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September 9, 2021 at 12:59 PM in reply to: Retirement Planning: Reducing Return Target and Risk? #823152September 9, 2021 at 9:05 AM in reply to: Retirement Planning: Reducing Return Target and Risk? #823144
CoronitaParticipantuh huh
September 8, 2021 at 9:05 PM in reply to: Retirement Planning: Reducing Return Target and Risk? #823141CoronitaParticipant[quote=gzz]Curious why you need 120k in retirement with no mortgage on your primary.
25k for medical, 10k for cars is pretty rich, 5k on average for for home improvements.
That leaves 80k a year or $219/day. Easy to spend that while traveling in first world areas. $250/day of lux travel times 100 days a year comes to 25k. first class flights, 5k a year.
That then leaves 50k a year.
Your passive income likely will increase over time, even by my pessimistic assumptions for long term returns. Your medical expense will drop when you hit 65 and get medicare, and you will start getting I assume about 25k a year in social security, plus whatever your spouse gets.
I think both you and escoguy are making up reasons to delay retirement and continue working. The 120k requirement for you, the “let me deduct 30% from the value of my primary assets” for him.
I don’t mean to be judgmental with this observation, early retirement when you’re fit and have something to contribute is at least slightly immoral, so I see it as you all as inventing reasons that don’t seem to hold up to scrutiny to do the right thing morally.[/quote]
25k for medical is conservative if you actually have health issues. Also, what if your kid has the same health issues?
And no my medical expenses will not be dropping. My baseline medical expenditures are annually is
1. 1 abdomen MRI annually
2. 1 Upper endoscopy (camera down the throat)
3. 1 Lower endoscopy (camera up the ass)
4. 1 Capsule Endoscopy (camera in a pill that goes through small intestines)
5. 1 Ultrasound for thyroid
6. 1 trip to the ER probably every 2 years to clear random bowel obstructions that seem to happen any time.MRI is around $15k if not covered by insurance
Endoscopies 2-4 is around $30k if not covered by insurance
Ultrasound is around $4-5k if not covered by insurance
ER visit depends on length, but last time 1 day stay was around $25k.Don’t even get me started with dental… Fortunately, my teeth are decent. But do you folks have any idea how expensive dental is if you actually need major work done? Look up the prices for a root canal, tooth extraction, oral surgery, crown, or implant. Implants are around $5000 at least, and most dental plan have a cap at $2000-3000/year.
You will not get that much for social security if you retire early. And unless they fix the medicare fund, that might be depleted in 15 years.
Early retirement doesn’t mean sitting on your ass all day rubbing it in people’s face that you were born with money, like some people do *cough* high altitude piggington handle person *cough*. Early retirement means, being able to do what you want to do more under your terms and or maybe spending more time doing like teaching stem class to kids…
I think a lot of people fear losing their job because of the financial loss and not making ends meet. Me? Financial loss from job loss never worried me… I’m fearful of losing my job, because I would take that as an insult that I had to leave under their terms not mine and not having been able to give the last word, middle finger to an ahole boss…
As far as me being fit… I had my fair share of health crisis when I was in my 30ies. Some of it was career ending in some regards, and some that took my life down different paths. I never skipped a beat on working, earning, building even when I was in the hospital. I already paid my health concerns due. Which is also why covid doesn’t really scare me. If it’s your time, it’s your time. Doesnt mean if you want to live, you can be totally irresponsible. But there’s a point when you do what you can and let the cards fall however the fall.
Covid should be an eye opener for folks. Some easily get it, even with a vaccine. Doesn’t matter what financial background, race, religion, intelligence, etc. Some that get it, it’s no big deal. Others, have bad luck and get screwed over by it. I’m not surprised some people are re-evaluating what’s important in life ….
September 8, 2021 at 9:15 AM in reply to: Retirement Planning: Reducing Return Target and Risk? #823128CoronitaParticipant[quote=ltsddd]
Do you need to tap into your retirement accounts to finance your retirement? If you don’t then why change your investment style? If your portfolio has been working fine for you the last 20 years, it should be expected to be working, more or less, the same way in the next 20 years. Nevertheless, I would ask the same question as I did with the rentals – what do you plan to do in your retirement? Do you still want to spend the same amount of time reading up on stocks and mutual funds, etc..?
In retirement I don’t want to have to worry about growing my wealth as much or anymore. Of the many strategies I read on how to invest safely during your retirement, I like the bucket of money (or a variation of it) the best. Just put it on auto-pilot by splitting your $ into 3 buckets and rebalance once a year and not worry about it.
FInally, congratulations on being financially independent.[/quote]
You know, you got a good point. I think I’m playing it too safe for my retirement accounts and since I can’t touch it for at least 12 years, I should go back in… Thanks.
September 8, 2021 at 9:14 AM in reply to: Retirement Planning: Reducing Return Target and Risk? #823127CoronitaParticipant[quote=ucodegen][quote=Coronita]I am looking at one of my Vanguard accounts I had since 2002. I think it’s the oldest one out of the 26 accounts and it is consistently invested on index funds. Average return has been 7.1%…But there were years that it looked awful, like a deep downturn.
[/quote]
I ran a series on S&P 500 returns from 2000 (because that was a group of 3 really bad years 2000-2002) with data from https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns and got 5.25% annual – not including dividends received from index during that time. If I eliminate the 3 bad years and go from 2003 to 2021 I get 9.00%
[quote=Coronita]
Personally, that’s what I’m trying to avoid. Those deep downturns don’t matter if you have another 10-15 years to wait it out. But it would suck if you are drawing from it right after a downturn.
[/quote]
Looking at the recent data, recovery from 2000-2002 occurred in 2007, but there was a bad downturn in 2008.. but again recovered in early 2013. This does not take into effect dividends from S&P 500 companies.
[quote=Coronita]
I’ve been talking a lot more with people who are seriously considering early retirement. just thinking….I guess it’s part of the ongoing The Great Resignation….lol…[/quote]
Resignation to ones fate?? Anyway, I was laid off in 2008, found I was getting seriously low-balled on job offers and then family issues came up. I ended up living off of investment proceeds. When family issues eased, I found that I was making more on my investments than any wage being offered… so I guess I could say I officially Retired with Resignation.. I liked the work, but management tends to drive me nuts. I think I have experienced too many pointy haired bosses (one of them even looked the part)[/quote]I appreciate you sharing this. Quick question. Given how in demand tech workers are these days, have you considered re-entering the workforce as a contractor? Seems like the barrier to entry is pretty low and the numbers are looking really good. If all else on your own terms. Or do you hate bureaucracy that much ? 🙂
CoronitaParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]”hydraulic lift at home”
Yep top of my wish list too.
To be honest retirement scares the crap out of me.[/quote]
But these actually are decent…
CoronitaParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]If it was more lucrative, I might be interested in shepherding as an old man. I talked to a shepherd in a local preserve who was watching 100 plus grazing sheep for weed control. He seemed to be having a good day. Obviously, need good sun coverage.
Nice how no humans were involved.
I think I prefer goats tho.[/quote]
I sort of want to open my own shop for fun. But I quickly realized working on my car are fun, working on someone else’s car, especially if they are going to be a pain in the azz would not be.
I guess more realistic is when my kid goes off to college in 3 years, I want to be able to hit every track Speed Ventures or SCCA allows me to go. Put a car on a trailer for the weekend and trying to come back in time for school and work isn’t practical for most events.
Other than that, have everything else I need already. ok maybe I need a hydraulic lift at home.CoronitaParticipantThis is a really interesting discussion on how to properly determine net worth and evaluate performance, particularly on things that have not been realized.
I’m not an accountant so for the most part I don’t understand this, lol.
Perhaps, I’m way oversimplifying my goals, but I’m not as concerned about total net worth or appreciation of my net worth also long as I can achieve a steady stream of income from sources other than a job based on what I have, and maintain those stream(s) of income for decades to come.
Ideally, I’d like to have a steam $150k-$200k/year income stream assuming all my major expenses have been paid off (housing, kids education). Some of this comes from rental, but ideally also from other income bearing investments.
If I have a crapload of money, I wouldn’t care how low this return was (up to the point that it would be ideal to at least be above the rate of inflation). And would rather pick the lowest and safest returns that meets that steady income stream and beats inflation slightly in exchange for some more predictability of being able to be consistent 20-30-40+years from now. How I go about doing this, I’m trying to figure this out. I think $90-100k comes from rental income, that I understand could vary and go up and down to, but to some extent is more constant than other things. What I’m trying to get a handle on is, how get the remaining $50-100k/year from other sources.
These unusual 22%+ S&P500 gains are nice, but I wouldn’t count on this being typical for the long term.So I’d like to take some of these usual larger gains these past few years and put them into something more predictable and “stable”… Real estate aside, I think I need about 4-5% consistent return on everything else, with an asterisk. 4-5% on “everything else” would allow me to meet my objectives IF those returns could be used right now..The problem is part of that “everything else” is retirement accounts that cant be touched for another 12 years minimum. So gains in those accounts aren’t going to be very useful in the case of an early retirement. Between retirement and non-retirement, it’s a 50/50% split.
So not sure how to convert some of these short term wins into long term consistency, albeit at a lower return rate. I already tried to do this by reducing my exposure to the domestic stock market, but I don’t think what I’m doing really helps. Because while on UP days, my accounts aren’t rising as fast as someone else fully vested, on down days, my accounts aren’t necessarily going down less than others that are fully vested….they also still take some sizable hits….
I’m trying a little experiment with my kid’s 529 account. I recently exchanged 80% of my kid’s 529 account from traditional indexes into a time based fund-of-fund with a target date. 80% of the 529 went to this Vanguard Target Enrollment 2024/2025 Portfolio, which does a portfolio allocation based on a need to use the funds in 2024/2025.
The returns so far are a lot lower than what was in index funds, but I’m hoping that lower return buys a lot more stability for the next 3 years. I’m not as concerned about chasing the highest returning funds. The funds thus far has grown to $300k since making regular monthly contributions starting in 2006, and if more is needed, I could dip into other sources. Just want more predictability now that we are getting closer to needing to use it.
Same idea could be said about my holdings if my goals are early retirement.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=plm]21.65% YTD is very good until you see that sp500 is doing 22.56% But its all relative, 21.56% is better than what I’m doing so far. At least I’m no longer negative like I was back in March.
I just don’t have any control of my account. Being a long term holder I don’t want to sell anything and pay the taxes on the gains. So only tiny changes from buying different stocks with the dividend payouts. So I’m a passive investor but not with an index fund.[/quote]
I think long term I can’t beat the indexes. But even so, I don’t think I want to camp out in just one or a few indexes. Indexes are great when the markets are moving up. But I’m trying to move stuff so it’s more balanced.. That said, some of my other funds have a large overlap with what’s inside the index funds.
Like some of the “income” funds invest mainly in dividend paying stock that also happens to be part of the S&P500 index or others. So my understanding is that one got to be careful that even if your goal was to allocate away from what’s contained in index funds, you got to make sure what you pick up doesn’t end up picking some of the same stocks.
Fidelity contrafund is similar, and does investments in a lot of high flyers. Contrafund is pretty popular among Fidelity 401k plans, along with the Magellan funds, which I think are now closed.
So in my 401k I have allocations to contrafunds, but since there’s so much overlap with some index funds, I’m light on indexes in those 401k accounts…I’m in a unique situation that I negotiated with Charles Schwab, so I can pretty much buy any Vanguard fund inside Charles Schwab and they’ll waive all fees they normally charge for funds not theirs….I wasn’t able to get them to waive the fees for Fidelity funds. The issue is Schwab doesn’t have access to Vanguard voyager class shares. So that’s why I still keep around a Vanguard accounts along with Fidelity and Schwab.
I guess things matter less now that everything is trying to move to an ETF. and all three are $0 commission.
CoronitaParticipantFinally got around to doing my august numbers. I’m not doing as well this year versus last. I guess I went too conservative too early. Not the 50-60% the rest of you folks are getting… Oof
Ytd 21.65%, mainly due to lucky bets with Pfizer and Fuji Films and horseshit speculation on Avigan will be useful in Asia the fight against COVID that someone talked about awhile ago among my circle of friends. It’s a crapshoot, who knows. same folks speculated on Moderna before it took off, which I missed the boat…(or I should say, I got out of the boat way too early, like always) …indexes are ok. I’m getting crushed by PG&E… Things have slowed down quite a bit. 3 months prior is 3% . 1 month prior was @ 0.96% I’m at 43% cash/mm right now at the moment. probably also not a good decision.Probably will end up negative in Sept, knowing me
CoronitaParticipantSpeaking of sunscreen…
CoronitaParticipant[quote=sdrealtor][quote=Coronita][quote=sdrealtor]I use 30 and at most 50. I like the spray on. It is not cost effective but fast easy and not sticky or greasy at all[/quote]
the spray on is great for arms and legs not so great for face.
Watch out for the recalls on some sprays. some ended up being carcinogen…Oh the irony…
the one I like are the sunblock sticks that are like rollon deodorant.[/quote]
spray on hand, rub on face :)[/quote]
But then you’re defeating the purpose of an aerosol designed and optimized for quick and ease of us, at the expense of actual sun block content…
It’s like spray paint in the rattle can. You pay a lot for a very tiny amount of paint that is pressurized so that it’s easier to coat something quickly without needing to use a brush….You wouldn’t take the spray can, spray it into a cup, and then get out a brush and brush it in something you wanted to paint….if you were gonna do that, you’d just buy a pint of the paint in a normal can, which costs less and provides a lot more…
hey that gives me an idea. Maybe sell sunblock that’s extremely liquidity so that it can be sprayed with a spray gun or air compressor so to a user, it would be like taking a shower. You could setup a booth at the entrance to a hiking excursion, and charge like $1-2 for it.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]I use 30 and at most 50. I like the spray on. It is not cost effective but fast easy and not sticky or greasy at all[/quote]
the spray on is great for arms and legs not so great for face.
Watch out for the recalls on some sprays. some ended up being carcinogen…Oh the irony…
the one I like are the sunblock sticks that are like rollon deodorant.
CoronitaParticipantFun fact. If you want to prevent glasses/goggles/helmets from fogging, don’t buy one of those anti-fog sprays. That thing stings if it gets in your eyes too.
A easier solution is use J&J no-more-tear body wash or shampoo. Light coating will prevent helmets goggles from fogging and if it runs, it won’t sting if it gets in your eyes. Works well too if you wear a mask for the pandemic and your sunglasses/regular glasses fog up
CoronitaParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]I despise sunscreen. I’d prefer to wrap myself in a keffiyeh and hat, wear long sleeves and pants.
I just feel like a greasy baking piece of meat with sunscreen.
Great deals on the Tilley ltm6 at rei right now.[/quote]
I hate sunscreen too. But I use it when I hike when a hat won’t cover.. Mainly arms legs neck ears.
The worst was putting sunscreen on your face and then wearing a helmet…
I was at a race event and while I was outside, I forgot and made the mistake of putting on sunscreen on my face. Then when it was my run group’s turn, I put my helmet on. While I was on course for a practice lap, the damn sunscreen mixed with sweat started to ooze from my forehead and dripped into my eyes. That sunscreen burned like a motherf***r…And I had to finish the rest of the course with like one eye shut.. Fortunately, it was only a practice lap that and not a timed/competition lap. That would have sucked. Oh well, it wasn’t the weirdest thing that happened on course, and it certainly won’t be the last. There was one time a seagullgot in the way of my was going to smack into my windshield…I had to drive off course to avoid the seagull….
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