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

I have heard somethings about motrgage rates. It was a while ago and I believe I heard it while flipping channels or something. I believe they said that mortgage rates run contrary to regular supply and demand. As in as demand drops interest rates go up because it is related to yeild of the bond or something. So as loan volumes go down, interests will go up because that is interest they pay on bonds. Is that about right ???
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

1. Make an offer for 25% below asking.
2. When they accept it, disappear and come back in with an agent and offer another 25% under that.
3. if they accept, run from there to a different builder and offer them somewhere around your new discounted price.
4. Repeat till you run into a wall.
Back in 2002 I offered the same way on a beazer house. I found 5 that they wanted to unload and offered them the cheapest price per sqft they were selling another house for and converting it to this one’s sqft. They argued back and forth and finally settled on ~2500 more cos it had a crawl space. My realtor pointed out that power lines were visible near that house. It wasn’t under them, but I could see them. I pulled out and bought that other house with all discounts from this one applied to it.
I then cancelled 2 days before close cos I didn;t like some of the things they did in construction.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

No sir, we are fighting for liquid gold sir, the juice of the earth, the light sweet sweet sweet mother of all crude sir … what … you guys didn’t know that.
This is how it will work.
The oil Belongs to the Iraqi people – you must have heard our supreme leader religious tyrant rant that … The iraqi people now want to kill each other. So we can now police them and keep them from killing each other and charge them for it. Then we can in a covert operation sell them the guns to kill each other and charge them for it. After that we can once again withdraw and sell arms to both sides and let them obliterate each other while we charge them for it. Now that its completely done, we have all the oil in Iraq. Iran, repeat.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

That is too much. I have this 2 million house which my appraiser uncle said is worth 3 million, and I can only affort 35 bucks a month cos I only make $7 at McDonald. Can I get a loan. I can, yea … cool.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

Wont it be nice when every house is the area is million dollars. Yea, they are all high powered executive homes. Yea, everyone is an executive. They are all over 300K a year earners. Easy.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

I have a 97 ford F150 truck and a 2002 mitsubishi diamante. I would second that body panel fit and finish comment, but beyond that a 97 f-150 completely trounces a 2002 diamante. The f-150 has 2X the miles and I fully expect the diamante to be a mess by the time it gets there. Toyota and nissan were worse than the diamante from me checking them out. Atleast most of the diamante was metal. Trucks have been the main bread and butter of american automakers and they have done an extrordinary job of making some that never say die. Older the better IMHO. Econobox jap cars may trump american but come to papa if you’re talking large vehicles. BTW I tow, haul bikes, haul wood and a lot of misc with the truck. Its otherwise a driveway ornament.
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Cow_tipping.

[Cow_tipping]

The 04 and later buyers in bubblicious areas are well under water already. The banks will sell them at market rates. Since the funky financing is now out the window, that means they have to reverse to some sorta tangible number like 3-4X salary and a 10% down. Of course there is 3-10 times the number of houses out there than qualified and able people to buy.
That pushes the market to where it will be based on fundamentals. That = 97 prices ??? nope, the high paying jobs of 97 are now in India and China. Where will it stabilise ??? no clue. Lets just say its 97. Those that bought in 98-03 are now under. I’d anticipate them to all throw in the towel en masse. No one expects houses to be worth less than what they paid, not even the ones that bought last week. The fact that they bought in 03 means they are certain its not going to turn them Upside down. When that certainity is shaken, the fallout will be of biblical (very similar to Bubblical) proportions. Which is why I feel like the dude that got an estate for a tulip during the days of the tulip mania and am still going to get screwed. eevryone is going to be screwed. The ones that partied the hardest, will be screwed the most. The ones that stood by the sidelines in the party will just about make through the hang over … they did breathe fumes of the booze you know.
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Cow_tipping.

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